The US Census Bureau thread

[mrnyc]

here is some digested and interesting census results news for cleveland:



Cleveland: growing faster than the national average, and shrinking

By Ken Prendergast / September 1, 2021



In the simpler days of Census data, population numbers for a given metro area either went up or down in lockstep with that region’s economic output. There were few wrinkles in the data to pull apart and analyze. Now, there’s tons of data to grapple with, offering multiple story lines.

...

After a hiatus in 2020, downtown was back in power in 2021, accounting for one-third of all apartment demand in Greater Cleveland.


more:
https://neo-trans.blog/2021/09/01/cl...and-shrinking/



Cleveland’s “best of times and worst of times” is evident in this map showing population change in each Census tract during the 2010s.
Cleveland accounted for the fastest growing and some of the fastest declining Census tracts (Cuyahoga County GIS).

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

here is some digested and interesting census results news for cleveland:



Cleveland: growing faster than the national average, and shrinking

By Ken Prendergast / September 1, 2021



In the simpler days of Census data, population numbers for a given metro area either went up or down in lockstep with that region’s economic output. There were few wrinkles in the data to pull apart and analyze. Now, there’s tons of data to grapple with, offering multiple story lines.

...

After a hiatus in 2020, downtown was back in power in 2021, accounting for one-third of all apartment demand in Greater Cleveland.


more:
https://neo-trans.blog/2021/09/01/cl...and-shrinking/



Cleveland’s “best of times and worst of times” is evident in this map showing population change in each Census tract during the 2010s.
Cleveland accounted for the fastest growing and some of the fastest declining Census tracts (Cuyahoga County GIS).

Seems similar to Chicago? Poorer black neighborhoods emptying, downtown/near downtown areas getting new (usually more affluent and white) residents and developments...Maybe Hispanics and possibly Asians moving into a few neighborhoods as well...

[C.]

Census 2021 population estimates for States has been published today:

Read all about it here: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...estimates.html

[C.]

‘Stunning’: US population grew at slowest pace on record in 2021
COVID pandemic, decreased migration and fewer births among reasons for low population growth, US Census Bureau says.

The population of the United States grew more slowly in 2021 than in any year on record, the US Census Bureau has reported, pointing to the coronavirus pandemic, economic shutdowns, and reductions in migration and births as key factors.

The US population grew by about 393,000 in 2021, an historic low of 0.1 percent, according to new estimates released by the Census Bureau on Tuesday.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...record-in-2021


Big losses for NYS. A decline of -319,020 or -1.6% Expecting next year that will be reserved due to people coming back after the worst of the pandemic.

[chimpskibot]

Originally Posted by C.

‘Stunning’: US population grew at slowest pace on record in 2021
COVID pandemic, decreased migration and fewer births among reasons for low population growth, US Census Bureau says.

The population of the United States grew more slowly in 2021 than in any year on record, the US Census Bureau has reported, pointing to the coronavirus pandemic, economic shutdowns, and reductions in migration and births as key factors.

The US population grew by about 393,000 in 2021, an historic low of 0.1 percent, according to new estimates released by the Census Bureau on Tuesday.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...record-in-2021


Big losses for NYS. A decline of -319,020 or -1.6% Expecting next year that will be reserved due to people coming back after the worst of the pandemic.

I think it is doubtful the inflows in NYC will stem outflows from upstate and NY metro area. Similar with Chicago. Large cities and their metros are growing, the hinterlands not so much.

[C.]

Originally Posted by chimpskibot

Large cities and their metros are growing, the hinterlands not so much.

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by C.

‘Stunning’: US population grew at slowest pace on record in 2021
COVID pandemic, decreased migration and fewer births among reasons for low population growth, US Census Bureau says.

The population of the United States grew more slowly in 2021 than in any year on record, the US Census Bureau has reported, pointing to the coronavirus pandemic, economic shutdowns, and reductions in migration and births as key factors.

The US population grew by about 393,000 in 2021, an historic low of 0.1 percent, according to new estimates released by the Census Bureau on Tuesday.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...record-in-2021


Big losses for NYS. A decline of -319,020 or -1.6% Expecting next year that will be reserved due to people coming back after the worst of the pandemic.

I assume the lack of immigration will hurt a lot of cities that are normally gateways and also normally have net negative domestic migration rates (NYC, LA, Miami). Are there any numbers anywhere on how much immigration dropped?

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by dave8721

I assume the lack of immigration will hurt a lot of cities that are normally gateways and also normally have net negative domestic migration rates (NYC, LA, Miami). Are there any numbers anywhere on how much immigration dropped?

The Census article states: "All 50 states and the District of Columbia saw positive net international migration. Florida (38,590), Texas (27,185) and New York (18,307) had the largest population gains from net international migration."

The numbers seem low for places like NY, and California is not even listed in the top 3. If the numbers are accurate, they would signal a virtual collapse in international migration to the US.

[The North One]

Census undercounted Detroit neighborhoods by as much as 8.1% in 2020, researchers say

Detroit's population was likely undercounted by 8.1% in certain neighborhoods during the 2020 Census, new research from the University of Michigan and Wayne State University showed, a problem that has ramifications for how much funding the city can get in certain federal programs.

If that pattern holds true across the city, researchers say, the population could have been undercounted by "tens of thousands" of people.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...ay/8923819002/

[edale]

Originally Posted by The North One

Census undercounted Detroit neighborhoods by as much as 8.1% in 2020, researchers say



https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...ay/8923819002/

Did anyone challenge the validity of NYC's results since they were so much higher than the 2019 estimate? Seems like census results are only called into question when people don't like the numbers.

It wouldn't surprise me if there was a bit of an undercount in Detroit. When over half of the city's residents can't be bothered to fill out the census themselves and you have to rely on door knocking and what not...yeah, probably not going to get the best results. But I doubt this was some nefarious plot to undercount Detroit, and I doubt the overall miscount is substantial.

Cincinnati has challenged census results in the past, and it didn't result in the good news revision the city was hoping for. The city challenged the 2005 estimates and got those numbers revised upward, only to find that the 2010 census basically confirmed that initial estimates were correct. Launching a census challenge is largely a waste of time, and Detroit should focus its attention and resources on more productive things.

[Steely Dan]

detroit might very well have been undercounted.

i suspect many (most?) big messy US cities with large areas of high poverty probably are.

but this line from the article was pretty damn silly:

Luke Shaefer, professor of public policy at UM and director of the university's Poverty Solutions initiative, noted that 2019 Census estimates put the city at roughly 670,000 people. Such a decline was "anomalous and implausible," according to the report.

if Mr. Shaefer thinks a drop of 30,000 people from census estimate to census count is "anomalous and implausible", then i would love to hear what he thought of chicago's 2010 census result which came in ~155,000 people lower than the CB's 2009 estimate.

the fact is, the CB has a pretty horrible track record of accurately estimating the populations of rustbelt cities, especially when they're 9 years out from the last official count. these kinds discrepancies are hardly "anomalous" at all. people who put any faith at all into 9 years stale census estimates are grossly misguided.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

if Mr. Shaefer thinks a drop of 30,000 people from census estimate to census count is "anomalous and implausible", then i would love to hear what he thought of chicago's 2010 census result which came in ~155,000 people lower than the CB's 2009 estimate.

the fact is, the CB has a pretty horrible track record of accurately estimating the populations of rustbelt cities, especially when they're 9 years out from the last official count. these kinds discrepancies are hardly "anomalous" at all. people who put any faith at all into 9 years stale census estimates are grossly misguided.

And Detroit's 2009 estimate was about 200,000 over its 2010 census count.

[Steely Dan]

^ damn, you're right.

but now a discrepancy of only 30K is "anomalous and implausible"?

give me a break.

[mhays]

I'm surprised the immigration numbers were so high with the borders severely restricted. My impression was that legal migration would be basically zero but it wasn't.

[tablemtn]

It feels like California has priced itself out of the market to a large degree. The last round of Census estimates put California at a decline of 262,000 people between 2020 and 2021:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...estimates.html

But this has had no actual downward effect on Californian real estate prices or rents, so, the decline will probably continue until those factors change - if they ever do.

[badrunner]

Cool graphic. One thing that really stands out is how many of the western frontier states had such a high foreign born % in the 1800s, higher than the traditional ports of entry on the east coast (though obviously not in raw numbers).

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by badrunner

Cool graphic. One thing that really stands out is how many of the western frontier states had such a high foreign born % in the 1800s, higher than the traditional ports of entry on the east coast (though obviously not in raw numbers).

IIRC, Montana was something like 30% Chinese at one point in the 19th century.

The Western U.S. would have looked a lot different demographically if the U.S. had let Chinese women immigrate as much as men had during that era. Once the Chinese Exclusion Act was passed, the large existing Chinese immigrant population mostly died out with no descendants.

[Yuri]

2021 numbers for vital statistics in the US are out:

------------ Births ----- Deaths

2000 --- 4,058,814 --- 2,403,351

2007 --- 4,316,234 --- 2,423,712

2019 --- 3,747,540 --- 2,854,858

2020 --- 3,613,647 --- 3,389,100

2021 --- 3,600,000 --- 3,428,549

Excess deathsby Covid is about 1 million in 2020-2021. 2022 is not looking promising and the US is heading for at least 3.2 million or more, way above 2019.

It's crazy to think that as late as 2007, the US was registering a 1.9 million natural growth. In 2021, it fell to 180k. Getting very close to negative terrain.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

2021 numbers for vital statistics in the US are out:

------------ Births ----- Deaths

2000 --- 4,058,814 --- 2,403,351

2007 --- 4,316,234 --- 2,423,712

2019 --- 3,747,540 --- 2,854,858

2020 --- 3,613,647 --- 3,389,100

2021 --- 3,600,000 --- 3,428,549

Excess deathsby Covid is about 1 million in 2020-2021. 2022 is not looking promising and the US is heading for at least 3.2 million or more, way above 2019.

It's crazy to think that as late as 2007, the US was registering a 1.9 million natural growth. In 2021, it fell to 180k. Getting very close to negative terrain.

When baselining against the number of deaths in 2019, the excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 appears to be 90% COVID related. Once the pandemic cools off, that should go back down.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

When baselining agains the number of deaths in 2019, the excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 appears to be 90% COVID related. Once the pandemic cools off, that should go back down.

Indeed, but I believe 2022 is compromised already.

And back to normal means the late 2010’s, with births collapsing and deaths surging. I guess we have a good chance to see negative natural growth in the US in this decade.