AUSTIN | Project Updates Thread Part II - Page 115

GoldenBoot · #1 Posted **Jan 2, 2016, 11:09 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by paul78701

I'd add Waller Park Place to that list.

I wouldn't. Why?

#1 The Austonian is built (obviously)
#2 The Independent has financing and more than 95% reserved (30+% have turned into contracts). Plus, site preparation work has already commenced.

Waller is not financed, no hotel partner, pre-leasing activity has yet to commence on the rental office, retail and residential spaces, and no pre-sales activity has begun on the for sale condo component. Doesn't bode well...at least it does not look good for the project and the development team. Hey, it still might work...and I would be pleasantly surprised and welcome it.

Even though I love the design, 7th & Colorado is a concept at the moment (just like Waller at this stage). The Nelsen Partners' design is only be one of several in which UT will consider. I would be, however, interested in which development partner commissioned Nelsen's work/proposal AND what the other proposals may produce.

And if 7th & Colorado does come to fruition, it will probably not be delivered until 2020 or 2021 (as UT will have to move into their new tower prior to anything being done with this site).

wwmiv · #2 Posted **Jan 3, 2016, 7:11 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

And if 7th & Colorado does come to fruition, it will probably not be delivered until 2020 or 2021 (as UT will have to move into their new tower prior to anything being done with this site).

I agree with you, but here's the key difference:

You seem to think that's really all that far off, when it really isn't from a development perspective. It's about this far out, historically, in Austin, where we start getting this kind of information about developments (remember that discussion from a developer about Austin being a very "over announced" city for projects, this is the same thing). From there for about a year and a half we get a steadily more heavy drip of information until we get a concrete proposal. It takes 6 months to a year to get fully financed and then another 6 months to a year (there's often overlap between these last two things, esp. with smarter developers with stronger histories) to walk through the permitting process (this is a problem that needs to be solved, fwiw). And then a year to a year and a half or even two years of construction for a large project.

In total, if we assume the longer lengths for all these things for this project, that's 5 and a half years from now (summer 2021 delivery). At the minimum project delivery for a project of this scale (let's assume similar alternative proposals, since bids are often along the same lines since the principal - UT - likely has certain requests that this bid was made in consideration of) knowing where we are in the process (only at bids) only shortens the time frame by a year to 4 and a half years for a summer 2020 delivery. So I really think you hit the nail on the head here.

paul78701 · #3 Posted **Jan 3, 2016, 5:01 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by wwmiv

I agree with you, but here's the key difference:

You seem to think that's really all that far off, when it really isn't from a development perspective. It's about this far out, historically, in Austin, where we start getting this kind of information about developments (remember that discussion from a developer about Austin being a very "over announced" city for projects, this is the same thing). From there for about a year and a half we get a steadily more heavy drip of information until we get a concrete proposal. It takes 6 months to a year to get fully financed and then another 6 months to a year (there's often overlap between these last two things, esp. with smarter developers with stronger histories) to walk through the permitting process (this is a problem that needs to be solved, fwiw). And then a year to a year and a half or even two years of construction for a large project.

In total, if we assume the longer lengths for all these things for this project, that's 5 and a half years from now (summer 2021 delivery). At the minimum project delivery for a project of this scale (let's assume similar alternative proposals, since bids are often along the same lines since the principal - UT - likely has certain requests that this bid was made in consideration of) knowing where we are in the process (only at bids) only shortens the time frame by a year to 4 and a half years for a summer 2020 delivery. So I really think you hit the nail on the head here.

You also hit the nail on the head. These project are typically huge, complicated, expensive, etc, etc, endeavors. They take a lot of effort and time to put together. There is too much "Negative Nancy" syndrome around here it seems. So often someone on this forum calls a project dead or claims that it won't happen without any concrete knowledge of the process or what is going on. Or because it doesn't meet an arbitrary deadline that they have in their head. Or because it's not a part of this development cycle (whatever that really means). Or whatever other anecdotal thing that they deem important. I'm not aware of anybody on this forum who has managed such a project and has any real knowledge of what goes into them. So some of the things I see written here confounds me.

A project on this UT site is going to happen. Whether it's this building or not, nobody here has any idea. Waller Park Place is likely going to be built. ZaZa is likely going to be built. The Magellan building will likely be built. Etc. Hell, even the 416 Congress hotel has come back to life. Up until this point, I haven't seen anybody cite any *actual* sources or give any *concrete* evidence that these buildings won't be breaking ground.

Austin is one of, if not the most prosperous city in the country right now. It's not 2008 anymore either. These buildings are getting built. Some of them may change in scope before any holes are dug, but there are few of these projects being outright canceled.

Why so much negativity?

drummer · #4 Posted **Jan 3, 2016, 12:31 AM**

Ha, I like that Fairmont has now become a verb associated with awesome renderings and lame results...

wwmiv · #5 Posted **Jan 3, 2016, 1:32 AM**

We dont have any results yet!

lzppjb · #6 Posted **Jan 3, 2016, 3:16 AM**

Awesome! Hope it comes true.

KevinFromTexas · #7 Posted **Jan 3, 2016, 4:51 AM**

I don't know that it's landmark status (unless it is really tall) - or even iconic. It is good, don't get me wrong, but it reminds me a lot of the stuff in South Florida. This building would fit right in in Miami for example.

wwmiv · #8 Posted **Jan 3, 2016, 6:48 AM**

No, this would fit better in Atlanta. It's beautiful and tall, too.

KevinFromTexas · #9 Posted **Jan 3, 2016, 6:52 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by wwmiv

No, this would fit better in Atlanta. It's beautiful and tall, too.

Yeah, I can see that. Especially in Buckhead.

wwmiv · #10 Posted **Jan 3, 2016, 6:54 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

Yeah, I can see that. Especially in Buckhead.

Yep.

Urbannizer · #11 Posted **Jan 3, 2016, 10:06 PM**

Just created a thread for the 10 Tallest Projects U/C in Texas. Currently Austin has 3 projects listed, though that will change soon!

ILUVSAT · #12 Posted **Jan 3, 2016, 10:39 PM**

Out of curiosity, what is the percent chance if an announced project will be completed by the same developer on a particular site as the one who initially announced it?

KevinFromTexas · #13 Posted **Jan 3, 2016, 11:42 PM**

I will say one thing. Developers never announce that they're cancelling a project. They may say something that signals to some that that's exactly what is happening, but they'll never come out and say they're cancelling. The reason is of course they're always hoping for an investment partner to come along and infuse their project with money. That's why you see those long assumed dead projects coming back to life. Projects aren't cancelled - they're shelved or mothballed, and then eventually abandoned if the market changes. At that point one of the two things might happen. One: the developer regroups and plans something different to satisfy the market changes. In that case the project might not resemble the original one in design, maybe even in size since a hotel market might be stronger than an office market for example. Two: they sell the land.

Anyway, I've learned over the years to take each announcement with a grain of salt. I've been surprised by how much has been built, but I never wanted to get my hopes up on something only to be let down.

drummer · #14 Posted **Jan 4, 2016, 12:00 AM**

An announcement to cancel a project doesn't prove good for business in any case. They'd rather save face and move quickly onto the next thing.

deerhoof · #15 Posted **Jan 4, 2016, 11:20 PM**

I went by the Nelsen Partners office and asked for more information about the renderings. Mainly spoke with receptionist who was willing to share information. I asked if it was a concept rendering and whether it is happening or not. She replied that it is happening. I asked about a height and she started referring to floors (obviously i wanted feet) and some other person passed so the receptionist asked her and she responded she didn't know but it went back and forth many times on how tall it should be. I asked what type of building and she said it would be retail at bottom with office in middle and residential at top. I asked when it would start, she said she wasn't sure so she asked another worker who was passing and he was being vague, saying he didn't know for sure because there were still three and they haven't decided. I don't know exactly what he meant, but my impression is that UT has three developers that are interested in building it and they have yet to decide on who yet. Here are some better quality pictures of the renderings that I took while there.

drummer · #16 Posted **Jan 4, 2016, 11:32 PM**

I like this one, too. I hope it happens.

wwmiv · #17 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 12:15 AM**

That actually makes me feel like this one or something like it is pretty likely.

KevinFromTexas · #18 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 12:58 AM**

It looks like 43 floors judging from the rendering on the bottom. It looks like the top 13 floors are residential.

Most office floors these days are around 14 feet floor-to-floor. So that would come out to 420 feet. Most condo floor-to-floor heights are 11 to 16 feet, with the high end being the penthouse floors. The Austonian's floors are 11 to 12 feet. They actually alternate from floor to floor. The top 13 floors are residential, which I'm guessing is condos. That should add 156 feet. Then I would add 12 feet for the ground floor and penthouse levels. So that would be 588 feet total without considering the crown. The crown looks like it's about 30 feet tall. So that would bring it to 618 feet. Still, from the rendering it looks taller than that. I was guessing at least 650 and more like 670 feet judging from the other buildings. One American Center is 401 feet. 300 West Sixth is 336 feet, and the Chase Bank Tower is 330 feet, and it easily appears to be double their height.

urbancore · #19 Posted **Jan 6, 2016, 4:57 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

It looks like 43 floors judging from the rendering on the bottom. It looks like the top 13 floors are residential.

Most office floors these days are around 14 feet floor-to-floor. So that would come out to 420 feet. Most condo floor-to-floor heights are 11 to 16 feet, with the high end being the penthouse floors. The Austonian's floors are 11 to 12 feet. They actually alternate from floor to floor. The top 13 floors are residential, which I'm guessing is condos. That should add 156 feet. Then I would add 12 feet for the ground floor and penthouse levels. So that would be 588 feet total without considering the crown. The crown looks like it's about 30 feet tall. So that would bring it to 618 feet. Still, from the rendering it looks taller than that. I was guessing at least 650 and more like 670 feet judging from the other buildings. One American Center is 401 feet. 300 West Sixth is 336 feet, and the Chase Bank Tower is 330 feet, and it easily appears to be double their height.

I'm surprised that the residential top 13 floors don't show any balconies. Maybe they are on the other side of the building in this rendering.....or maybe they are the bottom floors. It looks like those might be balconies. I think it would be unwise to build a building without them. What are your thoughts?

GoldenBoot · #20 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 1:57 AM**

This looks to be between 45 and 50 stories (more like 47). It's hard to tell how many actual levels there are at the lowest levels of the tower. In any case, this is an impressive building.

I agree with Kevin that this tower seems to be pushing the 700' mark (especially when including the crown - which seems to be at least the equivalent of 3-4 additional "levels."