DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[TakeFive]

No, I don't want to talk — or even cars

Think not being able to see the forest for the trees.

Somebody that drops by the forum is highly fond of Singapore

Singapore has neither a — problem nor a drug problem. Is Singapore liberal or conservative? I have no clue. That's your baseline for what it is possible

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Originally Posted by bunt_q

I do not believe there is an opportunity for moderate discourse on that issue, or many other issues, now that the Democratic Party has followed what the Republican Party did two decades earlier. I just don't bother with discourse anymore. And I quietly hope that sitting in the middle, hiding, eventually results in each extreme eviscerating the other, before I am eviscerated in the crossfire. (Whether that is political evisceration, or eventually real-world evisceration, I will leave to science fiction.)

The Right scares me; the left irritates me no end
Here I am stuck in the middle.

Clowns to the left of me; Jokers to the right
Here I am stuck in the middle with you

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by bobg

I for one think we should make assault weapons mandatory in preparation for the real war on cars. The war that takes place when Elon Musk activates skynet so it can coordinate a Tesla FSD attack on all of humanity as revenge for us no longer using his favorite toy twitter.

But I realize that's just the rational centrist in me, and it would never fly in today's political climate.

Wait, doesn't George Soros control the launch codes for skynet?

At least machine domination/slaughter of humanity provides a clear, workable solution to America's gender crisis.

[TakeFive]

Priceless

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Wait, doesn't George Soros control the launch codes for skynet?

At least machine domination/slaughter of humanity provides a clear, workable solution to America's gender crisis.

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You get what you tolerate

Originally Posted by Brainpathology

If you want to sit down and calmly discuss concerns over tea with Denethor as he screams slobbering from the tops of the walls for everyone to flee, fine, good luck to you.

You likely couldn't care less about the number of conventions/conferences held in downtown Denver - Understandable. The Downtown Denver Partnership has a very different point of view. I can assure you that Scottsdale is happy to absorb whatever conference business passes on Denver. In Season, when I do rideshare, I meet people from all over the Americas and the World. It's fascinating, it's fun and I make some money.

Not familiar with your neighborhood but if you survey the landscape larger urban centers are heading in the Wrong Direction. Define it however you wish but those are the facts.

BTW, what you tolerate is an enforcement problem.

[TakeFive]

Sounds like Tulsa is doing well

Originally Posted by BG918

Same chances the Tabor 2 tower gets built and/or the Rockies win the World Series.

The new BMX Headquarters looks cool. The under construction SANTA FE SQUARE looks to be a really nice mixed-use development. City doing city stuff including a new museum. Tulsa even getting its own Diverging Diamond Interchange. Tulsa even have a share of Homeless - over 1,100.

[Brainpathology]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Priceless


----------------------------------

You get what you tolerate

You likely couldn't care less about the number of conventions/conferences held in downtown Denver - Understandable. The Downtown Denver Partnership has a very different point of view. I can assure you that Scottsdale is happy to absorb whatever conference business passes on Denver. In Season, when I do rideshare, I meet people from all over the Americas and the World. It's fascinating, it's fun and I make some money.

Not familiar with your neighborhood but if you survey the landscape larger urban centers are heading in the Wrong Direction. Define it however you wish but those are the facts.

BTW, what you tolerate is an enforcement problem.

nm. you're right.. I 100% said I didn't care.

[mr1138]

Originally Posted by mojiferous

And maybe that is the point - you know our mods are not strict and have let this fly for a long time. I'm sure a lot of them are operating in the spirit of free discourse - that you have the right to speak your mind and say what you want to say even if it strays into trollish behavior. And by constantly being right on the edge of acceptable and trollish you may be able to do three things to an urbanist forum:
1. Sow discord.
2. Be annoying enough to cause people to leave.
3. Cause enough digression and off-topic discussion to derail pro-growth organizing and discussion (have you noticed all of these trolls haaaate new construction and density? remember our old trolls who were banned for things like loving Pueblo too much?)

To be honest, we need less of whatever this is and more people like Take 5 - I may disagree with his data analysis and his opinion on the suburbs, but at least he keeps most of his posts relevant and has opinions about solutions and causes of issues. He posts often and debates his views without insulting everyone and everything.

I would argue that one does not need to hurl insults in order to engage in trolling behavior, and that both of the forum members that you are discussing here are equally guilty of "being right on the edge of acceptable and trollish." Both of these forum members check all three boxes you mentioned, and both often succeed in derailing the pro-growth discussion.

Case and point - just look at the last page of discussion here. We have one forum member who repeatedly and successfully goads others into having to defend their (usually very well-reasoned) positions by offering up increasingly absurd statements to the contrary until they get exactly what they want - e.g. "Nevermind, I don't want to have this conversation with you - you win"

There's a very good reason I choose not to engage with this person. A good devil's advocate can help foster conversation. Somebody who merely acts as an unceasing contrarian shuts good conversation down.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by mr1138

Case and point - just look at the last page of discussion here. We have one forum member who repeatedly and successfully goads others into having to defend their (usually very well-reasoned) positions by offering up increasingly absurd statements to the contrary until they get exactly what they want - e.g. "Nevermind, I don't want to have this conversation with you - you win"

There's a very good reason I choose not to engage with this person. A good devil's advocate can help foster conversation. Somebody who merely acts as an unceasing contrarian shuts good conversation down.

The fact that I am not even sure who you are talking about (is it me?) makes me think you’re just a bit overly sensitive. Or more likely, one of those people on the relative extremes who really just wants everybody to agree with you and who has no real appetite for debate.

This is a forum where most people agree on most things; at least, when we stay on topic. That can easily make disagreement come off as “an unceasing contrarian.” What I hear you saying is “my way or the highway.”

[TakeFive]

Heh... How you doing up there in your new digs anyway

Originally Posted by Brainpathology

nm. you're right.. I 100% said I didn't care.

For the longest time I've been a BIG fan of conventions and tourism in general due to the economic benefits. But in reality most people don't pay it any mind. I mean it's not a requirement.

So when I assumed you were among the great majority of those who paid no attention instead of the minority where I hang, it wasn't intended to be an insult. But now that I know you belong to my small crowd of convention lovers I'll be sure to remember.

Just to clarify in case it's not clear and you didn't read it as intended - in my 1st and last statements my use of "you" was intended as an impersonal pronoun and not meant for you personally. In hindsight I'm not sure the flow of my thoughts was the best.

--------------------------

Originally Posted by bunt_q

The fact that I am not even sure who you are talking about (is it me?) makes me think you’re just a bit overly sensitive. Or more likely, one of those people on the relative extremes who really just wants everybody to agree with you and who has no real appetite for debate.

This is a forum where most people agree on most things; at least, when we stay on topic. That can easily make disagreement come off as “an unceasing contrarian.” What I hear you saying is “my way or the highway.”

I think he was talking about me.

[TakeFive]

Moving Right Along

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

What are the chances that the Dikeous actually build a 17 story office tower in Golden Triangle?

It's seems eerily quiet and I'm beginning to wonder if there will be any groundbreakings in the 2nd half of the year in the city center area (not counting affordable housing or Cherry Creek).

What's strange is that the stock and bond markets are doing well. But there is concern for many RE investments and the normally important bank lending for construction/RE loans is a bit stressed. Private Equity stands ready I've heard but the rates are a little dicey.

Surely there will be at least one or two more nice projects break ground?

Any guesses?

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mojiferous

...And we should not count on a "Manhattan Project for climate change" for this. There is no world where you can engineer and build a massive water delivery system for even one city in less than a decade. Because you need more than just the delivery mechanism, you will also need to build storage and treatment and handle interconnections for the new water. Regulatory speedbumps, like the environmental impact, are way down the process after you've already determined how and where you're building the infrastructure. Acquiring the land alone will take forever...

Friend, I have been all around the world and I have seen with my own two eyes most countries doing things of far greater scale than a simple water pipeline that's 600 miles long. China could literally build and complete something like that in 30 days. It's not an exaggeration. If you think it is an exaggeration, go travel to some of these places and see with your own eyes what industrializing countries are accomplishing, it's absolutely astonishing, overwhelming, and inspiring. What took us 150 years, they're doing now in less than 20. They have the will, we don't, that's the only difference. Civilizations have been re-routing water since the dawn of....civilizations.

PS: congress could very easily vote to disregard an EIS for a special project. That could be a part of the package. Better yet, FEMA could declare a disaster under existing rules exempting them from EPA interference...there's many ways to get this done but if there's no will, you're right there's no way.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

My primary reason for posting this is that when Greystar makes a move like this people notice.

Cookies and Cream?

My secondary reason for posting this is I knew laniroj would be interested (although who knows with him from day to day? )

This is very interesting, but are we just believing Greystar is going to cap rent growth arbitrarily? Sounds like a headline to me. Are they recording a rent covenant or use restriction to ensure rent is capped at CPI?! Methinks not...but hey I'm all for it if they are building workforce housing - let them say whatever they want!

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by twister244

...Climate change is going to be a problem for everyone. Denver's silver lining is they are closer to the source of water compared to everyone downstream. So if push comes to shove, Denver will probably be ok. Phoenix on the other hand? I wouldn't invest in that city.....

Phoenix is securing it's importance on the national pecking order by way of all the chip plants they have garnered the last several years. That City may likely become a top national strategic priority once the $50 or so billion of chip investment is finished. That alone will probably secure their water needs forever.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Moving Right Along

It's seems eerily quiet and I'm beginning to wonder if there will be any groundbreakings in the 2nd half of the year in the city center area (not counting affordable housing or Cherry Creek).

What's strange is that the stock and bond markets are doing well. But there is concern for many RE investments and the normally important bank lending for construction/RE loans is a bit stressed. Private Equity stands ready I've heard but the rates are a little dicey.

Surely there will be at least one or two more nice projects break ground?

Any guesses?

Debt and equity have generally dried up. Party's over. Get your popcorn and watch for the few groundbreakings we get the next few years. One popcorn kernel per project...gotta make it last!

Banks generally have a cash crunch, perceived or actual, and equity is waiting for the "shoe to drop" in each RE sector so they can scoop up fantastic deals. Why develop to a 7-8% yield (or even a 10% yield) when you can takeover a bank for free or buy Class A office towers for 40% of their pre-pandemic values? The opportunity to make big money is coming to a theater near you very soon for the private equity folks.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Friend, I have been all around the world and I have seen with my own two eyes most countries doing things of far greater scale than a simple water pipeline that's 600 miles long. China could literally build and complete something like that in 30 days. It's not an exaggeration. If you think it is an exaggeration, go travel to some of these places and see with your own eyes what industrializing countries are accomplishing, it's absolutely astonishing, overwhelming, and inspiring. What took us 150 years, they're doing now in less than 20. They have the will, we don't, that's the only difference. Civilizations have been re-routing water since the dawn of....civilizations.

PS: congress could very easily vote to disregard an EIS for a special project. That could be a part of the package. Better yet, FEMA could declare a disaster under existing rules exempting them from EPA interference...there's many ways to get this done but if there's no will, you're right there's no way.

Not disagreeing with you at all in terms of the impacts of process. But we did it that way for decades. And the general consensus now is that the result was a lot of marginalized communities getting absolutely f'ed. Pretty sure what we see China doing is exactly the same as what we did in the 50s and 60s. No matter the cost (real project cost, time cost, or human cost), I do not see a lot of appetite to go back to that way of doing business.

That said, the EIS is not what holds up water pipelines across the Great Plains. Pumping cost does that. I get pitched/asked to help with somebody wanting to do that (some more credible than others) every few years, and the outcome is always the same - municipal water consumption will have to be a hell of a lot more expensive than it is today for that to make sense. Drying up fields makes more financial sense. (Other things that make more financial sense: buying more bombs for Ukraine so we can get back to growing grain there, where grain wants to grow.)

[SirLucasTheGreat]

BusinessDen was reporting earlier that the lender may take the keys to the Wells Fargo Center. Is there any chance that these office towers get demolished or are they just going to be resold at a massive loss to the lender?

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

BusinessDen was reporting earlier that the lender may take the keys to the Wells Fargo Center. Is there any chance that these office towers get demolished or are they just going to be resold at a massive loss to the lender?

Brookfield, MetLife Modify $134M Republic Plaza Loan To Remove It From Default
July 5, 2023 By Robert Davis, Bisnow Denver

Brookfield Properties and MetLife Insurance extended the term on the $134M loan against downtown Denver’s 56-story Republic Plaza office space until March 2026 and have effectively removed it from default, a spokesperson for the company told Bisnow.

“We remain deeply committed to Downtown Denver and look forward to sharing additional positive momentum for Republic Plaza soon,” Brookfield Executive Vice President David Sternberg said in a statement.

I think the City of Denver is looking at grabbing a chunk of space in this building. Who knows with the WF Center?

Originally Posted by laniroj

Debt and equity have generally dried up. Party's over. Get your popcorn and watch for the few groundbreakings we get the next few years. One popcorn kernel per project...gotta make it last!

If memory serves the Comptroller of the Currency 'suggested' that lenders and owners try to work something out (extend and pretend). In some cases a 40% discount from yesterday's inflated values may not be that much of a bargain.

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Not disagreeing with you at all in terms of the impacts of process. But we did it that way for decades. And the general consensus now is that the result was a lot of marginalized communities getting absolutely f'ed. Pretty sure what we see China doing is exactly the same as what we did in the 50s and 60s. No matter the cost (real project cost, time cost, or human cost), I do not see a lot of appetite to go back to that way of doing business.

Getting close to home.

WASHINGTON, July 20 (Reuters) - A North Korean government-backed hacking group penetrated an American IT management company and used it as a springboard to target cryptocurrency companies, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

The hackers broke into Louisville, Colorado-based JumpCloud in late June and used their access to the company’s systems to target its cryptocurrency company clients in an effort to steal digital cash, the sources said. A JumpCloud spokesperson said fewer than five customers had been impacted. Reuters could not ascertain whether any digital currency was ultimately stolen as a result of the hack.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

That said, the EIS is not what holds up water pipelines across the Great Plains. Pumping cost does that. I get pitched/asked to help with somebody wanting to do that (some more credible than others) every few years, and the outcome is always the same - municipal water consumption will have to be a hell of a lot more expensive than it is today for that to make sense. Drying up fields makes more financial sense. (Other things that make more financial sense: buying more bombs for Ukraine so we can get back to growing grain there, where grain wants to grow.)

Hey, what's the estimate that's used for electrical costs for such an endeavor? I assume that it's new generation and I'm curious just how grossly optimistic these folks are.

[TakeFive]

Thanks for posting this

Originally Posted by rds70

Latest version of X Denver 3 or 4 (but who's counting):

23 stories, 261.5 feet, 397 units

Distractions aside "WE" always appreciate your ability to find these.

Hard to speculate on when they might secure funding? What's interesting is since their projects are designed to be on the affordable side that may be a positive in the current market.

[twister244]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Phoenix is securing it's importance on the national pecking order by way of all the chip plants they have garnered the last several years. That City may likely become a top national strategic priority once the $50 or so billion of chip investment is finished. That alone will probably secure their water needs forever.

That doesn't equate to Phoenix getting any more prioritization on water than they do now. Colorado has rights.......

If the plants become important, fine, but we are already seeing areas in AZ limiting development because they just can't sustain the current trajectory. There are several cities that are going to have to realize sooner that they can't grow indefinitely with looming water/flood issues. And if the municipalities don't deal with it, then the private market will. We are already seeing this in the insurance market (I.E., Florida / California).

[TakeFive]

Update on your neighborhood

Originally Posted by twister244

That doesn't equate to Phoenix getting any more prioritization on water than they do now. Colorado has rights.......

If the plants become important, fine, but we are already seeing areas in AZ limiting development because they just can't sustain the current trajectory. There are several cities that are going to have to realize sooner that they can't grow indefinitely with looming water/flood issues. And if the municipalities don't deal with it, then the private market will. We are already seeing this in the insurance market (I.E., Florida / California).

https://milehighcre.com/the-weitz-company-celebrates-26th-and-alcott-topping-off/

Grand Peaks‘ for-rent high-rise apartment development has topped out at the intersection of 26th Avenue and Alcott Street in Denver’s Jefferson Park neighborhood. The first tower of the 15-story, 626-unit property houses 93 short term rental units while the second tower houses 533 apartment style units.

Construction began in October 2021 and is on schedule for completion in April 2024.

“It’s awesome to see the amount of work that has been put in place over the past 18 months and to celebrate reaching the top of this structure. We’d like to thank everybody who has contributed to this great feat!” said Shane Steere, senior project superintendent at The Weitz Company, the general contractor for the project.