Transit Fantasies

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by FarmerHaight

I was thinking HSR might be run up 176 to the TCH and in that case, regional rail could share tracks right up to the Fraser Hwy or 56 Ave at which point the line could turn East. However, the biggest challenge with that is getting tracks through Langley. Splitting off from HSR and running down the TCH would probably be more cost effective than jamming tracks through the middle of Langley, even if that means skipping the town centre.

There's a pretty decent hill from 88th Ave to TCH, you're not just going to run a train line straight up that.

[waves]

How about this for a wild HSR fantasy:

[Migrant_Coconut]

0/10, does not go to Nanaimo.

[LeftCoaster]

-1/10 does not go to Okotoks.

[cganuelas1995]

I wonder what our transit system would look like if we gave an AI a population/employment density and zoning map of Metro Vancouver and told it to design transit from scratch

[scottN]

Originally Posted by cganuelas1995

I wonder what our transit system would look like if we gave an AI a population/employment density and zoning map of Metro Vancouver and told it to design transit from scratch

A bunch of meandering bus routes with 30 minute service.

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by scottN

A bunch of meandering bus routes with 30 minute service.

If the model was trained on North American cities, sure. But if we shoot some western Europe into its veins we might get twice the rapid transit network plus regional rail

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by cganuelas1995

I wonder what our transit system would look like if we gave an AI a population/employment density and zoning map of Metro Vancouver and told it to design transit from scratch

You could probably just take the average of fantasy maps from here. You'd probably still end up with crazy things like SkyTrain out to Tsawwassen though.

[cganuelas1995]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

You could probably just take the average of fantasy maps from here. You'd probably still end up with crazy things like SkyTrain out to Tsawwassen though.

I'd imagine there would at least be a skytrain octopus reaching every city

[Migrant_Coconut]

Remember that slime mold is a thing, people.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by cganuelas1995

I wonder what our transit system would look like if we gave an AI a population/employment density and zoning map of Metro Vancouver and told it to design transit from scratch

Is this possible with available AI? If so, I'd love to try this out.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by mcj

Is this possible with available AI? If so, I'd love to try this out.

It likely is, but you have to put in a bunch of constraints other than just zoning and population or employment density, because then all you'd get is just lines on a map with no regard for other contexts like geography. Would an AI put the Expo line where it is now? Doubtful, because it would likely avoid areas around Nanaimo, 29th Avenue, 22nd Street because they've got low population and employment densities, but the SkyTrain went along that route because it aligned with existing ROWs. Where it would put a line (or lines) around Downtown Vancouver would be a complete crapshoot, but it follows the route it does because of the pre-existing tunnel.

It would be fun to see as a pure fantasy but like most AI things it'll have no bearing in reality because it would lack a lot of the context and doesn't understand the context.

[cganuelas1995]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

It likely is, but you have to put in a bunch of constraints other than just zoning and population or employment density, because then all you'd get is just lines on a map with no regard for other contexts like geography. Would an AI put the Expo line where it is now? Doubtful, because it would likely avoid areas around Nanaimo, 29th Avenue, 22nd Street because they've got low population and employment densities, but the SkyTrain went along that route because it aligned with existing ROWs. Where it would put a line (or lines) around Downtown Vancouver would be a complete crapshoot, but it follows the route it does because of the pre-existing tunnel.

It would be fun to see as a pure fantasy but like most AI things it'll have no bearing in reality because it would lack a lot of the context and doesn't understand the context.

Yeah you could probably show it the current transit map overlayed with population and employment and zoning and ROWs like existing rail lines, hydro corridors, highways, etc, and maybe general GIS data, and then have it learn, maybe even show it combined maps in different cities.

[cganuelas1995]

Fantasy: a premium fare bus run by CMBC/TransLink that provides all day service Mon-Sun between Coquitlam Central and Mission City stations, maybe price it like the old 2 zone bus fares.

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by Changing City

In realtion to FarmerHaights points; Building the streetcar and tearing down the viaducts are beyond the scope of the area. It's likely the viaducts will go - once Concord decides to develop their NEFC sites. The streetcar, given the costs and that the City isn't set up to run transit or subsidize it (and TransLink aren't currently interested) seems to be to be still a long way off.

Has the cost of just running the streetcar between GI and Science World been studied? Is there space for a maintenance facility on that ROW? I have to think the capital costs for that section would be low, since the stretch between Granville and Cambie is already there. I wonder if the city could partner with the federal government (owner of GI IIRC) to fund the project.

Granville island is sorely lacking transit service. The only Translink service is the 50 which is only useful if you are transferring from the Canada Line at OV Station or are already downtown near the Granville strip. False Creek Ferries or Aquabus are the best options, but not everyone can use these since they do not take bikes, and strollers and wheelchairs must be collapsed. I am not surprised Translink does not want to operate this route as demand would fluctuate significantly based on the season, weather, or the time of day. But the federal government surely has significant incentives to make the island more accessible for non-drivers given the lack of parking on-site.

Currently, if a family with a stroller is coming to GI from Surrey, they could park and ride the Expo line at Scott Road. Transit would actually beat driving from Scott Road to Main Street by 5 - 10 minutes, but then it takes 10 minutes to drive from Main Street to GI whereas transit takes 30 if you can't use the ferries. I would guess the streetcar could easily match that 10 minute trip, if not beat it, since the ROW from Cambie to Granville is dedicated to transit and has only one at-grade crossing.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by FarmerHaight

Has the cost of just running the streetcar between GI and Science World been studied? Is there space for a maintenance facility on that ROW? I have to think the capital costs for that section would be low, since the stretch between Granville and Cambie is already there. I wonder if the city could partner with the federal government (owner of GI IIRC) to fund the project.

Eeyup. Granville Island to Science World and a maintenance facility in the Flats works out to $600-700 million in 2019 dollars, which is actually cheaper by distance than the rest of the line; extending to Arbutus Station makes it $807 million, Waterfront is $912 million, and Yaletown (which just should not happen) rounds it up to $1.07 billion.

In return, we're getting... 8-minute frequency and 14,260 riders a day, or about the same frequency as the 16 and 59% of its peak ridership; from other threads, the City's current plan is to fill in the CP ROW for development and run the tram on the north side of 6th, so we can expect the cost/km to go up and the cost/benefit ratio (not to mention average speed) down. I used to be a strong advocate for this, but the more they talk about it, the more it sounds like we're buying a SkyTrain and getting a bus.

For a slightly more ludicrous but possibly more effective solution, there's been suggestions to build an elevator from Granville Island itself upwards to the bridge. That'd sync it to the incoming Connector and possibly a future bus stop (4, 7, 10, 14, 16, 50, basically all the buses on the Mall).

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

In return, we're getting... 8-minute frequency and 14,260 riders a day, or about the same frequency as the 16 and 59% of its peak ridership; from other threads, the City's current plan is to fill in the CP ROW for development and run the tram on the north side of 6th, so we can expect the cost/km to go up and the cost/benefit ratio (not to mention average speed) down. I used to be a strong advocate for this, but the more they talk about it, the more it sounds like we're buying a SkyTrain and getting a bus.

That's ridership projections and not capacity, right? Any chance those projections will soon be outdated with Senakw and the redevelopment of False Creek South?

Either way, my point with this project being funded by the City and the federal government is the streetcar, while useful to Vancouverites, would mostly serve tourists and not commuters if it runs between GI and Science World, and it would relieve the parking headaches if more people took transit to GI instead of driving. Translink's mandate is to serve the residents of metro Vancouver, and I understand that building what amounts to a tourist tram doesn't necessarily do that.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Correct, a modern tram with 8-minute frequency should get you at least 3-4k pphpd. The FOI doesn't seem to cover Senakw or False Creek, but even if half of all new residents (10k?) take the streetcar every day, that's still just trolley bus ridership. Note that the River District is pegged for 6k residents when finished, and so far, not many seem to be riding the 100 (I know it's Marine Drive, but still).

Pretty sure that doing this without TransLink is a non-starter: the City knows absolutely nothing about building or running train lines. It's possible they could finance it themselves and then have TransLink handle the rest... seeing as they're still trying to find $360 million for a taxpayer-free viaduct removal though, a $600+ million project seems like a long way off.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Correct, a modern tram with 8-minute frequency should get you at least 3-4k pphpd. The FOI doesn't seem to cover Senakw or False Creek, but even if half of all new residents (10k?) take the streetcar every day, that's still just trolley bus ridership. Note that the River District is pegged for 6k residents when finished, and so far, not many seem to be riding the 100 (I know it's Marine Drive, but still).

Pretty sure that doing this without TransLink is a non-starter: the City knows absolutely nothing about building or running train lines. It's possible they could finance it themselves and then have TransLink handle the rest... seeing as they're still trying to find $360 million for a taxpayer-free viaduct removal though, a $600+ million project seems like a long way off.

River District was expected to have a build-out population on 12,500, before they added more density (so that now it'll be more like 15,000).

And I agree with your suggestion that the City couldn't (and shouldn't) try to take this on. The last person who wanted to pursue that was Suzanne Anton. She wasn't elected.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Pretty sure that doing this without TransLink is a non-starter: the City knows absolutely nothing about building or running train lines. It's possible they could finance it themselves and then have TransLink handle the rest... seeing as they're still trying to find $360 million for a taxpayer-free viaduct removal though, a $600+ million project seems like a long way off.

Pretty sure also that the city can't do this without TransLink's approval. There used to be a shuttle bus running on a loop in New Westminster that had to get special permission from TransLink to operate because only TransLink's allowed to offer transit service like that.