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  #1141  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2023, 6:41 PM
Novacek Novacek is online now
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Originally Posted by Lobotomizer View Post
And using the latest 2022 estimates, that population jumps to 2,917,343.

It is wild to consider how the creation of this CSA, which is hardly far-fetched would move Austin up the population rankings.

Austin would blow by San Antonio's CSA, and move to the 20th largest metro in the US.

It would also place Austin higher than St. Louis and Charlotte.
To get super technical (why not, it's friday) I think we'd be 22nd. The MSAs of Tampa and San Diego (neither of which, like Austin, is currently in a CSA) would both be larger than our CSA.
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  #1142  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2023, 6:42 PM
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I'm interested . . . why wouldn't they choose to build closer in to Austin? Is it just land prices, or does that location specifically have a draw?
Somewhat of a combination. Depending on the industry, manufacturing generally requires a lot of surface area (not everyone can build multi-level manufacturing sites like Tesla or GM) - so cheaper land, and therefore cheaper buildings, are desirable and necessary. Many of the larger developers of industrial facilities are seeking places with cheaper land. Also depending on the industry, your labor pool matters. Georgetown can pull from most of the Austin metro (especially due to 130 allowing a lot of folks to bypass all the traffic) but comfortably from 45 and north. That opens up a lot of potential salaried jobs on the operations and engineering sides. It can also pull from Killeen, Belton, Temple, etc. That opens things up significantly if you have a lot of tech or assembly needs due to lower cost of living the farther out you go.

From a logistics standpoint, we look at proximity to major metro areas, trucking, rail, etc. We're near 35 and, again, 130. 290 to Houston is nearby, etc. Taylor is building their multi-modal facility with an emphasis on rail, but it's also easy to get up to Alliance for rail if need be. We also look at major distribution centers for major brands and where those are already located. It's not difficult to get to/from the Port of Houston, which helps with receipt of raw materials, etc., but also international container shipping. We're centrally located nationally and really for the entire North American market.

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Originally Posted by Mopacs View Post
I found it interesting that Costco is opening on the northside of Georgetown where there is not a lot of retail currently (I-35 at Lakeway Drive). Retailers do seem to be taking notice of the northward growth.

https://communityimpact.com/austin/georg...stco-georgetown-location-coming-in-june/
https://www.hellogeorgetown.com/coming-s...ate-when-is-costco-coming-to-georgetown/
https://www.storeopeninghours.com/costco-georgetown-tx

As I understand it a Lowe's is planned at the same corner. Also noticed that HEB has possible plans for a new store north of 130 at highway 195



https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/350-Hwy-195-Georgetown-TX/26328357/
Costco is a huge win - my family is thrilled about that. However, the map you show isn't entirely accurate. It's actually here.

The new HEB on 29 is opening soon (replacing the old one across 35 on 29). The land at 195 and 35 I'm keeping an eye on - I've only ever seen reference to it on these types of documents, and only a few of them at that. HEB, I guess, owns it. If and when they do something with it, who knows? What I do know is that Jarrell has a Brookshire Brothers and that's about it, so it would be advantageous for HEB to tap into development heading up 195 and up 35 from that location.

Lowe's would be awesome because Georgetown only has a Home Depot currently (also an Ace and a Harbor Freight, to be fair), but reading about the drop in Lowe's revenue forecasting makes me wonder what sort of timeline they're considering. If I recall, the site is actually immediately north of Costco on the access road, not as far north as that plot that HEB owns. I think here, if I recall correctly.
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  #1143  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2023, 7:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Lobotomizer View Post
And using the latest 2022 estimates, that population jumps to 2,917,343.

It is wild to consider how the creation of this CSA, which is hardly far-fetched would move Austin up the population rankings.

Austin would blow by San Antonio's CSA, and move to the 20th largest metro in the US.

It would also place Austin higher than St. Louis and Charlotte.
Add Burnet County into the mix and we just about hit 3 million.

I drove out west on 71 from Bee Cave to Marble Falls last weekend and I was astounded at the developments going up. It pretty much extends up to the Pedernales River near Spicewood and the Blanco/Burnet county lines. Another 10-12 miles past that you hit US 281 in Marble Falls where there are numerous residential developments in the pipeline.
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  #1144  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2023, 7:05 PM
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To get super technical (why not, it's friday) I think we'd be 22nd. The MSAs of Tampa and San Diego (neither of which, like Austin, is currently in a CSA) would both be larger than our CSA.
This is a good site. CSAs and MSAs are ranked together on this list:

http://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/combmetro/



Sorted by 2022 estimates in the far right column

Killeen/Temple's place in the rankings for good measure...



(Feel free to move this post to the Census Estimates thread if preferred)
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Last edited by Mopacs; Jun 2, 2023 at 7:16 PM.
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  #1145  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2023, 8:19 PM
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Follow-up

Municipal utility district approved for 14K-home community north of Jarrell
Solana Ranch neighborhood north of Austin will be huge

By Justin Sayers – Staff Writer, Austin Business Journal
Jun 2, 2023

https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/...x_testVariant=cx_21&cx_artPos=0#cxrecs_s
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  #1146  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2023, 8:22 PM
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Massive luxury community set to break ground west of Austin
New golf course planned; 3,500 homes may ultimately rise at Thomas Ranch

By Cody Baird – Staff Writer, Austin Business Journal
Jun 2, 2023

https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/2023/06/02/loraloma-thomas-ranch-austin-update.html
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  #1147  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2023, 9:05 PM
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Massive luxury community set to break ground west of Austin
New golf course planned; 3,500 homes may ultimately rise at Thomas Ranch

By Cody Baird – Staff Writer, Austin Business Journal
Jun 2, 2023

https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/2023/06/02/loraloma-thomas-ranch-austin-update.html
Crazy - Sure enough development continues west toward Burnet County

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Originally Posted by Mopacs View Post
...I drove out west on 71 from Bee Cave to Marble Falls last weekend and I was astounded at the developments going up. It pretty much extends up to the Pedernales River near Spicewood and the Blanco/Burnet county lines. Another 10-12 miles past that you hit US 281 in Marble Falls where there are numerous residential developments in the pipeline.


https://www.multihousingnews.com/new-220...y-in-travis-county-receives-green-light/
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  #1148  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2023, 9:20 PM
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Geez! Austin's MSA has almost 3x more people in it now than in 1990 (32 years ago). WOW!!!

I think that is by far the most growth over that timeframe (from the listing above).
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  #1149  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2023, 1:17 AM
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Makes me wonder what is the fast growing city over a 30 year span? Is it Austin?
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  #1150  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2023, 4:13 AM
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Absolutely insane growth. Among comparably sized metros Las Vegas comes closest in growth since 1990, though it has slowed recently (we were well behind for awhile). Raleigh Durham has also grown significantly

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  #1151  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2023, 6:17 AM
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Absolutely insane growth. Among comparably sized metros Las Vegas comes closest in growth since 1990, though it has slowed recently (we were well behind for awhile). Raleigh Durham has also grown significantly

Alternatively:



Raleigh and Austin clearly accelerated beyond the pack, Toledo and Charleston the laggards, and the rest of whom are in the 900k-1.3m range.

Of what is similar today, the closest to Raleigh and Austin in 1990 was Nashville at 1.2m or San Antonio at 1.4m and (in the opposite direction) only Vegas as you mention.

If you sort by every decade this is the case—Austin is leaps and bounds ahead of what were its peers in that decade.


2000:




2010:




2020:




In 10 years, just like every other decade, we won’t be in the same company.
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Houston: 2.4m (+3.9%) + MSA suburbs: 5.4m (+12%) + CSA exurbs: 200k (+5%)
Dallas: 1.3m (+2%) / FtW: 1.0m (+10%) + suburbs: 6.4m (9%) + exurbs: 566k (+9%)
San Antonio: 1.5m (+6%) + MSA suburbs: 1.2m (+10%) + CSA exurbs: 82k (+3%)
Austin: 994k (+3%) + MSA suburbs: 1.6m (+18%)
Texas (whole): 31.29m (+7%) / Texas (balance): 8.6m (+3%)
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  #1152  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 1:35 PM
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Crazy - Sure enough development continues west toward Burnet County





https://www.multihousingnews.com/new-220...y-in-travis-county-receives-green-light/
There are around 4,000 housetops either under construction or planned at 281 and 71 as well.
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  #1153  
Old Posted Jun 28, 2023, 2:29 PM
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'Missing middle' housing planned near Taylor Samsung plant
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Texas Multifamily Capital LLC has revealed initial details about the project proposed for the corner of Wesley Miller Lane and Farm to Market Road 973, across the street south from Taylor High School and about a mile away from Samsung's facility, which many expect to open next year.

https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/...ylor-housing-development-williamson.html
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  #1154  
Old Posted Jun 28, 2023, 3:41 PM
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Taylor/Hutto is going to be nuts for the foreseeable future.
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  #1155  
Old Posted Jun 28, 2023, 3:46 PM
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^^ Honestly I'd be interested to see the expected growth in Milam County as well given the direct access to all of that via 79. Thorndale and Rockdale seem like the ones to watch. Maybe Thrall, but that's technically Williamson County. Then go north and south along 95 to those tiny farming towns and see what will happen. Sheesh.


Not that I would do this, but I know people who commute to Round Rock from Salado. I have co-workers in Georgetown who commute from Killeen and Belton. Our realtor said Copperas Cove was really getting a lot of hits for folks who work in Cedar Park. I know of folks in Marble Falls who work at Tesla and Samsung (Parmer). How far east would people be willing to go?
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  #1156  
Old Posted Jun 28, 2023, 3:59 PM
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^^ Honestly I'd be interested to see the expected growth in Milam County as well given the direct access to all of that via 79. Thorndale and Rockdale seem like the ones to watch. Maybe Thrall, but that's technically Williamson County. Then go north and south along 95 to those tiny farming towns and see what will happen. Sheesh.


Not that I would do this, but I know people who commute to Round Rock from Salado. I have co-workers in Georgetown who commute from Killeen and Belton. Our realtor said Copperas Cove was really getting a lot of hits for folks who work in Cedar Park. I know of folks in Marble Falls who work at Tesla and Samsung (Parmer). How far east would people be willing to go?
Eesh. People do dumb things. Maybe I need to retool my idea of what's an acceptable commute . . .

EDIT: though I suppose if you're a hybrid worker and only need to see the office a couple of days a week, the drive from Copperas Cove might be worth it.
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  #1157  
Old Posted Jun 28, 2023, 4:21 PM
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Eesh. People do dumb things. Maybe I need to retool my idea of what's an acceptable commute . . .

EDIT: though I suppose if you're a hybrid worker and only need to see the office a couple of days a week, the drive from Copperas Cove might be worth it.
I feel the same way. My commute is under 10 minutes. That's a blessing, I know, and isn't possible for a lot of people. It used to be half an hour.
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  #1158  
Old Posted Jun 28, 2023, 5:51 PM
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I feel the same way. My commute is under 10 minutes. That's a blessing, I know, and isn't possible for a lot of people. It used to be half an hour.
I commute downtown from just south of Lakeline, and it's about 45 minutes either way. That's pretty much my personal limit if driving. But I'm in the office 4/5 days a week, so again, if I only had to do it twice a week, I might feel better about the tradeoff. But people coming down from Killeen are stark raving loony, full stop.
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  #1159  
Old Posted Jun 28, 2023, 6:20 PM
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Samsung construction update 6/25

by Brad Sloan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-q4o2tRiGpE

Crazy to think Samsung could be 9 more of these out there....
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  #1160  
Old Posted Jun 29, 2023, 12:09 AM
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According to Google Maps, Georgetown to Killeen is 41 miles, and a 41 minute drive at the moment.

According to Redfin, the median house price in May 2023 in Killeen was $238,000.

Also according to Redfin, the median house price in May 2023 in Georgetown was $436,000.

A ~45 minute commute to work may be reasonable to some if it means you can actually afford to buy a house.
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