Quote:
Originally Posted by esquire
One thing I recall from the early 2000s when population started growing after a long stagnant spell through the 90s was that there was a bit of a gentrification effect taking place in certain inner city areas like the West End. That does not seem to be happening much anymore... people have written off areas like that, the North End, Elmwood, etc. and only end up there when they have no other choice. I get the impression that we are getting more suburban development as a result of that. The densification you are talking about seems to be concentrated in the more well-off areas... there are large swaths of the city with hardly any residential development taking place.
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You're not wrong. A lot of neighborhood densification has occurred along major corridors like Pembina, Keneston/Wilkes area and the Transcona/Peguis area. So not a lot of attention being paid to inner-city neighborhoods. At the end of the day, development will come down to cost versus revenue for the developer, and revenue (i.e., rent) will be strongly influenced by desirability. The sad truth is that a 2 bedroom apartment built in Bridgwater/Sage Creek can ask a higher rent than the equivalent apartment built in downtown or Elmwood, which means that unless construction costs are somehow lower downtown, the building will get built in Bridgwater/Sage Creek, not downtown.
Of course there is room for government intervention that can swing things in favor of downtown that make it more desirable, namely making it safer and cleaner. But those are monumental, expensive, decade-long initiatives so in the meantime, the private sector is going to gravitate towards where the market is, and that tends to be in safe, car-centric neighborhoods with lots of greenspace and higher incomes. But make no mistake, if we assume greenfield development must take place (likely a good assumption), then it is much better from a financial sustainability standpoint that it takes the current density and form of Bridgwater and Sage Creek as opposed to 90s/00s ultra-low density suburban developments like River Park South, Island Lakes, Royalwood, or Linden Woods.
However, I am optimistic that the recent Housing Accelerator Fund from the CMHC will swing some of the math in favor of inner-city developments over the coming years. Again, I'm not expecting another 300 Main anytime soon, but low to mid-range housing should still be viable downtown.