YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[Hourglass]

Originally Posted by nname

Even Pacific is down big time if you ignore China... but, the plane is much much more full. YVR/YYZ-TPE just reported an average LF of about 95-98%, and this is during off-season. Consider before the pandemic when there was one more daily flights, but the LF was usually 65-80% during the same time period.

At least out of HKG, the demand for YVR flights far exceeds supply. I was checking HKG-YVR flights a couple of months back and the cost for a economy class ticket in June on CX was around $4K (Canadian) for an economy-class ticket, which is insanely expensive considering pre-COVID, it was maybe $1.5K during peak season. AC was a bit cheaper but not by much.

[Alexcaban]

I never understood why AC didn't just give the extra 4x weekly FCO flights from YYZ/YUL to YVR. Would have been perfect to compete against WS @ YYC.

Theres obviously a reason for it but just my curiosity.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Alexcaban

I never understood why AC didn't just give the extra 4x weekly FCO flights from YYZ/YUL to YVR. Would have been perfect to compete against WS @ YYC.

There's obviously a reason for it but just my curiosity.

Vancouver has a fairly large Italian community, so I would have thought there might be a justification for such a route. However, I guess it's mostly just Y class, and not enough J class to make it worthwhile.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I know you work at the airport so I'm sure you saw the chaos at YUL last summer, similar to what was going on at YYZ and to a much lesser extent YVR. Ya sure AC will get ya there, but when, and will your bags even be on the same planet as you? Adding a connection just increases your odds of something going wrong.

I flew through YYZ on my way back from SCL a few months ago and it was a 12 hour delay in YYZ. It was miserable. I pay a LOT to avoid domestic transfers that have a large second leg. Last summer I paid roughly $1,000 more to fly YVR-MUC-ATH over YVR-YUL-ATH last summer to avoid that risk. Money well spent. Wish I had an option to do something similar flying south. Summer ops at YYZ/YUL are just so at capacity the frequency of IROPS is just too high, then add in the winter weather out east and its just not a great alternative.

Even when things go well, the process of flying 8 or 9 hours only to get on another 5 hour flight is just demoralizing, and when it's delayed is simply miserable.

I'm fairly confident last year's mess at YUL will not be duplicated. A lot of steps have been taken (hiring additional staff, addition of baggage hold rooms, etc) - by all parties involved (AC, CATSCA, CBSA, ADM, aircraft handling companies, etc) in order to make sure that doesn't happen again. Ditto for YYZ.

So hopefully last year's mess is the exception, not the rule.

I know at YYZ, AC, the GTAA and NavCan agreed to reduce the number of flights during peak times, to make sure everything runs smoothly and last year's mess doesn't get duplicated.

Originally Posted by Alexcaban

I never understood why AC didn't just give the extra 4x weekly FCO flights from YYZ/YUL to YVR. Would have been perfect to compete against WS @ YYC.

Theres obviously a reason for it but just my curiosity.

I think FCO is the next logical destination in Europe by AC out of YVR. Ahead of ATH or BCN.

Originally Posted by nname

-22.8% is still aren't that bad

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

^ agree that being down 22.9% ain’t all that bad

I don't agree, and clearly I'm not the only one.

There are no more COVID restrictions to Europe, and haven't been for a while. European numbers out of YVR should have recovered fully by now. Had it been -5 or 10%, I would have agreed, but -23% is pretty bad, no matter how you slice it (it's probably more than 23%, as Lefty's chart still shows Edelweiss as 4x weekly A343. It think it operates 3x weekly in June, and then in July, even if it goes up to 4x weekly, it gets downgraded to the A333, which is a lot less seats per flight). Point is, it's not the kind of thing you want to see. You want the needle to start moving in the other direction. Not down.

Now granted, there are other factors at play here. WS expanding Europe out of YYC is clearly hurting YVR. There's not much to be done there, except maybe for competing airlines like AC to dump seats on YVR-Europe to challenge WS. AC clearly doesn't feel the need to do that, at least not yet.

[nname]

Just remember that AC just dumped 25 Rouge 767 during the pandemic, and a lot of airlines in the world did something similar. And the fact that YVR is at the wrong side of the continent for flights to Europe.

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Now granted, there are other factors at play here. WS expanding Europe out of YYC is clearly hurting YVR. There's not much to be done there, except maybe for competing airlines like AC to dump seats on YVR-Europe to challenge WS. AC clearly doesn't feel the need to do that, at least not yet.

Maybe AC is waiting for WS to build up the route first before grabbing it from them. That happened so many times at YVR

This happened to SAN and SNA. I bet MCO is next...

[nname]

Anyways, back to route update...

Current schedule shows NZ plans to operate daily YVR-AKL throughout the S24 season starting from April. Previous season shows the route varies from 4x weekly to daily.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Anyways, back to route update...

Current schedule shows NZ plans to operate daily YVR-AKL throughout the S24 season starting from April. Previous season shows the route varies from 4x weekly to daily.

Always good to see YVR building up its Pacific presence. First AC, then FJ, now NZ.
QF is very tight with their fleet atm so any further YVR expansion is tough. Their 789 fleet is being stretched to the limit already.
Still away to go with China and India… out of YVR’s control on those fronts.

Compared to the rest of Canada where there is a very limited offer to North, East and SE Asia. YYZ excluded of course. Fairly certain other than YVR and YYZ only NRT is served from other Canadian airports?

Therefore YVR-EUROPE is still very well served comparatively. 9 airlines to 10 cities.

[LeftCoaster]

AC doesn't need to dump seats on YVR-Europe to counter WS, they just need to get back to where they were before. It's wild that the City has grown by nearly a quarter million people since then and we have 20% less air service to Europe and our hub airline is just seceding market share to its biggest competitor and adjacent hub.

AC clearly hasn't forgotten about YVR, we've seen lots of good service growth to other markets, but Europe has for some reason just been a complete miss on their part. Hopefully they see some good numbers in S23 and re-orient some frames out west to serve the O&D demand and stave off Westjet encroaching on their customers.

Just to put it in perspective AC serves 5 locations in Europe from Vancouver with 7,800 seats per week, and 17 from YUL with 35,000 seats per week. I know YUL-Europe is a larger market than YVR, but this is clearly not in tune with demand and the YVR-Europe market is most certainly being ignored.

It gets even more ridiculous when you realise that YVR-India used to go through China, now that is gone, and what's the alternative route? YVR-Europe. Well that's a joke as well. Where are these PAX supposed to go? Unfortunately this summer a bunch will probably go to YYC.

[djmk]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Just to put it in perspective AC serves 5 locations in Europe from Vancouver with 7,800 seats per week, and 17 from YUL with 35,000 seats per week. I know YUL-Europe is a larger market than YVR, but this is clearly not in tune with demand and the YVR-Europe market is most certainly being ignored.

there are no AC direct flights to AMS from YVR. This is crazy. a 9.5 hour flight turns to a minimum 12.5 hour to one of the planets most important airports.

[Johnny Aussie]

Most India passengers are going via Asia still.
I suppose we could beat the Europe card to death but YVR still very Asia focused.
Even PDX - larger than Vancouver and similar geography barely has any European service let alone Asian services.
YVR’s larger O&D certainly gives us what we have. The whole world is still recovering as well. This is not the end of growth. Things will get back to normal.

[LeftCoaster]

How? Asia capacity is down an even more whopping 33%.

I have some hope for S24, but I just am truly surprised it's this bad in S23. YVR-Europe flights are through the roof and every time I see a capacity update it's a reduction. It defies logic.

Originally Posted by djmk

there are no AC direct flights to AMS from YVR. This is crazy. a 9.5 hour flight turns to a minimum 12.5 hour to one of the planets most important airports.

Well there is a YVR-AMS direct, and it makes a lot more sense for it to be on KL than AC. YVR-AMS on AC would be predominantly YVR based O&D since I'd imagine most Dutch are pretty loyal Skyteam fliers, and I don't think that's really all that big of a market.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

AC doesn't need to dump seats on YVR-Europe to counter WS, they just need to get back to where they were before. It's wild ...// our hub airline is just seceding market share to its biggest competitor and adjacent hub.

AC clearly hasn't forgotten about YVR, we've seen lots of good service growth to other markets, but Europe has for some reason just been a complete miss on their part. Hopefully they see some good numbers in S23 and re-orient some frames out west to serve the O&D demand and stave off Westjet encroaching on their customers. .../ I know YUL-Europe is a larger market than YVR, but this is clearly not in tune with demand and the YVR-Europe market is most certainly being ignored.

It gets even more ridiculous when you realise that YVR-India used to go through China, now that is gone, and what's the alternative route? YVR-Europe. Well that's a joke as well. Where are these PAX supposed to go? Unfortunately this summer a bunch will probably go to YYC.

Thank you for the insightful analysis. Several Questions, if I may:

First, YVR-India? do (or did) they largely go through China to get cheaper fares than via AI nonstop? What is the reason for that? Also, yes, via Europe to India means between 1/2 and 2/3 of the way around the Earth in the other direction. And still only DELHI? Is MUMBAI a significant enough market?

As for AC beefing up Europe, while it's true that they're short on planes, could you eventually see YVR-Rome, YVR-Amsterdam (assuming a renegotiation with KLM is necessary), and what about YVR Zurich? (year-round? )

Are any of these possibilities? Any others? And if AC can't or won't do it, could there be any other airlines that would?

[djmk]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Well there is a YVR-AMS direct, and it makes a lot more sense for it to be on KL than AC. YVR-AMS on AC would be predominantly YVR based O&D since I'd imagine most Dutch are pretty loyal Skyteam fliers, and I don't think that's really all that big of a market.

Brother, I have gift cards to use up.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

How? Asia capacity is down an even more whopping 33%.

I have some hope for S24, but I just am truly surprised it's this bad in S23. YVR-Europe flights are through the roof and every time I see a capacity update it's a reduction. It defies logic.

Who knows right?

East Asia focused compared to the rest of Canada. Like I said outside of YVR and YYZ only NRT is connected to other Canadian cities. Precovid I am pretty certain there were flights to PVG and PEK as well. So you could say other cities are way down on Asian capacity as well. YVR will always be disadvantaged geographically when it comes to Europe.
China - Australia has only started ramping up and only flights to SYD and MEL at the moment. There haven’t been any announcements to any other city in Australia yet. Even by July MEL-China will only be just over half of precovid frequencies. Who knows. Many routes in Australia still haven’t resumed. Obviously much more heavily focused on Asia but a ways to go yet!
Still thrilled YVR will have a link to DXB soon!

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by djmk

Brother, I have gift cards to use up.

Well why didn’t you say that sooner?

Quick, someone tell AC this dude needs to get to Amsterdam A.S.A.P.

Only a non stop will do!

Lol….

[ninjakafi_81]

Although it is kind of a long shot, but I’d love to see a South America route from YVR.

[Klazu]

Flights are expensive right now and I think high inflation and job uncertainty is finally catching up to people. I am flying to HEL in two weeks via ORD and LHR and flights were $6,000 for the three of us. In the past month I have flown twice to SLC on company dime and flights were $850 and $1,400, which is bonkers.

[djmk]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Well why didn’t you say that sooner?

Quick, someone tell AC this dude needs to get to Amsterdam A.S.A.P.

Only a non stop will do!

Lol….

lol. your help is very much appreciated. My maatjes can't wait!

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Who knows right?

East Asia focused compared to the rest of Canada. Like I said outside of YVR and YYZ only NRT is connected to other Canadian cities. Precovid I am pretty certain there were flights to PVG and PEK as well. So you could say other cities are way down on Asian capacity as well. YVR will always be disadvantaged geographically when it comes to Europe.
China - Australia has only started ramping up and only flights to SYD and MEL at the moment. There haven’t been any announcements to any other city in Australia yet. Even by July MEL-China will only be just over half of precovid frequencies. Who knows. Many routes in Australia still haven’t resumed. Obviously much more heavily focused on Asia but a ways to go yet!
Still thrilled YVR will have a link to DXB soon!

Well sure, but everyone is down to Asia; YVR, Canada, US, Europe you name it. Asia isn't fully open again.

Europe on the other hand is, and most airports are back to their 2019 service to Europe, some much higher since Europe is open and Asia isn't and that's where the people are flying now. This is why I'm so confused that YVR-Europe is so far behind its 2019 numbers. The demand is clearly there, the service is not.

Oh well, I've beat this horse to death. Maybe some other airlines will boost YVR-Europe and AC can sit there scratching their heads as to why more people aren't flying 4,500kms out of their way to transfer in YYZ/YUL.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

edit/...YVR-Europe flights are through the roof and every time I see a capacity update it's a reduction. It defies logic.

Well, there is a YVR-AMS direct, and it makes a lot more sense for it to be on KL than AC. YVR-AMS on AC would be predominantly YVR based O&D since I'd imagine most Dutch are pretty loyal Skyteam fliers, and I don't think that's really all that big of a market.

> Would having AC open an Amsterdam route necessitate a change in the bilateral that allows KLM to fly to YVR?

Originally Posted by ninjakafi_81

Although it is kind of a long shot, but I’d love to see a South America route from YVR.

> So would I and I think a number of people would agree> Some years back, LATAM Peru wanted to start a YVR-Lima route, but that fizzled. I don't know the best route but there are a lot of South Americans in Vancouver now. People have suggested Bogota, or maybe GRU.

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

edit/......
Europe on the other hand is, and most airports are back to their 2019 service This is why I'm so confused that YVR-Europe is so far behind its 2019 numbers. The demand is clearly there, the service is not.

Oh well, I've beat this horse to death. Maybe some other airlines will boost YVR-Europe and AC can sit there scratching their heads as to why more people aren't flying 4,500kms out of their way to transfer in YYZ/YUL.

> Which other airlines (and routes) could you see coming to YVR? That would be great