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  #14341  
Old Posted May 12, 2023, 5:50 PM
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I say open the whole city to duplex and ADU by right and see what gets built. Let the market decide.
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  #14342  
Old Posted May 12, 2023, 11:09 PM
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Originally Posted by TakeFive View Post
You say tomato, I say...


I recently picked up a guy who was about to buy a new (used) car. His previous ride was totaled and his (minimal) insurance wouldn't cover the loss. Said he moved to Phoenix from Seattle which led to him saying Seattle has great transit but in Phoenix you definitely need a car. Would you consider moving back to Seattle? "Nope, I like it here."

There's a reason for this anecdote. Denver is somewhere between Phoenix and Seattle.

The Denver neighborhoods I'm more familiar with are decidedly more suburban in character. The 'hoods that Stonemans_rowJ is talking about are more urban-suburban.

RTD services are decent and they're fortunate to have a nice dedicated revenue stream but they pale in comparison to Seattle's revenue and spending on transit. More suburban areas are less likely to have sufficient transit and it's more likely that transit wouldn't take them where they need to go.

Consequently, attitudes about transit, cars and car storage are very different from Seattle. But closer to the urban center things continue to evolve. Residential streets are of course narrower.
The first, second, and third ring would benefit from duplex as a right. Even my neighborhood which feels suburban (by design) is a short walk to the Cherry Creek North District which my wife and I routinely make the walk down the hill. (Would be hard though in my neighborhood with the constituents).

The furthest rings in Denver where there are no alleys it's pointless and will only serve to piss people off. That's probably at least part of why the proposed legislation is DOA. It's whole hog. Needs a lot more nuance.
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  #14343  
Old Posted May 13, 2023, 10:28 PM
laniroj laniroj is offline
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Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ View Post
Bank Rate is teaser rates and it's for primary mortgages. Read the fine print. ADU is not a gov backed mortgage.

Arms are priced barely lower than 30FRM. You'd have to go to a local bank for this. Cash out Refi like this is generally 65-70LTV. Lending at 4%? No way. they're paying 5% on deposits now.

Not trying to be argumentative, but it aint easy. Maybe there's a local bank you know of who has a great niche ADU portfolio product?

I have universal life through NW Mutual. It's 8%. you can borrow 50% of cash value. How many people have cash value policy's for $700,000 to tap $350,000.

you are correct that there are certainly ways to do it- but all the examples you lay out are certainly not possible at scale. Very few people meet these parameters you speak of
^We'll agree to disagree!
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  #14344  
Old Posted May 13, 2023, 10:29 PM
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i say open the whole city to duplex and adu by right and see what gets built. Let the market decide.
amen!
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  #14345  
Old Posted May 14, 2023, 6:48 PM
mr1138 mr1138 is offline
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Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ View Post
The first, second, and third ring would benefit from duplex as a right. Even my neighborhood which feels suburban (by design) is a short walk to the Cherry Creek North District which my wife and I routinely make the walk down the hill. (Would be hard though in my neighborhood with the constituents).

The furthest rings in Denver where there are no alleys it's pointless and will only serve to piss people off. That's probably at least part of why the proposed legislation is DOA. It's whole hog. Needs a lot more nuance.
I suspect you are right about this. While many people were simply opposed to the idea of the state government overriding ANY local land use decisions, I think a lot of suburbs also felt it was unfair to be lumped in as "Tier 1" cities along with Denver, Boulder, FTC, and Co. Springs. It also seems to me that some kind of professional economic analysis of the likely outcome would be good to provide as a part of any proposal.

Do people in the furthest rings of the suburbs actually need to fear wholesale demolition of their neighborhoods to be replaced with townhomes? My guess is that the answer is no - and especially not if the same rules apply to more traditional urban neighborhoods where it makes more sense to add townhomes. And if market demand would prefer to put middle-housing units closer to the center anyway (as I suspect it would), then why not just build that into the structure of the proposal? Create a third "tier" for exurbs like Firestone and Dacono, and let the traditional suburbs occupy a second tier that is still allowed to zone for single-family. I bet a lot more people would go for it if it were seen as applying mostly to "the city," i.e.. the cities that are responsible for generating the majority of the economic growth.
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  #14346  
Old Posted May 14, 2023, 9:33 PM
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A new state law is probably much easier in a state where there are existing state laws about cities accommodating growth. Once you get over that hump the debate is about the specifics, not the basic concept. Not that a major move like "start to allow missing middle in most place) is the same ol'.
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  #14347  
Old Posted May 15, 2023, 1:56 AM
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Originally Posted by mr1138 View Post
...Do people in the furthest rings of the suburbs actually need to fear wholesale demolition of their neighborhoods to be replaced with townhomes? My guess is that the answer is no - and especially not if the same rules apply to more traditional urban neighborhoods where it makes more sense to add townhomes. And if market demand would prefer to put middle-housing units closer to the center anyway (as I suspect it would), then why not just build that into the structure of the proposal? Create a third "tier" for exurbs like Firestone and Dacono, and let the traditional suburbs occupy a second tier that is still allowed to zone for single-family. I bet a lot more people would go for it if it were seen as applying mostly to "the city," i.e.. the cities that are responsible for generating the majority of the economic growth.
Quite literally EVERY single suburb with beginnings before 1990 has a decent stock of duplexes, townhomes, cottages, and class C apartments. There are 0 exceptions. It's not like these places don't already have these land uses the State bill attempts to include by right and these places aren't exclusively SFH. The only thing that changed was zoning in the 90's began excluding literally everything except single family homes and big box retail...oh and giant plots of land for schools that will never get used, can't be rezoned (b/c...neighbors), and sit idle forevermore.
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  #14348  
Old Posted May 15, 2023, 6:40 AM
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The State will get one more bite at the apple before the 2024 elections.

Gov. Polis claimed he sought the council of various experts. To me his appeal sounded like a bunch of talking points.

Where the Governor missed the boat is that he couldn't even get buy-in from the most urban-friendly part of the metro area: the City/County of Denver.

Chances are high that next year there will be a significant lack of enthusiasm for pursuing any statewide rezoning.
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  #14349  
Old Posted May 15, 2023, 7:10 AM
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Different places, different faces of City Life

CBS4 Colorado has the awesome story of a migrant 'homeless' couple who are making a life in Denver.
MAY 13, 2023 BY Jasmine Arenas

A mother was raising her son in a city she loved. Then San Francisco changed and stole her boy
May 14, 2023 - Props to Sara Sidner for her well written piece for CNN.

While affordability is a significant issue it may be that residents are even more concerned with growing crime, homelessness and drug addition. This could make them hesitant to allow blanket up-zoning; not saying it's the most rational position but it would be understandable.
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  #14350  
Old Posted May 15, 2023, 3:51 PM
laniroj laniroj is offline
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[SIZE="3"]...Where the Governor missed the boat is that he couldn't even get buy-in from the most urban-friendly part of the metro area: the City/County of Denver.

Chances are high that next year there will be a significant lack of enthusiasm for pursuing any statewide rezoning.
It's almost like a Harvard Business School case study of NIMBYism. A bunch of cities/towns who complain about housing costs and displacement and then in the same breath they decry a solution to the problem (ie better zoning to replace their terrible decisions). I hope the dems and Polis steamroll all the cry-babies screaming local control and push through on partisan lines like they've gotten just abotu everything else passed in the past 7 years. THESE CITIES/TOWNS HAVE LOCAL CONTROL NOW AND FOREVER PRIOR - look what they've done!! If they had done something about housing that was positive, other than token feel good funding here and there at the margins, I'd tend to agree with them about local control, but these cities/towns have done nothing but exacerbate and accelerate the housing problem via zoning, regulation, and downright vindictiveness in some areas. Methinks you've been gone from Colorado too long. It's not the same place it used to be from a politics and business friendly standpoint. Yes some of the big stuff makes the news, especially what the legislature does, but the real story for real estate is at the extremely local level. The mandatory neighborhood meetings where you could pull a dozen restraining orders following each presentation, the Section 106 suits that instantly kill rezoning efforts, the CORA intimidation, historic preservation shenanigans, the prescriptive design requirements which drive incredible cost, the transportation requirements to build highways on residential streets, the high tech electrical metering that gets larger every year, the electric parking requirements for a grid that can't support the end users, the fire departments requiring ever greater areas of concrete and asphalt to fight increasingly rare fires, the subjective planning comments which delay the hell out of permitting, and finally, the cowardice of our local elected leaders to DO A DAMN THING ABOUT ALL OF IT!

We're barreling toward a tiny, less rich version of California.
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  #14351  
Old Posted May 15, 2023, 6:41 PM
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We're barreling toward a tiny, less rich version of California.
I will be borrowing this, thanks in advance.
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  #14352  
Old Posted May 15, 2023, 6:58 PM
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Methinks you've been gone from Colorado too long. It's not the same place it used to be from a politics and business friendly standpoint.

We're barreling toward a tiny, less rich version of California.
Fourplex zoning could transform neighborhoods like Virginia Vale/Village in exciting ways.

Nobody could have predicted all the amazing change for Denver over the last 15 years.

2008 to 2013

The City Center awakens and attracts development. The three main catalysts (in order of occurrence) were 1) Coors Field 2) Doubling of the Convention Center (including conventions hotel) and 3) the passage of FasTracks which resulted in the redevelopment of Union Station and neighborhood.

The early years saw new development at Riverfront or Commons Park neighborhood. There was new development in LoDo, in Ballpark, and along Brighton Blvd birthed largely by Taxi. Then the buildout of DUS happened at a breakneck pace.

Most of this earlier development was in the 4- to 8-story range.

2013 to 2018

By 2012 many of the (apartment) experts were predicting Denver would soon be waaay overbuilt. But developers looking at population growth and the growing popularity of downtown forged ahead. Development densities continued to increase.

Prior to 2018 Denver was still plenty affordable and following the Great Recession nobody was panicked over housing costs or inventory. As each year went by construction costs increased as did rents. Urban construction is higher cost but the improving economy made continued construction attractive.

2018 to 2023

Denver becomes a Tech Town. Colorado/Denver always had a tech history but renewed enthusiasm of tech growth did a lot, both good and bad, to change Denver.

It's only been over the last five years that housing cots have gone through the roof. In Real Estate time that's a very short period to keep up with unpredictable demand.
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  #14353  
Old Posted May 15, 2023, 6:59 PM
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Originally Posted by laniroj View Post
Quite literally EVERY single suburb with beginnings before 1990 has a decent stock of duplexes, townhomes, cottages, and class C apartments. There are 0 exceptions. It's not like these places don't already have these land uses the State bill attempts to include by right and these places aren't exclusively SFH. The only thing that changed was zoning in the 90's began excluding literally everything except single family homes and big box retail...oh and giant plots of land for schools that will never get used, can't be rezoned (b/c...neighbors), and sit idle forevermore.
I think I failed to articulate my point correctly. I live in Olde Town Arvada (in a townhome), so I am definitely aware of the diverse housing options that exist in the older parts of most suburbs. But those same suburbs also have VAST swaths of single-family zoned neighborhoods, including many ranch home neighborhoods with zoning that dates all the way back to the 1950s. There is a deep fear in the suburbs that some of these neighborhoods (take, for example, this one) will loose their so-called "character" if this kind of legislation passes.

There is also a fear that the character of other neighborhoods (like this one) will also change. As Stonemans_rowJ correctly pointed out, many of these places have no alleys and possess other qualities that would make it essentially pointless to build duplexes there. I would guess that the majority of the fears of these far-flung neighborhoods "changing" are unfounded.

There is absolutely a lot of demand for townhomes, apartments, and all other kinds of housing in the suburbs today. But this is largely driven by the reality that developers are looking to put housing pretty much anywhere that cities will let them, because there are so few places they can build today. Oftentimes this means shoe-horning auto-oriented apartments and townhomes into locations that were slated for commercial (reducing the city’s projected tax base), or simply aren't very desirable places to live. I can't help but wonder if the demand for suburban-style townhomes in locations like this this might dry up if lots of new opportunities open up for townhomes in central locations where they would make more sense.

I have been using this as a thought experiment - If EVERY single-family neighborhood in the metro area started to see rapid redevelopment, it would require a population boom vastly larger than the one we are seeing. The reality is that the population of the metro area is not going to double overnight (where would all those jobs come from anyway?), so the vast majority of new construction would logically be targeted in the locations where it makes the most sense. There's no way this kind of rule change would result in wholesale change all across the metro area. In some places, the result may be a bit like a cork popping out of a bottle, and look like what we have seen in Sloan's Lake and Jefferson Park. In many other places (some of which are the most vocally opposed), I bet little to nothing would change at all.

If it would help alleviate some fears in the suburbs that would get some more senators on board with voting yes, then why not just acknowledge this reality and target the re-zoning in the places it would make the most sense (i.e. near transit corridors and places that already have most of the elements of a 15-minute neighborhood)? Or, what I was originally suggesting, would be to set different rules for suburbs as opposed to the primary economic centers - which this years draft did by creating a “tier 2.” I’m just saying maybe there should also be an intermediate tier - one that focuses middle-housing mostly near transit in the suburbs, but establishes it by-right everywhere in our true “tier 1” cities (easily definable as the cities that are the job centers).

Last edited by mr1138; May 15, 2023 at 7:34 PM.
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  #14354  
Old Posted May 15, 2023, 7:32 PM
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"Where do we Go from Here?"

Forget the suburbs (for now) as most have already pivoted to offering a better mix of housing affordability in recent years.

The City of Denver needs to have a conversation about the advantages of fourplex zoning ("sell the benefits").

I have to believe that most residents, once they think about it, will find fourplex zoning to be Not Scary. Generally this more granular development would likely move at a snails pace anyway. An area between Dahlia Street (south of Leetsdale) and Colorado Blvd (for example) could potentially redevelop more quickly but that's likely an exception.
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  #14355  
Old Posted May 15, 2023, 7:36 PM
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I’m just saying maybe there should also be an intermediate tier - one that focuses middle-housing mostly near transit in the suburbs, but establishes it by-right everywhere in our true “tier 1” cities (easily definable as the cities that are the job centers).
I am curious what makes you think that a duplex or a fourplex is any less appropriate for a neighborhood of ranch houses at Ralston & Wadsworth than it is at my house at 7th & Franklin. My neighborhood is single family. It is farther from transit. It certainly has more "character" to protect. And the lots are much smaller, making the impact of an ADU on the neighbors far more.

If anything, I would argue those ranch neighborhoods in Arvada are EXACTLY where we need to densify. Tier 1, Tier 2, or whatever. That is exactly who needs to have density crammed down their throats. I am perfectly happy to have seas of 10 story buildings built a few blocks down the street toward Broadway. I think the poor folks in Arvada can handle somebody living in their basement.

But I do not want it if it's targeting the areas that are already seeing density anyways. It's everybody, or it should be left to the whims of neighborhood by neighborhood decision-making, like it is now. A "state imposed" solution that isn't statewide - just no.
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  #14356  
Old Posted May 15, 2023, 7:36 PM
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"Where do we Go from Here?"

Forget the suburbs (for now) as most have already pivoted to offering a better mix of housing affordability in recent years.

The City of Denver needs to have a conversation about the advantages of fourplex zoning ("sell the benefits").

I have to believe that most residents, once they think about it, will find fourplex zoning to be Not Scary. Generally this more granular development would likely move at a snails pace anyway. An area between Dahlia Street (south of Leetsdale) and Colorado Blvd (for example) could potentially redevelop more quickly but that's likely an exception.
I think I disagree with every word of this post. Good job.
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  #14357  
Old Posted May 15, 2023, 7:57 PM
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I can't help but wonder if the demand for suburban-style townhomes in locations like this this might dry up if lots of new opportunities open up for townhomes in central locations where they would make more sense.
Sorry to pick a nit but this example likely not a good one.

This is like flipping the script from granular development to the other end of the spectrum where developers could more efficiently and economically develop missing middle housing utilizing vacant land.

Don't forget, whether Broomfield or Boulder County, growth of Life Science jobs are projected to accelerate. Even though these cats may make good money, today's lifestyle means many would prefer a maintenance-free home.

----------------------------



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I think I disagree with every word of this post. Good job.
Well, it's not the first time and likely not the last time.
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  #14358  
Old Posted May 15, 2023, 8:51 PM
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I am curious what makes you think that a duplex or a fourplex is any less appropriate for a neighborhood of ranch houses at Ralston & Wadsworth than it is at my house at 7th & Franklin. My neighborhood is single family. It is farther from transit. It certainly has more "character" to protect. And the lots are much smaller, making the impact of an ADU on the neighbors far more.

If anything, I would argue those ranch neighborhoods in Arvada are EXACTLY where we need to densify. Tier 1, Tier 2, or whatever. That is exactly who needs to have density crammed down their throats. I am perfectly happy to have seas of 10 story buildings built a few blocks down the street toward Broadway. I think the poor folks in Arvada can handle somebody living in their basement.

But I do not want it if it's targeting the areas that are already seeing density anyways. It's everybody, or it should be left to the whims of neighborhood by neighborhood decision-making, like it is now. A "state imposed" solution that isn't statewide - just no.
I don't think that was what I was trying to say at all. I was actually pointing out that the neighborhood of ranch houses at Ralston & Wadsworth is very close to the older, more diverse part of town, but that it is absolutely locked in with exclusive single-family zoning (zoning that dates to the 1950s - this zoning did not just begin in the 1990s as was earlier asserted). I agree - this is a location where it probably DOES make sense to add townhomes. But this is also the kind of location where the local city government will never even DISCUSS doing so - even raising the topic during a Comprehensive Plan update would be a political third rail. Local officials and planners will tell you "the community doesn't support density there," even though they've never honestly discussed that as an option.

I'm not speaking so much to the appropriateness of townhomes here vs. your neighborhood (I actually supported the bill as originally drafted), I'm speaking to the political expediency of asking Arvada's elected representative to vote for this. Recall that it was the State Senator who represents this very neighborhood who wrote this editorial, and then stripped the zoning elements out of the bill in her position on the Appropriations Committee.

In fact, if a plan did create a new "tier" for suburbs like Arvada, I would hope the final draft WOULD force that specific neighborhood to densify since it is so close to Olde Town and the G-line. It is a far more appropriate place to put density than that other location way out west on Indiana. I guess I'm just saying maybe there needs to be some kind of assurance for those folks way off Indiana (where it probably doesn't make sense to add density today).

But the fact remains that bedroom communities are just that - bedroom communities. They are not responsible for the majority of the job growth. I'm mostly suggesting that an approach focused on our core cities may get more buy-in from senators like the one from District 19.

Last edited by mr1138; May 15, 2023 at 9:06 PM.
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  #14359  
Old Posted May 15, 2023, 10:36 PM
laniroj laniroj is offline
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...I have been using this as a thought experiment - If EVERY single-family neighborhood in the metro area started to see rapid redevelopment, it would require a population boom vastly larger than the one we are seeing. The reality is that the population of the metro area is not going to double overnight (where would all those jobs come from anyway?), so the vast majority of new construction would logically be targeted in the locations where it makes the most sense. There's no way this kind of rule change would result in wholesale change all across the metro area. In some places, the result may be a bit like a cork popping out of a bottle, and look like what we have seen in Sloan's Lake and Jefferson Park. In many other places (some of which are the most vocally opposed), I bet little to nothing would change at all..
Who thinks it makes the most sense here or there? Are the suburbs the right spot with good schools or is the center city the right spot with coffee shops? How about an existing office park with ample open space or 2,641 feet from a transit stop? The only true answer to this question is that EVERY SINGLE PLACE makes sense for someone. Planners have been dictating (with their best foot forward in most cases) where growth goes and it doesn't work. The market is efficient, people doing studies and making plans are not efficient.

As to your thought experiment, it's an excellent one however I'd add to it that growth doesn't just GO EVERYWHERE. It feels like that now because it's concentrated in such few places due to dictation from City/County zoning plans. When that growth gets spread across the 85% of land in every jurisdiction that's zoned for single family homes, the growth will feel WAY LESS INTENSE than it does now. You, perhaps, are erroneously assuming investment decisions are made irrespective of population growth, which they very much are not. Nobody builds housing just for the fun of it if they don't think they'll get their money back and make a lil on the way. Oh...and when they think they can't get their money back, that throttle backs off incredibly quickly. Again, the market is incredibly efficient in this regard.
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  #14360  
Old Posted May 15, 2023, 11:19 PM
laniroj laniroj is offline
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I don't think that was what I was trying to say at all. I was actually pointing out that the neighborhood of ranch houses at Ralston & Wadsworth is very close to the older, more diverse part of town, but that it is absolutely locked in with exclusive single-family zoning (zoning that dates to the 1950s - this zoning did not just begin in the 1990s as was earlier asserted).
Ralston/Wads has plenty of duplex, fourplex, class C apartments in the general area - in fact too many to count and interwoven with 1950's ranch homes everywhere. They've all since been zoned over with SFR but at one time (prior to 1990) the zoning allowed for those diverse uses there! It really did change in 1990, really moreso late 1980's but we'll round up. 1990 assertion holds!

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