Expo Line - Surrey Langley Extension: Planning & Pre-Construction

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by fredinno

https://sfb.nathanpachal.com/2016/06/new-report-shows-where-there-is-massive.html

Just looking at that map, what's the forum's the over-under on SkyTrain eventually following Fraser Highway to 'downtown Abbotsford' with a terminus at Abbotsford International Airport? I could see that occurring in the 2050s-plus timeframe, assuming Abbotsford goes through a sustained few decades of growth along with general high rates of growth South of the Fraser.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Same length and cost/km as the Langley extension for a fraction of its catchment? YXX will probably have to wait for an REM down Highway 1, so 2070 or later.

[GMD]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Same length and cost/km as the Langley extension for a fraction of its catchment? YXX will probably have to wait for an REM down Highway 1, so 2070 or later.

This probably belongs in the fantasy thread, but the one positive for a potential future extension to Abbotsford is that what little density there is actually sets up reasonably well for stations at Murrayville and Aldergrove and then Abbotsford itself is aligned in a primarily east-west fashion, with reasonably good potential station locations at Highstreet, Clearbrook, Gladwin/Sevenoaks, W Railway/Gladys and Marshall.

But yeah, it will never happen.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Same length and cost/km as the Langley extension for a fraction of its catchment? YXX will probably have to wait for an REM down Highway 1, so 2070 or later.

The idea I settled on is a tram-train following the SRY path until Langley City, then following close to Fraser Hwy until it reaches Abbostford.

That probably works better than SkyTrain, which would need to be elevated the entire way to Abbostford, especially since the lands there right now are either industrial or low-density.


Also, Langley is trying to develop the southern part of the Salmon River Uplands (since residential has been rejected several times) - and Aldergrove is technically a town center.
https://www.langleyadvancetimes.com/news...more-industrial-use-under-proposed-plan/

There's also the lands north of Aldergove that has been vacant since the mid-century and held by the Federal Government for what used to be a radio station.
They're technically ALR still, though.

Either way, it's possible to have residential and commercial on the Fraser Hwy corridor part of the Salmon River Uplands as well as Aldergrove to service the industrial areas proposed on the Salmon River Uplands and on the vacant forest between Hwy 1 and 1A, giving you a dense corridor stretching from Langley to Abbotsford.

[Migrant_Coconut]

REM, not RRT proper - much more limited stops. Again, the tram part would require extensive roadworks and utility relocation, and the train part would require equally-extensive upgrades to the interurban, so you’re really not saving much money (if any) with LRT or heavy rail, let alone any kind of hybrid.

We’ve both noted before that transit and industry zoning (usually) don’t really mix, and Aldergrove proper - even if the population triples – is a very small fraction of both Langleys. ALR or not, Aldergrove's really not conducive to streetcar service.

[madog222]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

Just looking at that map, what's the forum's the over-under on SkyTrain eventually following Fraser Highway to 'downtown Abbotsford' with a terminus at Abbotsford International Airport? I could see that occurring in the 2050s-plus timeframe, assuming Abbotsford goes through a sustained few decades of growth along with general high rates of growth South of the Fraser.

I think any rail transit further east of Langley City will be at grade and not Skytrain. The transit-oriented development that justifies Skytrain is just not possible with current regulations. Most of the Township of Langley, which starts 1.7km from the end of the SLS terminus, is ALR and not available for residential development. It's 13km to Aldergrove,the first location when any development is possible.

There is also the issue of Regional District jurisdiction. Perhaps Translink needs to take over BC Transit service within the Valley.
West Coast Express serves a station outside of Translink's jurisdiction but that service was started pre-Translink by BC Transit.

Agricultural Land Reserve in green:

https://www.alc.gov.bc.ca/alr-maps/

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by madog222

I think any rail transit further east of Langley City will be at grade and not Skytrain. The transit-oriented development that justifies Skytrain is just not possible with current regulations. Most of the Township of Langley, which starts 1.7km from the end of the SLS terminus, is ALR and not available for residential development. It's 13km to Aldergrove,the first location when any development is possible.

There is also the issue of Regional District jurisdiction. Perhaps Translink needs to take over BC Transit service within the Valley.
West Coast Express serves a station outside of Translink's jurisdiction but that service was started pre-Translink by BC Transit.

Agricultural Land Reserve in green:

https://www.alc.gov.bc.ca/alr-maps/

That path in the center labeled "Hopington" is the Salmon River Uplands, BTW.

That southern part bordering Fraser is the area I'm talking about that should be densified as the new 'heart' of Hopington- which is already a very-low-density residential neighborhood with its own school and everything.

And moving a school and neighborhood is much easier politically than removing it entirely.

This is the direction ToL is moving, as it has made it public (as well as Maple Ridge) it wants to have at as many jobs as people.
Office towers aren't really in huge demand this far out from the city center, so that just means industrial/med-density commercial/office buildings.

Metro Van defines it differently:

The ALR parcels interspersed inside the Salmon River Uplands were removed and made 'rural' due to the insistence of ToL.

Same thing with the area around Aldergrove, which has ALR parcels added to Aldergrove that are really 'aspirational' ToL ALR removals.


This is especially the case because the lands around there tend to be small and pretty marginal for agriculture.
ToL defines these as 'country estates'- ie. lots that are only really big enough to be homes for rich people.

From experience, ToL is not lying about the state of those lots.
ALR allowed the expansion/formation of Gloucester for that reason- no one was or would ever really farm them anyways with any degree of intensity.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

REM, not RRT proper - much more limited stops. Again, the tram part would require extensive roadworks and utility relocation, and the train part would require equally-extensive upgrades to the interurban, so you’re really not saving much money (if any) with LRT or heavy rail, let alone any kind of hybrid.

We’ve both noted before that transit and industry zoning (usually) don’t really mix, and Aldergrove proper - even if the population triples – is a very small fraction of both Langleys. ALR or not, Aldergrove's really not conducive to streetcar service.

Maybe.
TBF, it'd be more of a long-term thing vs an R-Bus. I will say that industrial zoning and transit do mix- not so much passenger rail, though.

SkyTrain also requires extensive roadworks and utility relocation.
Also, full grade-separation.

I also agree with madog222 that the differing jurisdictions is also a big problem.
Having 503 terminate in Abbotsford instead of Aldergrove would be a huge improvement.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aldergrove,_Langley
Aldergrove (both Langley and Abbotsford portions) has a population of 15.5k.
In comparison, Langley City north of the Nicolmekl River (ie. the area within 15 min of the Langley Skytrain) has a population of 16.5k.

Murrayville (between the Salmon River Uplands and Aldergrove) has a population of 11.4k.

So the populations of the areas actually served directly by a train station is comparable.

Most of the pre-2000s Langley suburbs have similar densities.

---

Also, note that 104 and 116 bus are primarily feeders to/from industrial areas, and have riderships around a million riders/year each.
Those routes were also the first to recover from the pandemic and have since exceeded their pre-pandemic levels.


Most of the lowest-performers actually go through auto-oriented SFH suburbs and ultra-low density 'rural' exurbs, not industrial areas, which actually have decent bus ridership generally.

326 (which is primarily a feeder service across Fleetwood suburbs) has a ridership around 500k/year.
That's nowhere near the worst of the SOF SFH feeder routes.

So the ridership would probably be semi-decent if industrial was built throughout the area.


The corridor around Fraser Hwy would have to be densified though.
Therefore, the residential in Hopington/Salmon River Uplands right now would be moved to denser 'villages' near TWU and Fraser Hwy.
This would also allow the schools in the area to be kept/moved (like DW Poppy), rather than being demolished, which is more politically viable.


I will agree though, that sheer track length makes this still costly, SkyTrain or not.
It's 21km from Langley City to Highstreet Shopping Centre, and 15 from King George to Langley City.

[Migrant_Coconut]

On the other hand, you've got a distinct lack of service and demand for Terminal Avenue or Bridgeport; the 104 and 116’s ridership seems to be more due to Queensborough and Suncrest than Big Bend or Annacis.

Yet the Fraser SkyTrain ended up being cheaper overall than the Surrey LRT project. Light metro can run at-grade (e.g. Sea Island), just not on a street; grade-separation is kind of necessary for any rapid transit worth the name. And it’s not just Langley City in the SLS' catchment, it’s Brookswood, Willowbrook and the neighbouring communities too (to say nothing of Fleetwood, Clayton and Cloverdale). For the rest of Fraser Highway? Aldergrove, Murrayville, end of story.

Let’s say your train uses the interuban from Chilliwack, jumps onto the TCH, then Fraser and 56th and then finally back onto the interurban to Scott Road. 22.1 km of off-road rail and 61.7 km on-road for $70m and $157m/km (GO and Surrey LRT, respectfully) comes up at around $11.2 billion. At-grade down the Chilliwack interurban and TCH median and then a bored tunnel through Guildford into Surrey Central gets me ~$9 billion for construction, though design/overhead/inflation/scope creep probably make that number higher.
Either way, there isn’t exactly a “cheap” option, so unless Langley-Aldergrove gets a better business case than 27k residents and maybe 1-2k farmers, BC Transit’ll probably just skip it and head straight to Abbotsford.

[mcj]

Acknowledging that this thread has once again been derailed into a fantasy thread, I can never get passed the fact how folks from rural Langley and the valley simply don't understand that you need to build up demand to justify large capital projects.

The FVX had a ridership of 253,000 in 2019. Even ignoring the steep drop-off during the pandemic, that's a yearly ridership comparable to the daily ridership of the Expo Line.

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by mcj

Acknowledging that this thread has once again been derailed into a fantasy thread, I can never get passed the fact how folks from rural Langley and the valley simply don't understand that you need to build up demand to justify large capital projects.

The FVX had a ridership of 253,000 in 2019. Even ignoring the steep drop-off during the pandemic, that's a yearly ridership comparable to the daily ridership of the Expo Line.

Apologies, I got us derailed (pun intended). I'm not from the Valley, for what it's worth. I just got caught up in a moment of map reading-fueled speculation.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

Apologies, I got us derailed (pun intended). I'm not from the Valley, for what it's worth. I just got caught up in a moment of map reading-fueled speculation.

Not really your fault - it seems sooner or later, every transportation thread gets detoured by overly-optimistic armchair planning (or posters from the exurbs or further out with an axe to grind).

[KincLosddy]

Originally Posted by mcj

Acknowledging that this thread has once again been derailed into a fantasy thread, I can never get passed the fact how folks from rural Langley and the valley simply don't understand that you need to build up demand to justify large capital projects.

The FVX had a ridership of 253,000 in 2019. Even ignoring the steep drop-off during the pandemic, that's a yearly ridership comparable to the daily ridership of the Expo Line.

The folks in rural Langley and the valley (there is over a 300,000 of us now) are well aware that you need demand to justify transit. You also have to implement well-designed transit to attract the people. If the system that exists is inherently flawed and offering little in the ways of convenience or advantage, the demand will never grow rapidly.

The FVX is a bus service depending on a highway that is chronically congested. Over 320,000 people live in the Fraser Valley east of Langley City. None of us can subsist WITHOUT a car. So tell me the inherent advantage to using the FVX instead of using our own vehicles if the end result is being stuck in the exact same congestion? We are at the mercy of transit that may not reliably get us to and from Metro Vancouver, not to mention if such a service would be possibly needed to commute.

Almost a third of a million people out here who are trapped in cars with outdated highways and disastrous transit who are told that we just don't have the need. Come out to Abbotsford, live here for a week, try and get around. Do that then talk about justification of transit planning and projects.

Example: I live in the east side of Abbotsford. In the urban area. There is a Value Village 7km from my house as the crow flies. If I want to get there by transit, its about a 2 hour roundtrip, including walking. Also I would have to transfer to a different bus for the last couple of km.

Two bus transfers, 2 hours. That to accomplish what can be driven in less than 30 minutes. People wonder why we are so car dependent in the valley. It's almost faster to walk across the city.

Now I am not saying we need to spend XX billions of dollars on rapid transit right now to the Valley cities. What I am saying is that we need to start considering realistic and less road-dependent plans for the future for all communities.

[yesheh]

Originally Posted by KincLosddy

Example: I live in the east side of Abbotsford. In the urban area. There is a Value Village 7km from my house as the crow flies. If I want to get there by transit, its about a 2 hour roundtrip, including walking. Also I would have to transfer to a different bus for the last couple of km.

Two bus transfers, 2 hours. That to accomplish what can be driven in less than 30 minutes. People wonder why we are so car dependent in the valley. It's almost faster to walk across the city.

Also on the east side of abbotsford - we have a bus that comes right in front of our house, once an hour, just about as transit friendly as it gets. My wife had an office 9-5 job in town close to the Sevenoaks mall. 1h including a transfer each way vs 15m drive - unfortunately it just doesn't work. You could almost walk faster there.

That being said, once the Broadway line opens, I think it will be ~1:30 from McCallum Rd FVX stop to Lougheed station + Canada line to get to YVR. Starting to get competitive with driving and parking if you can time the flights right...

[Klazu]

Originally Posted by yesheh

Also on the east side of abbotsford - we have a bus that comes right in front of our house, once an hour, just about as transit friendly as it gets. My wife had an office 9-5 job in town close to the Sevenoaks mall. 1h including a transfer each way vs 15m drive - unfortunately it just doesn't work. You could almost walk faster there.

I mean, has she tried cycli... Haha, I am of course joking, like anyone suggesting such a joke would be.

More seriously, though, we really need to get Highway 1 to 3+3 lanes all the way to Chilliwack.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Or, bus lanes. Then the FVX starts to actually work.

And yeah, BC Transit really needs to fix whatever the hell this is.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

And yeah, BC Transit really needs to fix whatever the hell this is.

That looks like it was planned by whoever thought up the bus routes north of the Evergreen Extension.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Which in turn look like whoever thought up the road "grid" the buses are supposed to run on. Seriously, it took half a century to mess up the suburbs, it's going to take a while to put them back together.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Sheba

That looks like it was planned by whoever thought up the bus routes north of the Evergreen Extension.

Seriously though, with how the road were designed over there, and the anchor point requirement (every route must feed into Moody or Coquitlam at one end or both ends), there aren't really many choices.

If you look closely, there is a sort of a badly formed grid that generally follow the main road, N/S from 181, 182, 184, 185, 187, 186, 189, 184, 188... and E/S 183, 160, Skytrain/701, 151, etc. But if the road twist and turn going up the mountain, what else can you do? And with how steep the grade over there, what else can you do other than making the road twist and turn? Try drive up/down the road 184, 185, 186, 187 run on, and you'll know...

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Which in turn look like whoever thought up the road "grid" the buses are supposed to run on. Seriously, it took half a century to mess up the suburbs, it's going to take a while to put them back together.

Making a grid on a mountain isn't easy.

Having a station on David Ave and having a 'big' bus line going east-west as the 'spine' of North Coquitlam would be nice, but that first requires David Ave being fully extended across Burke and Annmore/Ioco... which isn't happening.
So all the buses have to go North-South.

There could be come improvements by extending Lincoln across the Coquitlam River- which would have the dual effect of connecting PoCo and Coquitlam better overall.



The Coq buses south of Evergreen are worse.
At least with the ones north of Evergreen, they don't really have much of a choice...

The ones south of Evergreen do have a choice.

They just choose to be winding feeder lines instead of following the existing road grid to go Braid/Burquitlam <> Coquitlam Central/Inlet Central/Moody Central.
I get that Gatensbury and Thermal are steep and would make the service more expensive due to extra wear-and-tear, but still.