DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[Ndj]

That is entirely beside the point that owner-opposed historic designation is essential eminent domain without compensation

[TakeFive]

Very Interesting

Originally Posted by Ndj

That is entirely beside the point the owner-opposed historic designation is essential eminent domain without compensation

[Brainpathology]

Originally Posted by Ndj

That is entirely beside the point the owner-opposed historic designation is essential eminent domain without compensation

The definition of historic in Denver: one day older than whoever is petitioning, and about to be improved.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Your Grey obsession is waay overrated - not that it isn't a real thing.

Florida, for example has a large and growing Hispanic population which mean growing families or natural growth. More established people moving from the NE or eve from California is very real. Same is true in Arizona.

The one huge advantage of the whole SE is their population density in general and in the NE in particular. It's why all manner of manufacturing has set up shop in those states. You won't find grey hairs manning the assembly lines at BMW, Mercedes etc. Boeing rings the bell So Carolina along with with their many suppliers etc.

The states I highlighted all have negative natural growth and higher than average 65-plus populations. It might be true that the migration trends of the last three years will eventually change these demographics but, right now, they're still states that are grayer.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

The states I highlighted all have negative natural growth and higher than average 65-plus populations. It might be true that the migration trends of the last three years will eventually change these demographics but, right now, they're still states that are grayer.

I found this highly and uniquely interesting; a statistic I'd never heard of so I was quite curious to see where this came from.

First I found this: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-re...s,25%20states%20had%20natural%20decrease.

In 2022, 24 states experienced negative natural change, or natural decrease. Florida had the highest natural decrease at -40,216, followed by Pennsylvania (-23,021) and Ohio (-19,543). In 2021, 25 states had natural decrease.

So far so good. But my curiosity was still not satisfied. What the heck does "negative natural change" even mean?

On another Gubment website I found this explanation. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-re...20there,over%20a%20given%20time%20period.

Natural decrease occurs when there are more deaths than births in a population over a given time period.

In 2021, fewer births, an aging population and increased mortality – intensified by the COVID-19 pandemic--contributed to a rise in natural decrease.

That's an odd way to penalize Florida's growth. I would have thought you would argue that more grey hairs dying off than births would be a net positive economic benefit?

The only thing that "natural changes" do is to explain raw population growth not counting any net migration numbers.

Setting aside the morbid statistics (good grief) and from an economic POV I'd be more interested in number of births in one state versus other states, not tarnished by some funky death rate influences.

[Brainpathology]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

[IMG]

That's an odd way to penalize Florida's growth. I would have thought you would argue that more grey hairs dying off than births would be a net positive economic benefit?

The only thing that "natural changes" do is to explain raw population growth not counting any net migration numbers.

Setting aside the morbid statistics (good grief) and from an economic POV I'd be more interested in number of births in one state versus other states, not tarnished by some funky death rate influences.

Also using death rates in red or purple states after the politicization of medical science (which the, in general, imbecilic tendencies of certain grey tinted voting blocks will enhance the effects of) is maybe going to be transient. I remember reading an article I can't locate now that speculated that "vaccine hesitancy" (which should be written as "stupidity") had likely caused additional COVID deaths in FL equivalent to Desantis' first election win margin - which I believe was around 30k votes or so.

Though that being said.. I agree with you that it should definitely be celebrated from, sure, an "economic" stand point.

[mhays]

Old folks pull their money out of stocks and often cost a lot for uncovered healthcare. But they also spend more than they make, fill housing, etc. Their economic benefit would be too complicated to generalize easily.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

The only thing that "natural changes" do is to explain raw population growth not counting any net migration numbers.

Setting aside the morbid statistics (good grief) and from an economic POV I'd be more interested in number of births in one state versus other states, not tarnished by some funky death rate influences.

^This is why Elon says he wants so many kids. Natural changes in advanced countries are ALL trending this way. If not for immigration, we'd be doomed long term from the growth standpoint. It's a good thing pretty much the whole world still wants to move here for all that opportunity we 'don't' have in the good ol' US of A.

Throwing this metric off the last couple years significantly was covid-19 deaths AND opioid related deaths. Opioid deaths alone have actually decreased overall life expectancy in this country over the past decade.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mhays

Old folks pull their money out of stocks and often cost a lot for uncovered healthcare. But they also spend more than they make, fill housing, etc. Their economic benefit would be too complicated to generalize easily.

In pure economic terms, the elderly and the young are an economic cost, not a benefit. Each of those groups requires support, financial or productivity, from the working age population. In the case where the old spend more than they make, public finance allows them to do that - but only at the cost of productivity for the working age population. In a very dystopian sense, societies would be better off financially if the elderly either worked until they died or if they didn't exist at all. The young are needed because without them society can't continue. All this to say, we're not gonna send all the old folks to the gallows like Cuomo did in NY but each group, separately, is a huge cost to the working age population from a net perspective.

[mhays]

I understand the worker/dependent balance point (and listen to too many videos by Zeihan and others), but economically it really depends what you're counting.

From a development perspective, they're a big and important factor in household counts.

Same with kids. Their numbers affect the volume of school construction most notably.

Really it boils down to both being net sinks economically, but still increasing real estate needs. In balance, we probably spend a larger percentage of total economic activity on buildings, even though doing so is a strain on funding borne by the workforce.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Here's a rendering of the new Amacon project

[rds70]

Latest renderings of the proposed 1709 Blake Street hotel, with 115 rooms in a 7 story building. The developer is the Nichols Partnership. The project also incorporates the existing residence behind the proposed hotel on Wazee street. The project will be reviewed by the LDDRC on May 4th, and it has staff's recommendation of approval:

[DenverInfill]

I'm getting strong Thompson Hotel and The Fitzgerald vibes from this proposed design.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

That hotel design should be an instant approval for LoDo. Does anybody know what is going on with the Bell Tower project?

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

That hotel design should be an instant approval for LoDo. Does anybody know what is going on with the Bell Tower project?

Looks like the last action was in March for a ROW encroachment for a sewer connection, which also happens to be an outstanding item in the review process.


So, progress continues at a slow pace.

[TakeFive]

Somebody check out the drive-thru line as well as the line inside

https://kdvr.com/news/local/denvers-1st-in-n-out-burger-opens/

DENVER (KDVR) — Whether you want a Double-Double with just cheese or you opt for a burger fixed Animal Style, you can now find Colorado’s newest In-N-Out Burger location in Denver.

The Denver location opens at 4597 N. Central Park Blvd. on Friday at 10:30 a.m.

[Fritzdude]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat[URL="https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2023/04/26/denver-downtown-skyline-development-skyscrapers"

https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2023/04/26/denver-downtown-skyline-development-skyscrapers[/URL];9929770]Here's a rendering of the new Amacon project

Wait…. what..? Do I understand this correctly? Amacon is currently building the 491 dual tower condo on the old Shelby site. However, they’re also proposing an additional two tower condo building on the adjacent site? That would be fantastic!

https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2023/04/26/denver-downtown-skyline-development-skyscrapers

[rds70]

One River North - April 30, 2023:

[rds70]

Tower crane is up at the Sports Castle Lofts site:

[rds70]

Another rendering of the proposed Amacon project at 18th and Welton: