AUSTIN | Transportation Updates

[enthurzan]

Originally Posted by lzppjb

I like getting them off the highways going through town. Maybe the thinking is that a lot of trucking will be done driverless and it'll get all those trucks off I35.

Can we get a dedicated roadway like this for drunk drivers, too?

The best way to do this is to send inter-city trucks around the city. Atlanta does this with I-285. It does turn I-285 it a complete sh*thole / traffic sink, but it does clear up inner-city traffic. I would recommend sending intercity trucks on SH-130, as this would only add 10-15 minutes to their schedule on routes that usually take several days, while unclogging I-35 within the city.

[H2O]

Originally Posted by enthurzan

The best way to do this is to send inter-city trucks around the city. Atlanta does this with I-285. It does turn I-285 it a complete sh*thole / traffic sink, but it does clear up inner-city traffic. I would recommend sending intercity trucks on SH-130, as this would only add 10-15 minutes to their schedule on routes that usually take several days, while unclogging I-35 within the city.

That would require imposing tolls for trucks on I-35 that are greater than SH-130. TxDOT refuses to consider this, because their republican overlords at the capitol are against it.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by enthurzan

For example, if community outreach takes 2 years

it won't

Originally Posted by enthurzan

As you can see, the design period is 4 years. Based on updated OPCC's released recently by ATP, we now know this slow-moving process doubled the expected cost of the project.

How do you figure? you think that ATP should have done 0 design, just started digging randomly in December 2020? Don't wait for FTA grants, don't wait to acquire property, just start knocking down buildings?

Costs didn't double, and inflation wasn't the only driver of the increases (increased property acquisition acreage, tunnel increase, increased contingency, etc.)

[enthurzan]

Originally Posted by Novacek

it won't




How do you figure? you think that ATP should have done 0 design, just started digging randomly in December 2020? Don't wait for FTA grants, don't wait to acquire property, just start knocking down buildings.

Costs didn't double, and inflation wasn't the only driver of the increases (increased property acquisition acreage, tunnel increase, increased contingency, etc.)

Hi Novacek, I would be more than happy to show you my numbers.

1.) Design work should not take 4 years. 6 months, tops. Remember, we are in a high-inflation environment. Every year is another 5-7% increase in costs or $721M. These drafters need to be working 24/7. There needs to be momentum. Slow and steady doesn't win the race whenever additional delays can cost hundreds of millions.

2.) Yes, they should start digging on one part of the line before they acquire all the property on another part of the line, as stated before for inflationary reasons, and also because once the project has started it's harder to stop it. There is momentum. Design should have been decided a long time ago aka the design that maximizes ridership, expand later if you need to.

3.) Even if you take out the $4.1B tunnel, increased contingency, and "increased property acquisition" (a completely made-up number that has zero bases in reality), this project is still 50% more expensive per mile to similar light rail systems & about as expensive as already too-expensive completely underground subway projects in other American cities. Some of these systems were also ridiculously over budget too! I fail to see how this is remotely possible, especially considering I am using the exact same ways to estimate costs as the engineers at ATP lol.

Additionally, ignoring for the moment that Austin's future light rail system is ridiculously expensive even compared to subway systems being built right now in America, I also find it absurd that it is 3-4x more expensive per mile than other light rail systems built in foreign countries with similar labor and material prices. It's absolutely absurd and it must stop.

[enthurzan]

Originally Posted by H2O

That would require imposing tolls for trucks on I-35 that are greater than SH-130. TxDOT refuses to consider this, because their republican overlords at the capitol are against it.

Tolls would be good, but you're right. Toronto does this too, its absurd. They toll the bypass (407 irrc) but don't toll the 401 (the busiest highway on Earth!).

Atlanta does it differently. There are neither tolls on the I-285 bypass nor the connector that goes through downtown. Instead, we just passed a law saying trucks that don't have a delivery in the city nor are getting repaired in the city have to use I-285, which is enforced by state troopers. This has the unfortunate effect of turning the I-285 interchanges in North Atlanta into the most congested highways in America, but alas.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by enthurzan

Design should have been decided a long time ago aka the design that maximizes ridership, expand later if you need to.

That's not design.

That's route.

Design is "This water line needs to be rerouted 3 feet to the left for 300 feet". This sewer line need to be completely redesigned (oh, and still work). All the runoff from all these additional impervious cover will sheet off in this direction, and needs to be handled.

Originally Posted by enthurzan

and "increased property acquisition" (a completely made-up number that has zero bases in reality),

Really? You know off the top of your head the complete list of parcels or partial parcels that need to be acquired? Including those that need to be acquired for utility impacts?

Originally Posted by enthurzan

this project is still 50% more expensive per mile to similar light rail systems

What similar light rail systems? Which other US city is building a completely new light rail system in the years ~2025-2030? That you're comparing against?

Originally Posted by enthurzan

& about as expensive as already too-expensive completely underground subway projects in other American cities.

Name them. Which American city is doing 10 miles of subway later this decade?

Originally Posted by enthurzan

I fail to see how this is remotely possible, especially considering I am using the exact same ways to estimate costs as the engineers at ATP lol.

Doubtful.

Originally Posted by enthurzan

It's absolutely absurd and it must stop.

Yes, you need to stop.

[enthurzan]

Yup, this website has the data on 909 transit projects built across the world. Click "View and Download the Data" to view the table, and "Analysis & Visualization" if you want more information.

Here's another link to a Tweet showing that the North Lamar to Pleasant Valley section (no grade separation), will cost $350-$500M per mile, which, at the low end (no contingency) is 770% more expensive per mile than a similar system built in Atlanta (adjusted for inflation). Note Atlanta's LRT was also built without grade separation. Note the Atlanta LRT was already 30% over budget. Also note, I've run the numbers for Atlanta's planned LRT extension, and its also absurdly expensive even though its literally just an extension of the same type of transit, on land the city mostly owns. Houston's Red Line was built at $70M a mile, adjusted for inflation, or about 6x less than Project Connect. In the following article, transit expert Alon Levy discusses America's high transit cost. He notes LRT usually costs $100M per mile as of 2018 (~$140M in 2023), which is still 2.5x less than Project Connect's lower estimate (without contingency, which will almost surely be used!)

This website discusses transit costs in America, and lists the average of 11 LRT lines in the US as $201M per mile, or about ~$281M in 2023 dollars. that's still 25% less than Project Connect's lower estimate on the at-grade option, which, I must emphasize again, will probably end up being $500M when they inevitably use all the contingency.

Name them. Which American city is doing 10 miles of subway later this decade?

LA purple line extension is doing 9 mi.

Design is "This water line needs to be rerouted 3 feet to the left for 300 feet". This sewer line need to be completely redesigned (oh, and still work). All the runoff from all these additional impervious cover will sheet off in this direction, and needs to be handled.

Correct - this problem usually leads to significant cost overruns. However, in comparable cities, with identical transit, despite running over 30% overbudget, they are still 5-10x cheaper than Project Connect's plan

You mention real estate costs, but light rail and heavy rail have been done for less in cities with MUCH higher property values, which is why I don't buy this &%!@# at all.

As I have said before, and which you can easily find out for yourself, transit project costs in America are insanely high, and something must be done to lower the costs. There are mountains of evidence revealing this problem. The system is broken.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by enthurzan

...(adjusted for inflation)..., adjusted for inflation,...

How are you "adjusting for inflation"? You can't just plug a number into a web site for the _Consumer_ Price Index.

Flat screen TVs getting cheaper doesn't hold down the cost of steel and concrete.

And there's a huge difference in financing costs in a near 0 interest rate environment and a high interest rate one.

Originally Posted by enthurzan

...(~$140M in 2023)... or about ~$281M in 2023 dollars...

But we're not building it in 2023. So even a correct cost adjustment needs to add several more years.

Originally Posted by enthurzan

LA purple line extension is doing 9 mi.

The purple line extension started construction in _2014_.

You're not comparing apples to apples. Austin has to deal with significantly higher costs and financing costs.

If Austin had started construction on a light rail in 2014 (say after a hypothetical 2008 vote), it would be significantly cheaper per mile than the purple line. But we're running about 12 years later.

So you agree that no US city is building a brand new subway system later this decade to compare against?

Originally Posted by enthurzan

770% more expensive per mile than a similar system built in Atlanta (adjusted for inflation). Note Atlanta's LRT was also built without grade separation. Note the Atlanta LRT was already 30% over budget.

What Atlanta light rail? You mean Atlanta's mixed traffic, single track _streetcar_?

The one that's almost nothing like Austin's planned light rail?

I'm not sure why I'm even bothering. That comparison is just so dishonest, it's not even worth responding anymore.

[chinchaaa]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Yes, you need to stop.

finally someone says it.

[enthurzan]

Originally Posted by chinchaaa

finally someone says it.

No, what is ridiculous is accepting insane project costs. It's a major problem that is uniquely American in scope. And it didn't always used to be this way.

How are you "adjusting for inflation"? You can't just plug a number into a web site for the _Consumer_ Price Index.

Flat screen TVs getting cheaper doesn't hold down the cost of steel and concrete.

And there's a huge difference in financing costs in a near 0 interest rate environment and a high-interest rate one.

Correct, there are databases that track material costs which you can use to more accurately use to predict project costs compared to a generic inflation calculator based on CPI, but none of the materials & labor show a remotely similar significant price increase this project requires. While material prices have increased, some more the inflation, none of them even come close to the inflation seen in this project. You're wrong.

Furthermore, I have been told, multiple times, by transit authority PMs working for different cities, that they estimate the initial OPCC by comparing their projects to similar transit systems in other parts of the country. Obviously, this method is not great, and as you can see, the number usually gets a lot higher once they start getting into detailed analysis, but that's how it works buddy. The transit authority leads can't work w/ contractors to determine project costs for obvious reasons (to prevent corruption), so the city will make an estimate, and then ask for bids.

So you agree that no US city is building a brand new subway system later this decade to compare against?

Absolutely not, because that would be incorrect.

Section 3 of the LA Purple line is currently being constructed right now, so you're wrong again.

Toronto is always expanding their subway which is currently under construction, so you're wrong again.

What Atlanta light rail? You mean Atlanta's mixed traffic, single track _streetcar_?

Sure, you got me there, but even if you doubled the track, and even if that tripled the cost, Austin's light rail would still be 3x more expensive. And, you're being dishonest once more, because the North Lamar-Pleasant Valley Alternative Route I was referring to IS mixed traffic. It's a comparable system, with comparable vehicles, comparable construction, comparable infrastructure, & comparable systems. So you're wrong again.

I want to see the actual receipts on the "increase" in ROW costs for this project. As I said before, I don't buy it. Especially for the at-grade options, it runs almost entirely on the street.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by enthurzan

No, what is ridiculous is accepting insane project costs. It's a major problem that is uniquely American in scope. And it didn't always used to be this way.

Yes, transit costs are a lot higher in the US.
But that's not an Austin-specific problem, and not solveable by Austin.

Originally Posted by enthurzan

Correct, there are databases that track material costs which you can use to more accurately use to predict project costs compared to a generic inflation calculator based on CPI, but none of the materials & labor show a remotely similar significant price increase this project requires. While material prices have increased, some more the inflation, none of them even come close to the inflation seen in this project. You're wrong.

Now continue those increases forward several years, until the actual YOE.

And again, it's not just inflation, it's also interest rates.

Originally Posted by enthurzan

Furthermore, I have been told, multiple times, by transit authority PMs working for different cities, that they estimate the initial OPCC by comparing their projects to similar transit systems in other parts of the country.

You literally tried to compare Austin's light rail to Atlanta's mixed traffic, single track streetcar.

You want to compare against similar systems, do so.

Until then, you should apologize to this board for trying to so obviously mislead them.

Originally Posted by enthurzan

Obviously, this method is not great, and as you can see, the number usually gets a lot higher once they start getting into detailed analysis, but that's how it works buddy.

And Austin is doing the detailed analysis. You seem to want them to pretend the costs aren't high, lie to the federal government, and start digging.

Originally Posted by enthurzan

Absolutely not, because that would be incorrect.

Section 3 of the LA Purple line is currently being constructed right now, so you're wrong again.

Exactly, it's building _now_. And has been for the past decade.

It's not starting to build _years in the future_, like Austin's system will be.

You're comparing costs from a decade ago to costs years in the future.

There's no contemporaneous US subway to compare Austin's system against.

Originally Posted by enthurzan

Toronto is always expanding their subway which is currently under construction, so you're wrong again.

At a cost of 20B for 16 km.

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/11/23/ontario-subway-line-costs-doubled/

Explain again how Austin's cost estimates are almost the price of a subway?

Originally Posted by enthurzan

Sure, you got me there, but even if you doubled the track, and even if that tripled the cost, Austin's light rail would still be 3x more expensive. And, you're being dishonest once more, because the North Lamar-Pleasant Valley Alternative Route I was referring to IS mixed traffic. It's a comparable system, with comparable vehicles, comparable construction, comparable infrastructure, & comparable systems. So you're wrong again.

No, it's absolutely — not.

Austin's light rail will have exclusive Right of Way the entire way. It won't share lanes with cars. It won't get stuck behind cars.

That's one reason why RoW costs are so high.

Originally Posted by enthurzan

I want to see the actual receipts on the "increase" in ROW costs for this project. As I said before, I don't buy it. Especially for the at-grade options, it runs almost entirely on the street.

It runs on the existing street, which means the existing lanes move further out. As do the sidewalks and bike infrastructure. Where the city's existing RoW isn't wide enough for all that (almost everywhere) that means property acquisition.
Even more where there's stations.

There were diagrams available from the 15% design stage. It's at least hundreds of impacted properties.

[ATX2030]

I-35 EXPANSION PROJECT
TxDOT unveils new design proposals for I-35 expansion
by: Kelsey Thompson

Posted: Apr 13, 2023 / 11:01 AM CDT

Updated: Apr 13, 2023 / 11:01 AM CDT

https://www.kxan.com/traffic/traffic-pro...new-design-proposals-for-i-35-expansion/

[dilliam]

Originally Posted by ATX2030

I-35 EXPANSION PROJECT
TxDOT unveils new design proposals for I-35 expansion
by: Kelsey Thompson

Posted: Apr 13, 2023 / 11:01 AM CDT

Updated: Apr 13, 2023 / 11:01 AM CDT

https://www.kxan.com/traffic/traffic-pro...new-design-proposals-for-i-35-expansion/

Wow, these are laughably terrible. THE NOTES!? What is this, a children's museum!?

[freerover]

Originally Posted by dilliam

Wow, these are laughably terrible. THE NOTES!? What is this, a children's museum!?

Hopefully that's just a standin representation for public art. Why are they putting these out if the caps and stitches don't have funding?

[H2O]

Originally Posted by freerover

Hopefully that's just a standin representation for public art. Why are they putting these out if the caps and stitches don't have funding?

The bridges (stitches) are being funded by TxDOT for the most part. The caps will be funded by the city (somehow). They are currently studying how to do that and what to put on them. https://www.austintexas.gov/department/our-future-35-austins-cap-and-stitch-program

[freerover]

Originally Posted by H2O

The bridges (stitches) are being funded by TxDOT for the most part. The caps will be funded by the city (somehow). They are currently studying how to do that and what to put on them. https://www.austintexas.gov/department/our-future-35-austins-cap-and-stitch-program

You're incorrect to say that the city will spend 1.2b on the caps. They could fund it just like they could fund anything. No one should be assuming that the city will be able to just find that money lying around. It's possible but certainly not a foregone conclusion.

If the city can't do the 200 million downpayment in a couple years then the state will not even build in the ability to build caps in the future.

[ATX2030]

PROJECT CONNECT

Austin could re-vote on Project Connect this fall — here’s why

by: Kelsey Thompson

Posted: Apr 20, 2023 / 04:21 PM CDT

Updated: Apr 20, 2023 / 04:21 PM CDT

https://www.kxan.com/traffic/traffic-pro...-on-project-connect-this-fall-heres-why/

[freerover]

This would pass next November. Who — knows in an odd year election. Going to be a lot of west mopac voters.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by freerover

This would pass next November. Who — knows in an odd year election. Going to be a lot of west mopac voters.

Hopefully somewhat blunted by the fact that

1) "their guy" is for it

2) pass or fail makes no difference on their tax bills

[sjk]

Just saw this on Reddit...
Death at ABIA?
https://www.reddit.com/r/Austin/comments...utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1