CHICAGO | Economic & Business Development

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by OrdoSeclorum

If we're certain that a recession is on the way, Illinois can simply short the S&P500 and we're guaranteed a perfect hedge. For that matter, so can you. If you're certain about it, nothing's stopping you from getting rich.

Goldman Sachs estimates there's a 35% change of a recession in the next year. That might be a good or bad probability estimate, but anyone who says they know that a recession is coming with strong confidence is lying to themselves.

Ok, others see the chance much higher.

https://www.conference-board.org/res...on-Probability

Even if there isn't a recession, we should be funding those pensions that are billions in the hole.

[sentinel]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Ok, others see the chance much higher.

https://www.conference-board.org/res...on-Probability

Even if there isn't a recession, we should be funding those pensions that are billions in the hole.

Or instead, here's a radical idea: reform the state constitution so that Illinois taxpayers are not perpetually stuck footing the bill for municipal employee pensions, all because of how terribly a shitty amendment was written into law nearly 50 years ago.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by sentinel

Or instead, here's a radical idea: reform the state constitution so that Illinois taxpayers are not perpetually stuck footing the bill for municipal employee pensions, all because of how terribly a shitty amendment was written into law nearly 50 years ago.

Well, that is the best solution, but it won't happen with our current governor and state assembly.

[Kngkyle]

Technically a recession is always coming. It's the timing that is tricky. Historically it comes when people least expect it, not when everyone expects it (like today).

[left of center]

A recession has been "on the way" for at least the last 4 years if you pay attention to the talking heads. The reality of the situation is that the economy is still extremely hot, with half century low joblessness rates, all during a crushing interest rate environment.

Originally Posted by OrdoSeclorum

The messaging around the tax cut would be more valuable to residents than the cut itself. "Illinois is cutting taxes" and "Illinois' in good enough fiscal shape that they can cut taxes. Open for business!" And so on.

I agree with this. I definitely want 95% of the excess revenue going to plugging the pension holes and rainy day funds. But a tiny token tax cut would make headlines in all the news sources that currently say that IL is an economic wasteland with an onerous business killing tax burden that is sending residents packing for greener pastures. A change in image would be worth the small expense.

[nomarandlee]

Originally Posted by sentinel

Or instead, here's a radical idea: reform the state constitution so that Illinois taxpayers are not perpetually stuck footing the bill for municipal employee pensions, all because of how terribly a shitty amendment was written into law nearly 50 years ago.

This. Overwhelmingly this. The idea that the state must be a sinking ship no matter how what due to "beholden promises" even when met with unforeseen economic dynamics or poor financial management of politicians is just insane.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by left of center

A recession has been "on the way" for at least the last 4 years if you pay attention to the talking heads. The reality of the situation is that the economy is still extremely hot, with half century low joblessness rates, all during a crushing interest rate environment.




I agree with this. I definitely want 95% of the excess revenue going to plugging the pension holes and rainy day funds. But a tiny token tax cut would make headlines in all the news sources that currently say that IL is an economic wasteland with an onerous business killing tax burden that is sending residents packing for greener pastures. A change in image would be worth the small expense.

A token tax cut does nothing and if anything is a slap in the face to taxpayers.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

A token tax cut does nothing and if anything is a slap in the face to taxpayers.

Why is that?

And I do think there is the psychological play here others are talking about. But it only makes sense if they don't bring the taxes back up a year later.

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by Randomguy34

Chan and Zuckerberg were reportedly touring Fulton Labs, so they've at least visited Fulton Market. Since the 78 and Bronzeville Lakefront still have a bunch of infrastructure work and already have phase 1 tenants, they are less likely to host the biohub. Fulton Market, Lincoln Yards, and Hyde Park all have labs that are U/C or planned, so they seem like the most likely candidates in my book. If providing access to all 3 universities is a priority, then Fulton Market easily wins on connectivity.

Chan and Zuck have picked Fulton Labs / West End (ugly blocky Trammell Crow building at Fulton/Ogden). This brings them to 85% occupancy.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/tech...market-chicago

Bad news for anyone hoping this would kickstart a new tower or anchor a megadevelopment like Lincoln Yards or Bronzeville Lakefront. I think any of those locations would take much longer to get to opening, and Chan/Zuck seemingly want to move fast. Still, it is good news for Fulton Market, good news for the future Metra stop that is planned there, and overall good news for the city's emerging biotech industry.

As I said before though, it's a shame that we aren't developing a critical mass in one location like Kendall Square. The result will be more like an urbanized Silicon Valley, with biotech workers living all over the place and driving to work at scattered campuses.

[Randomguy34]

Given that this lab is also supposed to connect researchers from Northwestern, UChicago, and UIUC, Fulton Market is pretty much the only area with quick connections to all three locations.

[marothisu]

It's a pretty small amount of space at the end of the day. But i am curious if there's a chance for future space expansion and by how much.

The location makes sense tbh.

[Vlajos]

Not surprising but not good news with downtown vacancy already high.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/comm...o-office-space

[sentinel]

Chicago used to be in the top 10 for a number of years, I hadn't realized it had dropped..but nice to see the City is back in it:

Chicago breaks into top 10 ranking of world financial centers

(Bloomberg) — Chicago has moved into the top 10 and the home of Hollywood has overtaken China’s commercial capital in a fresh ranking of the world’s top financial centers.

Los Angeles took the sixth spot on the Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI), pushing Shanghai into seventh place. Meanwhile, Chicago ranked 8th and was joined by Boston in the top 10, edging out Beijing and Shenzhen.


Overall, the top 10 cities, with the previous year's rankings, are:

1. New York, US (1)
2. London (2)
3. Singapore (3)
4. Hong Kong (4)
5. San Francisco (5)
6. Los Angeles (7)
7. Shanghai (6)
8. Chicago (12)
9. Boston (14)
10. Seoul (11)

The full report further breaks down where each city fits in other ways. Chicago was ranked in 4 of the report's 5 lists of "Top 15 cities" organized by areas of competitiveness. Those are:

Business environment (4th)
Human capital (15th)
Financial sector development (4th)
Reputational and general (5th)

Chicago also had a strong global showing in the reports list of industry sectors, placing in the top 15 in 6 out of the report's 8 lists.

Banking (7th)
Investment management (11th)
Professional services (11th)
Finance (7th)
Fintech (8th)
Trading (11th)

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/fina...ancial-centers

https://www.longfinance.net/media/do...03.23_v1.1.pdf

[Chisouthside]

Cant read behind the paywall, maybe some else can post.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/work...acking-chicago

[Kngkyle]

Originally Posted by Chisouthside

Cant read behind the paywall, maybe some else can post.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/work...acking-chicago

Not much to really report that is new. Chicago is sitting at 51% back to the office whereas the Top 10 markets are averaging 48%. So, Chicago is doing slightly better than average so far in 2023, after being below average for all of 2020-2023. New York is sitting at 47%, LA 48%, Houston at 58%. Chicago has been pretty steady at about 50% since the new year. We'll see if there is an uptick with the better weather. (I know I'll likely be going in to the office more during the summer)

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Chisouthside

Cant read behind the paywall, maybe some else can post.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/work...acking-chicago

It’s just two charts from Kastle Systems data. Possibly some tech layoffs visible in the other cities’ data?

[twister244]

If there's any real message to take away here is that it's going to take a very long time for office use numbers to return to pre-pandemic levels. And it's probably not going to be from folks "returning", but natural growth that eventually fills the crater left.

There's just too many people that have gotten used to working from home/remotely that aren't coming back, no matter what Elon Musk or Jamie Dimon say.

[Randomguy34]

Even more reason why millions of square feet of office space need to be converted residential

[SamInTheLoop]

Originally Posted by twister244

If there's any real message to take away here is that it's going to take a very long time for office use numbers to return to pre-pandemic levels. And it's probably not going to be from folks "returning", but natural growth that eventually fills the crater left.

There's just too many people that have gotten used to working from home/remotely that aren't coming back, no matter what Elon Musk or Jamie Dimon say.

It is never (should be careful about using the word.....but I think prudent here) getting anywhere close to pre-pandemic levels.....in fact, the new equilibrium is pretty much here.....if anything, I'd expect another step back rather than material further progress. What's funny is the massive portion of real estate industry folks who continue to delude themselves....so much so that many are - I kid you not - actually cheering for a recession because they believe that will tip the balance of leverage in the labor market back to employers who will use it to enforce back-to-office mandates. Kid you not, that's a thing. Delusional. And plus, you know what's not good for real estate (typically!), geniuses? Um, recessions.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by SamInTheLoop

It is never (should be careful about using the word.....but I think prudent here) getting anywhere close to pre-pandemic levels.....in fact, the new equilibrium is pretty much here.....if anything, I'd expect another step back rather than material further progress. What's funny is the massive portion of real estate industry folks who continue to delude themselves....so much so that many are - I kid you not - actually cheering for a recession because they believe that will tip the balance of leverage in the labor market back to employers who will use it to enforce back-to-office mandates. Kid you not, that's a thing. Delusional. And plus, you know what's not good for real estate (typically!), geniuses? Um, recessions.

I can assure you it has already started to happen. My company (big, powerful one) has already apparently held back promotions last year for those with poor in office attendance. And they're 100% paying attention and enforcing now. We've been back in the office regularly (hybrid) for nearly 2 years now and only in the last month have I started to get comments from very upper management about specific people under my "control" and how they need to be in the office more. It recently became part of my management dashboard to see every single person's percentage and it's now on weekly staff meeting agendas for us to enforce it. Before this year it was only a suggestion and someone who came in 10% of the time still got a pass. Not anymore.

Other companies have very recently said it (i think Zuckerberg recently strongly suggested it..). I guarantee that companies will start rolling back Hybrid schedules. May not be this year or even next year but it will happen in the next small handful. I know for a fact some companies are using missing financial expectations as an excuse to get people back more often.