Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[madog222]

Amendments to the Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act’s accompanying Regulations
The following amendments are being announced by the Minister of Housing and Diversity and Inclusion:

Enable more work permit holders to purchase a home to live in while working in Canada.
The amendments will allow those who hold a work permit or are authorized to work in Canada under the Immigration and Refugee Protection Regulations to purchase residential property. Work permit holders are eligible if they have 183 days or more of validity remaining on their work permit or work authorization at time of purchase, and they have not purchased more than one residential property. The current provisions on tax filings and previous work experience in Canada are being repealed.

Repealing existing provision so the prohibition doesn’t apply to vacant land.
We are repealing section 3(2) of the regulations, so the prohibition does not apply to all lands zoned for residential and mixed use. Vacant land zoned for residential and mixed use can now be purchased by non-Canadians and used for any purpose by the purchaser, including residential development.

Exception for development purposes.
This exception allows non-Canadians to purchase residential property for the purpose of development. The amendments also extend the exception currently applicable to publicly traded corporations under the Act, to publicly traded entities formed under the laws of Canada or a province and controlled by a non-Canadian.

Increasing the corporation foreign control threshold from 3% to 10%.
For the purposes of the prohibition, with regards to privately held corporations or privately held entities formed under the laws of Canada or a province and controlled by a non-Canadian, the control threshold has increased from 3% to 10%. This aligns with the definition of ‘specified Canadian Corporation’ in the Underused Housing Tax Act.

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/media-new...ntial-property-non-canadians-regulations

[casper]

We should be expecting an audit of the public housing system in BC to be coming out soon.

BC does not operate social housing. Instead it depends on a series of non-profit organizations that operate at arms length each with its own independent board and management.

https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/le...mning-audits-of-housing-agencies-6768666

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by casper

BC does not operate social housing. Instead it depends on a series of non-profit organizations that operate at arms length each with its own independent board and management.

https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/le...mning-audits-of-housing-agencies-6768666

Interesting. I have close to zero familiarity with public housing in BC but my gut feeling is that this is a better model.

Contracting the welfare state out to local-scale non-profits usually works better than operating it directly by the state, from my experience volunteering in Kingston.

[Truenorth00]

^ If it's working so well, why is their affordability so poor?

That's my benchmark for how good a province or cities housing policy is.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

^ If it's working so well, why is their affordability so poor?

That's my benchmark for how good a province or cities housing policy is.

There isn't a lot of social housing, to start. There simply isn't enough social housing to have an impact on the rental market. In addition the land speculation and stringent zoning and convoluted permit / rezoning process has made it increasingly difficult for non-profits to build social housing. My company and Clients can barely make numbers work for essentially "free" land in Vancouver for our typical maximum no rezoning 6-storey woodframe market rentals.

[WarrenC12]

There's a view here that "poverty pimps", those organizations involved in helping the homeless and receiving government money to do so, don't want the situation to improve. The DTES here has literally hundreds of these organizations.

The former head of BC Housing ("resigned" after 10 years during this audit) is married to the head of one of the biggest non-profit housing organizations. They were getting no-bid contracts, and have been exposed with terrible living conditions and treating tenants like crap.

The whole thing is rotten.

[casper]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

There's a view here that "poverty pimps", those organizations involved in helping the homeless and receiving government money to do so, don't want the situation to improve. The DTES here has literally hundreds of these organizations.

The former head of BC Housing ("resigned" after 10 years during this audit) is married to the head of one of the biggest non-profit housing organizations. They were getting no-bid contracts, and have been exposed with terrible living conditions and treating tenants like crap.

The whole thing is rotten.

Some are more effective than others.

Most of these are focused on building housing for working people and seniors.

I do agree the ones that are focused on getting people off the street are not doing a great job.

[rousseau]

This is American, but I'm curious what people's thoughts are on this.


https://twitter.com/tomgara/status/1640445730899763224?s=20

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

There's a view here that "poverty pimps", those organizations involved in helping the homeless and receiving government money to do so, don't want the situation to improve. The DTES here has literally hundreds of these organizations.

The former head of BC Housing ("resigned" after 10 years during this audit) is married to the head of one of the biggest non-profit housing organizations. They were getting no-bid contracts, and have been exposed with terrible living conditions and treating tenants like crap.

The whole thing is rotten.

It is an interesting view. Would you think that they really are that way, or is it more of just a perception thing?

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by rousseau

This is American, but I'm curious what people's thoughts are on this.

Speculation here, but:

California, Washington, and Oregon are suffering from extremely high values coming down and the tech industry retrenchment. Las Vegas and Phoenix are probably experiencing a fall in prices due to overbuilding, as is typical of those locales.

As for the Northeastern US: New York City and Boston have always been expensive, and the DC area is probably riding the continued high of government and associated contractors to it (IIRC, the DC area has the highest median income of the US).

Florida is boomtimes with retirees, and the Southeast/Texas has continued to lure investment in manufacturing. The Rust Belt is coming back from a long nadir too. Middle America (Minnesota/Kansas City et al.) continues its steady growth.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by rousseau

This is American, but I'm curious what people's thoughts are on this.


https://twitter.com/tomgara/status/1640445730899763224?s=20

Can attest that the Buffalo real estate market has been hot for a while. My best friend purchased a house last Fall and had to enter into a bidding war. He paid almost 25% over asking in what used to be a less desirable suburb.
The median home price is much less than Ontario and other locations, but never in my life did I think Western NY would experience RE market jumps like this

Buffalo-Niagara median sales price
January
2013 $115,250
2018 $142,000
2023 $219,900 ($300,000 CAD), Avg Sales price $249,492 ($340,000 CAD)
source: Buffalo Niagara Association of Realtors

The high-end market keeps increasing. There was almost 50 homes selling for over $1M ($1.36M CAD) in 2022. I recall when there was less than 10 selling per year in Buffalo-Niagara.

Tens of thousands of tech jobs were slashed in the past 6 months so that might explain the rapid decrease of the West Coast in USA. Seems to be what SF/San Jose and Seattle all have in common.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

It is an interesting view. Would you think that they really are that way, or is it more of just a perception thing?

Some are absolutely. They benefit from the problem, why take real steps to eliminate it?

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by thewave46

The Rust Belt is coming back from a long nadir too. Middle America (Minnesota/Kansas City et al.) continues its steady growth.

How does that intersect with the narrative of rural/midwestern white decline? Was there too broad a brush applied to the area, i.e. that manufacturing was replaced with meth? Are these real estate indicators too recent to show how much has change/improved?

I never know how to gauge these things. Ohio with 12 million people has a larger GDP than Argentina with 46 million, after all.

[SpongeG]

Many of the people living in tents on the DTES have refused housing when it was offered to them. A variety of mental issues and anti-social issues tend to make them feel like they don't want to be part of society or live by society's rules and living on the street they have formed their own community or families as they like to refer to them. All the social programs and people working down there say we must respect these people's lifestyle choices and let them be etc. and for the most they seem to be enablers rather than problem solvers.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Some are absolutely. They benefit from the problem, why take real steps to eliminate it?

It is interesting that if they do their job well enough, they put themselves out of business.

[Truenorth00]

Today's Federal budget confirmed that banks have a lot of flexibility in restructuring mortgages to ensure owners aren't forced to sell due to today's much higher interest rates

https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/1640812782844104730?t=55LlVZfWUifdTXwf7JTg9g&s=19

[ssiguy]

BC has very little social housing when you take into account the need. The waiting list is years and many people already living in poverty don't qualify.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Interesting. I have close to zero familiarity with public housing in BC but my gut feeling is that this is a better model.

Contracting the welfare state out to local-scale non-profits usually works better than operating it directly by the state, from my experience volunteering in Kingston.

Boggles my mind why people think the city with the worst housing affordability in North America (and perhaps the world) is somehow a model for the rest of the country.

[madog222]

This is about the social housing system which is (generalizing a lot here) one step above shelters. Sure it's part of the overall housing policy but it has nothing to do with the cost of market housing.

Originally Posted by theman23

Boggles my mind why people think the city with the worst housing affordability in North America (and perhaps the world) is somehow a model for the rest of the country.

For how long was the rest of the country's homeless policy to buy them a bus ticket to Vancouver?

[theman23]

Originally Posted by madog222

This is about the social housing system which is (generalizing a lot here) one step above shelters. Sure it's part of the overall housing policy but it has nothing to do with the cost of market housing.




For how long was the rest of the country's homeless policy to buy them a bus ticket to Vancouver?

You’d be surprised by the number of homeless people who get free bus tickets out of town. Not all of them go to BC. Our social workers routinely give out tickets heading east. Regardless, there is no area of housing where BC serves as a model for anyone.