AUSTIN | Transportation Updates

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by enthurzan

The most important issue is getting the most transit for the least cost. "Rising costs" seem to be killing transit projects all around the country, but no one can give me a good explanation of what is causing these "rising costs."

1) several years of multi-decade high inflation.
2) carrying high inflation through into the future for the duration of the project
3) an increased engineering contingency
4) property values in Austin effectively doubling, significantly increasing property acquisition costs.
5) the requirement for tripling the length of the tunnel under the lake, adding billions in costs.

The fact that costs have increased significantly shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.

[enthurzan]

And adding a bunch of new double tracking, while simultaneously running trains through there continually. And drainage issues. And pedestrian crossing infrastructure. And probably structured parking, not a lot…

Once again, not that complicated. No moving parts. Extremely basic stuff.

For example, an entire 30-story skyscraper in Austin costs just about 2x as much, yet is much more complicated & requires an order of magnitude more concrete, steel, labor, etc. etc.

https://www.statesman.com/story/busi...mpus/42863801/

The problem here is weaponized incompetence. This is how construction costs for Project Connect as a whole keep ballooning.

[enthurzan]

Originally Posted by Novacek

1) several years of multi-decade high inflation.
2) carrying high inflation through into the future for the duration of the project
3) an increased engineering contingency
4) property values in Austin effectively doubling, significantly increasing property acquisition costs.
5) the requirement for tripling the length of the tunnel under the lake, adding billions in costs.

The fact that costs have increased significantly shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.

1-2.) Inflation has been 8% since Project connect was passed, yet the expected project costs have doubled.

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/aust...ch-as-planned/

3. As for engineering contingency, I'm not as well versed on what exactly affects that, but it does seem like pie in the sky numbers since its just that- "contingency in case things cost more than we think, things get delayed, things take longer, unexpected problems etc. etc."

4.) I will only accept that if i can see the before/after offers from the property that needs to be seized along the ROA. You can't just handwave and say "well, property prices have doubled in Austin since 2021!" (they haven't). Because that is an average, meaning half of properties in Austin for sale have not doubled since 2021. On top of that, most of the rail line is already along city-owned ROA (aka streets).

5.) Valid point, but we should find ways to reduce that. Use cut and cover as much as possible. Maybe see if Elon Musk's Boring Co. can do it for less. I know for some sections we have to tunnel, but it is ideal to avoid tunneling as much as possible, esp. in regards to how that worked out for the East Side Access tunnel in NYC.

Ideally what should happen as soon as possible is construction begins.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by enthurzan

1-2.) Inflation has been 8% since Project connect was passed, yet the expected project costs have doubled.

You can’t just plan for the past 3 years of inflation, you also have to plan for somewhat high inflation moving forward.

So say 8 or so years of 5-8% inflation is a pretty good chunk of the increase.

Originally Posted by enthurzan

4.) I will only accept that if i can see the before/after offers from the property that needs to be seized along the ROA. You can't just handwave and say "well, property prices have doubled in Austin since 2021!" (they haven't). Because that is an average, meaning half of properties in Austin for sale have not doubled since 2021. On top of that, most of the rail line is already along city-owned ROA (aka streets).
.

Not since 2021. The cost estimates for the project/vote were set in spring 2020. It’s been 3 years of property cost increases, and the whole covid induced run up in Austin prices.

It’s along the roads, but there’s still significant property acquisition required. Unless they want to remove lanes or remove sidewalks (which would be counterproductive for ridership.
All the diagrams and the property required have been made public, and most were posted way earlier in this thread.

[ATX2030]

PROJECT CONNECT
New maps show scaled-back Project Connect light rail plans
The new maps reveal shorter routes than what were initially shown to voters in 2020. The finalized plans will be shown to the public on March 21.

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/po...3-551fc5ea00a5

Author: KVUE staff
Published: 10:32 PM CST March 10, 2023
Updated: 10:32 PM CST March 10, 2023

AUSTIN, Texas — A voter-approved plan to overhaul public transit in Austin is seeing even more changes. New proposals show a significantly scaled-back version of light rail as part of Project Connect.

The initial maps that were shown to voters before they voted on the plan in 2020 showed two light rail routes – one running from North Lamar Boulevard, through downtown and out east to the airport, and a second running from North Lamar Boulevard through downtown and south to Stassney Lane.

Now KVUE has learned that new proposed maps show shorter routes. Some don't go as far north, south or east, depending on the plan.

KVUE spoke with head of the Austin Transit Partnership Greg Canally on Friday. He said the group is still getting feedback from local leaders and amending the plans.

But it’s trying to respect the will of voters, while maintaining a budget.

“I think that two years ago, Austin committed and voted to their future, their transit future, and dedicated a dedicated resources towards that. Here at Austin Transit Partnership, we've been very transparent starting last summer about the work that was in front of us, that we’re first and foremost, we're going to live within the budget that was put forth by the voters with the revenue that they've approved, and then look at taking the vision that they approved and looking at a way to implement the most of that vision here in our first investment,” said Canally.

The Austin Transit Partnership plans to present maps to the public on March 21 to show Austinites what this project could look like now.

The price tag of the entire Project Connect plan has only gone up since voters approved it. In 2020, it was set to cost just over $7 billion. But the most recent estimate from last spring puts the cost of light rail alone at more than $10 billion.

Austin-area State Rep. Ellen Troxclair filed House Bill 3899 this week, also known as the "No Blank Checks Act." It essentially aims at Project Connect and the Austin Transit Partnership's role in it.

It would force ATP to work just like cities and counties when issuing debt, so if the project cost goes up more, it would have to go to voters again. That bill hasn't been assigned to any committees for debate just yet.

[paul78701]

I get that paring the system down was going to be needed, but what we appear to be getting is extremely different from the expectations that were originally set. This will not play well with the public and may be problematic when it comes to future ballot measures for expanding the system.

[freerover]

Originally Posted by paul78701

I get that paring the system down was going to be needed, but what we appear to be getting is extremely different from the expectations that were originally set. This will not play well with the public and may be problematic when it comes to future ballot measures for expanding the system.

Once the system is operational in any of these proposed forms, we'll never lose another rail expansion again.

[enthurzan]

Originally Posted by paul78701

I get that paring the system down was going to be needed, but what we appear to be getting is extremely different from the expectations that were originally set. This will not play well with the public and may be problematic when it comes to future ballot measures for expanding the system.

It's probably going to end up even worse than what is being presented in that article. At the end of the day, we might end up with a light rail line that runs from the airport to downtown, nothing else, that is still 50% overbudget, delayed, and has low ridership. I have zero faith in local government to do anything right. 4 years and they couldn't even fix the Zilker train, how are they supposed to build a huge rail system if they can't even fix a kiddy train in the park?

[enthurzan]

Originally Posted by Novacek

You can’t just plan for the past 3 years of inflation, you also have to plan for somewhat high inflation moving forward.

So say 8 or so years of 5-8% inflation is a pretty good chunk of the increase.



Not since 2021. The cost estimates for the project/vote were set in spring 2020. It’s been 3 years of property cost increases, and the whole covid induced run up in Austin prices.

It’s along the roads, but there’s still significant property acquisition required. Unless they want to remove lanes or remove sidewalks (which would be counterproductive for ridership.
All the diagrams and the property required have been made public, and most were posted way earlier in this thread.

This is why it's imperative to get started ASAP and buy all property. I am reading "The Power Broker" at the moment, and I just so happened to run across a passage that was very pertinent to this issue: In this passage, Moses is presenting his idea for a city-wide network of parkways in 1930. "It would be expensive to buy land along some of the other parkways. But it was never going to become cheaper. It was only going to become more expensive. It should be bought now." (P. 343)

[ATX2030]

Originally Posted by enthurzan

It's probably going to end up even worse than what is being presented in that article. At the end of the day, we might end up with a light rail line that runs from the airport to downtown, nothing else, that is still 50% overbudget, delayed, and has low ridership. I have zero faith in local government to do anything right. 4 years and they couldn't even fix the Zilker train, how are they supposed to build a huge rail system if they can't even fix a kiddy train in the park?

Holy cow they can't even get the Zilker Zephyr up and running. Sucks. Loved riding that thing when I was a kid!

https://www.kut.org/austin/2023-01-2...ark-mini-train

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by enthurzan

It's probably going to end up even worse than what is being presented in that article. At the end of the day, we might end up with a light rail line that runs from the airport to downtown, nothing else, that is still 50% overbudget, delayed, and has low ridership. I have zero faith in local government to do anything right. 4 years and they couldn't even fix the Zilker train, how are they supposed to build a huge rail system if they can't even fix a kiddy train in the park?

Luckily, the Austin Parks Foundation is not in charge of project connect.

Nor is ATP buying a train some guy built in his garage. And I’ll assure you these ones will have breaks.

[freerover]

Originally Posted by ATX2030

Holy cow they can't even get the Zilker Zephyr up and running. Sucks. Loved riding that thing when I was a kid!

https://www.kut.org/austin/2023-01-2...ark-mini-train

Cap metro, ATP and ATD have jack shit to do with the zilker train. That’s parks dept and the parks foundation non profit.

[enthurzan]

"Well, CapMetro isn't the parks dept." blah blah blah. I have yet to see different results from the two. It's incompetence & procedural fetish, plain and simple. Why has it taken 2 years to get started on Project Connect? Why do the original plans call for four years of planning? Let's get a move on. Let's get shovels in the ground tomorrow. There is no reason for "planning" to take 4 years. It doesn't take 4 years to design a transit system. It doesn't take 4 years to do the blueprints.

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/...till-on-track/

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by enthurzan

Why has it taken 2 years to get started on Project Connect?

It hasn’t. The McKalla rail station and the PV/expo lines are under active construction right now.

[Lobotomizer]

Someone upthread mentioned weaponized incompetence. I like it. I've lost faith in the COA, and all other various pseudo government organizations affiliated with the city. APD, Capital Metro, ABIA, Austin Water, Austin Energy....All borderline, if not outright inept.

[freerover]

This is morphing into the DT of surelyhorns.

[enthurzan]

Originally Posted by Novacek

It hasn’t. The McKalla rail station and the PV/expo lines are under active construction right now.

I'm talking about the construction of new lines. The orange and blue lines should have been started already. Blueprints should have been finished a long time ago, and dirt should have started moving. They should ideally be working as fast as possible, around the clock, until they run out of money(if), and then ask for more if they need it. As you said, inflation gets worse every year, so it makes sense to do this as fast as possible to avoid higher costs later.

The current "method" doesn't work. It's the same shit in Atlanta: 2-4 years of "studies" for their version of Project Connect (called MoreMARTA), the costs inflate by 100%, the project scope gets cut in half, etc., etc. I have zero faith in any of the people who "lead" this project to actually get it done right. Why can't they just do what they originally promised? It's not that hard. It's not rocket science.

Frankly, I am sick and tired of this rigamarole they keep putting us through

[enthurzan]

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

Someone upthread mentioned weaponized incompetence. I like it. I've lost faith in the COA, and all other various pseudo government organizations affiliated with the city. APD, Capital Metro, ABIA, Austin Water, Austin Energy....All borderline, if not outright inept.

It's not just Austin. Go look at any government transit agency around the country and you'll find the same incompetence. In Atlanta, this exact same problem is happening with their transit expansion plan - overpromising and under-delivering, 4 years of "studies," and ultimately the project gets neutered. Go look at NYC with the 2nd Ave. Subway and East Side Access - the most expensive mile of subway on the planet. Go look at Project Vogtle in GA - $14B over budget and 7 years behind schedule. You'll see the same stuff when you look at Caltrain, Amtrak, the MTA, etc etc. Its a massive problem. America can't build anymore.

[hereinaustin]

Originally Posted by enthurzan

It's not just Austin. Go look at any government transit agency around the country and you'll find the same incompetence. In Atlanta, this exact same problem is happening with their transit expansion plan - overpromising and under-delivering, 4 years of "studies," and ultimately the project gets neutered. Go look at NYC with the 2nd Ave. Subway and East Side Access - the most expensive mile of subway on the planet. Go look at Project Vogtle in GA - $14B over budget and 7 years behind schedule. You'll see the same stuff when you look at Caltrain, Amtrak, the MTA, etc etc. Its a massive problem. America can't build anymore.

At the risk of derailing this topic, this occurs because our monetary system is garbage. It’s literally designed to be inflationary (and thus deceptive).

[Lobotomizer]

It's all just so frustrating, and disappointing because a couple of years ago I truly believed the full scope of Project Connect, along with the grand plans they showed us for ABIA were going to be completed, or well along in the construction process by the end of this decade.

These are grand transportation projects, "big city" stuff if you will. Along with the skyline growth, major corporate relocations, and everything else going on in this city I believed we were on the brink of truly arriving as a major American metropolis.

Now Project Connect looks like it's gonna be a system fit for a city half our size, if even that. I legitimately would not have voted for the plan if those latest 4 options were what was being proposed. As someone mentioned before, the 2014 plan was infinitely superior, and would be operating today.

ABIA seems to be making poor decisions, perpetually dragging their feet, and in general just thinking small.