Quote:
Originally Posted by hipster duck
Unlike the EU, the USMCA is not an economic union but a trade pact covering specific industries. If it has favourable (or, at least, not unfavourable) terms for Canada, it's in sectors that are important for Canadian exporters, but not for Quebec exporters, like auto parts. If Quebec separates, it will have to sit at the bargaining table with the US like the rest of us did, only as a distant 4th partner and one where the number 2 trading partner can score domestic political points fucking them over.
China is 3.5% of Quebec's exports, vs. the US' 85% and getting diplomatically cozier with China on the US' doorstep is something a rogue authoritarian state would do.
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Henry Kissinger: The United States doesn't have any permanent friends or allies, only interests.
I strongly doubt that the US would side with the ROC just to make Quebec's life miserable, unless it aligned perfectly with a measure that would be 100% good for the ROC and the US, and detrimental to Quebec. (A rather unlikely proposition considering the very broad aspects of trade, IMO.)
I also really really don't see the ROC getting anywhere by threatening the US that Canada(-sans-Québec) won't trade with the Americans if the Americans also trade with those evil people in Quebec.
Bottom line is that the Americans will want to continue to trade with the ROC (Texas-sized demographics + more resources than TX) and Quebec (New Jersey or Virginia-sized demographics + more resources than those states) and whatever they want, they will get.
I don't necessarily agree that Quebec would cozy up to China that much, but the EU as has been mentioned just a few minutes ago, is a definite possibility.