DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by bulldurhamer

crime comes and goes. i don't think it's really a long term driver for people deciding whether to stay in their million dollar city center property or not. most of my neighbors in the city center have hunkered down and taken on renovation projects and such, even with gunfire ringing out throughout the day or night could be a possibility.

however, if you're in my boat and you see the local neighborhood schools closing, resulting from the complete abomination that is school choice in denver, you are left without a choice. people want to raise their kids in neighboords with other kids. that's just not really possible in many of these neighborhoods as the local elementary schools get completely neglected and everyone and all the resources go to the popular school somewhere else.

the mayoral candidates love crime and homelessness, but neither are really that impactful to most of us. what is impactful is what is there for our children to do. in our case, the local school is slated to be closed! so are we going to leave? of course we are. we want to be around other kids and in a neighborhood community with other kids. so it's not crime that's forcing our move. it's not even the price of land. it's simply the destructive policies that are so popular nobody will ever touch but it leaves enormous holes in the neighborhoods. there are virtually no kids anywhere in the city center neighborhoods. that's freaking crazy...

^laying on the floor avoiding bullets and avoiding your neighborhood park because of gunfire is not impactful to your decision to move your kids elsewhere? You've got a tough stomach I guess. Most the folks I know are moving or have moved PRECISELY because of those reasons and some of those other reasons you rightly call out.

To move this back to development, I've long advocated for pocket parks in the city center to set the groundwork for families to be there in the future in dense housing. Can't really raise kids without space outside for them and Denver could do a MUCH better job of installing pocket parks everywhere - like funding in-building recreation spaces of privately owned structures. Case in point:

City - 'hey developer, instead of building this ground floor retail space that will sit empty, why don't you dedicate your first floor to a recreational pool and rooftop tennis court and playgrounds with access to each separate from your lobby but open to the public and no, you don't have to provide any parking for it. By the way, we'll give you $2 million to build it'.

Developer - (thinking to themselves) - 'I have to do a green roof anyway and the rooftop tennis court with playground gets me out of that requirement and with the extra elevator core all this only costs me $500k. I also get an amenity to building residents and I can pay $500k to build that pool instead of leaving the ground floor vacant. There's $1 million in this for us...sure!'

City wins because it would cost them $40 million to do those two things because they'd have to build a full on rec center to get it. Unfortunately, our government would only focus on the fact that the developer stood to make $1 million and would lose sight of the fact that they were providing a public benefit that otherwise could not be obtained. The City also refuses to indemnify private property owners which would crush this entire idea if the City were even creative enough to pursue it - a whole separate issue.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Tykendo

Fox news is trash. I just moved from Denver to Portland...

Fox is purely political, and makes sure it shows the worst of the worst.

You may be among the many who don't realize Fox News Cable has three separate and distinct divisions.

The Entertainment Division
which most people think of is indeed pure propaganda with good doses of crazy attached. Given that this division is a cable ratings leader and makes boatloads of money, I'm always amazed that so many people have nothing better to do with their time. But it is what it is

The News Division
Totally separate and it doesn't get great ratings but the news division afaik has always been deemed highly credible.

Fox News Digital
is the web division and has a distinct agenda which is to print all the crime in liberal cities they can find. That said, they don't make stuff up; they simply use local news organization as their source for crime pieces.

I picked up a young couple from Portland, born and raised, who live in the Hillsboro area so they don't pay any attention to what's going on in downtown. At their young age they're mostly concerned about "what's for dinner" and which friends they're going to meet up with over the weekend. They like living in Portland.

It's certainly fair to say all issues have more than one side and viewpoint.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Dunno, the city is still processing the site development and transportation plans with the last update being published as of January 30th of this year. So maybe it's still alive and this is just some poor text choice on the architects website.

All of the other active projects on this arch's website have a status that says 'In-Design'. Unfortunately, methinks this one is dead...

[TakeFive]

What a Crazy Upside-Down World we live in

Originally Posted by Darius C

Denverite's Nathaniel Minor reporting:
https://denverite.com/2023/03/01/rtd-rider-rules-we-rode-all-day/
My headline is unfair to RTD since they are trying to do something about it. Note that I sympathize with the people sheltering on trains, but it is simply untenable to let them take over public spaces, especially if some are quick to act violently. After several midday incidents, I now hesitate to use public transportation in Denver.

This could be laughable if it weren't for the fact that billions of $'s are at risk.

Here, I thought the purpose of (public) transportation was to Take Cars Off the Road?

What Ordinary Joe or Juanita would NOT prefer a Fentanyl-free, quiet, safe trip from door to door on Rideshare as apposed to riding RTD's new Fentanyl trains of crazy people?

I am very clear that especially at the end of the workday people will pay for a peaceful ride home. I routinely ask: "Are you glad to be going home" and get a quick affirmative response.

They reopened the sanitized bathrooms in the Bus Hall and the addicts are back to using them for Fentanyl privacy?

It's as though on the one hand Denver spends gobs of money to address the homeless etc problem while on the other hand enabling and perpetuating the problem. It's a disservice to the community, both would-be transit riders and the addicts as well.

I totally support RTD's plan for a zero tolerance policy

You have to wonder how the voters in the seven+ counties RTD district feel? Presumably the RTD Board of Directors will tell us.

[TakeFive]

Dateline Ausin TX

The NIMBY's have landed

I picked up a young couple from Austin who claimed that traffic was getting worse and worse and locals were more and more against growth.

Meanwhile, Peter Rogoff was in town to advise Austin for how to proceed with Project Connect transit plan in order to receive federal FTA funding. Cost estimates have doubled and a whole new redesigned vision for better transit will be released in the future.

Dateline Scottsdale AZ

In 2019, Scottsdale passed a $319 million bond issue; the usual stuff of roadway and pedestrian improvements, needed improvements for fire and police. Current estimates say it will cost 40% more than was budgeted.

It make one wonder how Denver is doing with their $937 million Elevate Denver Bond program approved in 2017 as well as the $260 million RISE Denver bonds passed in Nov 2021. At least they got a fast start with the Elevate Program as many of the projects had already been substantially vetted.

I saw where Denver recently started construction of the new bridge on Larimer Street over Cherry Creek.

Dateline Seattle WA

Saturday, I picked up this bright, young, happy lady flying back to Seattle. She was happy with their new light rail lines under construction. She was so happy that she tipped me $10 on a $12 fare (to me) which made me happy too.

[TakeFive]

Kimpton Hotel at Belleview Station Tops Out
March 2, 2023 - Mile High CRE

This week, Kimpton Hotels & Restaurants, part of IHG Hotels & Resorts’ Luxury & Lifestyle Collection, joined Harvey Cleary Builders and KGD Architecture to celebrate the topping off of the new Kimpton Hotel at Belleview Station.

The 19-story, 155,970-square-foot hotel features 190 guest rooms and 14 suites over 14 floors. Anticipated to open in early 2024, the hotel is the third Kimpton hotel in Denver and will be the first boutique hotel in the neighborhood, serving the Belleview Station development and its surrounding businesses and local residents.

Correction Needed


Courtesy of Continuum Partners

Hotel Born in Downtown Denver to be Rebranded Limelight Denver
February 23, 2023 - Mile High CRE

Denver-based Continuum Partners LLC, has sold an interest in the Kimpton Hotel Born, located adjacent to Union Station at 1600 Wewatta St., to Aspen Hospitality, the hospitality division of Aspen Skiing Company. The newly formed joint venture marks the beginning of the hotel’s future conversion to Limelight Denver.

“With Limelight Denver, we are excited to expand our brand beyond mountain and ski locations into an urban market,” said Alinio Azevedo, chief executive officer, Aspen Hospitality. “The Limelight portfolio has become synonymous with community and adventure, making Denver a natural fit for the brand. The city is a launch-point for many guests who come to experience Colorado’s great outdoors and we’re thrilled to embrace the local character of this market as we move into our next chapter of growth.”

[TakeFive]

If you were referring to Globeville

Originally Posted by gopokes21

Can anyone who tracks projects point me toward a listing of all development underway in Globeville and Elyria-Swansea?

It occurred to me later you might have been thinking about all the Fox Park stuff.

Development firm pays $12 million for nearly 3 acres near Fox Park
Mar 6, 2023 By Kate Tracy – Reporter , Denver Business Journal

The area around the future Fox Park development in Globeville continues to attract developers — and multimillion-dollar investments.

An LLC associated with Denver-based Urban Green Development purchased a site at 805 W. 38th Ave. for $12 million on Feb. 24, according to property records.

Props to Andy Cushen, DenverInfill's recent addition on the writing side

We've had discussion around adding density in general and Andy has been covering various neighborhoods which I love. I like knowing what is also going on development-wise in other neighborhoods - in addition to downtown. Andy recently posted a great Evans Station Roundup

With respect to the Fox Park redevelopment and nearby areas, Andy had a nice update back in September of 2022. While we have posted individual projects here it's nice to have those Updates on DenverInfill.

[rds70]

Rendering of 2000 Welton, the next X Denver project (either 3 or 4 depending on how you count the projects). 23 stories, 262 feet, 344 units, LJC Architects:



Detail of the 20th and Welton corner treatment:

[rds70]

Renderings of 10th and Acoma. 18 stories, 195 feet, +/-250 units, Juno Residential is the architect and developer, Mass timber building:

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by rds70

Rendering of 2000 Welton, the next X Denver project (either 3 or 4 depending on how you count the projects). 23 stories, 262 feet, 344 units, LJC Architects:

I like those two trees peaking out from the 19th floor to see if they can spot any Hotties below.

For an X project I kinda like the rendering.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

I like those two trees peaking out from the 19th floor to see if they can spot any Hotties below.

For an X project I kinda like the rendering.

Really? It kind of reminds me of those DU buildings with tiny window slots as you drive by on I25.

https://www.google.com/maps/@39.6853165,...ZPTE8tRPIgpmCmhpcVcSA!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

[dasaudi]

[QUOTE=rds70;9885956]Rendering of 2000 Welton, the next X Denver project (either 3 or 4 depending on how you count the projects). 23 stories, 262 feet, 344 units, LJC Architects:

The color palette reminds me of the Mirabella at ASU in Tempe, AZ. Not at all an X project, but it turned out nice.

https://structurae.net/en/media/377847-mirabella

My image on Structurae.

https://structurae.net/en/structures/mirabella

[i4isoar]

Originally Posted by MovinOnUp

The "Would have" is coming across a little bitter.

While I'd be sad to see this go - it was a little generic for such a central tower that could have a defining impact on the skyline. Not holding by breath, but would hope for something more unique (and much taller) to go here.

FWIW, this was one of my favorite iterations of 16th and California:

Originally Posted by laniroj

All of the other active projects on this arch's website have a status that says 'In-Design'. Unfortunately, methinks this one is dead...

Do we know yet what killed it? I hope it wasn't the small, frivolous curb-cut issue...

Though I like to think that whenever one door closes, another opens. Here's to hoping that one day, someone will be able to take over the 2 empty lots on that block and the Target as well, then combine all 3 lots and build a true megascraper on the site. (As much as I like that Target and believe it's good to have at least one supermarket directly on the Mall... I'd be okay with seeing it go if it meant we were getting a new city-defining landmark in its place).

Originally Posted by rds70

Rendering of 2000 Welton, the next X Denver project (either 3 or 4 depending on how you count the projects). 23 stories, 262 feet, 344 units, LJC Architects:

Originally Posted by dasaudi

The color palette reminds me of the Mirabella at ASU in Tempe, AZ. Not at all an X project, but it turned out nice.

https://structurae.net/en/media/377847-mirabella

My image on Structurae.

https://structurae.net/en/structures/mirabella

Looks great! My goodness - they haven't even finished X2 and they're already planning for X3. But with how long the permitting process takes, it's probably better to get started sooner rather than later.

[TakeFive]

There's an old saying that: "they don't ring a bell before the markets are about to take a header"
Or "they don't ring a bell at the top and bottom of markets."

Some have suggested that Twitter, Reddit etal were ringing bells...

A little concerning?

Moody’s cuts outlook on U.S. banking system to negative, citing ‘rapidly deteriorating operating environment’
MAR 14 2023 By Jeff Cox - CNBC

So what could this mean for RE development - in Denver?
Who can predict these things? No me!

New construction starts could come to a screeching halt (exceptions always possible) at least for some period of time. Current construction should continue unless thing get really, really bad which I don't anticipate.

Liberals continue to claim that the country is in need of many millions of (more affordable) housing units. While not a fan of these statistics, it is fair to say there is no oversupply of housing - in Denver. One thing that Congress could do is to increase the funding for the LIHTC program.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

....So what could this mean for RE development - in Denver?
Who can predict these things? No me!

New construction starts could come to a screeching halt (exceptions always possible) at least for some period of time. Current construction should continue unless thing get really, really bad which I don't anticipate.

Liberals continue to claim that the country is in need of many millions of (more affordable) housing units. While not a fan of these statistics, it is fair to say there is no oversupply of housing - in Denver. One thing that Congress could do is to increase the funding for the LIHTC program.

New construction starts (single family) are already seeing huge declines which will likely continue. I anticipate construction costs will break sometime this year once current project pipelines get built out - asset pricing has already broken across most spectrums. If costs break, I could see some stabilization in single family and likely continued decent production in multifamily. That's the "soft landing" for real estate.


IMO the other scenario looks much more ominous and seems to be where we are headed and it involves capital drying up and waiting for some certainty in the world. There's still equity capital but it's much more selective than a year ago and requires a meaningfully higher risk-adjusted return. The debt side has been tightening for a year now, likely much more quickly after the past week's events going forward.

As to your supply opinions, please read these and study these graphs...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=HOUST,HOUST1F,HOUST5F,
^You'll notice starts beginning to drop

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST1F
^You'll notice that when you were 20 and our population was 30% less than what it is today, we were producing the same amount of actual housing units (I often mention this and you often refute this being a material factor in housing affordability).

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/us-housing-supply-shortage-crisis-2022/672240/

[TakeFive]

It never hurts to review ground that has been previously covered

Originally Posted by laniroj

As to your supply opinions, please read these and study these graphs...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=HOUST,HOUST1F,HOUST5F,
^You'll notice starts beginning to drop

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST1F
^You'll notice that when you were 20 and our population was 30% less than what it is today, we were producing the same amount of actual housing units (I often mention this and you often refute this being a material factor in housing affordability).

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/us-housing-supply-shortage-crisis-2022/672240/

I understand that memories are short but the Great Recession/Financial Crises wasn't THAT long ago.

Despite the various spin from Conservatives the triggers were simply classic Greed and Fraud. It was enabled by fancy dancy new software that failed miserably because "garbage in, garbage out" ie LIAR loans.

Wall Street made $billions by buying homes for 50 cents on the dollar. That hardly speaks to a housing shortage. In fact housing units exceeded demand by million of units. It's fair to point out that the areas most impacted were Phoenix, Las Vegas, Inland California and Florida. Colorado was only briefly and marginally impacted so it's understandable you'd forget about all this. Texas was only marginally impacted because Texas kept growing and growing right through the recession.

We became a Rental Nation

Historically, new starter home development led 'us' out of recessions but this time was very different.

The Great Millennial Migration

Millions of new apartments were built all over the country but especially in cities like Denver; Denver is one of the poster children for this as Millennials flocked to Denver but they all wanted to live in the urban center in apartments.

wong reminded us that due the Great Recession it was very difficult for young buyers to get loans for new homes for the few that wanted to buy. Believe it or not, but there was a period when builders were afraid to build new starter homes in the Denver suburbs because they weren't sure Millennials wanted to live there so any new home construction catered to upscale needs.

We've all come to appreciate the length of time it takes to build one land barge (let alone lots of them) in downtown. So even while the lust for home ownership has returned you can't just turn on a faucet and spew out new homes. It takes years. There has also been various logistical problems.

Bottom Line: The fact that fewer new single family 'ownership' homes have been built than historical averages should not come as a surprise given that we've become a Rental Nation.

Footnote: Despite the high regard for The Atlantic, I'd rather stick to the facts (as I see them) and not read spin from either the Left or the Right.

[TakeFive]

What is This?

akin Golden Triangle - 990 Bannock


Representatives from Pinkard, Revesco, Alpine and OZ break ground on akin Golden Triangle


Rendering of akin Golden Triangle, courtesy of OZ Architecture.

12-Story Multifamily Project Breaks Ground in Denver’s Golden Triangle
March 15, 2023 - Mile High CRE

On March 14, Revesco Properties/Alpine Investments (RPAI), Pinkard Construction, and OZ Architecture celebrated the groundbreaking for akin Golden Triangle, a 12-story, multifamily project. Construction commenced in early February and is expected to continue into Q4 of 2024. The luxury-boutique building will contain 98 units of multifamily and amenities.

Financing?

Equity for the project was provided by Cohen & Steers and Posterus Partners. The project’s construction lender is MidWestOne Bank.

[TakeFive]

What we need is more Affordable housing, No?

Peoria Crossing 1 - 3002 N. PEORIA


Courtesy Peoria Crossing 1

AHA to Begin Final Phase of Affordable Housing Project in Aurora
March 14, 2023 - Mile High CRE

On Wednesday, March 15 the Housing Authority of the City of Aurora (AHA) will begin construction of the second and final phase of Peoria Crossing. The 2.3-acre transit-oriented site is adjacent to Peoria Crossing I and will add 72 units of affordable housing to round out the multifamily campus to 154 units.

How affordable are these?

The affordable housing project will serve households earning between 30 and 60 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI). 14 units will be reserved for project-based vouchers that will serve very low-income families.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

What is This?

akin Golden Triangle - 990 Bannock


Representatives from Pinkard, Revesco, Alpine and OZ break ground on akin Golden Triangle


Rendering of akin Golden Triangle, courtesy of OZ Architecture.

12-Story Multifamily Project Breaks Ground in Denver’s Golden Triangle
March 15, 2023 - Mile High CRE

Financing?

I see Parq II in that rendering. Hopefully that one starts soon as well

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

I see Parq II in that rendering. Hopefully that one starts soon as well

Gotta say, I really do enjoy this high effort architecture. I wish more local developers had financial capacity to do this because the out of state merchant builders will never put this much thought and money into architecture...or so they haven't historically.

https://milehighcre.com/12-story-multifamily-project-breaks-ground-in-denvers-golden-triangle/