DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[TakeFive]

Could Colorado override local zoning codes to allow more density? It’s ‘part of the conversation’ as a major land use bill takes shape
Feb 16, 2023 By Andrew Kenney and Nathaniel Minor - CPR News

As the year began, Gov. Jared Polis put Colorado on notice: He wants to implement sweeping changes to how the state handles growth and development.

In his marquee State of the State speech, Polis repeated the word “housing” nearly 40 times, building on an earlier interview where he said that the state needs to encourage denser development by loosening local rules.

I suspect this is the beginning of a good conversation at the state level but I wouldn't expect any dramatic results this year.

How much influence does the Governor have and what will his position be?

In a statement, Polis said that his team had been working with “more than 100” leaders in business, housing, local governments and environmental fields. “Although we don’t have a bill yet, we are closer,” the statement read.

Another interesting question is if this might give Republicans a tangible, relevant issue to campaign on as apposed to conspiracy 🞵🞵🞵🞵 - and not sure how relevant cultural issues are to Coloradoans either, maybe a little bit at the margin?

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mishko27

I would not take this data seriously at all - anyone in Denver looking at property outside of Denver is counted as someone with the intention to leave. I was helping my sister in law look for a house in SLC, and looked at some houses my boss was looking at in Bethesda, Redfin thus counts this as me "looking elsewhere".

Also the Rent.com data shows the difference between Coloradans searching for rental properties in state and out of state. It does not control for college students who are about to graduate for example - people who are more likely to be renting than anyone else, and likely to do so in whatever state they came from.

Again, the data is kinda 🞵🞵🞵🞵.

Sometimes you don't need data because everyone you know who used to live in Denver has already left. Maybe it's just me, but seems everyone not in Central Park lit a fire in the alley and blasted John Denver jet plan on their way out.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

...I suspect this is the beginning of a good conversation at the state level but I wouldn't expect any dramatic results this year...

I wouldn't be too surprised if a bill gets introduced and passed. Polis has absolutely made housing his mission this term (in addition to the train to boulder/longmont). I sort of think he is telling folks, no rent control it will get vetoed but open to state zoning overrides...in any case, I doubt a state zoning bill would have much effect. It's likely to only outlaw single family only zoning and maybe allow for ADUs, but it won't lead to any meaningful housing production.

[rds70]

Final design of AMLI 8th and Broadway - 16 stories, 186 feet, 366 units, Davis Partnership Architects:

[rds70]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Sometimes you don't need data because everyone you know who used to live in Denver has already left. Maybe it's just me, but seems everyone not in Central Park lit a fire in the alley and blasted John Denver jet plan on their way out.

I know no one who has left Denver - friends or coworkers.

As a matter of fact, I am hiring a new employee and 1/4 of the applicants are from outside Colorado.

I continue to see many out of state license plates, the most from Florida and Texas, followed by many midwest states.

[Darius C]

... on the list of ugliest buildings in the world:
https://www.buildworld.co.uk/blog/archives/the-ugliest-buildings-in-the-world
It is an odd list. But, hey, you cannot argue with the "Study & Research" category of Buildworld.

[DenverInfill]

What a stupid list. Here's what they said about DIA:

"Denver Airport’s canopy was the world’s largest fabric roof when it was hung in 1995. This elegant solution put a troubled refurb back on schedule and budget while creating an airy alternative to the common ‘warehouse-effect’ airport. But the devil is in the details: creepy artworks, a talking gargoyle and a Freemasonry-themed dedication stone promote the theory that the airport is actually a lair for Illuminati lizards."

I'm not sure what they mean by "refurb" since this was new construction, but anyway, they actually give props to the canopy roof and overall building results while citing some of the interior artwork and the dedication stone as apparently the things that makes the airport "ugly" and, thus, included in this list. In other words, this is worthless nonsense.

[TakeFive]

The good, the bad and the weird at the first 9News Denver mayor debate
Feb. 17, 2023 By Kyle Harris/Denverite

IMO, Chris Hansen has made a strong case for being elected Mayor. He caught flack for his TV ad that reportedly picked on 'people of color.' Nice way to avoid the real issue (homelessness) by creating a sideshow issue. I watched the ad and couldn't even distinguish anybody's color.

'Creating social housing' was a hot topic. I'm ambivalent partly because the money needed to fund it doesn't grow on trees but perhaps it could help, not sure.

I've always admired Kelly Brough, both her history and her resume of accomplishments but she's being attacked by the liberals which I figured would happen.

[i4isoar]

Originally Posted by Darius C

... on the list of ugliest buildings in the world:
https://www.buildworld.co.uk/blog/archives/the-ugliest-buildings-in-the-world
It is an odd list. But, hey, you cannot argue with the "Study & Research" category of Buildworld.

Originally Posted by DenverInfill

What a stupid list. Here's what they said about DIA:

"Denver Airport’s canopy was the world’s largest fabric roof when it was hung in 1995. This elegant solution put a troubled refurb back on schedule and budget while creating an airy alternative to the common ‘warehouse-effect’ airport. But the devil is in the details: creepy artworks, a talking gargoyle and a Freemasonry-themed dedication stone promote the theory that the airport is actually a lair for Illuminati lizards."

I'm not sure what they mean by "refurb" since this was new construction, but anyway, they actually give props to the canopy roof and overall building results while citing some of the interior artwork and the dedication stone as apparently the things that makes the airport "ugly" and, thus, included in this list. In other words, this is worthless nonsense.

Yep. I wouldn't put too much stock in the opinion of a website that (1) by its own admission, is ranking the building primarily on its interior artwork rather than its exterior appearance, and (2) believes that the majority of ugly buildings in the world are located only in the Anglophone world. There are literally thousands of buildings uglier than DIA in countries like Russia, China, India, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, the 'stans...

Hell, even Singapore, which is otherwise one of the cleanest and most beautiful cities in the world, has some incredibly ugly buildings that are even more unsightly than DIA.

All that being said, I actually kinda like the look of the Ryugyong Hotel, and believe it shouldn't be so high up on that list.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by rds70

I know no one who has left Denver - friends or coworkers.

As a matter of fact, I am hiring a new employee and 1/4 of the applicants are from outside Colorado.

I continue to see many out of state license plates, the most from Florida and Texas, followed by many midwest states.

When I say Denver, I'm really talking about the center city and maybe one ring of the original 1890's suburbs...call it york to federal, I70 to speer.

Plenty of new license plates, yes, but that's not my point, which is that those I know living in the center city are leaving.

[Brainpathology]

Originally Posted by Darius C

... on the list of ugliest buildings in the world:
https://www.buildworld.co.uk/blog/archives/the-ugliest-buildings-in-the-world
It is an odd list. But, hey, you cannot argue with the "Study & Research" category of Buildworld.

"We identified all the design-themed tweets about these buildings on Twitter. Then we used a sentiment analysis tool called HuggingFace to analyse the percentage of tweets that were negative about each building’s design."

"we identified all the design-themed tantrums from toddlers who can't form thoughts longer than 240 characters on a site that for some reason still exists and fed them through a psuedoscientific 'analysis tool' to gauge how red faced the tantrums were form said toddlers. We then made an article with this 'information' because we are somehow even more lazy than people who still have or read Twitter."

Fixed their methodology for them. Also curious as to anyone's reasons for reading any of the article below that paragraph.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by laniroj

which is that those I know living in the center city are leaving.

If you are drawing "Denver" that narrowly then I am sure a lot of people are getting priced out (or can't afford to change when they want something different), or they cashed out. My neighbors are in the cash out bucket - not that they weren't satisfied here, but family dynamics changed, and their equity in Denver now affords them a freakin' beach-view townhome in Santa Barbara. So they traded up.

That's not exactly the story of a city in decline, though. It's the story of a city that's gotten 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 unaffordable.

[CONative]

Believe it or not, Denver ranks #2 Hottest Housing Market. I know a lot of media and such focus on the negative numbers, but when you look at a number of metrics... it isn't as bad as some may think.

https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estat...s/the-hottest-housing-markets-in-the-u-s

[RyanD]

Originally Posted by CONative

Believe it or not, Denver ranks #2 Hottest Housing Market. I know a lot of media and such focus on the negative numbers, but when you look at a number of metrics... it isn't as bad as some may think.

Well that... Leads to...

Originally Posted by bunt_q

It's the story of a city that's gotten 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 unaffordable.

This. Especially when Central Denver only gets 500 or so condos built every decade.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by CONative

Believe it or not, Denver ranks #2 Hottest Housing Market. I know a lot of media and such focus on the negative numbers, but when you look at a number of metrics... it isn't as bad as some may think.

https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estat...s/the-hottest-housing-markets-in-the-u-s

https://www.denver7.com/news/local-news/...-of-top-10-metros-homebuyers-are-leaving

Point

The data collected by Redfin said homebuyers are relocating at an "unprecedented rate" due to
elevated mortgage rates, high home prices, and economic uncertainty.

Counterpoint

The list may come as a shock to many people familiar with Denver, but Matt Metcalf who has been in the real estate world since 1995, isn't surprised by the list.

“Statistically, it's fairly insignificant," Metcalf said about the study. "We're going to have some of those migratory changes over the years. But Denver still has a mass appeal, and I think we still have some pretty pent up buyer demand and people who really want to call this home long-term.”

I do enjoy anecdotal stories for what people do and why. They may be statistically insignificant or they may hint at what others may also be thinking.

For example, bunt may suggest that everyone on his block wants to move somewhere else but I also heard that two blocks over nobody wants to move anywhere else.

I think partly what is happening (as has been reported) many markets including Denver have 'normalized' meaning it's no longer the strong Seller's market but more balanced between buyers and sellers. The other thing that has occurred is interest rates dropped some after the 1st of the year which has encouraged many buyers to take action. There's likely been buyers out there that gave up on the 'bidding craziness' for buying a home but with a more normal market they're able to make a reasoned decision to buy.

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by CONative

Believe it or not, Denver ranks #2 Hottest Housing Market. I know a lot of media and such focus on the negative numbers, but when you look at a number of metrics... it isn't as bad as some may think.

https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estat...s/the-hottest-housing-markets-in-the-u-s

You and I may have opposite ideas of what constitutes a negative and positive number in this regard.

IMO, either demand needs to plummet, or inventory needs to skyrocket. Anything else is a continuation of this crisis.

When I see a headline about the Denver market cooling, I think, “oh, good news!”

I’m done with Denver being a “hot” market. An exodus would be great.

[TakeFive]

'We are doing our best': Denver landlords under pressure as lenders take operating control of high-profile towers
Feb 17, 2023 By Greg Avery and Kate Tracy – Denver Business Journal

Some of downtown Denver’s most iconic office properties, including two towers that have defined the city’s skyline, are struggling in a race to fend off lenders as post-pandemic vacancy rates threaten to upend landlord portfolios in the city.

Five office buildings with a collective $617.3 million owed to lenders — among them the famed “Cash Register Building,” Republic Plaza, which is Denver’s tallest building, and the Writer Square mixed-use property — are casualties of rising office vacancy rates caused by the shift to hybrid and work-from-home styles and the departure of oil company headquarters.

The buildings’ owners have fallen behind on loan payments and some have been unable to make balloon payments as the properties’ loans matured and financing came due, according to their most recent financial filings.

I had read recently in Bisnow that nationally this was anticipated to be a growing problem. Many prominent buildings like these in Denver were bought by Top Tier investors (like Brookfield Properties) who were able to over-leverage the properties. It also more of a problem with rising interest rates. Nobody could have predicted all the changes that have happened since the Pandemic and with leasing problems those same 'prominent' owners have no motivation to sell for a loss as they largely cashed out their equity years ago.

I suspect this also shows the cumulative impact of oil & gas companies consolidating and often leaving Denver in recent years.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by RyanD

Well that... Leads to... This. Especially when Central Denver only gets 500 or so condos built every decade.

It's just crazy to think back to how popular building all manner of attached housing was in the 1980's. Some also happened in central Denver including condo conversions.

But since the Great Recession it's been all apartments all the time. Even down here where building condos is not a problem the only new condos have been high-end either in downtown Phoenix or in Scottsdale. But mostly it's been lots of new apartment construction.

The apartment construction momentum was fed by high rates of return so why take the risk of building condos. Perhaps that will finally change with a still full pipeline of new apartment projects but it will take a couple of years I'd guess to see how this plays out.

Years ago I thought that light rail stations might become a popular place for condos but that hasn't happened either.

Originally Posted by Sam Hill

You and I may have opposite ideas of what constitutes a negative and positive number in this regard.

IMO, either demand needs to plummet, or inventory needs to skyrocket. Anything else is a continuation of this crisis.

When I see a headline about the Denver market cooling, I think, “oh, good news!”

I’m done with Denver being a “hot” market. An exodus would be great.

It's possible the 'hot' will go out of the market moving forward. Should rentals become poor returns on investment then developers could change to building condos. Unfortunately that's likely a few years out should it even happen.

[COtoOC]

Originally Posted by Sam Hill

You and I may have opposite ideas of what constitutes a negative and positive number in this regard.

IMO, either demand needs to plummet, or inventory needs to skyrocket. Anything else is a continuation of this crisis.

When I see a headline about the Denver market cooling, I think, “oh, good news!”

I’m done with Denver being a “hot” market. An exodus would be great.

I'd be happy for prices to drop considerably. I bought 18 years ago and as of last spring, I could have sold for around $1.1M. I already coughed up an extra $2500 for property tax last August, and from the sounds of it, I'm going to get an even bigger bill this year.

I always thought a million dollar house would have a 4 car garage, circle drive, grand foyer and pool. I have none of that lol!

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

...Years ago I thought that light rail stations might become a popular place for condos but that hasn't happened either...

A surprising number of condos snuck in before the Great Recession and during along the SE line (E). Arapahoe County, Centennial, and Greenwood Village all got a pretty good amount of condos in transit walkable locations. They're dense too. At least we have one of the transit lines with condos!