Stadiums & Arenas of Canada, Part 3

[someone123]

Originally Posted by optimusREIM

I don't think prospective owners care what position it is in a given city as long as it's profitable. I mean, sure there's a consideration to be had about the fact that hockey is much less popular in some places (which is fair given some of the failures we've seen). I think that no matter what, if you're an owner or the NHL, you'd rather have a lukewarm market that's huge and has a lot of potential and room for losing fans over a small loyal market that has zero room for error in running the team.

I don't think this is obvious. What % of entertainment or sports revenues do you think an NHL team would collect in Charlotte? Do we think it'll make more money than the NFL or NBA teams? There are others like the MLS team as well. So the NHL team is probably looking at something like a 20% market share or less. It may well flop and get ~0% (never the most fun/interesting option for people) while it's virtually guaranteed to be super popular in Halifax. This factor can be as big as a 3-10x difference in market size.

The limiting factors in Halifax are that it has no suitable venue and may be small enough that even with guaranteed support the revenues just won't be high enough. I think that first issue is likely going to be fixed as the old arena gets replaced (no-brainer to build it to NHL standards; the old one is nearing 50 years old) and the economic/demographic growth is resolving that second issue.

[optimusREIM]

Originally Posted by someone123

I don't think this is obvious. What % of entertainment or sports revenues do you think an NHL team would collect in Charlotte? Do we think it'll make more money than the NFL or NBA teams? There are others like the MLS team as well. So the NHL team is probably looking at something like a 20% market share or less. It may well flop and get ~0% (never the most fun/interesting option for people) while it's virtually guaranteed to be super popular in Halifax. This factor can be as big as a 3-10x difference in market size.

The limiting factors in Halifax are that it has no suitable venue and may be small enough that even with guaranteed support the revenues just won't be high enough. I think that first issue is likely going to be fixed as the old arena gets replaced (no-brainer to build it to NHL standards; the old one is nearing 50 years old) and the economic/demographic growth is resolving that second issue.

20% of a market of 2.7 million is still like 600,000 people. The potential of larger markets is undeniable. Like you said, the market may be so small as to not be able to make enough revenue, regardless of support and buy in. If you're a person looking at this solely on the merits of the business opportunity, you may choose the market that has lots of room for growth over the one that may be saturated from day 1.

I'm not saying Charlotte is suitable for the NHL, I'm just saying that even if people don't really care about the team, there's plenty more potential there than Halifax. If we're talking competition, they may cannibalize the Hurricanes' market a little if they ever entered the league, but that would require more serious thought.

I love the idea of more Canadian teams and even having one in Halifax, but market size is a significant limiting constraint that is hard to get around no matter how you slice it.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by optimusREIM

If you're a person looking at this solely on the merits of the business opportunity, you may choose the market that has lots of room for growth over the one that may be saturated from day 1.

Sure, but nobody has established this. I said that market share can be a 10x factor like population size (relative argument).

Part of what makes this suspicious to me is I've heard the same argument for many years and the reality on the ground doesn't appear to make much difference to it. The inflation-adjusted $$$ in the Halifax market likely went up by 7% or so in the past year (population growth if I recall correctly was 4.5%; Hartford more like 0.6%) or so. Given this growth rate it's hard to reconcile (1) Winnipeg got a team and still maintains one, but (2) we know Halifax will be an utter pipe dream going years into the future.

One possible path will look something like:

- Scotiabank Centre in Halifax ages to the point of needing major work, city opts to expand. Expansion means almost NHL level at minimum so it will be almost a no-brainer to build something that at least can be modified to NHL standards of the day.
- City keeps growing by 2-4% per year due to immigration and other cities in Canada remaining relatively unaffordable. The region keeps growing as well. When the arena is completed, the local market will be something like 750,000 and the Maritimes will have 2.5M. For hockey, it will have more demand than almost all NA metros with 1-2M people, with the exceptions already having NHL teams for the most part.

[craner]

Originally Posted by optimusREIM

Including quite a few untapped cities with large populations like Houston, Atlanta, KC, Cincinatti, Cleveland, Hartford, Milwaukee, Portland, SLC, Indianapolis, Charlotte... The point is there are a few larger markets without NHL teams that do not have them in the US. We could make a caveat for viability on some of those as well, but in terms of sheer numbers they could by the simple fact that many are large urban centers support NHL franchises.

Perhaps we need another failed attempt at hockey in Atlanta to secure an eighth Canadian franchise (see Calgary & Winnipeg).

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by optimusREIM

20% of a market of 2.7 million is still like 600,000 people. The potential of larger markets is undeniable. Like you said, the market may be so small as to not be able to make enough revenue, regardless of support and buy in. If you're a person looking at this solely on the merits of the business opportunity, you may choose the market that has lots of room for growth over the one that may be saturated from day 1.

I'm not saying Charlotte is suitable for the NHL, I'm just saying that even if people don't really care about the team, there's plenty more potential there than Halifax. If we're talking competition, they may cannibalize the Hurricanes' market a little if they ever entered the league, but that would require more serious thought.

I love the idea of more Canadian teams and even having one in Halifax, but market size is a significant limiting constraint that is hard to get around no matter how you slice it.

But is that 20% even likely, much less a sure thing? We have Phoenix and Atlanta as pretty good examples. Would Charlotte or Houston or Kansas City be another Nashville or Tampa, or Phoenix and Atlanta?

Quebec City would be another Winnipeg with 100% certainty. Halifax comes with a fairly high degree of certainty as well.

Market size is important, and there is a build it and they will come aspect to the NHL in warmer US climates that has sometimes panned out.

But not always. There are limits to people's interest. Delhi is 10-15 times than Austin, Texas, but does that mean Delhi is the best place to launch a chain of burger joints?

I can't find it now but a few years ago there was a study of Canadian and US metro areas based on polling that showed the percentage and number of people that were interested in the NHL. Almost all of the Canadian metros were off the charts compared to the US, and even some smaller Canadian metros like Saskatoon, St. Catharines-Niagara and Halifax had more NHL fans in sheer numbers than a lot of US cities that were home to NHL clubs.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Quebec City would be another Winnipeg with 100% certainty. Halifax comes with a fairly high degree of certainty as well.

One basic thing I regard more or less as a fact is you would get people coming in from around Atlantic Canada for hockey games in Halifax, at a rate far higher than they would in most of the USA. Perhaps less so from NL or northern NB but a lot from areas like Southern NB, all of NS, and PEI. I would expect that the Maritimes are a larger hockey market than Georgia or North Carolina. In a geography a small fraction of the size of other Canadian provinces.

This ties in with arguments about the CFL as a "stepping stone" to the NHL. CFL popularity ain't anywhere near NHL level in the Maritimes. If it were, Halifax would have had a team years ago and maybe there would even be 2 teams. A similar argument would be if you said a US city had to have an MLS team before NFL.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Acajack

But is that 20% even likely, much less a sure thing? We have Phoenix and Atlanta as pretty good examples. Would Charlotte or Houston or Kansas City be another Nashville or Tampa, or Phoenix and Atlanta?

Quebec City would be another Winnipeg with 100% certainty. Halifax comes with a fairly high degree of certainty as well.

Market size is important, and there is a build it and they will come aspect to the NHL in warmer US climates that has sometimes panned out.

But not always. There are limits to people's interest. Delhi is 10-15 times than Austin, Texas, but does that mean Delhi is the best place to launch a chain of burger joints?

I can't find it now but a few years ago there was a study of Canadian and US metro areas based on polling that showed the percentage and number of people that were interested in the NHL. Almost all of the Canadian metros were off the charts compared to the US, and even some smaller Canadian metros like Saskatoon, St. Catharines-Niagara and Halifax had more NHL fans in sheer numbers than a lot of US cities that were home to NHL clubs.

No question that Canadian cities have a higher proportion of hockey fans. But bigger US cities generally have a larger number of companies that can rubber stamp a $30,000 season ticket account renewal each year without thinking twice about it.

You might get some people driving into Halifax from Moncton or Sydney to watch a game, but the company in Moncton or Sydney won't be buying season tickets or a private suite. So that is a challenge.

[optimusREIM]

I agree with many of the people that want the NHL to come to smaller cities, I love the Jets, I'm very thankful I have a hometown team to cheer for. But getting the Jets back was a very lucky opportunity for a very savvy and shrewd owner, that was a borderline miracle. The fans still chant "true north" every anthem in appreciation.

I think there are a lot of good arguments for putting teams in some smaller markets, I just don't know that the NHL would ever allow it.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by esquire

No question that Canadian cities have a higher proportion of hockey fans. But bigger US cities generally have a larger number of companies that can rubber stamp a $30,000 season ticket account renewal each year without thinking twice about it.

If you are in Charlotte do you rubber stamp the season tickets to the NFL, NBA, MLS, or NHL?

We don't need to do the chamber of commerce thing but the idea that Halifax doesn't have local companies or they won't sponsor stuff is often exaggerated. There are a bunch of large-ish companies people outside the region have generally not heard of and then there are major national companies that likely would spend money. Examples like Crombie/Sobeys, Scotiabank (current arena sponsor), or perhaps Irving.

You might get some people driving into Halifax from Moncton or Sydney to watch a game, but the company in Moncton or Sydney won't be buying season tickets or a private suite. So that is a challenge.

I wonder if this is really true. Individual people would not want to drive back and forth constantly but a company can give out tickets to different employees.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by esquire

No question that Canadian cities have a higher proportion of hockey fans. But bigger US cities generally have a larger number of companies that can rubber stamp a $30,000 season ticket account renewal each year without thinking twice about it.

You might get some people driving into Halifax from Moncton or Sydney to watch a game, but the company in Moncton or Sydney won't be buying season tickets or a private suite. So that is a challenge.

Good point, though I'd be interested in knowing what the corporate support situation is in Phoenix, ie boxes and sponsorships.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by someone123

If you are in Charlotte do you rubber stamp the season tickets to the NFL, NBA, MLS, or NHL?

I know but there are only so many sponsorship opportunities as the official auto dealer of the Carolina Panthers and so many boxes in the stadium.

It's pretty clear that in bigger US metros many sponsors that are squeezed out or priced out of the more popular sports "settle" for sponsoring the local NHL club.

That's one huge benefit of being in a large market with many corporations, even if you are the little guy in town.

I remember that when the Quebec Nordiques were in the NHL, many Montreal-based corporations that were locked out of sponsoring the Habs, ended up sponsoring the Nordiques.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It's pretty clear that in bigger US metros many sponsors that are squeezed out or priced out of the more popular sports "settle" for sponsoring the local NHL club.

Of course. But now we're talking about prime opportunities in one city vs. 4th or 5th tier in another city. I'm not sure how one can formulate a firm opinion in the abstract about smaller-market-lower-tier vs. larger-market-higher-tier and nobody has given any kind of rationale for weighing the competing factors. I would guess most SSP Canada posters don't know what sort of company sponsorship revenue possibilities exist in Charlotte vs. Halifax or what the step down in money raised looks like (I don't). I think there are a lot of stereotypes about the US having big businesses and the Maritimes being poor or whatever that have a kernel of truth but don't clearly outweigh other factors.

If anything your Nordiques Montreal story is an example of how sponsorships sometimes work regionally as well. Around here the Canucks have a deal with TD Bank. Currently if you live in Atlantic Canada, population 2.5M, there are 0 major sports teams in your region that you can watch or attend and that is a fair number of eyeballs to display logos to.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by someone123

Of course. But now we're talking about prime opportunities in one city vs. 4th or 5th tier in another city. I'm not sure how one can formulate a firm opinion in the abstract about this. I would guess most SSP Canada posters don't know what sort of company sponsorship revenue possibilities exist in Charlotte vs. Halifax or what the step down in money raised looks like. I think there are a lot of stereotypes about the US having big businesses and the Maritimes being poor or whatever that have a kernel of truth but don't clearly outweigh other factors.

If anything your Nordiques Montreal story is an example of how sponsorships sometimes work regionally as well. Around here the Canucks have a deal with TD Bank.

All I'm saying is I wouldn't expect Assumption Life to buy a skybox for a NHL team in Halifax.

But that said, the Jets are able to fill the skyboxes at their games and we are not exactly Manhattan. Of course, a lot of the skyboxes are shared, and when you walk the skybox ring and read the company names on the door, some are surprisingly small... for every Canada Life, there is a Sierra Courier.

[Oilkountry]

I must have been out of the loop i didn't even know this was happening. Really surprised the whitecaps didn't just work with the cpl and Langley to get something really nice built. This looks like a mini empire stadium though perfect for the cpl

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vanc...y-park-langley

In other Vancouver stadia news. Looks like BC place adding suites for WC 2026, My question would be why not do something a little more legacy friendly than more suites?? Something along the lines of rogers centre? replace the entire upper deck endzones with vip clubs, build a rogers place style 3 floor towers on each end. And the top 10-15 rows of the rest of the upper deck with loge seats and patios and then put in some more suites if you feel they are needed? I'm all for shrinking the place, its way too big for its main tenants and the 55k capacity is rarely needed I would love to see BC place between 40-45,000 seats. The renovation was great! don't get me wrong but for the price of 3 Investor group fields you essentially got a fancy roof and new seats. At that price point you would expect some structural changes to bring the building to todays standards. And now they are making the same mistake twice. These suites will essentially serve a purpose once a year or so and do nothing to create a fun atmosphere for lions and Caps who i'm sure haven't been asked what they would like to see.

https://biv.com/article/2023/02/bc-p...2026-world-cup
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[Oilkountry]

Looks like the ice aren't getting their way on a new arena. Honestly why move the team to a perfectly served market with the expectation that the city will build you a palace? I think this will help the Moose and give a deserving city a shot to host the team. Not gonna say I saw this coming but....I saw this coming. Either the moose or ICE were eventually gonna have to leave you cant have the 3 highest levels of hockey in a mid size city like Winnipeg

https://winnipegsun.com/sports/hocke...gs-in-winnipeg

[steve61]

Originally Posted by Oilkountry

Looks like the ice aren't getting their way on a new arena. Honestly why move the team to a perfectly served market with the expectation that the city will build you a palace? I think this will help the Moose and give a deserving city a shot to host the team. Not gonna say I saw this coming but....I saw this coming. Either the moose or ICE were eventually gonna have to leave you cant have the 3 highest levels of hockey in a mid size city like Winnipeg

https://winnipegsun.com/sports/hocke...gs-in-winnipeg

All three of the links you posted seem to be dead

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by Coldrsx

R&R has a new meaning.
https://ottawasun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/...mington-group-to-co-star-in-senators-bid

Yup, Reynolds teaming up with Vaughan based Remington. Not super impressed with Remington's work personally, but if anyone has insight about them as a developer.

[ericmacm]

Crazy that Remington Group has come up as the potential owner for the Senators. Remington was involved in GTA Sports & Entertainment, which was the group that was attempting to build the 19,500 seat GTA Centre as part of Remington’s Downtown Markham development and bring an NHL team there back in 2011/2012. Looks like they might finally get their NHL team after all (albeit in Ottawa instead of Markham) if things go their way.

I wish this ultimately got built, but it definitely seemed like a case of reactionary optimism with the whole Winnipeg situation, and were probably hoping to pluck off another struggling team.

[J.OT13]

Apparently, beyond their attempt to bring a second team to the GTA, Remington also owns a small share in the Seattle Kraken.

[Oilkountry]

Originally Posted by steve61

All three of the links you posted seem to be dead

wierd try this

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-fc-stadium-willoughby-community-park-langley

https://biv.com/article/2023/02/bc-place-planning-suite-expansion-fifa-2026-world-cup

https://winnipegsun.com/sports/hockey/cr...l-team-could-be-on-last-legs-in-winnipeg