Worldwide Demographics

[Yuri]

France

French are incredibly fast on releasing their vital stats (births and deaths) and we already have 2022 figures (to keep historical consistency, data is for metropolitan France only): 686,000 births; 657,000 deaths.

That's the lowest number of births and the highest of deaths since 1930's/WWII. For context, in 2010 there were 802,000 births and 540,000 deaths. France, the most successful/well-known case of a developed country keeping a high TFR, is now very close to post negative natural growth.

On the past 20 years, the number of immigrants heading to France paled compared to Germany or Britain and that doesn't help either.

[mousquet]

^ mm, I think I heard of that a couple of days ago. It has a lot to do with Covid and the morale of the population that's a bit down.

However, demographers expect the birth rate to get slightly better again in the coming years.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mousquet

^ mm, I think I heard of that a couple of days ago. It has a lot to do with Covid and the morale of the population that's a bit down.

However, demographers expect the birth rate to get slightly better again in the coming years.

Yes. The downward trend on Americas/Europe/East Asia started after the 2008 crisis up to the mid-2010’s depending on the place. Covid didn’t affect much for better or worse. Germany was one of the very few exceptions.

Let’s see how things will play, but France, even if they go negative, is in a very comfortable position with a relatively high TFR. Things have been deteriorating very quickly in Japan, Italy, Spain and South Korea. Negative natural growth is becoming massive, with deaths almost twice as high as births.

[Crawford]

There used to be a lot of talk in the German media how France would eventually have a higher population than Germany. That almost certainly won't happen in our lifetimes. The gap in birth rates has narrowed considerably and the gap in immigration has increased considerably.

[mousquet]

The current trend in France is only temporary anyway.

The French government has been pretty effective in supporting couples that would make babies.
They are subsidized and that kind of policies was proven efficient in sustaining birth rate.
It's actually pretty smart, or at least convenient to young couples.

Moreover, there's no cultural problem with young women both working and raising todlers over here.
We have lots of nurseries to help them keep their jobs and be independent. That may not be the case in Germany.

You hear some young women state that they want to remain childless for whatever reason, like so-called eco-anxiety for instance.
It's often the same. Lots of people claim they don't want kids when they're 20, then they change their minds and have a couple of kids when they're 30.

Nothing much new under the sun. However, Covid did affect the trend in that matter. It is obvious. The current related stats show it.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mousquet

The current trend in France is only temporary anyway.

The French government has been pretty effective in supporting couples that would make babies.
They are subsidized and that kind of policies was proven efficient in sustaining birth rate.
It's actually pretty smart, or at least convenient to young couples.

Moreover, there's no cultural problem with young women both working and raising todlers over here.
We have lots of nurseries to help them keep their jobs and be independent. That may not be the case in Germany.

You hear some young women state that they want to remain childless for whatever reason, like so-called eco-anxiety for instance.
It's often the same. Lots of people claim they don't want kids when they're 20, then they change their minds and have a couple of kids when they're 30.

Nothing much new under the sun. However, Covid did affect the trend in that matter. It is obvious. The current related stats show it.

Germany made lots of advances in this regard and aside in France itself, they looked at the former East Germany experience that was much more successful than West Germany. Their TFR increased from low to 1.3 to mid-1.5, their highest level since the early 1970's. There was a noticeable cultural change there and society is much more children-friendly in general.

France started to have more births than Germany in 2000. From there, the difference has only grown and in 2010 there were already 802k births in France and Germany reached the bottom in 2011. Since then Germany started its climbing and against every single forecast, it started to post more births than France once again in 2016 and kept in the lead ever since.

In 2012, there were 80.3 million people in Germany and 63.5 million in France. Germany was forecast to keep shrink and lose 2-3 million or so by now. 2022 is out and Germany has 84.3 million people and France 65.8 million.

They managed to grow faster than France in absolute and even in relative terms when they have a much bigger aged population.

[mousquet]

Lol, now this thread has turned a penis-size contest to beat France at any cost...
You guys are really funny, huh.

I notice that no matter what we do, good or bad, my country often remains the ultimate one to arouse silly childish rivalry.
That must mean we're still really enviable, somehow.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mousquet

Lol, now this thread has turned a penis-size contest to beat France at any cost...
You guys are really funny, huh.

I notice that no matter what we do, good or bad, my country often remains the ultimate one to arouse silly childish rivalry.
That must mean we're still really enviable, somehow.

What are you talking about? It's not a contest, but comparisons, Numbers alone are meaningless if we don't have a context.

Germany, Britain are neighbouring countries, with very similar socioeconomics and size. If I post something about France, should I compare it with whom? Indonesia? I even mentioned France demographic situation, despite the downward trend on births, is quite comfortable and I compared it favourably with other countries.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by mousquet

Lol, now this thread has turned a penis-size contest to beat France at any cost.

What in the hell are you talking about?

[cabasse]

interesting data: https://washmatters.wateraid.org/sites/g/files/jkxoof256/files/Out%20of%20Order%20report%202017.pdf (if slightly out of date)


was surprised to see that 11% of russians have no access to indoor toliets (16M people) compared to ukraine's 4%. (1.8M) russia has a lot of concentrated oil wealth but that clearly has not trickled down to the poorest.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by cabasse

interesting data: https://washmatters.wateraid.org/sites/g/files/jkxoof256/files/Out%20of%20Order%20report%202017.pdf (if slightly out of date)


was surprised to see that 11% of russians have no access to indoor toliets (16M people) compared to ukraine's 4%. (1.8M) russia has a lot of concentrated oil wealth but that clearly has not trickled down to the poorest.

To me it's not surprise at all. I don't know the exact numbers, but rural population in Russia must be quite big, with they have very remote regions in Siberia. I don't imagine a hut there with indoor toilets.

Speaking of Brazil, another massive country (although half of size of Russia) there are massive regional differences. Those are 2010 Census numbers, so things have changed a lot since then. By April we'll have 2022 Census numbers:

------------- Households --- House w/ no toleits
BRASIL --- 57,324,167 --- 1,514,992 --- 2.64%
Norte --- 3,975,533 --- 183,857 --- 4.62%
Nordeste --- 14,922,901 --- 1,165,721 --- 7.81%
Centro-Oeste --- 4,334,673 --- 27,410 --- 0.63%
Sudeste --- 25,199,781 --- 96,617 --- 0.38%
Sul --- 8,891,279 --- 41,387 --- 0.47%

We see North (Amazon) and Northeast, the poorest regions, have a quite big number of households with no bathroom. Numbers on the other three are negligible, probably most of them on rural areas.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Crawford

There used to be a lot of talk in the German media how France would eventually have a higher population than Germany. That almost certainly won't happen in our lifetimes. The gap in birth rates has narrowed considerably and the gap in immigration has increased considerably.

The gap in birth rates is still very high. In 2022 there was a TFR of 1.80 in France vs only 1.45 in Germany.

The takeover has already happened for the population under 20. In 2022 there were 15.43 million people younger than 20 y/o in Germany, vs 16.08 million in France.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

The gap in birth rates is still very high. In 2022 there was a TFR of 1.80 in France vs only 1.45 in Germany.

The takeover has already happened for the population under 20. In 2022 there were 15.43 million people younger than 20 y/o in Germany, vs 16.08 million in France.

TFR in Germany is above 1.5 since 2015. I remember back in 2011 or so, in the SSC you projected France to surpass Germany population wise in the early 2030’s. Ten years from now. And you were clear that nothing would change that. Well, now we’re sure that this overcome won’t take place during our lifetimes.

Even though demographic curves are much more stable than say, economy, they can be changed. Germany is the most perfect example: massive immigration flows coupled with an increasing TFR when the rest of the world was going down.

And there are examples in other direction: Spain went from growing 15% on the 2000’s to zero in the 2010’s. Immigration flows ended abruptly and their TFR, already very low, fell even further.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Yuri

TFR in Germany is above 1.5 since 2015.

No. In 2022 it feel to 1.45. Germany had only between 735,000 and 745,000 births in 2022 according to Destatis, a big drop compared to the 795,492 recorded in 2021.

Originally Posted by Yuri

I remember back in 2011 or so, in the SSC you projected France to surpass Germany population wise in the early 2030’s.

You don't remember well then. The takeover for the entire population was never forecasted to take place in the 2030s. It was always forecasted to take place around 2050. Higher immigration in Germany can only delay it by a few years, but it can't fundamentally change the demographic momentum.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

No. In 2022 it feel to 1.45. Germany had only between 735,000 and 745,000 births in 2022 according to Destatis, a big drop compared to the 795,492 recorded in 2021.

Yeah, in 2022 probably. But between 2015-2021 they were consistently above 1.5.

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

You don't remember well then. The takeover for the entire population was never forecasted to take place in the 2030s. It was always forecasted to take place around 2050. Higher immigration in Germany can only delay it by a few years, but it can't fundamentally change the demographic momentum.

But it kinda did, hence Germany posting more births than France since 2016. No one could ever guess that, specially as France was ahead since 2000 and the logic was that France would always increase the lead.

Germany has a very friendly attitude towards immigration: on the top of millions and millions of Eastern Europeans, they opened the borders to 1.5 million Syrians and 1 million Ukrainians. And as if it was not enough, they just put up a program to attract non-European immigrants. German language knowledge is not even required.

That reflects already in German society: it's a much more international place, with those regional quirks being brushed away and therefore becoming even more friendly to new immigrants.

France, on the other hand, gives Le Pen almost half of votes, a politician whose main talking point is bashing foreigners. I'm not saying they're right or wrong, it's a complex subject, but that's their national mood for the past 20 years. It's a no-brainer immigrants will seek more friendly destinations.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Yeah, in 2022 probably. But between 2015-2021 they were consistently above 1.5.

And France was consistently above 1.9. So what's your point? The gap has not diminished.

Originally Posted by Yuri

Germany posting more births than France since 2016. No one could ever guess that

In fact anyone looking at the shape of the population pyramid could have predicted it. Few births in France in the 1990s, much more births in Germany back then. These are the mothers giving birth now. The larger number of German births around 1990 was itself an echo of the big birth boom of the mid 1960s, which was itself an echo of the Third Reich natalist policies and associated birth boom of the late 1930s. Demography has a long history.

When it will really hurt for Germany is when the women born in the 2000s and 2010s start to give birth.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

And France was consistently above 1.9. So what's your point? The gap has not diminished.

France is at 1.78. But the point is not France vs Germany. France is pretty much ordinary, doing their thing since always.

My focus is on Germany and how they completely changed their demographic landscape. That was definitely not expected and it’s arguably the biggest demographic story of the past 10 years.

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

In fact anyone looking at the shape of the population pyramid could have predicted it. Few births in France in the 1990s, much more births in Germany back then. These are the mothers giving birth now. The larger number of German births around 1990 was itself an echo of the big birth boom of the mid 1960s, which was itself an echo of the Third Reich natalist policies and associated birth boom of the late 1930s. Demography has a long history.

When it will really hurt for Germany is when the women born in the 2000s and 2010s start to give birth.

There was no model predicting Germany to have more births than France. Ever again. Nor that German TFR would suddenly rise from 1.37 to 1.57 in a period Americas, Europe, East Asia were going on the opposite direction.

There was no model either placing Germany population above 84 million now. Forecasts for 2022 was always around 77-78 million or so.

If the goal is to keep population stable or growing, Germany did a superb job on the past 10 years. And we’re talking about a country that has been posting negative natural growth for the past 50 years (!!!). South Korea went negative just three years ago and look the size of the hole there.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Yuri

France is at 1.78.

No. 1.80 in 2022 according to INSEE.

Originally Posted by Yuri

My focus is on Germany and how they completely changed their demographic landscape. That was definitely not expected and it’s arguably the biggest demographic story of the past 10 years.

10 years is nothing in demography. It remains to be seen whether there's really been a turnaround in German fertility. What we observe is in 2022 the TFR has again declined to 1.45. So the 2010s could be more a short-term bump than a real turnaround (Germany's TFR was above 1.5 only during 7 years, 2015-2021, which is not a very long period, and it hasn't been above 1.6 since 1972).

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

No. 1.80 in 2022 according to INSEE.

Much closer to 1.78 to 1.90.

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

10 years is nothing in demography. It remains to be seen whether there's really been a turnaround in German fertility. What we observe is in 2022 the TFR has again declined to 1.45. So the 2010s could be more a short-term bump than a real turnaround (Germany's TFR was above 1.5 only during 7 years, 2015-2021, which is not a very long period, and it hasn't been above 1.6 since 1972).

When it was not expected, when most of its peers was going on the opposite direction, that's certainly a big thing.

I've read several articles about it and anedoctally I saw by myself in a Bierhalle in Frankfurt: three couples with like 8 children running wildly everywhere, screaming, fighting and no one seemed to be disturbed. That was certainly be dealt very different in the past. They certainly became more child friendly and that was probably one of the main factors driven their TFR up.

Either way, it's mass immigration that's making the biggest impact. It's making German population to keep growing and their Mittelstände supplied with labour. As Americas, Europe and East Asia are either declining or close to, that's certainly a good thing. They're buying time to adapt.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Much closer to 1.78 to 1.90.

What are you talking about? France's TFR was above 1.9 during 13 years (2004-2016), and Germany was above 1.5 only during 7 years (2015-2021). And France's TFR has been between 1.8 and 1.9 for 6 years now (2017-2022), whereas Germany's TFR is again below 1.5 in 2022.