VIA Rail network developments

[Innsertnamehere]

Amtrak is planning a Chicago - Toronto service right now, but it would likely only operate once a day like the Maple Leaf does now. Supposed to take about 10 hours to do the trip.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

You think more people travel to Buffalo from GTA than to Ottawa or Montreal? That might be true in the sense that X% of Torontonians have been to Buffalo in past year where y% to Ottawa and Z% to Montreal are lower but the frequency is much lower.

The idea that Buffalo is a more important destination for Torontonians than Montreal or Ottawa strikes me as completely bizzare. Remember that we are talking about all kinds of trips - business, vacation, family visits. The first two are almost non-existent for a Toronto-Buffalo route.

At one point there was a fair amount of cross-border shopping trips, but even those are much more rare these days, and are very unlikely to be done by train in any event. If you have been to downtown Buffalo, you would agree that no one from the GTA is going there to shop.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

No. I think service to Hamilton, Kitchener and London is more important or just as important for GTA residents and the residents living in those cities. Of course, not all three can be served by a single line. We are looking at this from an Ottawa prism.

I'm from Kitchener, so no Ottawa prism in my case.

Hamilton and Kitchener are within commuter train distance of Toronto. Sure, express trains that don't crawl through level crossings would be good, but HSR provides very limited benefit over those shorter distances. How much time would HSR really shave off a 70 or 100 km trip?

I'd also point out that by the time you hit Kitchener or Hamilton, you have already gone past the vast majority of the western GTA population, so they are not served by a line like that. A regular rail line would be just fine for those areas. London-Windsor-Detroit would be the justification for HSR to the west, and the population there (at least within Canada) would put it way behind Montreal-Ottawa in order of priority. If we are talking Detroit or Buffalo, that is an international project and a whole other ball game.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

You think more people travel to Buffalo from GTA than to Ottawa or Montreal? That might be true in the sense that X% of Torontonians have been to Buffalo in past year where y% to Ottawa and Z% to Montreal are lower but the frequency is much lower. People with close family or friendship ties between the three cities mean there is much more traffic. It for sure is 80-20 rule or even 90-10 with the same people travelling over and over again but those are the journeys it would replace.

I think there are way more trips from the GTA to Buffalo than there are from the GTA to Ottawa or Montreal.

The discussion is about media/public interest. People interested in this in Toronto are either power users of Toronto to Ottawa or Toronto to Montreal transportation or rail enthusiasts, hence the relative lack of media and political interest.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I think there are way more trips from the GTA to Buffalo than there are from the GTA to Ottawa or Montreal.

The discussion is about media/public interest. People interested in this in Toronto are either power users of Toronto to Ottawa or Toronto to Montreal transportation or rail enthusiasts, hence the relative lack of media and political interest.

I would suggest that the interest maybe for Buffalo visitors to Toronto rather than Toronto visitors to Buffalo. But then there is also Niagara Falls along the way. I think that an efficient rail connection between Toronto and Niagara Falls will be a boon to tourism. Who really enjoys the drive down the QEW?

Highway 401 traffic is also why rail between Toronto and Ottawa is so popular. I think that Niagara Falls rail is mostly an untapped market, although I already hear that weekend GO Trains to Niagara in tourist season are already very popular. This needs to be expanded and with faster trains.

But should this be a VIA or GO project? Certainly GO to Niagara Falls, but this gets a whole lot more complicated crossing to Buffalo.

[Truenorth00]

The truly interesting part is that with this proposal it takes just as many transfers to fly from YUL as it does to fly from YOW. With maybe only 15-30 mins more in transit getting from downtown to YUL than downtown to YOW. Going to be awesome to take long haul from YUL and avoid all the backtracking feeder flights to YYZ.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I think there are way more trips from the GTA to Buffalo than there are from the GTA to Ottawa or Montreal.

Do you have any basis for this statement? I lived in Toronto for a decade, and anecdotally this does not feel correct. People passing through Buffalo to go elsewhere in the US maybe, but people going to Buffalo itself?

Even if you are correct, and I really doubt it, the question is whether many of these people would be likely to switch to the train. There is already a thriving airline and rail business between Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa. Toronto and Buffalo, not so much.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by phil235

Do you have any basis for this statement? I lived in Toronto for a decade, and anecdotally this does not feel correct. People passing through Buffalo to go elsewhere in the US maybe, but people going to Buffalo itself?

Even if you are correct, and I really doubt it, the question is whether many of these people would be likely to switch to the train. There is already a thriving airline and rail business between Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa. Toronto and Buffalo, not so much.

When you lived in Toronto, how often did people you knew go to Ottawa, Montreal or Quebec?

The peace bridge had 4 million passenger cars cross it in 2019. That may include traffic to other places, but if you were going somewhere else you would normally take the L-Q bridge, which gets you more directly onto the interstate network.

https://www.peacebridge.com/index.php/media-room/press-releases-advisories/389-btoa-2020-stats

I don't think a buffalo train would attract much passenger traffic, I was just noting that Ottawa and Montreal were likely not the biggest destination.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The truly interesting part is that with this proposal it takes just as many transfers to fly from YUL as it does to fly from YOW. With maybe only 15-30 mins more in transit getting from downtown to YUL than downtown to YOW. Going to be awesome to take long haul from YUL and avoid all the backtracking feeder flights to YYZ.

And that's exactly why this type of service can be so good climate wise, it kills the need for little hop flights too and from the 3 cities.

I imagine that Toronto - Montreal will still have a market for it somewhat, but the Toronto - Ottawa and Ottawa - Montreal flight markets will be completely decimated by this.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by acottawa

When you lived in Toronto, how often did people you knew go to Ottawa, Montreal or Quebec?

The peace bridge had 4 million passenger cars cross it in 2019. That may include traffic to other places, but if you were going somewhere else you would normally take the L-Q bridge, which gets you more directly onto the interstate network.

https://www.peacebridge.com/index.php/media-room/press-releases-advisories/389-btoa-2020-stats

I don't think a buffalo train would attract much passenger traffic, I was just noting that Ottawa and Montreal were likely not the biggest destination.

For some reason in Ontario people have a cultural preference for the Peace Bridge, particularly since it's toll-free entering the US. Using L-Q needs to pay for the Grand Island tolls as well as the L-Q toll.

Generally border traffic has been slowly declining following 9/11 however, and the border plays a big roll in limiting economic activity between Buffalo and Toronto despite their proximity.

NY Plates are very common in the GTA, but ties to Ottawa are probably stronger overall with many having family and more ecomic and governmental ties.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by acottawa

When you lived in Toronto, how often did people you knew go to Ottawa, Montreal or Quebec?

The peace bridge had 4 million passenger cars cross it in 2019. That may include traffic to other places, but if you were going somewhere else you would normally take the L-Q bridge, which gets you more directly onto the interstate network.

https://www.peacebridge.com/index.php/media-room/press-releases-advisories/389-btoa-2020-stats

I don't think a buffalo train would attract much passenger traffic, I was just noting that Ottawa and Montreal were likely not the biggest destination.

At least in my circles, there was lots of travel to Montreal and Ottawa for weekend getaways, to see friends and family, etc. And within Canada, Montreal and Ottawa were the biggest destinations for business travel at least in my industry. And if you limit it to destinations that are a reasonable drive/train trip, they would definitely dominate.

I basically didn't know of anyone who went to Buffalo for any reason other than sports. And there is not much in the surrounding area - an okay ski hill and that's about it. (And I say this as someone who took a vacation in Buffalo a few years ago.) Niagara Falls was a far bigger draw.

The Peace Bridge is the primary crossing for people in Toronto going basically anywhere in the US, as it links directly to the QEW and the I-90. If you cross at Lewiston, you have to go through more Buffalo suburbs and there are extra tolls, so that route isn't as popular. I'd expect that the majority of local Canadians crossing the Peace Bridge have destinations elsewhere in the US (with the possible exception of locals who work or shop in the US).

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

And that's exactly why this type of service can be so good climate wise, it kills the need for little hop flights too and from the 3 cities.

I imagine that Toronto - Montreal will still have a market for it somewhat, but the Toronto - Ottawa and Ottawa - Montreal flight markets will be completely decimated by this.

Heck, if they have the budget they can deviate a little and build the HSR station directly into YUL. Cut one more transfer. At that point, I might even consider moving some North American flying to Montreal instead of flying through YYZ or ORD or EWR.

And yes, screw short haul flying. Not just for the environment. This is more convenient, comfortable and cheaper. And airports can save the capacity for more long haul.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Amtrak is planning a Chicago - Toronto service right now, but it would likely only operate once a day like the Maple Leaf does now. Supposed to take about 10 hours to do the trip.

Taking the London-Kitchener line, I wonder?

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Taking the London-Kitchener line, I wonder?

Likely just follow London - Hamilton like most via trains do currently as that’s over an hour faster than going through Kitchener.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Amtrak is planning a Chicago - Toronto service right now, but it would likely only operate once a day like the Maple Leaf does now. Supposed to take about 10 hours to do the trip.

Who cares? I never understand the fascination with these once a day trains. It's novelty and minimum obligation. Not real transport service.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Likely just follow London - Hamilton like most via trains do currently as that’s over an hour faster than going through Kitchener.

Longer-term, it will be London-Kitchener because of the Pearson connection. This will require big track improvements to speed up service.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Longer-term, it will be London-Kitchener because of the Pearson connection. This will require big track improvements to speed up service.

For what it’s worth, that route ran for years before being cancelled, and it always took the London-Kitchener route. The tracks on that route have been (slightly) improved for GO and the UP express.

[Truenorth00]

Apparently the recent federal study for HFR West suggests the Southern Mainline for upgrade. No idea how much of this is just a panicked study before an election or if they are serious.

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Apparently the recent federal study for HFR West suggests the Southern Mainline for upgrade. No idea how much of this is just a panicked study before an election or if they are serious.

West of Toronto?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

West of Toronto?

Yes. Slide 12 in this deck:

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/9...Nov-2022-C2P3-Conference-Toronto_1_1.pdf

TC will engage an external advisor to identify options for:
•increased frequencies, improve on-time performance and shorten travel time: along the southern line between TorontoLondon-Windsorand between London and Sarnia.

To be fair, I dunno if this a pledge to improve service or this will be the preferred HFR West corridor. There's discussions among rail nerds. Personally, I think skipping the airport and a major tech hub (KWC) would be unthinkable. But governments make lots of dumb decisions. So....