Winnipeg Construction X

[esquire]

Originally Posted by bomberjet

With the Met and the narrow cannon look on TV, I think Donald St would be better than a wind swept parking lot in St. James. Just my opinion.

If the TNS courtyard existed in St. James, it would look exactly the same on TV as it does downtown.

You don't need a huge number of people and street closures, etc. to achieve the desired effect of "look, people are gathering to watch this outside". The Maple Leaf Square viewing parties in Toronto are not massive.

[trueviking]

the SHED was essentially a TIF. The idea was that if True North was going to be investing hundreds of millions into the area, they wanted the public realm around it to be improved. It was like a tax incentive that didnt go directly back to the developer but was used to make their investment more valuable. To protect their investment.

The initial concept was to create a vegas looking entertainment district with funnelators on every corner and street....it doesn't really exist anymore.....the streetscape along donald between the arena and the Met is the only remnant.

[trueviking]

remember when they unveiled true north square everyone was upset because it wasn't big enough to host the street parties...like they were going to be a thing every spring....my bet is that even if they have a long run this year the street parties will be a fraction of what they were in 2018....the jets can't even fill the barn anymore...

[trueviking]

I don't think true north regrets investing in downtown....I don't think that real estate play could have materialized in the suburbs....as you say, the incentives would not have been there....real estate is still more valuable downtown than elsewhere....would wawanesa have moved to headingley?

[esquire]

Originally Posted by trueviking

I don't think true north regrets investing in downtown....I don't think that real estate play could have materialized in the suburbs....as you say, the incentives would not have been there....real estate is still more valuable downtown than elsewhere....would wawanesa have moved to headingley?

I wouldn't say the best alternative to the current SHED was Headingley or some other place outside the Perimeter. Polo Park is basically downtown lite these days, it's very easy to imagine an arena and office development taking shape there. There were also other potential locations, like for instance, somewhere along Kenaston, near Pembina and Bishop Grandin, the old Canada Packers site, etc.

Maybe at the time it was a slam dunk for downtown given the ability to leverage government dollars which at that time were flowing generously for downtown development projects. But if it was being done today, I'm not so sure it would be such a 100% slam dunk.

[EdwardTH]

Originally Posted by esquire

I would love to hear Mark Chipman's frank thoughts on the decision making behind putting the arena, TNS and Centrepoint developments where they are. If he could go back in time, would he still have done it the same way?

On one hand the area is becoming flat-out distressed and it may have been easier to attract fans and tenants in the long term had it all been built at, say, Polo Park. But on the other hand, all the subsidies wouldn't have materialized out there. Plus the Eaton's factor brought Thomson into the fold.

Oh man do people ever have selective memories. Do you actually remember how dead the area was back in 2003 before they built the place? No pulse. Buried 6 feet under. Even after the pandemic it's better now than it was then, I'd even say it's still better than it was in 2010 before the NHL came back... There's now a theatre, hotel, 2 office towers, 400 new residential units, and half a dozen new food & bev spots where before there was mostly shuttered buildings and empty lots. Not everybody clutches their pearls at the sight of a few homeless people the way you seem to. But Chipman is also in a great position to spearhead some real change on that front, he could easily do a lot more if it's a big issue from a business standpoint.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by trueviking

remember when they unveiled true north square everyone was upset because it wasn't big enough to host the street parties...like they were going to be a thing every spring....my bet is that even if they have a long run this year the street parties will be a fraction of what they were in 2018....the jets can't even fill the barn anymore...

Exactly that. There are a lot of costs associated with the street parties. I think everyone will be content to make TNS the viewing area and limit it to that, I don't think anyone will have an appetite to deal with the costs and logistical headaches of the 2018 style multi block parties.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by esquire

I wouldn't say the best alternative to the current SHED was Headingley or some other place outside the Perimeter. Polo Park is basically downtown lite these days, it's very easy to imagine an arena and office development taking shape there. There were also other potential locations, like for instance, somewhere along Kenaston, near Pembina and Bishop Grandin, the old Canada Packers site, etc.
.

I call everything past Polo Park, Headingley.

I actually can't see a seven tower residential, commercial, hotel development happening anywhere else in Winnipeg. I don't think the city is big enough or has enough tourists to support a stand alone suburban real estate play driven by an arena, like they built in Glendale.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by esquire

Exactly that. There are a lot of costs associated with the street parties. I think everyone will be content to make TNS the viewing area and limit it to that, I don't think anyone will have an appetite to deal with the costs and logistical headaches of the 2018 style multi block parties.

I think people just aren't as into the jets anymore as well....they average 1500 empty seats per game and often only have 13000 in the building....third lowest attendance in the NHL....close to second lowest only to the team playing games in a college arena.

I also think life has become a competition to see who can not leave their house the most....people just don't go out and do things anymore.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by EdwardTH

Oh man do people ever have selective memories. Do you actually remember how dead the area was back in 2003 before they built the place? No pulse. Buried 6 feet under. Even after the pandemic it's better now than it was then, I'd even say it's still better than it was in 2010 before the NHL came back... There's now a theatre, hotel, 2 office towers, 400 new residential units, and half a dozen new food & bev spots where before there was mostly shuttered buildings and empty lots. Not everybody clutches their pearls at the sight of a few homeless people the way you seem to. But Chipman is also in a great position to spearhead some real change on that front, he could easily do a lot more if it's a big issue from a business standpoint.

The area has physically improved since the days that the entire block Eaton's once occupied was abandoned and the TNS site was a parking lot. No question. But as far as long-term marketability goes, once the sheen of newness eventually wears off and residential/office/retail leases at TNS start expiring, it could be a real challenge to fill them up given the state of the surrounding area.

I don't doubt that Chipman has the area's best interests at heart. But he isn't God, he can't fix everything on his own. I mean, Chipman has directed the better part of a billion dollars worth of investment over the years between Ellice and St. Mary Aves., and the area is still riddled with desolate sidewalks and empty storefronts. The only time you really see it come alive is when there is a Jets game or a big concert.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by trueviking

I think people just aren't as into the jets anymore as well....they average 1500 empty seats per game and often only have 13000 in the building....third lowest attendance in the NHL....close to second lowest only to the team playing games in a college arena.

I also think life has become a competition to see who can not leave their house the most....people just don't go out and do things anymore.

I would say people are still very much into the Jets, but they're realizing that you can be a fan and enjoy the team from the comfort of your own couch.

If you have a TV and a cable box you can watch every game and have arguably as enjoyable an experience as anyone in the stands. And even if you don't like the home experience as much, the hundreds of dollars you save each time you watch from home instead can be persuasive too, ha. If money is no object then that is less of a big deal, but I'd imagine that the pool of people who give no second thought to spending $400+ for 42 game nights plus playoffs is very, very small in this city.

To your last point, the may be a bit of a free rider dilemma emerging. I mean, someone has to buy tickets or the team leaves. But the TV experience is just so good and so cheap.

[rivercity]

Originally Posted by trueviking

I think people just aren't as into the jets anymore as well....they average 1500 empty seats per game and often only have 13000 in the building....third lowest attendance in the NHL....close to second lowest only to the team playing games in a college arena.

I also think life has become a competition to see who can not leave their house the most....people just don't go out and do things anymore.

Lifes expensive.. and to be honest, Canada Life Center just isnt an enjoyable experience for the price. You are fighting to get through the concourses, standing in line for the bathroom, as a taller guy there is no legroom at all in the seats, theres no local beers on tap so you pay exorbinant prices for a budweiser. overall its just not a great fan experience and i'd rather watch at home with friends.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by rivercity

Lifes expensive.. and to be honest, Canada Life Center just isnt an enjoyable experience for the price. You are fighting to get through the concourses, standing in line for the bathroom, as a taller guy there is no legroom at all in the seats, theres no local beers on tap so you pay exorbinant prices for a budweiser. overall its just not a great fan experience and i'd rather watch at home with friends.

yeah.....wasnt an issue for the first ten years....isnt an issue for the 30 cities ahead of the jets in attendance....including all those cities we used to make fun of for not being 'real hockey fans'

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by esquire

I would say people are still very much into the Jets, but they're realizing that you can be a fan and enjoy the team from the comfort of your own couch.

If you have a TV and a cable box you can watch every game and have arguably as enjoyable an experience as anyone in the stands. And even if you don't like the home experience as much, the hundreds of dollars you save each time you watch from home instead can be persuasive too, ha. If money is no object then that is less of a big deal, but I'd imagine that the pool of people who give no second thought to spending $400+ for 42 game nights plus playoffs is very, very small in this city.
.

they have tv's in every other city.

I won't argue that the city might be too small to support a major league franchise though...now that the honeymoon has worn off, that is becoming obvious....again....just wait until we don't have the top team in the western conference....rebuild is two years away....all the excuses, plus they are a bad team will be scary.

[GreyGarden]

Originally Posted by esquire

If money is no object then that is less of a big deal, but I'd imagine that the pool of people who give no second thought to spending $400+ for 42 game nights plus playoffs is very, very small in this city.

In my opinion, this gets at likely the biggest long term hurdle the Jets face. All other NHL markets have more people willing to spend a couple hundred dollars a night on the NHL. That isn’t even thinking about out of city tourists who take in a game during their visit. Winnipeg doesn’t get very many of those to begin with. I think the Jets have a solid fan base. But realistically, I’m usually all set going to one or two games a month. The number of people who can afford the NHL is limited in Winnipeg unfortunately. I’m not sure how the Jets handle that going forward. Hopefully our population continues to grow and the number of high earning jobs increase proportionally.

I don’t buy the game day experience excuse. I think not enough people in winnipeg make enough money for the NHL.

[EspionNoir]

Well in the past 2 years things aren’t the greatest. If there’s a decrease in activity, it’s reasonable.

I’ve been hiring for the replacement of myself in my current company. Around 70% of applicants are recent immigrant, another 20% are people who moved to Manitoba from another country within the last 2 years. Within the new immigrants, they have done some pretty impressive things in their home countries. They were high earners before moving to Manitoba.

Record-number of people are coming. High earners are indeed coming to here. Not too sure about the market here for high-paying jobs though. From what I’ve seen, they are able to find suitable roles for themselves.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by GreyGarden

I
I don’t buy the game day experience excuse. I think not enough people in winnipeg make enough money for the NHL.

agreed 100%.

I was in Vancouver recently and came out of a downtown shopping mall built exclusively for rich people....it was packed....it dawned on me then...how can Winnipeg ever compete with cities like this?....I can't buy an expensive shirt in Winnipeg even if I want to....the canucks are terrible but there's still a line of people who don't care that tickets cost $100...in Winnipeg, once the cobbled together groups who bought tickets went away, the harsh truth was exposed...there isn't enough wealth here to be a major league city.

I just hope they don't leave again until I'm dead.

[esquire]

I think that if TNSE ever rattles the chains a bit when it comes to tickets, people will jump in and buy them. Obviously they wouldn't do that lightly, but people here would step up. I don't doubt that. It's not like 1995 when no one in Winnipeg wanted to own the team and there was no prospect of a modern building to play in. Ownership and building are not an issue today... TNSE is just in a position where they have to market the team which they've had the luxury of not having to do for the first decade. Winnipeg is not the only city that discounts Tuesday night game tickets.

[theruler462]

^^It is an issue for the 30 teams ahead of us in attendance though. This is not a Winnipeg centric phenomenon. Declining attendance is widespread across the league. Even blue chip markets like Chicago have plenty of empty seats. Did you notice the number of empty seats in Montreal last week when the Jets played there? Isn't Montreal the mecca of hockey? (Toronto fans would argue that)

According to the Athletic, average attendance in Winnipeg was 13,979 in early December. That's 93.2% of capacity. It's also a ratio of 59.7 based on metro population/attendance. Other markets looks like:

-Arizona: 4,600 avg att. 92%. Ratio of 1,043.5
-Chicago: 15,833 avg att. 77.2%. Ratio of 606.3
-Toronto: 18,693 avg att. 99.3%. Ratio of 331.7
-Montreal: 21,011 avg att. 98.8%. Ratio of 200.0
-San Jose: 14,006 avg att. 79.8%. Ratio of 142.8 (higher if you include the entire Bay area)
-Edmonton: 17,357 avg att. 93.1%. Ratio of 80.7

You could argue that Winnipeg is a stronger market than any of the above. You could argue that it's the strongest market in the league! A much larger proportion of our population takes in Jets games than anywhere else in the League. We are the smallest market. That has repercussions on the total revenue a place like Winnipeg can bring in. But to argue that Winnipeggers are turning away from the Jets in record numbers, or that our true colours are finally coming out and we'll lose our team in 5 years is not defensible. Why aren't the rich bankers filling the seats to 100% in Toronto? Where are the tech workers in San Jose?

Several years ago, half the arenas, including Winnipeg, were reporting 100% attendance numbers. Now, not so much. Only 4 arenas have 100% attendance at this point (Vegas, Seattle, Washington, Nashville). Any decline in attendance has nothing to do with Winnipeg specifically but is explained by developments on a macro scale (ticket prices, COVID, comfort of home, fatigue, etc.).

[esquire]

I think the NHL is starting to hit the wall in terms of ticket costs. There are certain markets where demand is so vast that they can keep rising, like NYC and Toronto where it's no doubt mostly corporate accounts. But in most other cities, there are a lot of people paying for the tickets in after-tax dollars and eventually you hit the wall in terms of what you can justify. People won't blindly shell out $10,000 a year for a pair of upper deck season tickets just so the league can pay 4th line centres $4 million. Tickets are much more expensive now than they were a decade ago when the Jets came back and that has to be a factor in all of this.

At a certain point a lot of people are going to look at how much they're spending on tickets and realize what else they could be doing with that mone. It could just be that because Winnipeg is a smaller and less affluent city that tipping point will be reached a bit earlier. But everywhere has its limits. Even in LA where Bentleys are normal commuter cars, people will realize that there could be better things to do with $1000 than to buy a pair of prime seats for a Kings game.