General Phoenix Metro Discussion Thread

[IndyAZ]

Originally Posted by xymox

The issue with Anthem is water. You're going to pay a LOT more for water in Anthem than you would in the city of Phoenix itself.

Water is really expensive, but the West side of Anthem (West of I-17) is actually City of Phoenix water, but obviously that is a much smaller percentage of the homes.

[ChelseaFC]

Originally Posted by xymox

I'd avoid Desert Hills unless you want to live in an area that's nearly 100% un-governed. Some nice places there - but your neighbors can easily mess it up for you and you will have little recourse.

Yeah the idea was to be at a higher elevation and be close to the high country in order to escape during summer. And if companies like TSMC are going to bring more development and amenities to the area, figured why not get in now before the area booms.

I think I might not be referring to the proper area when I said “Desert Hills”. I was thinking more of the Sonoran Foothills/Tramanto areas near I-17. Is that what you were referring to in terms of the “ungoverned area?”

[combusean]

Desert Hills is that huge chunk of low density stuff in between and east of Tramonto and Anthem.

It is county land with none of the quality of life protections or services that living in Phoenix will give you. No code enforcement, it's private or well water, no city garbage, there is a fire district and sheriff but don't expect decent response times. New River to the north is very similar.

If you're going to be looking in that area you really need to know what exactly you're getting into.

Generally speaking if your neighbors have horses, it's county land. The City of Phoenix, etc developments tend to all look the same like Tramonto with similar housing and sidewalks and civilization instead of the more Mad Max appearance of the county land. Do not rely on what Google says is Phoenix btw. It has the borders but streetview is generally all wrong. Zip codes tend to bleed over too.

[xymox]

Originally Posted by ChelseaFC

Yeah the idea was to be at a higher elevation and be close to the high country in order to escape during summer. And if companies like TSMC are going to bring more development and amenities to the area, figured why not get in now before the area booms.

I think I might not be referring to the proper area when I said “Desert Hills”. I was thinking more of the Sonoran Foothills/Tramanto areas near I-17. Is that what you were referring to in terms of the “ungoverned area?”

Ah - yeah like it's been said Desert Hills is east of there. I have lived in the area you describe - and I did enjoy it there. Pretty quiet and limited amenities but that of course will change quickly I think. The only real issue that was going on around there was constant break-ins to cars parked on the streets or in your driveway. One guy had a 🞵🞵🞵 stolen from his truck four times.... People assume since its out there that its a 'leave your doors unlocked' kinda place - but its just like most anywhere else in suburbia around here. Only real complaint is City of PHX doesn't seem to know how to properly zone the area and things change so much. For example - there are homes now that border the refuse transfer station - and that was never zoned for that. So people bought these $500k homes that had a back yard up to that thing and then complained about the smell and noise...

[ChelseaFC]

Originally Posted by xymox

Ah - yeah like it's been said Desert Hills is east of there. I have lived in the area you describe - and I did enjoy it there. Pretty quiet and limited amenities but that of course will change quickly I think. The only real issue that was going on around there was constant break-ins to cars parked on the streets or in your driveway. One guy had a 🞵🞵🞵 stolen from his truck four times.... People assume since its out there that its a 'leave your doors unlocked' kinda place - but its just like most anywhere else in suburbia around here. Only real complaint is City of PHX doesn't seem to know how to properly zone the area and things change so much. For example - there are homes now that border the refuse transfer station - and that was never zoned for that. So people bought these $500k homes that had a back yard up to that thing and then complained about the smell and noise...

When buying in PHX, what is the key to making sure you’re not buying in an area like Rio Verde Foothills where they only had a temporary water agreement with a municipality? That is, where the water could get shut off and the residents are screwed having to figure out their own water if they don’t have a well? Is it solely a matter of incorporation? You mentioned that the water is more expensive in the majority of Anthem, so before considering a purchase it would be good to know how to identify the water stability of an area, especially if the goal is long term desirability and property appreciation.

[Obadno]

Up by tsmc you are already significantly higher elevation that will bring temps down anywhere from 1-5 degrees most of the year. The entire valley is on a consistent but barely noticeable grade from the river north to the mountains. So really anything on the north sprawl of the suburbs is going to be higher elevation.

As for water it’s definitely the current bugaboo but if you back up Arizona is actually pretty good with water. Any current cute for the Colorado river most impacts agriculture and the state is now and always has been very proactive with its water. It really isn’t going to be a serious concern for a homeowner unless you have lots and lots of lush grass and landscaping and need to pay for a bunch of water.

[Prestige Worldwide]

Originally Posted by ChelseaFC

When buying in PHX, what is the key to making sure you’re not buying in an area like Rio Verde Foothills where they only had a temporary water agreement with a municipality? That is, where the water could get shut off and the residents are screwed having to figure out their own water if they don’t have a well? Is it solely a matter of incorporation? You mentioned that the water is more expensive in the majority of Anthem, so before considering a purchase it would be good to know how to identify the water stability of an area, especially if the goal is long term desirability and property appreciation.

The solution is to only buy property where the municipal government is the one providing the water. They likely have superior water rights/sources than unincorporated areas or municipalities relying on EPCOR or private water. Take it one step further, the cities endowed with SRP water rights (Phoenix, Tempe, Scottsdale, Mesa, Glendale, Peoria, (I think Chandler and Gilbert too)) are the best places to buy if long-term water supply is your major concern.

[xymox]

Originally Posted by Prestige Worldwide

The solution is to only buy property where the municipal government is the one providing the water. They likely have superior water rights/sources than unincorporated areas or municipalities relying on EPCOR or private water. Take it one step further, the cities endowed with SRP water rights (Phoenix, Tempe, Scottsdale, Mesa, Glendale, Peoria, (I think Chandler and Gilbert too)) are the best places to buy if long-term water supply is your major concern.

Yes - make sure you're in an incorporated area and that you are getting city water/services. This can even bite you in terms of fire/emergency services in some areas that rely on Rural/Metro for fire. (i.e. there is a county island full of multi-million dollar homes in the middle or north Peoria that is like this and fire response is horrible - and the people there won't pay city of Peoria or incorporate into Peoria so...)

Personally, having lived in the area you are you looking at - I think that your money is better spent over in north Peoria. Vistancia has a lot of nice new areas - it'll be a bit more upscale and quiet, while giving you the hills/desert scenery. It's a bit further out, but worth it IMHO. You shouldn't have to worry about city services either. Peoria has great city planning as well (at least up north) - was always impressed with their zoning processes and how they approached projects (i.e. not half building major arteries into new areas like City of PHX does so often)

[ChelseaFC]

Originally Posted by xymox

Personally, having lived in the area you are you looking at - I think that your money is better spent over in north Peoria. Vistancia has a lot of nice new areas - it'll be a bit more upscale and quiet, while giving you the hills/desert scenery. It's a bit further out, but worth it IMHO. You shouldn't have to worry about city services either. Peoria has great city planning as well (at least up north) - was always impressed with their zoning processes and how they approached projects (i.e. not half building major arteries into new areas like City of PHX does so often)

North Peoria is fine, and while Vistancia does look nice, it's just a little too far out. We both will have jobs that we need to commute to, so it needs to be within Loop 303 minimum, but preferably closer to 101 or I-17.

There are some nice looking areas along north metro I-17 that are still within the City of Phoenix, so we don't necessarily have to be up as far as Anthem. Maybe I'll ask agents for some copies of water bills from homes with City of Phoenix water and those within Anthem/EPCOR areas to see just how drastic a difference we're looking at.

[ASU Diablo]

Pulling some quotes from the article. Hopefully Phoenix metro area keeps all this momentum going and come ahead w/ the upcoming slowdown...

https://azbigmedia.com/business/heres-why-metro-phoenix-is-on-the-way-to-becoming-a-tier-1-market/

Az Business: Let’s start with 2022. What’s one of your top line takeaways from last year?

Chris Camacho: We’re still in this supercycle where we’re seeing global companies in advanced technologies — whether that’s semiconductors, battery and energy storage, electric vehicles (EVs) or even data centers — expanding in the U.S. at unparalleled levels.

AB: How long has Arizona been in this supercycle?

CC: For about the past five to six years. Fortunately for us as a market, what these industries care about is quality, redundant infrastructure and strong labor pools that continue to produce labor. We also have the tailwinds of continued population growth and a pro-business policy environment.

When you put all those things together, that’s why we’ve seen success with EVs, with LG Energy going down to Queen Creek, or with TSMC and all the supply chain that’s followed. A lot of the leaders that I talk to nationally are saying this is still going to continue for the next five years. We’re very well situated for this industrial technology renaissance.

AB: So, you’re saying Arizona won’t be as affected by a slowdown compared to other states?

CC: I don’t think we’ll be fully immune to some of the effects. We’re a top three industrial market in the U.S. right now. I do think that level of activity continues through 2023 and into 2024, so I’m optimistic about all of that. But I do think this cost reset, driven by a tightening debt market, is going to put a bit of pause on the acceleration that we’ve seen for a decade.

AB: Is Greater Phoenix on the way to becoming a Tier 1 market?

CC: I think we’re unequivocally on that path. I can’t wait until my kids get their first jobs in the next 15 years — hopefully in Phoenix — and can look back and say that we all played a small part in what this place has become. We have the chance to be exceptional, and we need to harness that opportunity.

[Obadno]

Anyone else annoyed that there has been a slew of articles saying we have run out of water in the national media when we have not run out of water?

Driving me crazy.

[azsunsurfer]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Anyone else annoyed that there has been a slew of articles saying we have run out of water in the national media when we have not run out of water?

Driving me crazy.

Yeah and they have to bury lines in the articles too "on an unseasonal wet day"...."even though it did rain 3 inches yesterday" etc.

BTW anyone else notice that on the Drought monitor map the state is practically out of a drought along with NM. California is still in worse shape than us even with all the recent rains.

[DesertRay]

Originally Posted by azsunsurfer

Yeah and they have to bury lines in the articles too "on an unseasonal wet day"...."even though it did rain 3 inches yesterday" etc.

BTW anyone else notice that on the Drought monitor map the state is practically out of a drought along with NM. California is still in worse shape than us even with all the recent rains.

Our water woes are decades in the making. Lake Mead didn't suddenly fill up. The rain is good news, the but long-term projections are still grim. If we get these kinds of conditions for the rest of the year, and then a few more years again, then things might turn around, but it took a decade + of dry conditions to jolt us out of the slumber we fell into when we were in one of the wettest periods in our history. We still have big-time water problems, despite a good soak.

[YourBuddy]

Originally Posted by DesertRay

Our water woes are decades in the making. Lake Mead didn't suddenly fill up. The rain is good news, the but long-term projections are still grim. If we get these kinds of conditions for the rest of the year, and then a few more years again, then things might turn around, but it took a decade + of dry conditions to jolt us out of the slumber we fell into when we were in one of the wettest periods in our history. We still have big-time water problems, despite a good soak.

Yep, this hasn’t helped the conditions at Lake Mead or the Colorado River yet, the rain and improving drought severity is good to prevent the ground soaking up snowpack run off this spring.

[azsunsurfer]

The only thing that will solve our water problem is Nimbyism of all types. No master planned communities, no more distribution centers, no more apartments, no water issues!

[MiEncanto]

Originally Posted by azsunsurfer

The only thing that will solve our water problem is Nimbyism of all types. No master planned communities, no more distribution centers, no more apartments, no water issues!

lol I see you're not familiar with water usage.

Ag uses 75% of AZ water. When a community replaces a farm, water usage per acre declines there. Residential is not our issue. Neither is commercial or data centers. That's twitter analysis. The major issue is people not paying market rates for water because they are not in an managed water area and are using ground water without restriction or paying market rates. And the historic grip Ag has on the state. The reality is we need to move away from water thirsty Ag or at least charge a market rate so they can decide what makes sense. I hate to say it cuz I love Ag and I love farms and ranches, but AZ may not be the best place for many of them.

[azsunsurfer]

Originally Posted by MiEncanto

lol I see you're not familiar with water usage.

Ag uses 75% of AZ water. When a community replaces a farm, water usage per acre declines there. Residential is not our issue. Neither is commercial or data centers. That's twitter analysis. The major issue is people not paying market rates for water because they are not in an managed water area and are using ground water without restriction or paying market rates. And the historic grip Ag has on the state. The reality is we need to move away from water thirsty Ag or at least charge a market rate so they can decide what makes sense. I hate to say it cuz I love Ag and I love farms and ranches, but AZ may not be the best place for many of them.

If you love the price of food now, then you'll really love the price of food at that point...

[YourBuddy]

Originally Posted by MiEncanto

lol I see you're not familiar with water usage.

Ag uses 75% of AZ water. When a community replaces a farm, water usage per acre declines there. Residential is not our issue. Neither is commercial or data centers. That's twitter analysis. The major issue is people not paying market rates for water because they are not in an managed water area and are using ground water without restriction or paying market rates. And the historic grip Ag has on the state. The reality is we need to move away from water thirsty Ag or at least charge a market rate so they can decide what makes sense. I hate to say it cuz I love Ag and I love farms and ranches, but AZ may not be the best place for many of them.

It isn’t just paying market rates. It’s the use it or use it laws, along with lack of regulation that allow corporate farms to operate at the scale they do with little regulation during drought. You have farms from around the world that will never pay competitive rates to what they pay in their own country. We are talking about corporations that would need to pay almost 20 times more for water using desal systems back in their own countries. Our water management and the use it or lose it laws are the enemy of water conservation during drought. Makes zero sense that even if a farm wanted to conserve they would be punished by the laws their predecessors lobbied for. The water shortage tiers should be much more harsh and shared earlier among all the states.

[YourBuddy]

Originally Posted by azsunsurfer

If you love the price of food now, then you'll really love the price of food at that point...

Then it should be higher. This would be the first time drought has hit the pockets of the people that have caused it. Consumers from around the world have benefited off of our water for decades while they expect us to invest in expensive water conservation and water infrastructure. You could get rid of all the municipal use of water in Arizona and Nevada and not make a tiny dent in the conservation needed to just stop water losses. Meanwhile alfalfa water use from all sources in western states accounts for 30-60% of the total capacity of lake mead being used every single year.

If people want almonds, dairy and burgers during drought they should be paying for it. I wouldn’t feel even a little sad about it either considering those same people that benefit are from midwestern states that depend on the southwest for their food during winter, but also to turn their back on ever preserving the Colorado River with their own water sources,

[combusean]

The far west valley where the Saudi alfalfa farms are isn't in an active management area. That has been the literal wild west in terms of agriculture and development and isn't usually a place where ag has ever been sustainable. I actually kind of like this setup--it pretty much guarantees that places like Douglas Ranch and the 🞵🞵🞵🞵 around the sprawl developer's 🞵🞵🞵 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 "Hassayampa Valley Freeway Network" will never actually get built.

Most of arizona's agriculture has been canal water, not groundwater, and the money they pay for that has never been an issue.