Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[thurmas]

Originally Posted by lio45

Data is out for 2022.

SFHs in all of Quebec up +14% on average in 2022;
Condos up +12% on average in 2022.
(Multiplexes up quite a bit more than that, I’m sure.)

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2023/01/07/prix-des-maisons-ca-flambe-toujours-partout-au-quebec

Residential real estate in Sherbrooke went up by over +20% over the last year, but again my feeling is that multiplexes went up by more than just a mere ~20% in 2022.

Rents are higher than ever and still climbing, so, values are following.

I have been seeing a lot of Trois Rivieres commercials recently touting the housing affordability there compared to Montreal.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by thurmas

I have been seeing a lot of Trois Rivieres commercials recently touting the housing affordability there compared to Montreal.

Yeah, I don’t know if housing affordability is enough of a reason to leave Montreal for TR.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by theman23

Yeah, I don’t know if housing affordability is enough of a reason to leave Montreal for TR.

3R is actually decently urban and is dirt cheap by Montreal standards, let alone by Anglo-Canadian standards, so if you can WFH nowadays, and only have to show up occasionally in Greater Montreal, which is the case for many, it does make sense.

You can own your own real estate in 3R for less monthly cash flow than you’d spend on renting something in Mtl.

I expect the relative gap to narrow as it gets “discovered”, just like the Halifax-Toronto relative gap has almost certainly narrowed recently.

[Truenorth00]

If and when HFR comes to fruition, Trois Rivières will absolutely boom. 1 hr from downtown Montreal and Quebec City by rail makes it commutable to both.

[Truenorth00]

Toronto Star published a major piece on housing unaffordability.

For decades, a starter home was a place that the average working family could attain.

That notion has become increasingly scarce in the GTA as incomes and home prices became uncoupled around the year 2000.

...In 2005, the benchmark price for newly built homes was under $400,000. Last month, it was over $1.7 million… Even condos are $1.1 million, compared to under $300,000 in 2005.

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2023/01...single-family-starter-home-vanished.html

[someone123]

The huge run-up in multi-unit prices is a dead giveaway that it's not just about land availability and cost (and how it was OK to urbanize lots of land in 1995 but not 2015). It also has to do with capital flows, development capacity and economics, planning rules like zoning.

If young people could afford apartments but not houses that would still be a reduction in options and quality of life but it wouldn't be so bad. And in theory you can build nice multi-unit with good soundproofing, ample space, and amenities.

[theman23]

So basically condos in Toronto are now worth twice what houses would have been if they simply went up at the rate of inflation?

Nothing to see here, of course. Housing has never been more affordable, Canadians have just changed their preferences.

[Coldrsx]

There are serious signs of a real estate run/boom in Calgary and Edmonton won't be that far behind...




https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-population-increase-statscan-1.6694065

[lio45]

These numbers are hard to believe, unless you assume it's almost a lie to say that the population changed by +60,000 from July 2022 to October 2022, and that in fact the actual population change was more like +15,000. (If that's it, then that's totally believable, and the numbers are "normal".)

It would be nice if they were more careful with their words. Ontario growing by more than +150k per quarter would be adding more than 600k residents every year at that pace.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Coldrsx

There are serious signs of a real estate run/boom in Calgary and Edmonton won't be that far behind...


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-population-increase-statscan-1.6694065

It would be interesting to see whether the workforce is increasing or whether it is just people moving there who were flying in/out.

Another thing would be whether this will move the province more left or right politically.

[thebasketballgeek]

I’m not surprised in the slightest that Alberta grew by 60k tbh. Here in Winnipeg everyone and their mother are trying to move to Calgary rn. I know this has been a popular destination before but I’ve never seen it like this.

There’s going to be so much movement between the two cities soon you might be able to justify high speed rail plans to begin by 2050...

[lio45]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

I’m not surprised in the slightest that Alberta grew by 60k tbh. Here in Winnipeg everyone and their mother are trying to move to Calgary rn.

Sure, but ~250k per year? Doesn't seem sustainable.

If those are actual numbers for the quarter, then it's got to be because we allowed a glut of immigrants that were backlogged for a long time, to finally all get processed during that quarter.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

There’s going to be so much movement between the two cities soon you might be able to justify high speed rail plans to begin by 2050...

One-way HSR (westbound) might be justifiable and even then, when you move, you only do it once, so speed doesn't really matter (unlike when it's your commute).

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by lio45

One-way HSR (westbound) might be justifiable and even then, when you move, you only do it once, so speed doesn't really matter (unlike when it's your commute).

HFR there makes the most sense right now. Have some of those Siemens trains sent out there and run a service to build demand as the construction for HSR happens. HFR could happen much faster than HSR.

[thebasketballgeek]

Originally Posted by lio45

Sure, but ~250k per year? Doesn't seem sustainable.

If those are actual numbers for the quarter, then it's got to be because we allowed a glut of immigrants that were backlogged for a long time, to finally all get processed during that quarter.

Maybe Canada is lying to us and bringing many more immigrants then we are lead to believe. Cause every province grew by a ridiculous amount in a quarter for their standards. I mean 362k people in a quarter means Canada could be growing by more then 1 million per year.

[thebasketballgeek]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

HFR there makes the most sense right now. Have some of those Siemens trains sent out there and run a service to build demand as the construction for HSR happens. HFR could happen much faster than HSR.

Honestly I would 100% be ok with HFR if it goes at 200 km/h like they’re proposing in the QC-Toronto corridor. Especially since Regina as the middle point would be able to get too Calgary in 4 hours and Winnipeg in 3 hours. It could be a huge opportunity for them.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

Honestly I would 100% be ok with HFR if it goes at 200 km/h like they’re proposing in the QC-Toronto corridor. Especially since Regina as the middle point would be able to get too Calgary in 4 hours and Winnipeg in 3 hours. It could be a huge opportunity for them.

I didn;t see that the ON/QC HFR is supposed to go that fast. I thought it was just the 145km/hr that it goes now. At about 300km between the 2 cities, that would mean somewhere around 2 hours to do it.

[thebasketballgeek]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

I didn;t see that the ON/QC HFR is supposed to go that fast. I thought it was just the 145km/hr that it goes now. At about 300km between the 2 cities, that would mean somewhere around 2 hours to do it.

Yea just go down to the Potential Improvments section on the link below.

https://corpo.viarail.ca/en/projects-infrastructure/high-frequency-rail

“For example, trains could travel at speed of up to 200 kilometres per hour (124 miles per hour), reducing travel time from Ottawa to Toronto to as low as 3 hours and 15 minutes from the current travel times of approximately 4 hours and 30 minutes.”

Give me those 200 km/h trains baby! While we’re at it a Edmonton-Saskatoon-Winnipeg line wouldn’t hurt either.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

Yea just go down to the Potential Improvments section on the link below.

https://corpo.viarail.ca/en/projects-infrastructure/high-frequency-rail

“For example, trains could travel at speed of up to 200 kilometres per hour (124 miles per hour), reducing travel time from Ottawa to Toronto to as low as 3 hours and 15 minutes from the current travel times of approximately 4 hours and 30 minutes.”

Give me those 200 km/h trains baby! While we’re at it a Edmonton-Saskatoon-Winnipeg line wouldn’t hurt either.

Those are due to dedicated lines that do not have freight interactions.

You know, if AB used its oil money fr that, it would make it a good investment for the future.

[lio45]

Edmonton-Calgary would be a much more useful connection than Manitoba, no?