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Originally Posted by jollyburger
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From what I can see the 4.6m floodplane is the current anticipated flood potential that was introduced in 2012, as a result of a Provincial response to anticipated sea level rise. (Before that it was 3.5m). That was before any detailed modeling was carried out, and before any anticipation of 1.5 or 2 degrees (or more) of likely heating, and the effect that might add. The Coastal Climate model was generated in 2021, so is more recent, and based on more recent models of how sea levels might rise. This new map uses newer, more accurate elevation data than earlier versions, so it should more accurately reflect what is likely to happen (given the global temperature rise that's currently anticipated).
Obviously what it doesn't do it take into account whatever new flood defences get built. Those are currently being planned on a regional, as well as local basis, which is presumably why the agreement on Senakw references the potential for others to construct a dike. The current work at Metro doesn't seem to be addressing physical interventions, but rather at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and keeping temperature rise to as low as possible.
An earlier City of Vancouver report said that a barrier might be a better way to deal with sea level rise, rather than raising the dike all the way round the water's edge. All of this gets more attention from politicians as flooding events become more frequent (and more expensive). But so far nobody has stepped up and agreed to spend billions on whichever approach is chosen.