VIA Rail

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by GoTrans

That’s what happens when passenger rail service is cancelled. But at least the tracks still exist unlike other places where the right of way has been abandoned. Being marginally slower than driving us one thing, but 50% slower is outrageous. I agree 100% that this route should have 2x daily service at a minimum. Since this is an interprovincial route it should be Via’s mandate to provide service.

What's the point of two trains a day that would be slower than driving? At that point, the better value is 4-6x buses per day. More frequencies. Low cost.

Trains for the sake of trains is a pointless waste of taxpayer money. If you can't build a better service than what buses could provide, don't bother. Just stick with buses.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

HFR slowly morphing into HSR with a privatization of VIA's Corridor services.

• Video Link

Maybe I am missing something but I am not following his logic. The private contractor will build whatever the government pays for, it is really no different than any other procurement project. His only evidence they want to pay for high speed rail is an off-the-cuff remark by the transport minister. The rest of his argument is based on the the fact previous HFR plan made no sense, which is true but not evidence that an HSR plan is in the works.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Maybe I am missing something but I am not following his logic. The private contractor will build whatever the government pays for, it is really no different than any other procurement project. His only evidence they want to pay for high speed rail is an off-the-cuff remark by the transport minister. The rest of his argument is based on the the fact previous HFR plan made no sense, which is true but not evidence that an HSR plan is in the works.

Yea - it’s not anything crazy official but the off the cuff remark likely comes from somewhere.

The problem with HFR is that we have next to no actual details on it, we basically have to rely on off the cuff remarks to get any sort of information on it.

[Truenorth00]

^ I don't buy Reece's analysis yet. But putting it out there to show what some railfans think is transpiring. The most interesting part about this video is the suggestion that VIA is being split and the Corridor privatized to ensure it survives a change of government. That's the first real argument I've seen for privatizing the Corridor.

Also to be fair to him, one of the potential bidders actually whined publicly about not being allowed to just offer high speed rail:

https://www.lapresse.ca/affaires/entrepr...ide-pour-une-solution-du-xxie-siecle.php

The theory among some rail fans is that this could be like the latest TGV line where the private sector put in 40% of capital required. If the government puts in $12B and the winning consortium puts in $8B you can probably get lower end HSR from Toronto to Quebec. I'm not quite sure that's what is planned yet (we'll know more after RFP) but the list of respondees to the REFOI certainly has a number of companies that could form HSR consortiums:



I'm of two minds here. Either industry is telling the government that HFR is not profitable and they want to build HSR. Or this is the Liberals trying to get HSR on an HFR budget. I guess we'll know after the RFPs go out in six months and the bids come back in 15 months.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

If you wanted this in that corridor you mentioned, the first would be Via. They used to run that corridor. However, that is unlikely to happen. So, the next best thing would be to get the 2 provincial governments to collaborate and get it happening. The Northlander is coming back due to public push for it.

As far as timing, it is about 5 hours between Moncton and Halifax on the Ocean. Driving, it is almost 3 hours. Timmins to Toronto will be 10 hours on the train, and driving it is 7.5 hours.

I imagine it would have to be VIA. Neither NB or NS is particularly interested in operating a railway (although growth in Halifax is so rapid, I think the NS government should be exploring commuter and exurban regional rail right now with a view towards deployment in the 2030s).

There is no reason why rail travel on the Saint John/Moncton/Halifax corridor has to be so slow. The trackage is of high standard. Freight traffic is not so frequent that it would require that many stops on sidings because of conflicts, and this could be mitigated by building more sidings. There would only be a limited number of passenger stops along the way (Saint John, Sussex, Moncton, Sackville, Amherst, Truro, Enfield (connector bus to YHZ) and Halifax). I imagine you could cut the travel time from Halifax to Saint John to less than six hours (about four hours by car not counting gas and pee breaks).

There will have to be a resurgence in rail as a form of mass transportation sometime this century as ICE vehicles reach the end of the road. EVs are not the complete answer, and regional air travel of less than 800 km or so exerts a significant environmental penalty. Rail (especially electrified rail) is the answer.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

^ I don't buy Reece's analysis yet. But putting it out there to show what some railfans think is transpiring. The most interesting part about this video is the suggestion that VIA is being split and the Corridor privatized to ensure it survives a change of government. That's the first real argument I've seen for privatizing the Corridor.

Also to be fair to him, one of the potential bidders actually whined publicly about not being allowed to just offer high speed rail:

https://www.lapresse.ca/affaires/entrepr...ide-pour-une-solution-du-xxie-siecle.php

The theory among some rail fans is that this could be like the latest TGV line where the private sector put in 40% of capital required. If the government puts in $12B and the winning consortium puts in $8B you can probably get lower end HSR from Toronto to Quebec. I'm not quite sure that's what is planned yet (we'll know more after RFP) but the list of respondees to the REFOI certainly has a number of companies that could form HSR consortiums:

I'm of two minds here. Either industry is telling the government that HFR is not profitable and they want to build HSR. Or this is the Liberals trying to get HSR on an HFR budget. I guess we'll know after the RFPs go out in six months and the bids come back in 15 months.

Obviously the companies want to try to upsell their offering. Maybe it will work. I just think the HSR cost is going to be a big scary number that will freak out political operatives just before an election.

Ironically if they had done this in 2016 instead of dicking around with the fake Via plan for years then there could probably be shovels in the ground already, and it would have been a way easier sell before the pandemic.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

You are right! I forgot about them.



ONR getting trains the same as Via, running on the tracks that exist in northern ON is no indicator of HSR in Canada. With that title, RM has lost my respect on his opinion on transportation things.



As others have said, the Ontario government owns the tracks north of North Bay. The Ontario government operated the former service.

If you wanted this in that corridor you mentioned, the first would be Via. They used to run that corridor. However, that is unlikely to happen. So, the next best thing would be to get the 2 provincial governments to collaborate and get it happening. The Northlander is coming back due to public push for it.



As far as timing, it is about 5 hours between Moncton and Halifax on the Ocean. Driving, it is almost 3 hours. Timmins to Toronto will be 10 hours on the train, and driving it is 7.5 hours.

Only 10 hours from here to T.O. is not bad at all considering how much more comfortable a train is. I didn't know that it is supposed to be that fast. And I'm hoping it means to Union Station. Driving time has been faster ever since it has been fully divided highway from North Bay to Toronto. But going by bus takes a long time and over 12 hours I believe with many stops.

The station in Timmins will be located in Porcupine and will be across the street from family members of mine. It is about a 20 minute drive West of downtown. They are excited because they have to go to Toronto for medical appointments often enough and this will make things easier and enjoyable. The station will be located along an existing Timmins Transit bus route which is really good.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Obviously the companies want to try to upsell their offering. Maybe it will work.

I recall when HFR was first proposed, it was argued that it was less profitable than HSR. But also substantially less risk, because it was a lower capital commitment. But now that we're getting into fully electrified and substantial development, coming to $12B, there's certainly an argument to just give that money to industry and let them come up with something better. After all, the big money is with competing with airlines (seeing as we have some of the most expensive flights anywhere).

It should also be noted that the large pension plans also publicly complained at one point the there weren't really large infrastructure projects in Canada, for them to invest in.

I'm a little weary. This is exactly the kind of scope creep HFR was supposed to avoid. And it's definitely going to lead to HSR services that are fairly expensive. Something that Yves Desjardins-Siciliano warned about, if HSR was picked over HFR. HSR isn't cheap when it's not subsidized. If people think VIA Corridor tickets are expensive now, just wait till that yield management model can price against airfare. And I worry that this gives an opening for political opponents.

Originally Posted by acottawa

I just think the HSR cost is going to be a big scary number that will freak out political operatives just before an election.

It absolutely will. The running theory is that signing a contract with a large private sector consortium before the election will dissuade a future government from cancellation. Especially if said consortium includes large international infrastructure developers (SNCF, DB, RATP, Network Rail) and a major Canadian financier (CDPQ Infra, Ontario Teachers, or CPPIB). There seems to be a hope that PP won't want to tank Canada's reputation for investment by cancelling something this big. I'm personally not sure that theory holds given his views on public spending. This could be the Poilievre version of Chrétien cancelling the EH-101.

Originally Posted by acottawa

Ironically if they had done this in 2016 instead of dicking around with the fake Via plan for years then there could probably be shovels in the ground already, and it would have been a way easier sell before the pandemic.

Fully agree. This was the one priority I wish they addressed. $100B in deficits before COVID and they couldn't start on the two rail projects (QW/HFR and CalEd) that would have made a meaningful difference to both the economy and quality of life for a good chunk of the population.

[Truenorth00]

Either way, with the appointment of the HFR Board, we're now looking at the end of VIA as we know it. And probably privatization of all Corridor services. I'm surprised how little public decision there has been on this. It's a massive change for rail services in this country.

[PEI highway guy]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I imagine it would have to be VIA. Neither NB or NS is particularly interested in operating a railway (although growth in Halifax is so rapid, I think the NS government should be exploring commuter and exurban regional rail right now with a view towards deployment in the 2030s).

There is no reason why rail travel on the Saint John/Moncton/Halifax corridor has to be so slow. The trackage is of high standard. Freight traffic is not so frequent that it would require that many stops on sidings because of conflicts, and this could be mitigated by building more sidings. There would only be a limited number of passenger stops along the way (Saint John, Sussex, Moncton, Sackville, Amherst, Truro, Enfield (connector bus to YHZ) and Halifax). I imagine you could cut the travel time from Halifax to Saint John to less than six hours (about four hours by car not counting gas and pee breaks).

There will have to be a resurgence in rail as a form of mass transportation sometime this century as ICE vehicles reach the end of the road. EVs are not the complete answer, and regional air travel of less than 800 km or so exerts a significant environmental penalty. Rail (especially electrified rail) is the answer.

I come from a rail family where at least 10 members of both mom/dads side worked for CNR or CN Marine /Marine Atlantic. In talking to my family they tell me the cost of VIA is SKY HIGH and the6 train IS AWAYS LATE. There is a slow order of 60 km or so on the line ViA USES DUE TO POOR TRACK CONDITiONS. iT WILL BE HARD for Via to attrract new customers unless these issues are addressed. I do not think the Maritimes is a high priority for this company.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by PEI highway guy

I come from a rail family where at least 10 members of both mom/dads side worked for CNR or CN Marine /Marine Atlantic. In talking to my family they tell me the cost of VIA is SKY HIGH and the6 train IS AWAYS LATE. There is a slow order of 60 km or so on the line ViA USES DUE TO POOR TRACK CONDITIOONS. iT WILL BE HARD for Via to attrract new customers unless these issues are addressed. I do not think the Maritimes is a high priority for this company.

Their priorities are set by the government (not VIA itself). And no federal government has really been willing to invest to develop new corridors beyond Quebec-Windsor.

But again, I ask. What's the point? If a car can do it in 4 hrs. And a bus can do it in 5 hrs. What's the point of a train that only runs once or twice a day and takes 6 hrs? It would be an absolute money pit and probably not last more than a few years. If a train service is to be built, at least make sure it's faster than any bus. If not actually faster than driving....

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

^ I don't buy Reece's analysis yet. But putting it out there to show what some railfans think is transpiring. The most interesting part about this video is the suggestion that VIA is being split and the Corridor privatized to ensure it survives a change of government. That's the first real argument I've seen for privatizing the Corridor.

Also to be fair to him, one of the potential bidders actually whined publicly about not being allowed to just offer high speed rail:



The theory among some rail fans is that this could be like the latest TGV line where the private sector put in 40% of capital required. If the government puts in $12B and the winning consortium puts in $8B you can probably get lower end HSR from Toronto to Quebec. I'm not quite sure that's what is planned yet (we'll know more after RFP) but the list of respondees to the REFOI certainly has a number of companies that could form HSR consortiums:



I'm of two minds here. Either industry is telling the government that HFR is not profitable and they want to build HSR. Or this is the Liberals trying to get HSR on an HFR budget. I guess we'll know after the RFPs go out in six months and the bids come back in 15 months.

My thinking is that HSR money is too hard to push through the government, but HFR money isn't. My other thought is that the Havelock Sub is easy for HFR, but more challenging for HSR due to the curves.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I imagine it would have to be VIA. Neither NB or NS is particularly interested in operating a railway (although growth in Halifax is so rapid, I think the NS government should be exploring commuter and exurban regional rail right now with a view towards deployment in the 2030s).

There is no reason why rail travel on the Saint John/Moncton/Halifax corridor has to be so slow. The trackage is of high standard. Freight traffic is not so frequent that it would require that many stops on sidings because of conflicts, and this could be mitigated by building more sidings. There would only be a limited number of passenger stops along the way (Saint John, Sussex, Moncton, Sackville, Amherst, Truro, Enfield (connector bus to YHZ) and Halifax). I imagine you could cut the travel time from Halifax to Saint John to less than six hours (about four hours by car not counting gas and pee breaks).

There will have to be a resurgence in rail as a form of mass transportation sometime this century as ICE vehicles reach the end of the road. EVs are not the complete answer, and regional air travel of less than 800 km or so exerts a significant environmental penalty. Rail (especially electrified rail) is the answer.

This is why I feel that Via may start adding new routes. It is an easy way for the federal government to get Canada to carbon neutral. Back a few years, I think it was determined that even existing Tier 4 trains are more carbon neutral than cars and planes for shorter routes.

Originally Posted by Loco101

Only 10 hours from here to T.O. is not bad at all considering how much more comfortable a train is. I didn't know that it is supposed to be that fast. And I'm hoping it means to Union Station. Driving time has been faster ever since it has been fully divided highway from North Bay to Toronto. But going by bus takes a long time and over 12 hours I believe with many stops.

The station in Timmins will be located in Porcupine and will be across the street from family members of mine. It is about a 20 minute drive West of downtown. They are excited because they have to go to Toronto for medical appointments often enough and this will make things easier and enjoyable. The station will be located along an existing Timmins Transit bus route which is really good.

It would be nice to see the line extended into Timmins proper. The dreamer in me wants it to the old train station, but, the realist in me says that getting it to Schumacher would be good enough. There is no station in Porcupine, so something will need to be built. How large and ornate it is will be a good indication of what the plans are. If it is a small building with a few bus bays, then it may be a long term temporary terminus. However, if it is as expansive as North Bay's is, with the bus areas covered, then we know there are no long term plans to extend the line. Before anyone argues about it, with 3 ONR buses serving Timmins, I can see Autobus Meheux extending at least 1 route to there as well. Then there are 2 city bus routes to Porcupine and 3 to Schumacher. That would be plenty for a covered bus area.

https://cdn5-hosted.civiclive.com/UserFi.../Timmins%20Transit%20Map%20and%20KEY.jpg

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Either way, with the appointment of the HFR Board, we're now looking at the end of VIA as we know it. And probably privatization of all Corridor services. I'm surprised how little public decision there has been on this. It's a massive change for rail services in this country.

I doubt we will see it privatized as it is what props up the rest of the Via service. I almost feel gutting government agencies (ahem CMHC) isn't about to happen regardless of which party gets in. I think we collectively have learned that governments need to provide a service, regardless of its profitability. It wouldn't surprise me if another order of the Siemens trains are ordered for a Banff -Calgary-Edmonton service in the next decade. While it may not be a hyperloop or HSR, it would help Alberta be more carbon neutral.

Originally Posted by PEI highway guy

I come from a rail family where at least 10 members of both mom/dads side worked for CNR or CN Marine /Marine Atlantic. In talking to my family they tell me the cost of VIA is SKY HIGH and the6 train IS AWAYS LATE. There is a slow order of 60 km or so on the line ViA USES DUE TO POOR TRACK CONDITIOONS. iT WILL BE HARD for Via to attrract new customers unless these issues are addressed. I do not think the Maritimes is a high priority for this company.

Let me say straight up that the only thing Via cares about is the Corridor. The rest it has to run legally. If they could shut the rest down, it would be shut down.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

I doubt we will see it privatized as it is what props up the rest of the Via service.

Privatization of the Corridor as part of HFR was literally included in REFOI. The only way this doesn't happen is if HFR gets cancelled. The appointment of this board is the first step to splitting up VIA in preparation for the transition to the private development partner (PDP) that wins the RFP.

People really should read what is happening.

https://hfr-tgf.ca/whats-happening-now/

VIA's CEO (Cynthia Garneau) actually resigned when the plan was announced. So it's not like this some minor affair. People working there clearly see the writing on the wall.

Whether the rest of VIA's services survive after the Corridor is hived off remaind to be seen. I'm not optimistic. Especially after no investment for recapitalization of the long distance fleet is scheduled.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Privatization of the Corridor as part of HFR was literally included in REFOI. The only way this doesn't happen is if HFR gets cancelled. The appointment of this board is the first step to splitting up VIA in preparation for the transition to the private development partner (PDP) that wins the RFP.

People really should read what is happening.

https://hfr-tgf.ca/whats-happening-now/

VIA's CEO (Cynthia Garneau) actually resigned when the plan was announced. So it's not like this some minor affair. People working there clearly see the writing on the wall.

Whether the rest of VIA's services survive after the Corridor is hived off remaind to be seen. I'm not optimistic. Especially after no investment for recapitalization of the long distance fleet is scheduled.

I am guessing this is one way of the government trying to get out of the passenger rail service, much like how they got out of the passenger air service.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by PEI highway guy

I come from a rail family where at least 10 members of both mom/dads side worked for CNR or CN Marine /Marine Atlantic. In talking to my family they tell me the cost of VIA is SKY HIGH and the6 train IS AWAYS LATE. There is a slow order of 60 km or so on the line ViA USES DUE TO POOR TRACK CONDITiONS. iT WILL BE HARD for Via to attrract new customers unless these issues are addressed. I do not think the Maritimes is a high priority for this company.

My father worked for CNR too. I count myself a rail fan, and have a history of train travel when I was younger.

The speed limit you mention is based on track condition, and does not include the Halifax/Moncton/Saint John corridor.

For political reasons, VIA does not use the CNR mainline from Moncton to central Canada via Grand Falls and Edmundston. Instead, VIA is mandated to follow the less used and poorly maintained trackage northward to Miramichi, Bathurst, Campbellton and Rimouski. The section between Miramichi and Bathurst in particular carries no freight, and is falling apart. There is a hard speed limit here. This is what you are probably referring to. This is not relevant to the conversation, other than by pointing out that if VIA could use the main line to QC from Moncton, they could probably cut 4-5 hours off the duration of the Ocean journey from Halifax to Montreal.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

For political reasons, VIA does not use the CNR mainline from Moncton to central Canada via Grand Falls and Edmundston. Instead, VIA is mandated to follow the less used and poorly maintained trackage northward to Miramichi, Bathurst, Campbellton and Rimouski. The section between Miramichi and Bathurst in particular carries no freight, and is falling apart. There is a hard speed limit here. This is what you are probably referring to. This is not relevant to the conversation, other than by pointing out that if VIA could use the main line to QC from Moncton, they could probably cut 4-5 hours off the duration of the Ocean journey from Halifax to Montreal.

I don't think VIA is ever going to work in a semi-reasonable manner for the Maritimes nor will any sort of top-down federal entity work right. The feds probably would fund rail, but NS and NB will have to lead and come up with the plans if anything significant is to happen. This likely means figuring out their own ROW, which could partially follow the highways.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by someone123

I don't think VIA is ever going to work in a semi-reasonable manner for the Maritimes nor will any sort of top-down federal entity work right. The feds probably would fund rail, but NS and NB will have to lead and come up with the plans if anything significant is to happen. This likely means figuring out their own ROW, which could partially follow the highways.

With a lot of these proposed train services it is unclear what problem the proposal is trying to solve other than the absence of a train.

I can sort of see the Northlander, the roads along much of the route are not great and there are limited flight options at significant cost. You could see how the train would be competitive with other offerings and maybe boost tourism.

In the maritimes it is hard to see that. The roads are good, it is an easy drive, etc.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

What's the point of two trains a day that would be slower than driving? At that point, the better value is 4-6x buses per day. More frequencies. Low cost.

Trains for the sake of trains is a pointless waste of taxpayer money. If you can't build a better service than what buses could provide, don't bother. Just stick with buses.

But trains!

But let’s rehash here for optimal mode of transport. There is two axes that matter: population and distance.

This is a rough guide:

<500 km between smaller towns and larger centre: bus
<500 km between medium-sized city and larger metro: higher frequency bus/regular speed rail
500-1000 km between major metros: high speed rail
>1000 km between large cities: airplane

Anything outside of those parameters generally requires an increasing subsidy or is iffy from a viability standpoint. A lot of <500km demand is annihilated by private automobile, as is a lot of demand from smaller places for the same reason.

My inner cynic says the Ford government will introduce the Northlander to Timmins for a bit, watch it flop (because most will still either drive/fly) and then the next government will use the rolling stock for GO.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by acottawa

With a lot of these proposed train services it is unclear what problem the proposal is trying to solve other than the absence of a train.

I can sort of see the Northlander, the roads along much of the route are not great and there are limited flight options at significant cost. You could see how the train would be competitive with other offerings and maybe boost tourism.

In the maritimes it is hard to see that. The roads are good, it is an easy drive, etc.

Well there is a train now in the Maritimes, it is just awful.

I think the issues are: highway is 110 km/h max, congestion is getting worse around Halifax and there probably is no way to deal with this for mixed car/bus traffic, and there is often bad weather particularly around the Cobequid Pass (fog nearly year-round, snow and ice probably 6 months a year around the worst areas). It's probably one of the least reliable non-alpine highways for weather. Trains are also nicer to spend time on for remote work and so on.

The 102 (or old trunk 2 and mainline) route is quite good and has a bunch of suburbs, small towns, and the airport on it. Then the other regional routes can connect to this route.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by acottawa

With a lot of these proposed train services it is unclear what problem the proposal is trying to solve other than the absence of a train.

I can sort of see the Northlander, the roads along much of the route are not great and there are limited flight options at significant cost. You could see how the train would be competitive with other offerings and maybe boost tourism.

In the maritimes it is hard to see that. The roads are good, it is an easy drive, etc.

Most people along the Northlander route south of Northbay likely won't use it. The have a 4 lane divided highway to Toronto that hardly sees road closures due to weather and accidents. North of North Bay is 2 lanes where eventually they will try the 2+1 to make it .. better. For some who has to deal with a doctor in Toronto and lives in Timmins, they have very few good options. So, if you already are going to be stuck in a car for 7-8 hours, a 10 hour train isn't horrible.

Originally Posted by thewave46

But trains!

A lot to unpack....

Originally Posted by thewave46

But let’s rehash here for optimal mode of transport. There is two axes that matter: population and distance.

This is a rough guide:

<500 km between smaller towns and larger centre: bus
<500 km between medium-sized city and larger metro: higher frequency bus/regular speed rail
500-1000 km between major metros: high speed rail
>1000 km between large cities: airplane

Anything outside of those parameters generally requires an increasing subsidy or is iffy from a viability standpoint. A lot of <500km demand is annihilated by private automobile, as is a lot of demand from smaller places for the same reason.

I hate the use of distance, because it really is not as clear cut as that.
I would say it is distance, time and type or road. Anything within a 4 hour drive, on a 4 lane divided highway would be something most people would not be against a bus or driving. Throw in a 2 lane road and it becomes more dangerous to a driver or bus rider. Make it longer, and you really play into the question of safety. There are unenforced laws that regular licensed drivers have a limit of hours a day. I think it is 10 hours.

So, using my metrics, if the Northlander is a success, the places I could see potentially successful is
SSM-Sudbury
Sudbury-North Bay
Sudbury- Toronto
And possibly Hearst -Timmins

Originally Posted by thewave46

My inner cynic says the Ford government will introduce the Northlander to Timmins for a bit, watch it flop (because most will still either drive/fly) and then the next government will use the rolling stock for GO.

Mine too.
Or maybe UP Express trains.
My expectations are that fr the first month it will be sold out. For the next year it will be full enough. After that, all bets are off.

The thing is the train is supposed to be delivered in 2026, which happens to be the next time a provincial election has to happen. Ford needs this to happen to help him wash our thoughts of a general strike and other things off our minds for him to win. I don't see the Liberals or NDP quashing this that quickly if Ford is out. My guess is it will run for at least 5 years before anything good or bad is done to it.