Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by josh_cat_eyes

The best response haha.

The more realistic scenario would be that Turks and Caicos flips the script and annexes Canada. Making it Turks and Caicos and Canada.

[mylesmalley]

With Charles in Charge, who knows!

[ivegotaname]

I've been watching German tv recently and had it dubbed English well there was a man in their parliament talking in front of everyone present when he mentioned an event is going to happen near end of this month that will dwarf 9/11 and will be never forgotten to anyone on this planet. I think he said Sept 26

To the discussion about New Brunswick we join america and Holt holds power for longer then McKenna

[mylesmalley]

Not to say that something won't happen on that date... who knows but no country has a monopoly on kooks, either. Great_Disappointment. 2012 phenomenon List of dates predicted or apocalyptic events

For what it's worth, I put the odds of the United States collapsing far higher than Canada falling apart over the next twenty years.

Even so, if New Brunswick were to find itself cast off into the wind, I really doubt joining the United States would be beneficial to anybody. We're largely seen as a backwater in our own country; I don't think we'd be given any more notice than Guam in theirs. None of our long-standing constitutional protections like official bilingualism or ten senate seats would stand. We'd go from having a little less than 5% of the MPs and Senators in Canada to... 1 Representative and 2 Senators in the States... not much over 0.5%. The Acadian population would be even more marginalized. The days of grand infrastructure projects are largely behind us... why would they invest in Saint John when Portland and Boston have more direct access to the Atlantic, etc...

[josh_cat_eyes]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

Not to say that something won't happen on that date... who knows but no country has a monopoly on kooks, either. Great_Disappointment. 2012 phenomenon List of dates predicted or apocalyptic events

For what it's worth, I put the odds of the United States collapsing far higher than Canada falling apart over the next twenty years.

Even so, if New Brunswick were to find itself cast off into the wind, I really doubt joining the United States would be beneficial to anybody. We're largely seen as a backwater in our own country; I don't think we'd be given any more notice than Guam in theirs. None of our long-standing constitutional protections like official bilingualism or ten senate seats would stand. We'd go from having a little less than 5% of the MPs and Senators in Canada to... 1 Representative and 2 Senators in the States... not much over 0.5%. The Acadian population would be even more marginalized. The days of grand infrastructure projects are largely behind us... why would they invest in Saint John when Portland and Boston have more direct access to the Atlantic, etc...

They’ll invest in Saint John because Irving told them to lol.

[ivegotaname]

I don't think all of Canada joins USA just the maritimes when Quebec goes and we are cut off from Canada because of it

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by josh_cat_eyes

The best response haha.

I'm down for getting French citizenship, sounds like a blast! Get some direct Moncton to Paris flights and we'll be feeling the influence of Chiac snowbirds on the south of France in no time. The French government's affection for nuclear power will immediately triple the reactors at Point Lepreau, then I can roll into Uptown Saint John in my Renault and get cheaper cell phone rates while I'm at it.

[MonctonRad]

Higgs/Cardy - ouch!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/cardy-resigns-as-education-minister-1.6615083


BTW - I think Cardy is making some very good points regarding the style of Higgs leadership here. I was especially disturbed how he turfed the management of Horizon and the boards of both health care corporations after that ER death at the Chalmers in Fredericton. That was just a reflex policy spectacle designed to make it appear that Higgs was actually doing something, when the REAL result would be to make everything worse in the short term, and to further concentrate political control of the health care corporations in the Premier’s Office. Neither of these two things is good.

Cardy however can a little insufferable and imperious too. He thinks he is the smartest person in the room (he probably is). He wouldn’t be the greatest team player in cabinet.

I wonder if this is the first move in a campaign to ouster Higgs before the next election, with Cardy running as the heir apparent to replace him.

[PoscStudent]

Had there been much speculation before yesterday of Higgs retiring/resigning? He hasn’t been premier overly long but he’s no spring chick and not overly popular.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I wonder if this is the first move in a campaign to ouster Higgs before the next election, with Cardy running as the heir apparent to replace him.

Given that he stayed in caucus rather than leaving I would assume so.

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

Had there been much speculation before yesterday of Higgs retiring/resigning? He hasn’t been premier overly long but he’s no spring chick and not overly popular.

A decade ago I ran into Higgs at an event and he seemed tired even then - I can't imagine how he's doing these days. Cardy's letter points to what I assumed which is that Higgs is short on patience for views that aren't his own these days.

I think an election with leaders of Cardy, Holt, and Coon would be pretty compelling, but that would almost certainly require some sort of fracture in the PCs if it hasn't already happened.

[adamuptownsj]

Higgs is not getting forced out by a spurned cabinet minister. No PC is tying themselves to Cardy. From all I've heard he is not exactly a popular guy and has few friends in government or out of it. Liberals don't want him, Greens don't want him either. Red Tories like Green, Carr, and Anderson-Mason are not going to follow him off a cliff to assuage his ego just because they'd rather have a less-blue Premier. Higgs probably won't go for another term in 2024 anyway, given his age, but the chances of him walking away after a nearly $800M surplus are nil.

A mid-term cabinet shuffle with a sour-grapes newly-minted backbencher is not a sign of impending collapse of government. There's been people like this in the NB PCs before (Tanker Malley, Stiles and McAlpine, Bev Harrison) and none have ever successfully swung it.

I'm no fan of any of these people, but Cardy is not some beloved folk hero or party stalwart. He has his own weird brand, while Higgs has other 28 MLAs and two years left to govern. I presume they boot him, and the next big legislative event of note in NB will be three very Liberal vacant seats returning Liberals, including Holt, to the Assembly.

Objectively, picking up Austin and Conroy from the PA, Dawson holding Stewart's seat, and Savoie flipping Harris' seat leaves Higgs in a very strong position. 29 PC-16 (13 for a bit, soon) Liberal-3 Green-Cardy is not the kind of legislature that implodes in coups.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Given that he stayed in caucus rather than leaving I would assume so.


A decade ago I ran into Higgs at an event and he seemed tired even then - I can't imagine how he's doing these days. Cardy's letter points to what I assumed which is that Higgs is short on patience for views that aren't his own these days.

I think an election with leaders of Cardy, Holt, and Coon would be pretty compelling, but that would almost certainly require some sort of fracture in the PCs if it hasn't already happened.

The PCs are kicking Cardy out. There will be no coup. A race with these three leaders would see a gigantic leap in PA voting as Cardy is not a draw for the median PC member or voter. I mean, the guy calls himself a 'neoliberal' on twitter.

The Liberals and Greens both preemptively said no thanks, the NDP and Alliance don't want him for opposing reasons. So that leaves him with, what exactly? Does KISS still exist? Will he start his own centrist vanity provincial party? Run federally or something? He is involved with the 'Centre Ice' red tory group so that could plausibly happen.

And remember, Cardy is a politician too. He was indeed getting shuffled out so it was a real 'you can't fire me, I quit' situation. I would hesitate before taking everything he says as gospel. Higgs is absolutely an abrasive personality, but Cardy definitely is too.

[L'homard]

Could not agree more with Adam.
Cardy is his own party, a party of one.
His ego won't be stroked enough until he is leader of one or the other mainstream political parties - even HE can't seem to decide which one. But it's irrelevant anyway, as he wrongly equates being an arsehole with being a leader. He has fooled no one but himself.
Voters aren't falling for it.
I wish him well in his future outside of the world of politics.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by L'homard

Could not agree more with Adam.
Cardy is his own party, a party of one.
His ego won't be stroked enough until he is leader of one or the other mainstream political parties - even HE can't seem to decide which one. But it's irrelevant anyway, as he wrongly equates being an arsehole with being a leader. He has fooled no one but himself.
Voters aren't falling for it.
I wish him well in his future outside of the world of politics.

I honestly don't. He's melting down on twitter and seems to have a severe martyr complex. Gallivanting around Europe and freaking out at China in a private capacity are absolutely insane things for a government minister to be doing. He spent less time thinking about education than he did about Cardy. Higgs should have fired him the day he won the Miramichi byelections as a show of strength.

Again, I don't particularly care for Higgs. But Cardy is not going to lead a charge against him from any quarter of the PCs. Holt and Coon were also wise to stay out of his mess and wait, so credit to them. The moderate set that likely has some beef with Higgs will wait him out, or see if has a big misstep, but the vast majority of the caucus is with him, despite what people are wishcasting. Even if Higgs was removed, the party would certainly not replace him with Cardy or Green or Mason. The chiefs may have made a big political error by siding with Cardy hours before he became irrelevant, too.

But despite the Cardy thing and healthcare/inflation, which are a mess everywhere in the western world right now, Higgs had a decent 2022. Covid basically wrapped up as a major public concern and tourism is returning, he ate the Alliance, held a seat and flipped a seat in byelections, and ran a fat surplus. I doubt the current drama or Holt will move the needle in enough Anglo ridings to surpass horrendous vote distribution if an election happened next month (which it won't).

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

I honestly don't. He's melting down on twitter and seems to have a severe martyr complex. Gallivanting around Europe and freaking out at China in a private capacity are absolutely insane things for a government minister to be doing. He spent less time thinking about education than he did about Cardy. Higgs should have fired him the day he won the Miramichi byelections as a show of strength.

Again, I don't particularly care for Higgs. But Cardy is not going to lead a charge against him from any quarter of the PCs. Holt and Coon were also wise to stay out of his mess and wait, so credit to them. The moderate set that likely has some beef with Higgs will wait him out, or see if has a big misstep, but the vast majority of the caucus is with him, despite what people are wishcasting. Even if Higgs was removed, the party would certainly not replace him with Cardy or Green or Mason. The chiefs may have made a big political error by siding with Cardy hours before he became irrelevant, too.

But despite the Cardy thing and healthcare/inflation, which are a mess everywhere in the western world right now, Higgs had a decent 2022. Covid basically wrapped up as a major public concern and tourism is returning, he ate the Alliance, held a seat and flipped a seat in byelections, and ran a fat surplus. I doubt the current drama or Holt will move the needle in enough Anglo ridings to surpass horrendous vote distribution if an election happened next month (which it won't).

Cardy already had a poor reputation, and was seem as a flip-flopper by many after leaving the NDP. As much as the CBC wants this to be a story (as they barely are mentioning the Liberals that are dropping like flies) most don't care much about what Cardy says or does. He is not going to be the reason someone changes their vote.

Sadly the Libs are seen (and in reality, are) too in bed with the SANB and will struggle to win any majority Anglo ridings until that changes. The Conservatives just need to not make too many changes that would affect the general populous and they can walk to another win. With the PANB basically dead there will be even less vote splitting on the right.

[ivegotaname]

Anyone here have a idea when CANZUK gets approved before Trudeau leaves office or will that sit on a shelf for another pm to sign the deal with Australia New Zealand UK for free movement of people and goods trade for all 4 countries I listed. Should we get our local municipality to get on board with this? The people who decide to move Canada and I personally know 6 peeps that want too. It could seriously fix our low worker shortage in hospitals thousands will be at our doorstep hopefully we say come on in

[adamuptownsj]

New Brunswick riding boundaries are out. Only a few dramatic changes. Partisan comments reflect a 'normal' election cycle.

North Shore: minor edits only to all 8 seats. Remains entirely safe Liberal

Upper River Valley: I don't think they changed it much at all. 3-2 Liberal/PC

Miramichi: completely rejiggered. The old urban Miramichi seat, Conroy's, becomes Miramichi East, the southern rural seat migrates inland and remains PC as Miramichi West, and the northern seat loses its massive rural territory and remains vaguely Liberal leaning.

Kent: more or less preserve Kent North and Kent South. Liberal/Green split.

Fredericton/central NB sees Oromocto, Carleton York, Fredericton Grand Lake, Fredericton York, and Fredericton North survive relatively unmolested. 4 PC and 1 competitive.

The remaining 3 districts south of the river see changes: Hanwell and New Maryland are combined and should return a PC normally. Fredericton South is bisected into a Silverwood oriented district and a UNB to Lincoln district, this is basically the continuation of the current Fredericton West-Hanwell and Fredericton South seats respectively. Both should be highly competitive; interestingly Holt lives in the western seat and Coon in the much less Green eastern seat. Jeff Carr likely runs in the New Maryland-Hanwell seat. Cardy either runs there out of spite, or likely against Holt in the new Fredericton West seat, if he bothers.

So Freddy goes from 6 PC-1 G-1 competitive to 5 PC and 3 competitive (the 3 urban seats).

Saint John/Charlotte/Kings see almost no changes other than tweaks for population. Remains 10 PC-1 competitive (Harbour). Fortunately they fixed the previous commission's impossible-to-drive-through districts by trading South Bay for Lorneville and putting Red Head with SJ East. For some reason Sussex has an arm that goes all the way to Moncton for no partisan effect.

Moncton area sees some changes worth breaking down more.

Albert County keeps its two normal seats, both PC. As does Shediac, both Liberal (one is shared with Dieppe).

Dieppe loses its portions of Moncton East territory and adds Memramcook. This creates a very Green Anglo seat along the border anchored by Sackville and a very red French seat.

Moncton East shrinks below the TCH due to growth and takes parts from the old Dieppe ridings. Northwest also shrinks between Wheeler and TCH. South and Centre do not change too much. Moncton Southwest vanishes as Sussex and Gagetown needed population and reappears running from Harrisville to... Bouctouche. It cannot be driven across without entering a different seat. I presume this is Liberal leaning.

So in total Moncton has a green/red seat become greener, and a PC leaning seat is replaced with a Liberal leaning one.

The TCH Gagetown to Moncton riding survives and remains very PC. Didn't know what region to pair it with.

All in all a good map. Only WTF decisions are the three ridings 'cracking' Moncton, which should be a Gagetown-Sussex riding and two drawn more coherently in western Westmoreland and northern Moncton proper/Maple Hills, respectively.

Partisan changes are limited. Conroy, Austin, Arseneault and Mitton are all winners. Holt has a clear place to run in and possibly win. Coon and Cardy get skunked and the Moncton PCs will have to play musical chairs. Overall it's -1 Green, -2 PC, and +3 competitive, from a 'generic election' perspective.

[adamuptownsj]

To summarize my post above, no seats really vanish except for Moncton Southwest, and it is replaced by Champdoré-Moncton Irishtown-Lakeville as all the Moncton seats contract. Everything else just expands or contracts. Even the new Fredericton South-Silverwood seat is basically just Fredericton West-Hanwell, less Hanwell.

My only big gripes are said new Moncton seat, Gagetown-Maple Hills, and Sussex-Three Rivers. These should all be reconfigured (which could require tweaks to many surrounding ridings).

Gagetown/Sussex is not an ideal combo but they a better pair than either community and exurban Moncton. Petitcodiac/Maple Hills (old Moncton Parish)/Salisbury is another reasonable COI. Split these E/W instead of N/S.

The Champdoré seat is a way bigger mess. It should absolutely not run up into Kent County and south of the TCH at the same time. Saint Antoine to Harrisville is a wild seat. You can't even drive from the Moncton portion to the Kent portion without going offroad!

[MonctonRad]

I dislike ersatz seats where different portions of the same riding have no community of interest. Sometimes this is unavoidable, but should be avoided if at all possible.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I dislike ersatz seats where different portions of the same riding have no community of interest. Sometimes this is unavoidable, but should be avoided if at all possible.

Yeah, that's why these three are so weird. Especially around the Salisbury and Harrisville areas. I redrew it and you can basically draw a 'Greater Sussex' seat and a Gagetown to Salisbury seat that's at least a 'TCH community'.

Then take all of what's currently Moncton Parish and Moncton proper north of the TCH to replace the Champdore seat. Shuffle the Dieppe/Shediac and Kent South seats around a bit for population.

You end up with 5 seats in Moncton entirely, 1 in Dieppe entirely, 2 sharing Shediac, and the requested Dieppe/Memramcook seat. How you draw those 5 Moncton seats is not worth getting into, but Northwest, Centre, South, and East all survive more or less, and a new seat appears between Centre and East.

https://imgur.com/a/t5Uls5s

Thoughts?