Calgary International Airport II

[Johnny Aussie]

^
Never say never but this has been a long time coming
Westjet’s continuing turning the screws on AC at YYC.
Only so large a market to be able to handle the pressures.
I wouldn’t pay much attention to next winter’s scheds this early anyway way too off in the distance
These cuts definitely ends YYC’s status as a hub for AC - definitely moves into focus city status as AC focusses only on some very core routes based on O&D.
One daily to BC regional centres (YLW) and only 7 daily within AB is quite telling - even if winter scheds.
As Westjet continues to grow at YYC it’s only going to get harder for others

Does this leave only 10 domestic destinations from YYC?
YVR YLW YEG YMM YQU YWG YOW YYZ YUL YHZ

[Calfan12]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

This looks like to me like they're closing their Jazz base at YYC? There was (and I think still is) a AC Express crew and pilot base here. But most, if not all of those, are Express operations, and closing all of them of once suggests to me the base is closing.

SFO looks like UA will pick up with 2x E175s (but interestingly, YEG keeps a CR9 on AC).

YYJ, YQR and YXE are baffling to me because in summer, those three destinations have enough O&D alone to run Express aircraft.

Then again, losing PHX was also baffling to me unless WS is just killing them on that route.

With only 3x trans-border and LAX cancelled again this winter, I wouldn't bet we keep 2x daily LAX on 7M8 this summer. With operations like that you wonder if they'll just cancel all trans-border out of YYC altogether. This makes me worried for LHR and FRA too because surely there was some feed on the regional flights?

This is definitely not COVID related recovery - last summer they ran tons of CR900 flights and replaced a lot of DH4 flying with CR9s to places like YQR, YXE and YYJ.

Good points! Agree

Regarding Victoria YYJ, Regina YQR, Saskatoon YXE even without Air Canada (AC)

There's still good 4 ways to get from YYC to YYJ on WestJet, Flair, Lynx or take Rider Express Bus route that does YYC- Vancouver YVR 7 days a week & once in YVR connect onto BC Ferries to YYJ, Nanaimo YCD,Comox YQQ or other areas on Vancouver Island.

From YYC to YQR & YXE there's still WestJet or take the Rider Express bus routes from Alberta to YQR/ YXE (via Edmonton YEG) as YEG is currently the main connecting bus point into Saskatchewan & also Manitoba,since Greyhound ended service in Western Canada in 2018 .

While YYC is currently the main bus connecting point from Western Canada into BC 7 days a week.

Plus since Greyhound ended all bus service within Canada in 2021.
3 Bus companies like Rider Express, Ebus & also Red Arrow having been adding new routes across Canada lately & still are.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

UA has IAH / SFO covered for the summer months, both 2x daily.

One thing to remember though, is that AC/UA cannot share revenue on YYC-IAH/SFO. Those are 2 of the 14 carve-out markets the Competition Bureau identified way back when, and in their last earnings call, AC basically confirmed those carve-outs are still there. So the best AC can do is codeshare with UA on those routes.

This move by AC was a long time coming. YYC is too small of a market to sustain 2 hub carriers +ULCC competition. Something had to give.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

SFO looks like UA will pick up with 2x E175s (but interestingly, YEG keeps a CR9 on AC).

It's not that surprising. Little to no competition on YEG-SFO. Only other carrier is Flair with 2x weekly service at the moment.

Whereas at YYC, they were competing with UA (read above) and WS on the route.

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by Calfan12

Good points! Agree

Regarding Victoria YYJ, Regina YQR, Saskatoon YXE even without Air Canada (AC)

YYJ is annoying but at least logical to route via YVR.

But realistically, folks looking to get to SK who wanted to fly aren't taking the bus. Air Canada is ceding the regional routes to WestJet:

(Winter schedule)
YYC-YYJ 4x daily mainline
YYC-YQR 4x daily Encore 1x daily mainline
YYC-YXE 4x daily Encore 1x daily mainline
YYC-YCD 2x daily Encore
YYC-YKA 3x daily Encore

These frequencies will only get bigger in summer particularly as WestJet draws down the DH4 fleet in the east. If you want regional flying ex-YYC in Western Canada, you're flying WestJet.

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

One thing to remember though, is that AC/UA cannot share revenue on YYC-IAH/SFO. Those are 2 of the 14 carve-out markets the Competition Bureau identified way back when, and in their last earnings call, AC basically confirmed those carve-outs are still there. So the best AC can do is codeshare with UA on those routes.

This move by AC was a long time coming. YYC is too small of a market to sustain 2 hub carriers +ULCC competition. Something had to give.

It 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 but it's true. At least WS starts a lot of new destinations we'd never have otherwise. Financially it doesn't make much sense for AC to try to hold out in YYC when YYZ and YUL and YVR have much more potential.

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

YYJ is annoying but at least logical to route via YVR.

But realistically, folks looking to get to SK who wanted to fly aren't taking the bus. Air Canada is ceding the regional routes to WestJet:

(Winter schedule)
YYC-YYJ 4x daily mainline
YYC-YQR 4x daily Encore 1x daily mainline
YYC-YXE 4x daily Encore 1x daily mainline
YYC-YCD 2x daily Encore
YYC-YKA 3x daily Encore

These frequencies will only get bigger in summer particularly as WestJet draws down the DH4 fleet in the east. If you want regional flying ex-YYC in Western Canada, you're flying WestJet.

Yeah, I'm expecting WS to beef up their regional frequencies quite a bit (at least back to pre pandemic frequencies for sure). I would assume these drawbacks have to do with operational challenges and also primarily WS clearly signalling its focus on YYC, since ULCC's don't fly to any of these cities except YYJ? But I wonder why AC kept YLW.

Now that YCG is also not returning I wonder if WS link starts YCG or maybe the nearby YZZ.

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

I've heard Jazz has had operational challenges, which probably played into those routes being cut.

100% true. The Jazz operation has been running on a razor's edge for years here. The planes are constantly broken and it's a nasty chain of cascading tailswaps trying to find a functioning aircraft to operate flights. The only silver lining is that Jazz can perhaps finally have a cohesive operation that isn't stretched to its limit.

[Johnny Aussie]

Jazz ops looks like this after 15 Jan

13 daily - 8 daily DH4s and 5 daily CR9s

YEG - 4 daily DH4s
YVR - 3 daily CR9s (in addition to the mainline flights)
YWG - 2 daily CR9s (no mainline flights)
YMM - 2 daily DH4s
YQU - 1 daily DH4
YLW - 1 daily DH4

[Johnny Aussie]

AC also reducing LAS to 5 weekly after 15 Jan

AC transborder ops this winter after 15 Jan:

Daily EWR on 223s
5x weekly LAS on 7M8s
3x weekly OGG on 7M8s

No Star Alliance to SFO now

Next summer current AC ops have dropped below 50 daily to only 48 (36 mainline and 12 Express) 26 of the mainline are to the three AC hubs

Westjet is wiping the floor with AC

[Calfan12]

Originally Posted by hehehe

It 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 but it's true. At least WS starts a lot of new destinations we'd never have otherwise. Financially it doesn't make much sense for AC to try to hold out in YYC when YYZ and YUL and YVR have much more potential.

Yeah, I'm expecting WS to beef up their regional frequencies quite a bit (at least back to pre pandemic frequencies for sure). I would assume these drawbacks have to do with operational challenges and also primarily WS clearly signalling its focus on YYC, since ULCC's don't fly to any of these cities except YYJ? But I wonder why AC kept YLW.

Now that YCG is also not returning I wonder if WS link starts YCG or maybe the nearby YZZ.

Kelowna YLW in BC is 1 of most popular area's for Albertans. Maybe thats why AC kept YLW.

Kelowna Tourism numbers had 12.5 per cent of the people came from Alberta in 2021 for a trip/visit in YLW area which is not too bad,considering during pandemic times.

https://www.kelownacapnews.com/news/strong-performance-expected-for-2022-tourism-in-kelowna/

[LO 044]

I feel that YYC is simply getting a feel as to what YEG has been experiencing over the last 10 years from AC although I don't believe YEG ever had the options and/or frequency on AC that YYC has had. Bottom line is that AC simply has better (more profitable) routes to serve than the ones being cut to/from YYC.

YCD/YYJ connects via YVR.
YXE/YQR connects via YUL/YYZ.
YQY/YCG/YMM/YKA are too small (relatively to anything in Ontario let's say) to care about so to speak.

The above is completely logical. Acey has already mentioned that YYC-FRA and YYC-LHR are money makers and those flights don't need the few odd people from Grande Prairie or Castlegar to connect to make those flights profitable. Who's kidding who, the YYC-FRA/LHR flights must be able to stand on their own without any connections. YYC-FRA departs at 17:40 and YYC-LHR departs at 18:20. The YEG-YYC flight comes into YYC at 13:39 (so a 4 to 5 hr layover?) and the next flight comes in at 18:15. So obviously even the connections from YEG aren't important enough for those two international flights.

The YEG connections surprise me a bit but as I said on the YEG thread, when I book YEG-Europe, AC pushes me into connecting at YVR then YYZ/YUL. YYC is always more expensive or requires more Aeroplan points and enough so for me not to pick the connection via YYC. With a 4hr to 5hr layover at YYC, I would definitely pass on this connection.

I feel that it will be a battle between Flair, Lynx and WestJet for the low hanging fruit of VFR within Canada at least in Western Canada. Multiple sources will tell you that about 1/3 of the population of Canada resides in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver areas and these cities are home to much of the business community and obviously draw many international visitors. It isn't much of a surprise that AC is deciding to focus on these three cities almost completely.

[hollywoodcory]

WS adding EDI/BCN

BCN starts May 6 runs 3x weekly
EDI starts May 17 runs 3x weekly

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by LO 044

I feel that YYC is simply getting a feel as to what YEG has been experiencing over the last 10 years from AC although I don't believe YEG ever had the options and/or frequency on AC that YYC has had. Bottom line is that AC simply has better (more profitable) routes to serve than the ones being cut to/from YYC.

YCD/YYJ connects via YVR.
YXE/YQR connects via YUL/YYZ.
YQY/YCG/YMM/YKA are too small (relatively to anything in Ontario let's say) to care about so to speak.

The above is completely logical. Acey has already mentioned that YYC-FRA and YYC-LHR are money makers and those flights don't need the few odd people from Grande Prairie or Castlegar to connect to make those flights profitable. Who's kidding who, the YYC-FRA/LHR flights must be able to stand on their own without any connections. YYC-FRA departs at 17:40 and YYC-LHR departs at 18:20. The YEG-YYC flight comes into YYC at 13:39 (so a 4 to 5 hr layover?) and the next flight comes in at 18:15. So obviously even the connections from YEG aren't important enough for those two international flights.

The YEG connections surprise me a bit but as I said on the YEG thread, when I book YEG-Europe, AC pushes me into connecting at YVR then YYZ/YUL. YYC is always more expensive or requires more Aeroplan points and enough so for me not to pick the connection via YYC. With a 4hr to 5hr layover at YYC, I would definitely pass on this connection.

I feel that it will be a battle between Flair, Lynx and WestJet for the low hanging fruit of VFR within Canada at least in Western Canada. Multiple sources will tell you that about 1/3 of the population of Canada resides in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver areas and these cities are home to much of the business community and obviously draw many international visitors. It isn't much of a surprise that AC is deciding to focus on these three cities almost completely.

It is interesting considering how strong of a business market Calgary is, but Jazz is hurting but still surprised Saskatoon and Regina are gone. Regionally Calgary is really important for both of those cities.

AC is and WestJet are doing the same thing, going back to their stronger hubs. WestJet leaving the east in a big way, and AC shrinking massively in the prairies. Ottawa out east is also seeing the effects of AC going back it its hubs.

Until business travel comes back to pre covid numbers I guess this should all be expected.
For Comparison, AC will be doing about:
Calgary: 48 flights a day
Ottawa: 34 flights a day
Halifax: 27 flights a day
Edmonton: 28 flights a day

Compared to the big 3:
Toronto: 120 a day
Vancouver: 74 a day
Montreal: 70 flights a day

Outside of the Calgary LHR/FRA flights, all widebodies are in the big 3 now for AC.

[hollywoodcory]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

WS adding EDI/BCN

BCN starts May 6 runs 3x weekly
EDI starts May 17 runs 3x weekly

Theres one more, which will get a bit more attention:
NRT!

effective April 30th:
WS080 YYC1855 – 2000+1NRT 789 357
WS081 NRT2200 – 1600YYC 789 146

You know some dude over at WS HQ is frantically on the phone trying to re-acquire the Dreamliners they deferred when one breaks in July and they have to nuke half the sked.

YYC-BCN/EDI/NRT/LGW/LHR/CDG/FCO/DUB and YVR-LGW with 7 frames... my popcorn is COOKING.

Originally Posted by LO 044

I feel that YYC is simply getting a feel as to what YEG has been experiencing over the last 10 years from AC although I don't believe YEG ever had the options and/or frequency on AC that YYC has had. Bottom line is that AC simply has better (more profitable) routes to serve than the ones being cut to/from YYC.

YYC will be too busy celebrating new Japan, Scotland and Spain service all on the same day to really care.

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

Theres one more, which will get a bit more attention:
NRT!

effective April 30th:
WS080 YYC1855 – 2000+1NRT 789 357
WS081 NRT2200 – 1600YYC 789 146

I am actually surprised its not Dubai.
Really though this will be a very tight summer sched with the dreamliners.

[YYCFlier]

NRT or ICN would be the logical markets, but one 789 goes mechanical and they're screwed. Would make more sense to keep one 789 on domestic ops as a spare!

[YYCFlier]

Alexis says: Starting with the expansion of our intercontinental routes, future announcements will focus on domestic and North American additions that will bring even more affordable travel options to our guests in the new year

Does this mean more NA increases in the new year?

[People_talking]

AMS appears to be gone after the spring? that'll help them with scheduling, but it'll still be tight. I wonder if they acquire any more frames, they may need them especially if they want to expand TC out of YYC further.

[casper]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

Theres one more, which will get a bit more attention:
NRT!

effective April 30th:
WS080 YYC1855 – 2000+1NRT 789 357
WS081 NRT2200 – 1600YYC 789 146

I have always flow through Narita during the day time. Are there are a lot of flights after 9:00 pm to connect onto?

Surprised they are not timed for a mid-day arrival.