General Phoenix Metro Discussion Thread

[Obadno]

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2022/11/30/kore-power-arizona-phoenix-buckeye.html

Kore Power Factory back in business! Now for LG to come through, If we want solar and wind to work Battery is absolutely essential.

[xymox]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Solar is so dumb just build more Nuclear

Unfortunately regulatory hurdles would make building 1GW of solar quicker than nuclear. Palo Verde is 3.3GW - so this will add 1/3 the generation power of Palo Verde to the state in relatively quick order. It'd probably take 20 years (based on the GA plant that still isn't open) to get another reactor or two at PV. Yeah it's going to eat up land, but done in the right spot (i.e. farms that are giving up water rights due to cutbacks) I'd say it's a nice tradeoff. Remember, AZ is a net EXPORTER of electricity.

That being said, I would like to see more of the 'safe' nuclear (i.e. Thorium reactors) built at PV to enhance our power portfolio. It'll just take a while.

[ASU Diablo]

https://www.macrumors.com/2022/12/01/tsmc-arizona-4nm-chips-2024/

TSMC's $12 billion chip plant currently under construction in Arizona will begin producing 4-nanometer chips as soon as it opens in 2024 thanks to urging from Apple and other companies, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman.

The plant had originally been planned to start with production of 5-nanometer chips, but with Apple and other companies increasingly looking to source components from the United States, TSMC has upgraded its plans so the facility will be able to supply more cutting-edge chips.

TSMC previously said it would make 20,000 wafers per month at the Arizona facility, although production may increase from those original plans, the people said. Apple will use about a third of the output as production gets underway.

Apple and other major tech companies rely on TSMC for their chipmaking needs, and the change means they'll be able to get more of their processors from the US. Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook has previously told employees that his company plans to source chips from the Arizona plant. The new plans are scheduled to be announced in Phoenix next Tuesday with President Joe Biden, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, and Apple CEO Tim Cook expected to be in attendance, along with AMD CEO Lisa Su and Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang.

In addition to the 4-nanometer production facility, TSMC will reportedly officially announce plans for a second phase involving an adjacent facility that will produce even more advanced 3-nanometer chips, a development that was revealed last week by TSMC founder Morris Chang.

Apple's latest chips are manufactured on a 5-nanometer process, and moving to more advanced processes should result in significant improvements in performance and power efficiency. Apple has been rumored to be using 4nm and 3nm processes for some of its upcoming M-series and A-series chips for use in Macs, iPads, iPhones, and other products.

[Obadno]

This is very good, people have been warning about China being unstable for years long before covid and apple actively chose to double down on Chinese manufacturing. Now they are about to get their asses kicked on their current iPhone model due to shipping costs and political unrest.

Much like Japan before them China has been a boogey man with no real legs to stand on, they can only do what they do with overt American support, money, material and management to be a low cost manufacturer but their wages have risen so fast they have already priced themselves out of the type of industry that is their bread and butter and they don't have a domestic middle class with enough per capita income to engine their own growth like we have in North America between the USA and Mexico.

Some people predicting a total Chinese implosion I think are fooling themselves, China does now have a middle class, but they are never going to be some sort of world power in our lifetimes.

[MiEncanto]

If I were in the business, I'd be spec building custom homes in carefree, cave creek, and the Lake Pleasant area. There's going to be a lot of high wealth people who want to live near TSMC and there are not enough homes for them at present.

[xymox]

Originally Posted by MiEncanto

If I were in the business, I'd be spec building custom homes in carefree, cave creek, and the Lake Pleasant area. There's going to be a lot of high wealth people who want to live near TSMC and there are not enough homes for them at present.

So much of the land that's up there is state land right now. So it all needs to go to auction first. Otherwise - check out the home prices in Vistancia and elsewhere in north Peoria - they reflect the supply/demand situation right now. Unfortunately new builds in Vistancia are tiny CA sized-lots with $800k homes on them.

[MiEncanto]

Originally Posted by xymox

So much of the land that's up there is state land right now. So it all needs to go to auction first. Otherwise - check out the home prices in Vistancia and elsewhere in north Peoria - they reflect the supply/demand situation right now. Unfortunately new builds in Vistancia are tiny CA sized-lots with $800k homes on them.

Yep and before it's auctioned, it has to go through an initial design process by a developer. They don't just sell it. The State will increase it's value first by having someone else do all the prep work first- that company usually wins the auction because they know it so well. I'm no expert on this; it's all second hand. But I do know developers really complain about how long the whole process takes and how reluctant State Land is to sell land, which I think is their job.

[xymox]

Originally Posted by MiEncanto

Yep and before it's auctioned, it has to go through an initial design process by a developer. They don't just sell it. The State will increase it's value first by having someone else do all the prep work first- that company usually wins the auction because they know it so well. I'm no expert on this; it's all second hand. But I do know developers really complain about how long the whole process takes and how reluctant State Land is to sell land, which I think is their job.

I wonder how long before this development spills over into Yavapai County - Black Canyon City and Yarnell/Peeple's Valley. Both are 'reasonable' commutes to TSMC and should provide more reasonably priced housing...

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by xymox

I wonder how long before this development spills over into Yavapai County - Black Canyon City and Yarnell/Peeple's Valley. Both are 'reasonable' commutes to TSMC and should provide more reasonably priced housing...

Peoria has already spilled over into Yavapai. That city has annexed land along the north shore of Lake Pleasant, on the far side of the Maricopa County boundary. It's largely an uninhabited area now, but I assume Peoria ingested that territory with the idea that the southernmost reaches of Yavapai could eventually become part of a suburban continuum with the northernmost reaches of Maricopa.

[combusean]

The 2040 planning maps don't agree with that assessment ... I'm not quite sure why Peoria annexed Lake Pleasant, but it stops there.

page 18 of https://www.peoriaaz.gov/home/showpublisheddocument/23952/637503566345130000 has their planning area.

Surprise won't either.

https://content.civicplus.com/api/assets/05150f59-d7e6-4f1a-bbab-82cbc97f50bb?cache=1800, page 27 from https://surpriseaz.gov/254/General-Plan-2035

Wickenburg reaches a bit into Yavapai, but not much.

https://www.wickenburgaz.org/DocumentCenter/View/2274/General-Plan-Maps

Everything to the west and north is unincorporated making water delivery and thus suburban sprawl nearly impossible.

[CrestedSaguaro]

Originally Posted by combusean

I'm not quite sure why Peoria annexed Lake Pleasant, but it stops there.

My guess is too claim a large tourist destination within city limits.

[xymox]

Originally Posted by CrestedSaguaro

My guess is too claim a large tourist destination within city limits.

Yes, the city annexed all the area around the lake - including into Yavapai county - back in the 90s when the new dam for the lake was being built. For that very reason. (page 1-10 of the 2040 general plan shows the planning area and city limits are in Yavapai county) I recall seeing at one of the census breakdowns for Yavapai county that there were in fact people living in that area - but I don't believe there are any developments back in that area after driving through there once before years ago.

There have been a lot of development proposals around the lake - but none of them have ever come to fruition. Vistancia and Mystic (formerly Lake Pleasant Heights) being the closest developments to the lake itself.

[xymox]

The official announced of the second phase:

https://azbigmedia.com/business/tsmc-will-add-2nd-phoenix-facility-increase-investment-to-40b/

[PHX31]

Originally Posted by xymox

The official announced of the second phase:

https://azbigmedia.com/business/tsmc-will-add-2nd-phoenix-facility-increase-investment-to-40b/

I'm still trying to wrap my head around how this will affect the North Phoenix area. There has already been major growth in my vicinity in the past 25 years (I grew up in far north phoenix, moved away for college/young adulthood, and I'm now back). I think the long-term plans of the City of Peoria (connections to and growth along the 303) may actually come to fruition which I thought was impossible. Then the area from Norterra north to Carefree Hwy is going to explode. It already kind of is, but it's going to be unrecognizable in 10 years.

I'm partially looking forward to it. But also, kind of not. The pluses and minuses are what I'm not fully grasping yet.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by PHX31

I'm still trying to wrap my head around how this will affect the North Phoenix area. There has already been major growth in my vicinity in the past 25 years (I grew up in far north phoenix, moved away for college/young adulthood, and I'm now back). I think the long-term plans of the City of Peoria (connections to and growth along the 303) may actually come to fruition which I thought was impossible. Then the area from Norterra north to Carefree Hwy is going to explode. It already kind of is, but it's going to be unrecognizable in 10 years.

I'm partially looking forward to it. But also, kind of not. The pluses and minuses are what I'm not fully grasping yet.

Its not just these plants, its the follow on impacts for the entire supply chain. And Long term the expertise that is gained at TSMC will lead to home grown company spin offs and competitors.

An absolute game changer for the city and state. For example: https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2022/12/06/phoenix-verde-clean-tsmc-arizona.html

Just today, the cleaning contract for TSMC alone is enough to produce an entire specialty cleaning company, We have chemical manufacturers, packaging specialists, Specialty transport, Rare earth metal suppliers, even branches of Asian banks all just to support TSMC all just IN ANTICPATION not even what the market demands as the fabs get up and running.

[PHX31]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Its not just these plants, its the follow on impacts for the entire supply chain. And Long term the expertise that is gained at TSMC will lead to home grown company spin offs and competitors.

An absolute game changer for the city and state.

Yeah, those are big picture positives. I'm also trying to think about the positives and negatives more short term and specifically to the area.

[combusean]

It really wouldn't surprise me if Apple commits to an iPhone or other significant device plant in the US within the next 5 - 10 years given the nightmares they've had with FoxConn in China. My guess is it'd be near Williams Gateway Airport as it's a way for them to ship phones out and is near an existing site.

[Buckeye Native 001]

Apple has some sort of compound out near there already in Mesa. I forget if its for chip manufacturing or what, but that area would make sense since they're already there and IWA is close by.

[ASU Diablo]

Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001

Apple has some sort of compound out near there already in Mesa. I forget if its for chip manufacturing or what, but that area would make sense since they're already there and IWA is close by.

It's a Data Center.

[xymox]

Originally Posted by ASU Diablo

It's a Data Center.

its a little more than that - its iCloud HQ. And they also build out every system they put in any datacenter at that site and ship it out from there.

I was expecting Tim Cook to announce and AZ based assembly site today...