Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport (YOW/CYOW) 1.0

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Zmonkey

It really can't be broken down to a customer, but could be used to attract and retain routes. Why did Flair move from Hamilton to Toronto? They were offered deep discounts on landing fees if they took on bad gates and poor landing times.

Sometimes you need to be creative and find ways to attract airlines. All of our rules push our system to be hubbed at bigger airports, you need something to counteract that. Ottawa hasn't even tried.

If this is the case, then maybe YOW can't afford it. They're already trying to work out their current deficit. This can't go on forever. With 3 airlines right now planning an aggressive expansion within Canada, competition needs to be taken into account at some point. I have no clue whether that point has come or yet to come because I do not work for an airline nor do I see the data they see but it will come eventually. What's the point of discounted landing fees if you can't even fill your plane? For example, I question whether it would be more profitable for yet another airline to add the already well served YYZ-SFO with discounted landing fees than from the non-existent YOW-SFO without the discount.

New routes are costly to begin, but YOW-SFO will happen in 1 year, 5 years, or 50 years from now. The question is when do other major well served airports get overly saturated enough where the currently growing carriers find it more profitable to start a new route from YOW as apposed to YUL or YYZ.

[Truenorth00]

You are thinking about this wrong. Why would another airline add YYZ-SFO over YOW-SFO?

Network. That's why.

The YYZ-SFO is not going to be targeted at origin-destination traffic exclusively. The YOW-SFO flight is substantially origin-destination. This gives YYZ a double advantage over YOW. Larger origin-destination market and a larger connecting market.

In all these discussions, I think a lot of you also forget how much larger the effective catchments for YYZ and YUL are. A metro area of 7M will simply generate substantially more traffic than a metro of 1.5M. And those numbers will mean lower unit costs, favouring hubbing there, further driving down unit costs. YOW is not unusual here. Most cities of our size aren't airline hubs unless an airline started in that city and they have substantial sunk cost. Most airlines try really hard to get a chunk of the largest markets first.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You are thinking about this wrong. Why would another airline add YYZ-SFO over YOW-SFO?

Network. That's why.

The YYZ-SFO is not going to be targeted at origin-destination traffic exclusively. The YOW-SFO flight is substantially origin-destination. This gives YYZ a double advantage over YOW. Larger origin-destination market and a larger connecting market.

In all these discussions, I think a lot of you also forget how much larger the effective catchments for YYZ and YUL are. A metro area of 7M will simply generate substantially more traffic than a metro of 1.5M. And those numbers will mean lower unit costs, favouring hubbing there, further driving down unit costs. YOW is not unusual here. Most cities of our size aren't airline hubs unless an airline started in that city and they have substantial sunk cost. Most airlines try really hard to get a chunk of the largest markets first.

Yes for sure but my post was more aimed at newer airlines and their expansion plans including the ULCC. When deciding to set up routes/network as part of an expansion (going from 0 to something) my questioning is competition that already exists at said airports like YUL or YYZ. I get that they have to start at locations with the most O&D but my question is when do they begin to say “this airport is oversaturated with 5 airlines serving the same route, we don’t know if our plane will fill up. Let’s move to YOW where we have more of a chance to fill it”. Or “YYZ are already a hub to 10000 carriers let’s choose YOW as our central hub”. 2 airlines made it happen for Calgary, a city of ever so slightly smaller size. I get they are more isolated but surely if 2 airlines are able to make it a global hub, one can make YOW a TB hub.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

In all these discussions, I think a lot of you also forget how much larger the effective catchments for YYZ and YUL are. A metro area of 7M will simply generate substantially more traffic than a metro of 1.5M. And those numbers will mean lower unit costs, favouring hubbing there, further driving down unit costs. YOW is not unusual here. Most cities of our size aren't airline hubs unless an airline started in that city and they have substantial sunk cost. Most airlines try really hard to get a chunk of the largest markets first.

Not arguing, as this is definitely not my area of expertise, but I've heard multiple times that Pearson is one of the most expensive airports in the world to operate from. Shouldn't that provide an opening for a smaller, less expensive airport like Ottawa?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

...., one can make YOW a TB hub.

YOW is terribly located to be a TB hub. Not much population east of us. Not much population north of us. Meanwhile all the transborder flows are southeast or southwest from the Quebec-Windsor Corridor. Relative to YOW, YYZ is better positioned going westbound and YUL is better positioned going eastbound.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by phil235

Not arguing, as this is definitely not my area of expertise, but I've heard multiple times that Pearson is one of the most expensive airports in the world to operate from. Shouldn't that provide an opening for a smaller, less expensive airport like Ottawa?

Profit = Revenue - Costs

Sure Pearson is expensive. But it's got the revenue generation for the carriers to justify being there.

Also, the talking point on YYZ being expensive is usually talking about relative to other large international airports. It's not considering unit costs. Pearson will have lower unit costs than Ottawa for a lot of carriers despite the higher operating costs, just because the market is larger. Consider that Air Canada flies 300-400 seat 777s and 787s from YYZ to SFO and LAX. Consider what those unit costs would be compared to Porter flying 140 seat E2-195s from Ottawa.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Profit = Revenue - Costs

Sure Pearson is expensive. But it's got the revenue generation for the carriers to justify being there.

Also, the talking point on YYZ being expensive is usually talking about relative to other large international airports. It's not considering unit costs. Pearson will have lower unit costs than Ottawa for a lot of carriers despite the higher operating costs, just because the market is larger. Consider that Air Canada flies 300-400 seat 777s and 787s from YYZ to SFO and LAX. Consider what those unit costs would be compared to Porter flying 140 seat E2-195s from Ottawa.

Got it, thanks for the explanation.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

YOW is terribly located to be a TB hub. Not much population east of us. Not much population north of us. Meanwhile all the transborder flows are southeast or southwest from the Quebec-Windsor Corridor. Relative to YOW, YYZ is better positioned going westbound and YUL is better positioned going eastbound.

I think you’re still talking about why these 2 airports are better positioned in general. I’m speaking about new airlines that come into market right now that let’s say want a TB hub or an expanding ULCC that doesn’t even operate as a hub-spoke. When is the breaking point when competition in YYZ and YUL becomes so intense (feed or no feed) that they will look to other airports such as YOW. For example, will Porter choose YUL as a TB hub over YOW? Or is competition too much. Keep in mind YUL was a disaster for Westjet due to the competition. YOW had more options with them as apposed to YUL, which gets me thinking, will we be the secondary hub for Porter or will it be YUL just because YUL is larger with more O&D traffic.

[Truenorth00]

Alright. I'll bite. If I'm a new carrier why would I choose YOW over YHM? With Hamilton I can still pull in a lot of the GTA market and I get lower operating costs. And I'm far enough west in the Corridor that I flow traffic from the East going westbound.

YOW can be the eastern alternative to YUL going eastbound. But YUL really isn't worth as much as the GTA market to most carriers anyway. And even this is not useful for all markets. Doing transborder from YOW means backtracking and a change for Montrealers. Why would they choose that?

Porter could choose to give up the Montreal market. That's what I would do. I would pick YHM and YOW. But if they want to serve every major matter, TB hub at YOW doesn't make sense.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Alright. I'll bite. If I'm a new carrier why would I choose YOW over YHM? With Hamilton I can still pull in a lot of the GTA market and I get lower operating costs. And I'm far enough west in the Corridor that I flow traffic from the East going westbound.

YOW can be the eastern alternative to YUL going eastbound. But YUL really isn't worth as much as the GTA market to most carriers anyway. And even this is not useful for all markets. Doing transborder from YOW means backtracking and a change for Montrealers. Why would they choose that?

Porter could choose to give up the Montreal market. That's what I would do. I would pick YHM and YOW. But if they want to serve every major matter, TB hub at YOW doesn't make sense.

But this is not what they’re all doing. Take Jetlines for example. YYZ is their base, not even YHM. YYZ has about half a dozen carriers already serving the specific routes that Jetlines has started. Are these 6 or so carriers having trouble keeping up with demand and each of their flights are full and now Jetlines is coming to the rescue? I highly highly highly doubt that. If they’re already going for a major airport, why not YOW where anyone who is a traveller here has expressed frustration over the lack of direct options. Not to mention every point of sale that’s driving to YUL instead of beginning in YOW due to that lack. You have available demand to start, as more flights are added, that available demand drops. I’m waiting for that point when available demand is so low in YYZ that airlines start shifting.

It also doesn’t have to be Montreal people to come and connect in YOW. There’s the Maritimes who are already accustomed to connecting and have a decent sized population for a couple of daily flights from each major city to YOW for one or 2 banks. I agree that Porter should just drop YUL but YHM is too far to capture loyal Toronto pax. At that point I would just use AC, or the other 10 thousand carriers that have made YYZ a hub.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

But this is not what they’re all doing. Take Jetlines for example. YYZ is their base, not even YHM. YYZ has about half a dozen carriers already serving the specific routes that Jetlines has started. Are these 6 or so carriers having trouble keeping up with demand and each of their flights are full and now Jetlines is coming to the rescue? I highly highly highly doubt that.

Look at where Jetlines are flying to and how often. This isn't full spectrum competition with Air Canada and WestJet. They have picked a few key routes and are focused on time slots that are off peak to be able to offer discounts.

Personally, I think they would have been better off launching from Hamilton. But it kinda should tell you how lucrative these guys think the Toronto market is that they are willing to enter the fray for a small piece of the pie than a bigger piece of a smaller market. Ultimately their business plans are informing their decisions. And it's their money. So I'm going to guess they know more than we do.

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

If they’re already going for a major airport, why not YOW where anyone who is a traveller here has expressed frustration over the lack of direct options. Not to mention every point of sale that’s driving to YUL instead of beginning in YOW due to that lack. You have available demand to start, as more flights are added, that available demand drops. I’m waiting for that point when available demand is so low in YYZ that airlines start shifting.

Still not a huge market though. When you have Max 8s with 189 seats to fill and a business plan that requires you to fly that airplane 16 hrs a day, you need a large market. And new U/LCCs don't have large networks or partnerships to give them feed.

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

It also doesn’t have to be Montreal people to come and connect in YOW. There’s the Maritimes who are already accustomed to connecting and have a decent sized population for a couple of daily flights from each major city to YOW for one or 2 banks.

The Maritimes can provide some feed. But it's a terrible market on which to build a business. Think about it. 2.5M spread out over a huge area. The largest city, of which is 80k smaller than London, Ontario. For any airline, to actually the serve the Maritimes with several banks from a hub they'll need smaller regional aircraft (~80 seater). None of the new startups are bothering with regional jets. Even Porter is still launching with a 130-140 seat E2-195. How many of those could realistically be sent to Moncton, Fredericton and Charlottetown in a day? And it's not even like there's no competition in the Maritimes. Every major city in Atlantic Canada is connected to YYZ and YUL by Air Canada. Four airlines serve Atlantic Canada from Ottawa. Halifax gets two airlines from Hamilton and seasonal flights with American Airlines to three cities. So in all that, how much more feed is left to develop for a new carrier in Ottawa?

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

I agree that Porter should just drop YUL but YHM is too far to capture loyal Toronto pax. At that point I would just use AC, or the other 10 thousand carriers that have made YYZ a hub.

If Porter really wants to play in the Transborder market, they'll need at least a small operation at YUL. Maybe it's just 3-4 airplanes serving Boston, New York, DC and Chicago. But they'll need to play if they want to grow their brand, which is clearly what they are aiming for. They can still keep YOW as their scissor hub between Atlantic Canada and Western Canada.

On Hamilton, I disagree. I think the biggest reason YHM hasn't taken off is transport to the airport. There's buses going to Buffalo airport but not that many doing YHM runs. If that does get fixed someday, LCCs will do really well there.

[Dominion301]

Today’s departure count: 57, including 10 sun flights

Today’s cancellation count: 1

[hehehe]

With all the AC cuts I wonder if PD adds some (even if limited) flights on the DH8 to YYG, and maybe on the Embraer to YYT while adding frequencies to YQM/YFC, which could help feed some flights to western Canada, Florida and maybe a couple of western and other southern TB destinations too. It doesn't have to be a huge operation, but I feel like it could work.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by hehehe

With all the AC cuts I wonder if PD adds some (even if limited) flights on the DH8 to YYG, and maybe on the Embraer to YYT while adding frequencies to YQM/YFC, which could help feed some flights to western Canada, Florida and maybe a couple of western and other southern TB destinations too. It doesn't have to be a huge operation, but I feel like it could work.

I’m hoping the cuts make room for PD. I’m too impatient to wait to see what they’re going to do with YOW haha.

[YOWflier]

Flew FLL on AC recently. A half dozen or so people in my immediate vicinity were from BC and connecting to YVR. Was surprised; I wonder how common this routing is (cruise traffic from west).

[Richard Eade]

I think that there is a number of 'strange' routing happening. The other week, my in-laws flew from Ottawa to Phoenix on AC. They were routed Ottawa->Calgary->Edmonton->Phoenix. It made for a very long day for the over-80-year-old. Return was Phoenix->Toronto->3-h layover->Ottawa. They were NOT pleased, but felt that they didn't have any other good option so endured it. But from now on, they will be looking much harder for ANY option that is NOT AC.

I wonder how much thought these airlines give to their reputation when they do things like this. Maybe they feel that they don't have to because there are so few real options. I miss 'Wardair Class'.

[YOWflier]

To be clear there is nothing “strange” about the routing I described except that I’m surprised AC actually sells this connection to Westerners with YYZ/hubs nearby.

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by Richard Eade

I think that there is a number of 'strange' routing happening. The other week, my in-laws flew from Ottawa to Phoenix on AC. They were routed Ottawa->Calgary->Edmonton->Phoenix. It made for a very long day for the over-80-year-old. Return was Phoenix->Toronto->3-h layover->Ottawa. They were NOT pleased, but felt that they didn't have any other good option so endured it. But from now on, they will be looking much harder for ANY option that is NOT AC.

I wonder how much thought these airlines give to their reputation when they do things like this. Maybe they feel that they don't have to because there are so few real options. I miss 'Wardair Class'.

Did they fly YEG-PHX on WS? Because AC doesn't fly YEG-PHX

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Richard Eade

I think that there is a number of 'strange' routing happening. The other week, my in-laws flew from Ottawa to Phoenix on AC. They were routed Ottawa->Calgary->Edmonton->Phoenix. It made for a very long day for the over-80-year-old. Return was Phoenix->Toronto->3-h layover->Ottawa. They were NOT pleased, but felt that they didn't have any other good option so endured it. But from now on, they will be looking much harder for ANY option that is NOT AC.

I wonder how much thought these airlines give to their reputation when they do things like this. Maybe they feel that they don't have to because there are so few real options. I miss 'Wardair Class'.

I’m so sorry for your in-laws to have to go through that, but I think you mean Westjet rather than AC? Either way, that’s the beauty of the hub-spoke system. Airlines cater for their hubs while the rest of us unimportant cities get shafted. This is the reason I’m hoping Porter creates a reasonable and well served hub here in YOW with a codeshare with one or 2 major carriers. In that event it will be goodbye AC and WS for me as I go out of my way to support those that make YOW important to them. Unfortunately right now though, AC and WS are able to do such a thing to people because we have no choice. That’s why I’m hoping PD comes in and wakes them up. Also, if your in-laws were a little flexible with days and if this was not a last minute emergency booking, they could have gotten a better itinerary. Not sure what their situation was though.

I get that the hub-spoke system allows airlines to reach further with their destination offerings, but they really need to treat the spoke cities better with better connectivity. I feel like people forget that without feeder cities, these carriers would crumble.

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

To be clear there is nothing “strange” about the routing I described except that I’m surprised AC actually sells this connection to Westerners with YYZ/hubs nearby.

That is weird. I always thought that these routes were for O&D pax since YOW isn’t exactly used for connections. Maybe the timing of flights was just right? Also YYZ doesn’t exactly have a flawless reputation right now.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

To be clear there is nothing “strange” about the routing I described except that I’m surprised AC actually sells this connection to Westerners with YYZ/hubs nearby.

Nothing strange really. Back in "normal" times pre-pandemic with the breadth of AC's former YOW "focus city" schedule, a good 10-12% of Star Alliance traffic at the airport were connections via YOW as overall connecting traffic was in the 5-7% range annually, which equated to 250k-350k pax/year. Even still, this was by far the lowest percentage of any airport in Canada as even YWG is more like 15%. Now it's no doubt even lower, but if a good YOW routing is available between two points, the connection will be sold via here. AC has never timed any flights to connect here, but as a once large AC station (hopefully will be again in a few years), enough flights here would be in clusters for some connections as a result. Pre-pandemic, even a few WestJet flights would align for connections...the odd one might still exist over the winter with the Florida flights...won't happen this summer though with now zero YOW-east presence on WS.

As a result, nowadays in 2022-23 I bet the net % of YOW traffic being connections is probably more like 2-3%...and unlike in the past is now undoubtedly higher in winter thanks to connecting sun flights than upcoming summer 2023.

Anecdotally, way back when I used to work at the airport in the 2000s for a competing airline, I knew a few of the AC staff and would often ask about the number of AC888/889 connecting pax on a given day. It wasn't uncommon to have 50 pax connecting thru YOW, including even sometimes to/from the likes of LGA, EWR & IAD. The evening YEG departure on AC used to align decently well for LHR-YOW-YEG connections and would often have a dozen or two connectors. Going from memory, 30 cnx pax was probably the average, but once in a while as many as 100 pax would be connecting to or from elsewhere via YOW's LHR flight...this was before the days of FRA (but included the Zoom LGW & GLA era, the Canadian Affair (Thomas Cook 757, later TS 310 LGW) era and short-lived TS to CDG era.