Heavy Rail, Commuter Rail, & Intercity Transportation

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Aroundtheworld

I am very happy that we don't have the same dysfunctional culture that exists in Ontario. The problem is that politics is way too involved in everything transit related. I've looked at some of the renderings of the Ontario Line and it looks overbuilt. There doesn't seem to be any incentive to try and keep costs down. On the surface, it seems like they may be doing something right by hiring Italian companies and doing P3s but the devil is always in the details. I doubt they're doing itemized contracts, for instance.

Indeed. And I'm happy that (so far) our problems with building new transit infrastructure have mostly been minor. Edmonton's new Valley Line LRT is the latest example of what can go wrong. They're having to structurally upgrade 30 of the 45 piers on the elevated section because of cracking (before the system has even started up). Quite the engineering design failure, and now three years behind schedule.

[GenWhy?]

Also, in today's dollar wouldn't the estimate in 2022 dollars for the HSR line now be something like $50b. Would it be unrealistic to see $60b+ by 2030 once contracts and materials could be "realistically" signed off?

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Indeed. And I'm happy that (so far) our problems with building new transit infrastructure have mostly been minor. Edmonton's new Valley Line LRT is the latest example of what can go wrong. They're having to structurally upgrade 30 of the 45 piers on the elevated section because of cracking (before the system has even started up). Quite the engineering design failure, and now three years behind schedule.

But the cost isn't on the City at least!

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

Also, in today's dollar wouldn't the estimate in 2022 dollars for the HSR line now be something like $50b. Would it be unrealistic to see $60b+ by 2030 once contracts and materials could be "realistically" signed off?

I suspect that's a dartboard number. The current assessment work should establish what the estimated cost might be - and as we know, those can be inaccurate too!

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

That seems like a pretty niche case to me...

I don't think it's that niche. HSR enabling super commuting is basically a turbocharged version of commuter rail. If people are willing to live in Mission and take the WCE to DT Vancouver, why wouldn't people choose to live in Bellingham and take HSR to DT Seattle? At 250MPH we're talking similar commute times. Someone who takes the train round-trip three times per week is far better for the business case than someone who takes the train once per year to see the Jays play the Mariners.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Changing City

It's only 'better' if HSR benefits the same number of people, or saves more GHGs than the same investment in local transit. You'll have to prove that the small number of passengers on HSR reduce the GHGs produced by more than the equivalent investment in local transit. I'd doubt that you could do that. The intention of investing in better local transit is to get more people to switch from driving, and to improve journey times and convenience for people already taking bus transit.

Super minor detail, but HSR doesn't necessarily have to benefit the same number of people to be equally beneficial. With Seattle being one of the top world tech headquarter hubs and Vancouver being a rising tech satellite office location, if HSR can make business exchanges between the two cities faster and more convenient, that could be a massive economic driver (while not necessarily directly benefiting a ton of people).

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Intercity transportation is different than inner city transportation. They serve completely different purposes.
I am guessing you think the 4 laning of the TCH that is happening now is stupid and that money should be spent on Vancouver.

You answered the reasons why it is better than spending that money on local transit.

And when budget constraints force an either-or choice, intracity gets more bang for the buck - especially when the intercity option only connects one city in BC, and to a completely different country. Widening the TCH costs about $1 billion. You get a grand total of zero new heavy rail lines in the Lower Mainland for that kind of money.

Congratulations, you've taken up to 5k out of 30k cars away from the border... against the hundred thousand you'd have removed from city streets with a UBC extension.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Sure I can be, but you'd have to explain. If reducing GHGs and improving movement for the most people using the greatest financial efficiency isn't the point of transportation investment, what is?

Ah yes, the strawman argument.

Originally Posted by Aroundtheworld

I am very happy that we don't have the same dysfunctional culture that exists in Ontario. The problem is that politics is way too involved in everything transit related. I've looked at some of the renderings of the Ontario Line and it looks overbuilt. There doesn't seem to be any incentive to try and keep costs down. On the surface, it seems like they may be doing something right by hiring Italian companies and doing P3s but the devil is always in the details. I doubt they're doing itemized contracts, for instance.

The Ontario Line is actually being under built. The line will not be using the same size vehicles as the rest of the subway. It is a pet project of the Premier as a "screw you" to Toronto.

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

Also, in today's dollar wouldn't the estimate in 2022 dollars for the HSR line now be something like $50b. Would it be unrealistic to see $60b+ by 2030 once contracts and materials could be "realistically" signed off?

And it will only get more expensive the longer we wait.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

And when budget constraints force an either-or choice, intracity gets more bang for the buck - especially when the intercity option only connects one city in BC, and to a completely different country. Widening the TCH costs about $1 billion. You get a grand total of zero new heavy rail lines in the Lower Mainland for that kind of money.

Congratulations, you've taken up to 5k out of 30k cars away from the border... against the hundred thousand you'd have removed from city streets with a UBC extension.

Well, if the costs are about the same as the existing Millennium Line extension, you get about 1/3 the way to UBC.
Maybe you should force the government to stop widening the TCH till UBC has Skytrain.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Well, if the costs are about the same as the existing Millennium Line extension, you get about 1/3 the way to UBC.
Maybe you should force the government to stop widening the TCH till UBC has Skytrain.

If we spend $4 billion on a line for American tourists, both the TCH and a UBC extension get put on hold.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

If we spend $4 billion on a line for American tourists, both the TCH and a UBC extension will get put on hold.

Which isn't a bad thing. Unless you have a narrow view on things. At which point it would be the end of your world.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Which isn't a bad thing. Unless you have a narrow view on things. At which point it would be the end of your world.

As far as the people giving out the money are concerned, the latter two help BC; the former helps Washington and Oregon. They would be mostly correct.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

As far as the people giving out the money are concerned, the latter two help BC; the former helps Washington and Oregon. They would be mostly correct.

There is almost 20,000 businesses that rely on tourism.
There are over 45,000 people working in tourism.
They bring in $7.1 Billion in revenue.
They pay about $730 Million in taxes to the BC government.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/tourism-immigration/tourism-resources/tourism-research

I'd say that helps BC out a lot.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

There is almost 20,000 businesses that rely on tourism.
There are over 45,000 people working in tourism.
They bring in $7.1 Billion in revenue.
They pay about $730 Million in taxes to the BC government.
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/tourism-immigration/tourism-resources/tourism-research

I'd say that helps BC out a lot.

Over thrice that many need to go to UBC. An equally large number of businesses depend on that; ditto commuters that are impacted by all that traffic. That helps BC even more.

We've already got over 10 million tourists each year. An extra 5k/day is a drop in the bucket.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Over thrice that many need to go to UBC. An equally large number of businesses depend on that; ditto commuters that are impacted by all that traffic. That helps BC even more.

We've already got over 10 million tourists each year. An extra 5k/day is a drop in the bucket.

This figures were for 2020... the year when Canada's borders were closed.
For an example of what that means, Banff usually sees around 9 million a year, but they were expecting around 2 million.

So, take those numbers and double or even triple them. Suddenly a university is not so big of a deal.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

This figures were for 2020... the year when Canada's borders were closed.
For an example of what that means, Banff usually sees around 9 million a year, but they were expecting around 2 million.

So, take those numbers and double or even triple them. Suddenly a university is not so big of a deal.

Tourists visit once a year at most; students, faculty and service workers go to UBC up to five days a week. That's not counting Greektown or Point Grey Village.

The Broadway Corridor generates $15.5 billion/year. The HSR's pegged at 2.3 million/year on opening day, and again, there's 10+ million tourists/year already, so excluding the ~600,000 Canadian boardings, even if all the riders are overnight visitors who wouldn't have come otherwise (highly unlikely), 17% of $22.3 billion in 2019 is... an extra $3.8 billion in GDP and $124 million in taxes.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Tourists visit once a year at most; students, faculty and service workers go to UBC five days a week. That's not counting Greektown or Point Grey Village.

The Broadway Corridor generates $15.5 billion/year. The HSR's pegged at 2.3 million/year on opening day, and again, there's 10+ million tourists/year already, so even if all the riders are new visitors, 23% of $22.3 billion in 2019 is... an extra $5.1 billion.

How does a Skytrain benefit those outside the Lower Mainland?
Population of the Lower Mainland is about 3 million, population of BC is 5 million.

So, how does the Skytrain benefit those 2 million?

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

This figures were for 2020... the year when Canada's borders were closed.
For an example of what that means, Banff usually sees around 9 million a year, but they were expecting around 2 million.

So, take those numbers and double or even triple them. Suddenly a university is not so big of a deal.

Well, the border wasn't closed all year because I took the Coast starlight to LA in 2020. But for much of the year, yes, it's true.

Fortunately, the 2020 report is reporting 2019 data, when the border was fully open, so no, the numbers are the numbers. (And the infographic also says 73% of visitors to BC were from Canada).

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

How does a Skytrain benefit those outside the Lower Mainland?
Population of the Lower Mainland is about 3 million, population of BC is 5 million.

So, how does the Skytrain benefit those 2 million?

How does the HSR benefit the 2 million outside the Lower Mainland? Once again, they can more easily fly to Seattle and Portland.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

How does the HSR benefit the 2 million outside the Lower Mainland? They can more easily fly to Seattle and Portland.

Isn't there buses to UBC?
Isn't that good enough?

Go tell your bosses you are doing a good job promoting your employer.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

How does a Skytrain benefit those outside the Lower Mainland?
Population of the Lower Mainland is about 3 million, population of BC is 5 million.

So, how does the Skytrain benefit those 2 million?

Please stop talking.

You have this incredibly narrow minded idea that only literally direct-to-consumer services can benefit someone. This is the mentality of an infant. Because you can't see something, you immediately assume it doesn't exist at all; The only things in your reality are those that are directly in front of you.

I'm sure you think logging on the island can't benefit Metro Vancouver, or agriculture in the Peace River can't benefit Metro Vancouver, or mining in the Kooteneys can't benefit Metro Vancouver. Guess who historically paid taxes to the province to even allow these transit projects to be thought of? Those industries, workers in those industries, and workers and companies adjacent to those industries.

It goes exactly the other way too, who is paying for infrastructure projects on the island or in the interior? Partially from the tax base of Metro Vancouver which can be expanded and increased by lubricating business and labour through better transit.

Transit dollars are usually better spent in the densest parts of Vancouver because when you have people more densely living and working and interacting transit dollars go further and help more.

Of course, this will go all over your head because you're kind of a dumbass, but c'mon just shut up.