Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by whatnext

New study out today. How strange, are they all just seniors scraping by on CPP cheques?

Ultra-luxurious home owners in Vancouver pay peanuts in income tax: UBC study
Sarah Anderson
Nov 10 2022

The owners of the top 5% of Greater Vancouver’s most expensive and luxurious homes pay relatively little in income tax, according to a recent study.

In a study called “The Prevalence of Low-Income Tax Payments Among Owners of Expensive Homes in Vancouver and Toronto,” authors Thomas Davidoff, Paul Boniface Akaabre, and Craig Jones report that “most luxury homes in Greater Vancouver appear to be purchased with wealth derived from sources other than earnings taxed in Canada.”...

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/luxury-home-owners-income-tax

It's good to have some research to back up previous blog/newspaper-level research. I seem to recall that Andy Yan found in his research into 2016 census data that, yes, the poorest postal code in Metro Vancouver is the Downtown Eastside, but the second "poorest" is a postal code in northern Richmond known, in part, for its large houses, new condo towers, SkyTrain line, and generally perceived level of affluence. "Poor" I believe was defined using various factors, including deviation of median income in the postal code from city-wide average, rate of low-income supports received in the postal code vs city-wide average, unemployment rates, etc. The research didn't go over well at the time.

Here's one article: https://globalnews.ca/news/3773729/richmond-incomes-downtown-eastside/

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

It's a similar opinion I hold on Ottawa's Greenbelt. That greenbelt has done nothing but cost Ottawa billions in additional infrastructure costs and made the city even more car dependent.

In Ottawa's case the Greenbelt is federally owned, so there's enormous potential for the feds to build affordable housing on it because they have no land cost.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

Yep. It's a different world. Can't easily offer land they can clear and farm these days either. Edit... maybe we will be able to in future, once climate change alters the environs of our north and its permafrost.

There's a lot of land around Kingston that's on the border of the Canadian Shield and the Great Lakes lowlands that's marginal farmland - it's not productive enough for modern-style large scale farming, but it's productive enough for boutique farms & homestead-type operations. One of the fun things about living in Kingston is going to farmers markets and buying unique products from these small boutique farms that have set up in the region (that are often as small as 10-20 acres or even less). One of my favourites are these guys; they're a gay couple, one a white guy from an old stock family and the other an immigrant from China, who moved from Toronto to start up the farm where they produce farm-to-table traditional Chinese foods - not something you see a lot of in Ontario so they do good business.

I think there's a lot of potential for this kind of thing in large chunks of rural Eastern Ontario.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

There's a lot of land around Kingston that's on the border of the Canadian Shield and the Great Lakes lowlands that's marginal farmland - it's not productive enough for modern-style large scale farming, but it's productive enough for boutique farms & homestead-type operations. One of the fun things about living in Kingston is going to farmers markets and buying unique products from these small boutique farms that have set up in the region (that are often as small as 10-20 acres or even less). One of my favourites are these guys; they're a gay couple, one a white guy from an old stock family and the other an immigrant from China, who moved from Toronto to start up the farm where they produce farm-to-table traditional Chinese foods - not something you see a lot of in Ontario so they do good business.

I think there's a lot of potential for this kind of thing in large chunks of rural Eastern Ontario.

Enough to make benefit glorious province of Ontario? Farming is not an easy business, so maybe there are people who would gladly exit to make way for someone who is interested. Maybe some kind of program for that could be helpful.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Imagine that for the next decade the federal an provincial governments refused to help any business with grants or other things for opening or expanding within the GTA. That is what the governments can do to dictate the market.

Fairness issues aplenty with that one.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

It's good to have some research to back up previous blog/newspaper-level research. I seem to recall that Andy Yan found in his research into 2016 census data that, yes, the poorest postal code in Metro Vancouver is the Downtown Eastside, but the second "poorest" is a postal code in northern Richmond known, in part, for its large houses, new condo towers, SkyTrain line, and generally perceived level of affluence. "Poor" I believe was defined using various factors, including deviation of median income in the postal code from city-wide average, rate of low-income supports received in the postal code vs city-wide average, unemployment rates, etc. The research didn't go over well at the time.

Here's one article: https://globalnews.ca/news/3773729/richmond-incomes-downtown-eastside/

Shh, don't dare mention that in the Richmond forum. They'll have one their trademarked hissy fits.

It's been very clear that prices in parts of Vancouver have been driven up by buyers funded by offshore money and not contributing to Canadian tax rolls.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

In Ottawa's case the Greenbelt is federally owned, so there's enormous potential for the feds to build affordable housing on it because they have no land cost.

That is a great idea! That is why the government will never do it, citing some sort of green reason.

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

Fairness issues aplenty with that one.

Are you really going to tell me that the government is fair when giving out money?

[lio45]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Shh, don't dare mention that in the Richmond forum. They'll have one their trademarked hissy fits.

It's been very clear that prices in parts of Vancouver have been driven up by buyers funded by offshore money and not contributing to Canadian tax rolls.

Why would they contribute to Canadian tax rolls? They earn no income here. They contribute their fair share (Richmond municipal property taxes, each year). One could even say their pay more than their share, since the Meng Wanzhous have markedly lower road/garbage/sewer/etc. use than average.

The correct way to think about this is, is there a way Canada could tax these people more? And the obvious answer is, no, if we try they’ll just go anywhere else (and they can).

And yes, needless to say, everyone knows BCMLs are the reason prices are so completely out of whack with all local metrics in the greater Vancouver area. Only retards and liars would try to disagree with that.

[Arrdeeharharharbour]

Just thought I'd toss in a link to this property in Annapolis Royal, NS.


https://www.viewpoint.ca/map#eyJvdmVydml...IjoiMDUwMDI1NDgiLCJjbGFzc19pZCI6IjEifX19

[giallo]

I'm not sure this was posted yet, but it's right up this thread's alley.

• Video Link

[casper]

Originally Posted by lio45

Why would they contribute to Canadian tax rolls? They earn no income here. They contribute their fair share (Richmond municipal property taxes, each year). One could even say their pay more than their share, since the Meng Wanzhous have markedly lower road/garbage/sewer/etc. use than average.

The correct way to think about this is, is there a way Canada could tax these people more? And the obvious answer is, no, if we try they’ll just go anywhere else (and they can).

And yes, needless to say, everyone knows BCMLs are the reason prices are so completely out of whack with all local metrics in the greater Vancouver area. Only retards and liars would try to disagree with that.

I would not be overly worried about it. If they are making money overseas brining it into Canada and spending it on goods and services in Canada they will be paying GST & PST. As well that economic activity creates jobs and provides a market for Canadian goods.

So we have a small number of homes owned by tourists or nomads. Nothing to get overly worried about.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by casper

I would not be overly worried about it. If they are making money overseas brining it into Canada and spending it on goods and services in Canada they will be paying GST & PST. As well that economic activity creates jobs and provides a market for Canadian goods.

So we have a small number of homes owned by tourists or nomads. Nothing to get overly worried about.

LOL, the GST and PST covers very little if the have PR or citizenship and use schools, hospitals etc.

[casper]

Originally Posted by whatnext

LOL, the GST and PST covers very little if the have PR or citizenship and use schools, hospitals etc.

Well 40% of Canadian pay no income tax. That is by design.

Everyone is paying around 12-15% in sales tax.

[Coldrsx]

Top 5 Rental Markets

1.Vancouver, BC remained the priciest market with one-bedroom rent staying flat at $2,500, while two-bedrooms dropped 3.6% to $3,500. Notably, one-bedroom rent in this city is up 19% since this time last year.

2. Toronto, ON was 2nd with one-bedroom rent increasing 1.9% to $2,130, while two-bedrooms grew 1.5% to $2680.

3. Victoria, BC & Burnaby, BC tied for third again with one-bedroom prices in both cities climbing 1% to $2,100.

5. Kelowna, BC ranked as the 5th most expensive with one-bedroom rent increasing 3.2% to $1,960, while two-bedrooms inched up 0.4% to $2,410.

Cities with The Largest Monthly Changes

Upward

–Hamilton, ON moved up 2 spots to become the 11th priciest city and had the largest monthly rent price growth rate, jumping 6.9% to $1,700.

–London, ON was the 14th most expensive market and saw rent climb 5.8% to $1,630.

–Abbotsford, BC rose 2 positions to become 15th with rent growing 4.8% to $1,540.

Downward

–Windsor, ON was the 18th priciest with one-bedroom rent falling 2.2% to $1,360.

–Edmonton, AB moved down 1 spot to become 22nd with rent decreasing 1% to $1,000.

–Winnipeg, MB took a 1 ranking dip to 20th with rent declining 0.9% to $1,060.

https://www.zumper.com/blog/rental-price...D%5D&mc_cid=72e0b0dab9&mc_eid=b81cde227f

[thebasketballgeek]

Holy — QC with a staggering 30% y/y increase for 2 bedrooms. Even Saskatoon with a 15% increase seems unusually high. Can someone from either of those places explain this huge jump?

Nice to see the Winnipeg market finally reverting back to some form of normalcy with the stagnant house and rent prices. Hopefully there can even be a bit of a dip and we can see prices back to pre-pandemic levels.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Coldrsx

Top 5 Rental Markets

1.Vancouver, BC remained the priciest market with one-bedroom rent staying flat at $2,500, while two-bedrooms dropped 3.6% to $3,500. Notably, one-bedroom rent in this city is up 19% since this time last year.

2. Toronto, ON was 2nd with one-bedroom rent increasing 1.9% to $2,130, while two-bedrooms grew 1.5% to $2680.

3. Victoria, BC & Burnaby, BC tied for third again with one-bedroom prices in both cities climbing 1% to $2,100.

5. Kelowna, BC ranked as the 5th most expensive with one-bedroom rent increasing 3.2% to $1,960, while two-bedrooms inched up 0.4% to $2,410.

Cities with The Largest Monthly Changes

Upward

–Hamilton, ON moved up 2 spots to become the 11th priciest city and had the largest monthly rent price growth rate, jumping 6.9% to $1,700.

–London, ON was the 14th most expensive market and saw rent climb 5.8% to $1,630.

–Abbotsford, BC rose 2 positions to become 15th with rent growing 4.8% to $1,540.

Downward

–Windsor, ON was the 18th priciest with one-bedroom rent falling 2.2% to $1,360.

–Edmonton, AB moved down 1 spot to become 22nd with rent decreasing 1% to $1,000.

–Winnipeg, MB took a 1 ranking dip to 20th with rent declining 0.9% to $1,060.

https://www.zumper.com/blog/rental-price...D%5D&mc_cid=72e0b0dab9&mc_eid=b81cde227f

Make me wonder what is Windsor, Edmonton an Winnipeg doing that is lowering their rents.

[thebasketballgeek]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Make me wonder what is Windsor, Edmonton an Winnipeg doing that is lowering their rents.

For Winnipeg and Edmonton it’s crime and weather. Even though in Canada most places have brutal weather in the winter Edmonton and Winnipeg turn it up a notch to a suffering only seen in the most inhospitable places in the planet. Difference between the two is Edmonton also has good housing policy while Winnipeg has a lot of emigration which usually means lots of availability for housing stock in both places.

In Windsor’s case the only thing I can think of is proximity to Detroit but your guess is as good as mine.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

For Winnipeg and Edmonton it’s crime and weather. Even though in Canada most places have brutal weather in the winter Edmonton and Winnipeg turn it up a notch to a suffering only seen in the most inhospitable places in the planet. Difference between the two is Edmonton also has good housing policy while Winnipeg has a lot of emigration which usually means lots of availability for housing stock in both places.

In Windsor’s case the only thing I can think of is proximity to Detroit but your guess is as good as mine.

What is that policy and can it be reproduced elsewhere with success?

[thebasketballgeek]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

What is that policy and can it be reproduced elsewhere with success?

Here's a good article that highlights what Edmonton is doing.

Edmonton's omnibus zoning bylaw would change entire city and limit development rules

Neighbourhoods could be in for some significant, transformational and permanent changes as Edmonton moves forward on plans to rezone the entire city and limit regulations on development.

The omnibus zoning bylaw, if passed, would upzone most lots now restricted to single-family homes and duplexes to allow for infill development. It would boost density and housing types allowed, like small apartments, rowhouses, garden suites, and supportive housing up to 10 metres in height — including in mature neighbourhoods — as well as some small businesses. Outside Anthony Henday Drive, residential lots have slightly different rules.

It would use about half the zones and about a quarter of land-use types as the current bylaws, so sites can be used for multiple purposes. Zones are split into residential, mixed-use, commercial, industrial, open space and civic services, agricultural or rural, and specialized categories.

City planners told a council committee Tuesday the zoning bylaw renewal project will bring the “transformational” long-term goals in the City Plan to life, including “15-minute districts” and more infill and transit-friendly development.

Staffer Livia Balone, directing the zoning bylaw renewal, said it simplifies zoning and takes a different approach to regulation. She argued it improves equity by considering the “unintended social impacts of regulation.”

“This will allow for greater innovation and resilience to changes in the market conditions, and it will ultimately accommodate a wider range of development … (and create) a regulatory environment that minimizes challenges to economic activity,” she told councillors.

Less public input

Upzoning at this citywide scale intentionally limits rezoning requests where the public and city council get to weigh in on developments. This saves the city time and money, Balone said.

Outlining these changes in practice, Balone outlined a hypothetical scenario where a property owner wants to build infill row housing.

“Today, this property owner would need to apply for a rezoning and risk the time, expense, and uncertainty that comes with it. And if they don’t, the community is at risk of missing out on a housing form that could provide different housing options,” she said.

“What if it were easier for redevelopment to occur?”

Coun. Ashley Salvador said in an interview that zoning rules need to be updated to reflect the City Plan. Mass rezoning for density allows for different housing types and people in the same neighbourhood, she said.

“It allows them to live a more affordable lifestyle. Maybe they are able to live next to transit … it really has that trickle-down effect and can touch affordability in numerous ways.”

Asked if this could lead to gentrification, Salvador said housing supply is artificially suppressed leading to rising prices, and spot rezoning requests are more of a problem.

A draft of the zoning bylaw will return to a council committee in November.

Councillors on Tuesday also approved, in principle, another strategy that divides the city into 15 districts and tosses out potentially hundreds of neighbourhood plans.

Developers involved in zone changes, not community leagues

Speakers representing a significant part of the local development industry — the Canadian Homebuilders Association (CHBA) and Urban Development Institute (UDI) — said they had already worked with city administration on the zoning bylaw and district rule changes and were largely supportive.

Rohit Group of Companies VP Adil Kodian said CHBA members are eager for changes, which will “require a shift away from traditional forms of prescriptive to a more supportive and open regulatory environment.”

UDI executive director Kalen Anderson urged the city to speed up and give developers certainty: “Moving forward quickly and confidently is critical.”

Michaela Davis, also representing UDI, said residential zones should, by default, allow for more flexibility on building height and width.

Representatives of community leagues, however, questioned why they were not granted the same access and ability to weigh in.

Michael Cohen, president of Belgravia Community League, said people are overwhelmed with all the changes.

“The great majority of homeowners who will be affected by (this) have no idea of what’s coming into their neighbourhoods,” he said. “Unless the city fills this information gap, there will be extensive surprise (and) stress.”

Beverly Zubot, Parkallen Community League spokesperson, said it would be a “grave mistake” not to involve community leagues as they play an important role in gathering feedback. Lack of involvement earlier on, she said, creates distrust.

[Coldrsx]

Canmore continues to be the outlier in Alberta due to housing costs and relatively low average wages.

---

2022's living wage data (ranked highest to lowest)

Canmore: $32.75;
Fort McMurray: $22.50;
Calgary: $22.40;
St. Albert: $22.40;
Cochrane: $22.35;
Rocky Mountain House: $21.85;
Edmonton: $21.40;
Drumheller: $21.20;
Spruce Grove: $20.70;
Stony Plain: $20.40;
Lethbridge: $20.30;
Drayton Valley: $19.65;
Grande Prairie: $19.65;
Red Deer: $19.65; and
Medicine Hat: $17.50.

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/alberta-s-liv...ers-in-canmore-report-suggests-1.6152318