Quote:
Originally Posted by TakeFive
And we're not going back to the 'good old days' when developer-builders created sprawl and periods of waaaay too much housing. Perhaps ongoing Stagflation will create adjustments as even the Tech Stars are cutting payroll. It's likely that city centers will continue to depend on the next group of young people while as people age/mature the desire for space will prevail. Nicer units will continue to appeal to those who are older and love the city center.
I'm always happy to add that Denver has done a credible job of adding 'designated' affordable housing to help with Seniors, with Veterans and even those with disabilities. But if Denver remains the attractive place it is then market rate affordability will continue to be a challenge. Same for Seattle - in spades.
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For all the talk of the end of the desirability of central Denver, I am sure not seeing it in the real world affordability of housing around me. There's a realtor who sends a quarterly summary of all the sales in the immediate vicinity of our house every quarter, with stats, square footage, asking price, sales price. It's great reading. And it tells me my central Denver house would still sell for 40% more than I paid for it in January 2020 (by dumb luck, a mere two months before the pandemic). And that's with the death of downtown, the end of commutes, homeless camps in our front yards, rampant crime foretelling the end of organized civilization, and the failure of democratic governance, apparently all weighing down my 'hood. The only way I can make sense of it is that people, even middle-aged people, must still like trees, brick, and sidewalks, and expect to still want those things post-apocalypse. And want those things as much as a patch of grass, fresh carpet, and easy maintenance.
Edit: And look, it's not like I am not ever-on-the-lookout for a new white flight, a second urban exodus. I don't plan to be left behind in the burning theater; I'm probably going to be at the front of the horde running for the exits. I'm just not seeing it. At least not to the suburbs. Is there a new interest in mountain homes for those who have forever sworn off the office? Sure. But the people I see moving to Lone Tree today were always moving to Lone Tree. Maybe the space trade-offs that have always existed between urban/suburban are weighed slightly differently in a world where people need a home office. But at the end of the day, people who were already choosing a bungalow over a McMansion are not suddenly needing a Trump-esque home office setup with cherry desk and a 9' bookcase. Folks make it work just fine (for me, it's the breakfast nook turned office by day). I actually think we all have a lot of data on this now, after two years of seeing everybody's Zoom background and knowing exactly how people have set up their home workspaces. Lots of people have said, "I finished my attic [or my garage]." Also lots of "I moved from a 700sf apartment to an 1,100sf apartment because my boy/girlfriend talks too damn loud." Not once has somebody said, "hey, check out my new setup, so glad I have a separate den now in Castle Rock."
I also think the sudden wave of comfort with neighborhood after neighborhood being rezoned en masse for ADUs (which if you'll recall, we all though was impossible four years ago) is not just tied to affordability; it's also tied to folks valuing flexibility in their home setups more than they did pre-pandemic. And it's working marvelously, if you ask me.
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