YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[nname]

Originally Posted by NewfBC

Maybe connections. Mexico has 0 flights to Japan right now.. and probably very limited flights to other locations. A lot of Mexicans would prefer to connect in Canada vs USA.

Ron.

Maybe just that.. MEX have a lot of demands. LAX have 7 dailies, SFO have 6 dailies, ORD have 6, JFK have 6, DEN have 4... And AM flies 3-4 dailies to each of them. If you go closer to Mexico, MIA have 9 dailies, and IAH have 12

Keep in mind that before 4O collapsed, we used to have 5x daily to MEX over the peak season, so this is actually reduced from 2019.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Maybe just that.. MEX have a lot of demands. LAX have 7 dailies, SFO have 6 dailies, ORD have 6, JFK have 6, DEN have 4... And AM flies 3-4 dailies to each of them. If you go closer to Mexico, MIA have 9 dailies, and IAH have 12

Keep in mind that before 4O collapsed, we used to have 5x daily to MEX over the peak season, so this is actually reduced from 2019.

And Westjet too. Having 4 already is a sign of good demand / recovery.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Zmonkey

If it's the former I am surprised Vancouver has 4 dailies, (Alberta and BC have about the same number of people of Mexican background) and Alberta has 0 dailies to Mexico city.

You shouldn't be surprised with the fact that Alberta doesn't have MEX service.

1. YYC-MEX has been tried before, and the carriers (MX, AM and WS) pulled out. That's a sign the route wasn't profitable.

2. Several larger US cities still don't have service to MEX. Boston and Tampa are some obvious examples. Although, it is worth noting that last year, the FAA downgraded Mexico from Cat 1 to Cat 2 status, meaning Mexican carriers cannot add anymore service to the US, only maintain what they have. Mexico still hasn't regained Cat 1 status. So that kind of plays in Canada's favor, since the US is off limits for Aeromexico for the time being.

[yesheh]

Originally Posted by Zmonkey

I have to ask, what is the big pull to have 4 dailies to Mexico city? Is the demand for people of Mexican background to go back and forth or connect Vancouver via Mexico to Latin America?

If it's the former I am surprised Vancouver has 4 dailies, (Alberta and BC have about the same number of people of Mexican background) and Alberta has 0 dailies to Mexico city.

BC has a lot of foreign workers from Mexico that are almost all on max 8 month contracts and they have to all go home by December 15. I think it's averaging 15,000 workers per year now? There is a lot of back and forth.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by yesheh

BC has a lot of foreign workers from Mexico that are almost all on max 8 month contracts and they have to all go home by December 15. I think it's averaging 15,000 workers per year now? There is a lot of back and forth.

This 2021 article said 6500 workers from Mexico (I assume in the agricultural sector only)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/migrant-works-displaced-by-flooding-1.6256504

20000 across Canada working on farms (2022 number)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business...g-up-their-search-for-temporary-foreign/

Is Mexico City a transit hub to other parts of Latin America/South America?

Seems like seasonal workers would need another visa to also transit through the US?

[yesheh]

Originally Posted by jollyburger

This 2021 article said 6500 workers from Mexico (I assume in the agricultural sector only)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/migrant-works-displaced-by-flooding-1.6256504

20000 across Canada working on farms (2022 number)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business...g-up-their-search-for-temporary-foreign/

Is Mexico City a transit hub to other parts of Latin America/South America?

Seems like seasonal workers would need another visa to also transit through the US?

Whoops. I'd defer to these numbers although I'd expect it is higher this year in BC than the last two years. Mexico is definitely a transit hub to other places in Latin America for these workers. And yes, they need a visa to transit the US so they just don't do it. Anyway, I think that is a source of some of the demand.

[trofirhen]

As someone interested in, but not knowledgeable of the airline industry, I came across this, and am sharing it. Does this mean that YVR might see nonstops to DXB? Or am I just wishfully thinking?

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3898451-ai...rce=seeking_alpha&utm_term=29554110.1116

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

As someone interested in, but not knowledgeable of the airline industry, I came across this, and am sharing it. Does this mean that YVR might see nonstops to DXB? Or am I just wishfully thinking?

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3898451-ai...rce=seeking_alpha&utm_term=29554110.1116

It means more flight from Toronto. The initial announcements focus on Toronto and Dubai and connections from those cities.

This may change in the medium to longer term, but initially this means it will be easier to connect in Toronto/Dubai via AC and EK. There are also no further slots for a Canada - UAE route.
Longer term Western Canada could support this route, (West Jet was looking at doing a Calgary - Dubai route in 2019) but airlines seem to be keen to push everyone through Toronto today.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Zmonkey

It means more flights from Toronto. The initial announcements focus on Toronto and Dubai and connections from those cities.
/editing mine /
.... airlines seem to be keen to push everyone through Toronto today.

It has always seemed that way to me - forcing everyone to be hubbed through YYZ, that is. Others disagree, and I'm only going on what I perceive, but it seems very obvious to me. Despite what others say to the contrary it seems (and again, my opinion only) that the GTAA and AC are shall we say, "making love to each other," to put it politely. This at the expense of freezing other cities (notably YVR and possibly YYC) out.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Zmonkey

There are also no further slots for a Canada - UAE route.

I think WS can still add service to DXB.

AC, EY and EK have maxed out their slots. (it's actually seat limited now). Since there are 2 U.A.E carriers operating to Canada, I think there is room for a second Canadian carrier on the route as well.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

I think WS can still add service to DXB.

AC, EY and EK have maxed out their slots. (it's actually seat limited now). Since there are 2 U.A.E carriers operating to Canada, I think there is room for a second Canadian carrier on the route as well.

That'd be great, YYC >< DXB. I wonder if they'd include a leg to YVR as well. It's too bad that Transport Canada wouldn't allow EK into YVR years back, and Seattle got it instead.
The argument, as I understand it, was that EK would "cannibalize" routes out of YVR. True? Someone tell me, please.

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

That'd be great, YYC >< DXB. I wonder if they'd include a leg to YVR as well. It's too bad that Transport Canada wouldn't allow EK into YVR years back, and Seattle got it instead.
The argument, as I understand it, was that EK would "cannibalize" routes out of YVR. True? Someone tell me, please.

If Canada and the UAE don't have open skies and EK only received limited frequencies into YVR, then not by any significant margin. If there were open skies I think EK would decimate other competitors nation wide.

[nname]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

That'd be great, YYC >< DXB. I wonder if they'd include a leg to YVR as well.

WS wants to push everyone through YYC, even more so than AC through YYZ. As stated with their latest plan, all intercontinental flying will go through YYC.

I'm still waiting for them to cancel the YVR-LGW for next year and reroute everyone through YYC. So far that haven't happened yet...

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by nname

WS wants to push everyone through YYC, even more so than AC through YYZ. As stated with their latest plan, all intercontinental flying will go through YYC.

I'm still waiting for them to cancel the YVR-LGW for next year and reroute everyone through YYC. So far that haven't happened yet...

Also seems safe that even if West Jet was considering Dubai several years ago, its effectively of the table. They cancelled their last remaining 787's, and only have 7.
Even at 4 flights a week they need a full frame to do Dubai and they need a partner to transfer people to India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. EK just got into bed with AC, so likely won't do something similar with West Jet.

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by nname

WS wants to push everyone through YYC, even more so than AC through YYZ. As stated with their latest plan, all intercontinental flying will go through YYC.

I'm still waiting for them to cancel the YVR-LGW for next year and reroute everyone through YYC. So far that haven't happened yet...

Well they've made zero changes to next summer's schedule except removing YHZ-DUB/GLA/CDG/LGW and YYZ-LGW/BCN but that was a few months ago. There's still a ton of slack for next summer's schedule so I'd assume further changes, but it's taking them a while.

[stiffdeadman]

Delta Air Lines in recent schedule update revised planned operation on Salt Lake City – Vancouver route. Temporarily suspended since 02OCT22, the Skyteam member now plans to resume service on 09JAN23 at earliest, instead of 17DEC22. Further extension is likely.

Planned schedule for the period of 09JAN23 – 14FEB23 as follows.

DL1156 SLC2100 – 2220YVR 319 D
DL1316 YVR0637 – 0955SLC 319 D

From aeroroutes.

wow. so delta figured they couldn't fill 130 seats a day over the holidays from one of its hubs to yvr. guess trudeaus travel restrictions though gone now are still affecting transborder traffic.

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by stiffdeadman

Delta Air Lines in recent schedule update revised planned operation on Salt Lake City – Vancouver route. Temporarily suspended since 02OCT22, the Skyteam member now plans to resume service on 09JAN23 at earliest, instead of 17DEC22. Further extension is likely.

Planned schedule for the period of 09JAN23 – 14FEB23 as follows.

DL1156 SLC2100 – 2220YVR 319 D
DL1316 YVR0637 – 0955SLC 319 D

From aeroroutes.

wow. so delta figured they couldn't fill 130 seats a day over the holidays from one of its hubs to yvr. guess trudeaus travel restrictions though gone now are still affecting transborder traffic.

After a promising summer (which turned out to have a lot of operational issues) most of Canada is still a ways to recovery. DL is probably content having people connect through SEA on their multiple dailies from YVR.

[Johnny Aussie]

^ very true.
SEA’s DL hub covers most of the major US markets. A major overlap with SLC.
YVR is the only city in Western Canada with any decent DL service these days.

I see trofirhen is banging on about Emirates and Dubai again… the semi-annual post!

[nname]

And YYC for the SLC case. DL seems to be consolidated the 1x 319 each to YVR and YYC, into 1x 320 to YYC for the first few months of winter.

=======================

F8 is adding 3x weekly YVR-YXU next summer starting June. The route was last served by WS years ago, before moving it to YXX and then transfer to Swoop.

F8 874 YVR 08:00 - 15:20 YXU 135
F8 875 YXU 16:05 - 18:05 YVR 135

So this pretty much confirm F8 will base fifth plane at YVR, as the schedule on Wednesday at least will overlap the YUL, YYZ, LAX, and SJD flights.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

/edit/
I see trofirhen is banging on about Emirates and Dubai again… the semi-annual post!

Excuse me. Yes, it's true, maybe I harp on certain topics too much, and I beg your pardon ... But is the ad hominem remark really necessary?