General Vancouver Updates

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by logan5

Some nice old houses on that block.

The CoV projects that the planning area will grow from 80 000 to 130 000 in the next 30 years.

Looking at the growth of the downtown peninsula over a 30 year period - from 1990 to 2020, the peninsula doubled in population from 55 000 to 110 000, so I think the Broadway estimate is way too low. There's also a lot more potential in the Broadway planning area with virtually every residential building eligible for redevelopment, and at higher densities than we first saw downtown. I most cases the new development will have 4 to 5 times the number of units than what was there before. I would predict the Broadway Corridor would easily more than double, or even close to triple in population in the next 30 years to well over 200 000.

But there are tower restrictions per block which might limit the actual potential for the area. I mean they have a map and can apply their zoning restrictions so I don't see how they could that drastically underreport the potential for the area.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by jollyburger

But there are tower restrictions per block which might limit the actual potential for the area. I mean they have a map and can apply their zoning restrictions so I don't see how they could that drastically underreport the potential for the area.

It wouldl take only 2 consolidated apartment buildings to have most of a block developed with 1 new build. The rest of the block would be 6 stories, or twice the size of what’s on these blocks now v

Proposed densities are 4 x or more of what they are now, so you could roughly calculate at full build out, the population would quadruple from 80 000 to 320 000. The downtown peninsula has fully built out, so the Broadway Corridor going from 80 000 to over 200 000 out of a possible 320 000 isn’t much of stretch imo.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by logan5

It wouldl take only 2 consolidated apartment buildings to have most of a block developed with 1 new build. The rest of the block would be 6 stories, or twice the size of what’s on these blocks now v

Proposed densities are 4 x or more of what they are now, so you could roughly calculate at full build out, the population would quadruple from 80 000 to 320 000. The downtown peninsula has fully built out, so the Broadway Corridor going from 80 000 to over 200 000 out of a possible 320 000 isn’t much of stretch imo.

The Plan says the population was 78,000, and will add up to 50,000 more residents. That seems a reasonable estimate. Downtown population change isn't a reliable predictor for the Broadway Plan, (unless it's tweaked to add further density).

The planned densities in the Broadway Plan are lower than many of the new developments in Downtown and the West End. Some of those are 20 FSR or more. Much of the development Downtown has been in Downtown South where commercial uses have been converted to residential, so all the added population is a net gain. In 30 years Downtown has gone from 9,000 to 69,000 people.

That's not true in several of the West End projects, where older rental housing has been redeveloped with new rental and strata. Those are going to be similar to many of the Broadway projects, and in 30 years the West End has gone from 38,000 to 48,000. Where commercial uses have been redeveloped to residential (like the Landmark, and Davie Safeway) the densities are similar to the potential Broadway Plan rental densities.

Downtown isn't by any means built out - there are at least 35 towers yet to be developed in the West End, and 25 more Downtown. It could easily reach a population of over 150,000.

Because the Broadway Plan encourages rental rather than condo, it might well develop more slowly than some other plans. Some developers build rental; others avoid it. The projects appearing now have often been waiting a long time, like the Reliance towers on the MEC site. The Cambie Corridor saw a similar initial flurry of proposals, but now sees a steadier pace of new projects being developed.

[logan5]

Practically every residential property in the Broadway Corridor is eligible for development. What we essentially have here is a blank slate of high density development in the most sought after area in Metro Vancouver. Development will happen at the same pace it did in the downtown peninsula between 1990 and 2010, except the Broadway planning area covers a much larger area than the peninsula. Mt. Pleasant alone will have a population growth of 50 000 people.

[GenWhy?]

Bulldozing rental in this plan area is very costly and very time consuming.

[rickvug]

Originally Posted by logan5

Practically every residential property in the Broadway Corridor is eligible for development. What we essentially have here is a blank slate of high density development in the most sought after area in Metro Vancouver. Development will happen at the same pace it did in the downtown peninsula between 1990 and 2010, except the Broadway planning area covers a much larger area than the peninsula. Mt. Pleasant alone will have a population growth of 50 000 people.

You are right around hypothetical amount of development and the hypothetical population once built out. However I'm hearing developers say that the economics aren't working for most sites due to the CACs, preference for rental, and social housing requirements. The initial flood of developments will be the "easy" sites. There isn't a question around the pace of development being artificially slowed, that's an explicit part of the plan, but there's still an open question as to what degree.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by logan5

Practically every residential property in the Broadway Corridor is eligible for development. What we essentially have here is a blank slate of high density development in the most sought after area in Metro Vancouver. Development will happen at the same pace it did in the downtown peninsula between 1990 and 2010, except the Broadway planning area covers a much larger area than the peninsula. Mt. Pleasant alone will have a population growth of 50 000 people.

I think you're vastly overestimating the reality of development. For example, developers have been able to build strata residential at a respectable density on Main St between 2nd and 7th Avenues for 12 years. From about 16 potential development sites, (almost none with any residential already there), just three have been developed (and the City have built social housing on a site they owned).

[GenWhy?]

I think some could break ground by next election. The ones that are not on current rental sites. Some of the long-held longer frontage rental sites could break ground by October 2026.

We're supposed to hear back about the enquiries by March 2023.
Submit maybe formal applications for rezoning by May or June 2023.
Then maybe October or November 2023 to get the rezoning to Public Hearing / Prior-To Letter with all your design conditions, if the backlog is almost cleared from 2022.
Apply for Development Permit in February 2024... maybe?

Really depends on Staff time too and getting your tenants out. If you have all permits in hand you have to then start a running clock of 4 months for all tenants to be out. So I could be ready to demo in October 2025 but might have to wait 4 months, then another month of demo, then start excavation sometime in March 2026!

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by Changing City

I think you're vastly overestimating the reality of development. For example, developers have been able to build strata residential at a respectable density on Main St between 2nd and 7th Avenues for 12 years. From about 16 potential development sites, (almost none with any residential already there), just three have been developed (and the City have built social housing on a site they owned).

I agree. I think the development will look quite impressive early on, with certain 'sites in waiting' putting in their applications. Then it will slow. There are a lot of parts of the region with development capacity. Sales for strata are terrible right now. The rental market is hot, but there is a truly incredible amount of purpose built rental in the pipeline.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by Changing City

I think you're vastly overestimating the reality of development. For example, developers have been able to build strata residential at a respectable density on Main St between 2nd and 7th Avenues for 12 years. From about 16 potential development sites, (almost none with any residential already there), just three have been developed (and the City have built social housing on a site they owned).

The FSR being offered around the stations is much much higher than the examples you gave, and a much better location. Developers will be all over these sites immediately. I’m going to do a bit of rough math later on and calculate the potential number of towers we will see around the stations, and along the arterials, where densities are like 8,9,10 FSR. These developments alone will give the area a huge population boost. Not to mention the surprising amount of strata in the low rise apartment areas.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by Changing City

I think you're vastly overestimating the reality of development. For example, developers have been able to build strata residential at a respectable density on Main St between 2nd and 7th Avenues for 12 years. From about 16 potential development sites, (almost none with any residential already there), just three have been developed (and the City have built social housing on a site they owned).

I’m basing my assessment on the reality’s of development that took place in the downtown peninsula. Yes I know there’s there’s a large rental element, but the potential fir strata development likely exceeds that of the peninsula, given that the Broadway corridor is much larger than the peninsula. It’s a fair comparable.

The areas around the stations are at a way higher FSR than the examples you mentioned, and in a better area. These sites will be built at a rapid pace. There are a lot of strata sites in the low rise apartment areas as well. Later I’m going to do the math on potential number of units in the station area for Mt. Pleasant. These will be built asap.

[logan5]

Oops. Sort of double post. I thought I lost the first one.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

I think some could break ground by next election. The ones that are not on current rental sites. Some of the long-held longer frontage rental sites could break ground by October 2026.

We're supposed to hear back about the enquiries by March 2023.
Submit maybe formal applications for rezoning by May or June 2023.
Then maybe October or November 2023 to get the rezoning to Public Hearing / Prior-To Letter with all your design conditions, if the backlog is almost cleared from 2022.
Apply for Development Permit in February 2024... maybe?

Really depends on Staff time too and getting your tenants out. If you have all permits in hand you have to then start a running clock of 4 months for all tenants to be out. So I could be ready to demo in October 2025 but might have to wait 4 months, then another month of demo, then start excavation sometime in March 2026!

"Getting your tenants out".

The problem with Broadway Plan in a nutshell.

[GenWhy?]

I might have missed it (as I don't have any strata projects in the Broadway Plan area) but I don't think they sorted out 100% the rental replacement issue. Last I heard there was talks of transferring the rental to another site, but nothing completely confirmed.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by logan5

I’m basing my assessment on the reality’s of development that took place in the downtown peninsula. Yes I know there’s there’s a large rental element, but the potential fir strata development likely exceeds that of the peninsula, given that the Broadway corridor is much larger than the peninsula. It’s a fair comparable.

The areas around the stations are at a way higher FSR than the examples you mentioned, and in a better area. These sites will be built at a rapid pace. There are a lot of strata sites in the low rise apartment areas as well. Later I’m going to do the math on potential number of units in the station area for Mt. Pleasant. These will be built asap.

I mean look at how many properties Concord Pacific and other developers were able to add to Yaletown which was just industrial land. There's no way they'll be able to assemble that much land for redevelopment next to the Broadway Line stations.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by whatnext

"Getting your tenants out".

The problem with Broadway Plan in a nutshell.

It's only a problem if for some reason you didn't know you needed to issue a 4 month notice to end tenancy in advance of starting a project.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by whatnext

"Getting your tenants out".

The problem with Broadway Plan in a nutshell.

Which is which Stewart's council mandated that all tenants needed to be rehoused by the developer (and allowed to move back in).

[logan5]

I wonder if the new city council is willing to bend a lot on the DTES plan. It needs to happen imo, if we want some positive change in the area.

Within a two city block radius of the intersection of East Hastings Street and Glen Drive, a total of five secured market rental housing and social housing proposals — including four tower-based projects — are in the process of being considered by the City of Vancouver.

This past summer, City Council gave the green light to City staff to accept and review formal rezoning applications for five different sites.

Three sites are being pursued by Westbank, while the remaining two sites are by Onni Group. All five sites combined could potentially generate as many as nearly 1,000 units of market rental housing and social housing.

Such a pre-approval was a necessary step under City Council’s new Policy Enquiry Process, which directs City staff to send non-compliant proposals for City Council’s ultimate determination.

Building heights and densities in excess of what is permitted under the City’s Downtown Eastside (DTES) Plan are proposed for four of these sites. In some cases, the proposed building heights are more than double the limitations of the area plan, and the proposed densities are nearly up to triple the policy maximum.

More...

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/westbank...et-downtown-eastside-vancouver?auto=true

[hollywoodnorth]

Originally Posted by logan5

I wonder if the new city council is willing to bend a lot on the DTES plan. It needs to happen imo, if we want some positive change in the area.


More...

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/westbank...et-downtown-eastside-vancouver?auto=true

I will bet a round of Costco hot dogs for all Vancouver SSPers they will.

this is an exciting situation with Westbank and Onni going all in on these 5 sites. major props to them

[WarrenC12]

Chip Wilson backed ABC financially and his corp holds a lot of land in the DTES area.