2022 Ottawa Municipal Election

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by rocketphish

Ottawa, however, isn’t a town that loves tight-fistedness.

This endorsement must have been written out of Toronto.

[Marshsparrow]

I have a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach... we will screw this up like remember when we could have had Alex Munter and ended up with Larry OBrien... le sigh

[Marshsparrow]

Predictions?

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

I have a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach... we will screw this up like remember when we could have had Alex Munter and ended up with Larry OBrien... le sigh

I'm on the fence but I have same feeling. I thought McKenney was running away with it for a little while but as people started to focus I think it's tightened and the less vocal but higher turning out older and more suburban crowd might end up giving Sutcliffe the win.

Haven't voted yet and still not sure where I'll land.

[SL123]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Predictions?

According to polls, undecided have been breaking towards Mark Sutcliffe in bigger number as the campaign progressed. McKenney started high but kind of plateaued. Given that and the demographics of McKenney's base I wouldn't be surprised if Stutcliffe wins tonight. the safest bet is to say that its going to be tight.

[Marshsparrow]

I suspect that Bob C supporters will break and support Mark S in larger #s.

[Aylmer]

It would appear the undecideds are actually slightly favouring McKenney, if polls are to be believed. Their margin increased from +2 to +4 between the latest Mainstreet polls.

I think that everything that could go right for McKenney in terms of turnout today, is. The weather is very good, which is conducive to higher turnout for younger voters, the GOTV ground game seems extensive, and anecdotally, the polls in the inner wards are busy. This adds to very high turnout in the advanced polls, especially in those same inner wards. Even one of the mayoral candidates has endorsed McKenney today.

In a tight race, these marginal factors add up. I give McKenney the edge

[Proof Sheet]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

I suspect that Bob C supporters will break and support Mark S in larger #s.

https://bulldogottawa.com/bob-chiare...s-dominated-t/

I could have sworn Bob was going to win it. Are you inferring that the Bulldog's reader base doesn't represent the overall City ?

[SL123]

Originally Posted by Aylmer

It would appear the undecideds are actually slightly favouring McKenney, if polls are to be believed. Their margin increased from +2 to +4 between the latest Mainstreet polls.

I think that everything that could go right for McKenney in terms of turnout today, is. The weather is very good, which is conducive to higher turnout for younger voters, the GOTV ground game seems extensive, and anecdotally, the polls in the inner wards are busy. This adds to very high turnout in the advanced polls, especially in those same inner wards. Even one of the mayoral candidates has endorsed McKenney today.

In a tight race, these marginal factors add up. I give McKenney the edge

Mainstreet poll had McKenney at 34% Sutcliffe at 14% and undecided at 37% in July.

The latest poll from Mainstreet (oct 19) has Mckenney at 36 Sutcliffe at 32 and undecided at 14%. Seems to me that undecided are going to Sutcliffe in bigger number.

[J.OT13]

Ottawa Centre consistently has one of, if not the highest voter turnout in Federal and Provincial elections, so that may put McKenney over the edge, but we need Chiarelli supporters to show up.

On Council, I think Darouze (bullies constituents, drives while texting and Zooming) has the best chance of getting defeated, followed by Hubley (botched transit) and Curry (not as much name recognition).

I'm worried about Gower. He may be too level headed and reasonable for Stittsville. Same with Luloff in Orleans. Brockington was on the bubble in 2018, but I think he's done enough to win handily this time. Doesn't help his competition isn't as fierce as far as I can tell.

Rest of them have solid job security, for better or worse.

In Wards with no incumbents, I have no idea. News coverage was garbage for those races. Too much focus on the Mayoral race.

Post election predictions - if McKenney wins, they will have trouble herding the sheep to get their program through unless we end up with a solid amount of progressive Councillors, which is plausible. If it's Sutcliffe, he'll open where Watson left off by stacking Committees in his favour, appointing car centric suburban and rural Councillors to powerful positions.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by SL123

Mainstreet poll had McKenney at 34% Sutcliffe at 14% and undecided at 37% in July.

The latest poll from Mainstreet (oct 19) has Mckenney at 36 Sutcliffe at 32 and undecided at 14%. Seems to me that undecided are going to Sutcliffe in bigger number.

I don't know how much weight I would put onto Mainstreet polls. Not only do they typically favour conservative sides more than progressive ones (they had PCQ four points higher and QS three points lower throughout their QC polling) but it says a lot about how one pollster can really dictate the discourse of a campaign by being the only or most frequent in the field. I would like to think McKenney wins by five percentage points this evening but if Mainstreet thinks it'll be closer...

[Proof Sheet]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Ottawa Centre consistently has one of, if not the highest voter turnout in Federal and Provincial elections, so that may put McKenney over the edge, but we need Chiarelli supporters to show up.

On Council, I think Darouze (bullies constituents, drives while texting and Zooming) has the best chance of getting defeated, followed by Hubley (botched transit) and Curry (not as much name recognition).

I'm worried about Gower. He may be too level headed and reasonable for Stittsville. Same with Luloff in Orleans. Brockington was on the bubble in 2018, but I think he's done enough to win handily this time. Doesn't help his competition isn't as fierce as far as I can tell.

Rest of them have solid job security, for better or worse.

In Wards with no incumbents, I have no idea. News coverage was garbage for those races. Too much focus on the Mayoral race.

Post election predictions - if McKenney wins, they will have trouble herding the sheep to get their program through unless we end up with a solid amount of progressive Councillors, which is plausible. If it's Sutcliffe, he'll open where Watson left off by stacking Committees in his favour, appointing car centric suburban and rural Councillors to powerful positions.

Good analysis but most people don't pay much attention and go with name recognition unless their current councillor really screwed up and was an absolute disaster. It wouldn't surprise me if every incumbent gets back in but the first two you highlighted are at the biggest risk and DeRouze has a strong former candidate running against him.

If McKenney wins, I believe the sheep herding will be difficult.

Hubley has been ineffective and is a Watson toadie and promised two terms and this would be #4 but there were too many other candidates that would split the vote.

I can't see Gower losing. I've dealt with him a few times and found him level headed and reasonable and he can build consensus.

[ars]

CTV News calling it for Sutcliffe

[Harley613]

CBC just called it as well

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

I have a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach... we will screw this up like remember when we could have had Alex Munter and ended up with Larry OBrien... le sigh

Looks like the most accurate prediction.

CBC has called it for Sutcliffe.

[Acajack]

I am only partly surprised.

I thought McKenney would be at least closer than that.

Though all of my relatives who live in Ottawa were leaning Sutcliffe. (In spite of the fact that many weren't big fans of Watson, his mentor of sorts.)

Wondering is this isn't the urban vs. suburban/rural divide at play, or perhaps a repudiation of "woke" ideology. McKenney clearly being the "woke" candidate of choice.

Though perhaps there is some overlap between the two concepts.

[Truenorth00]

It's going to be a long 4 years....

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I am only partly surprised.

I thought McKenney would be at least closer than that.

Though all of my relatives who live in Ottawa were leaning Sutcliffe. (In spite of the fact that many weren't big fans of Watson, his mentor of sorts.)

Wondering is this isn't the urban vs. suburban/rural divide at play, or perhaps a repudiation of "woke" ideology. McKenney clearly being the "woke" candidate of choice.

Though perhaps there is some overlap between the two concepts.

Probably.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I am only partly surprised.

I thought McKenney would be at least closer than that.

Though all of my relatives who live in Ottawa were leaning Sutcliffe. (In spite of the fact that many weren't big fans of Watson, his mentor of sorts.)

Wondering is this isn't the urban vs. suburban/rural divide at play, or perhaps a repudiation of "woke" ideology. McKenney clearly being the "woke" candidate of choice.

Though perhaps there is some overlap between the two concepts.

Was interesting how things broke out. Prominent Liberals supported McKenney but I guess on city issues we are more conservative than you'd expect. Though he seems very centrist and far from an anti-wok candidate.

I voted for Sutcliffe but am also a bit disappointed at the same time. We do need some bold leadership I just wasn't convinced her boldness was what I was looking for.

[ponyboycurtis]

On the most basic level I find it weird that people would go for the person who doesn't have any direct city council experience going right into being the Mayor.

I respect the fact that Sutcliffe is Ottawa born and without knowing anything directly he is obviously an active member of the community no? That isn't inherently bad I suppose.

Status Quo is the way to go around here. Enjoy it Ottawa... You get exactly what you deserve.