Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by casper

Best option would be to expand what can be borrowed from an RRSP for a first time home buyer.

What if you cannot save enough for it to matter?

[casper]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

What if you cannot save enough for it to matter?

RRSP saving reduce your tax and grow tax free.

Honestly if your income is that low relative your expenses then you should be qualifying for social housing programs.

Perhaps you luck out on co-op housing.

I don't think we one solution that works for everyone. We need multiple solutions.

[Wigs]

We're talking about people or couples that can afford exorbitant market rate rents, but don't qualify for a mortgage even though the mortgage payments as SHH alluded to can be much less than currently paying.



And if you want to talk about lower income people that qualify for social or co-op housing, check out the wait list times, in years:

And this is just one regional example (2021 population: 477,941)

https://www.nrh.ca/applicants/wait-times-chart.shtml

[lio45]

I've witnessed banks being part of the problem so many times (including in my own case; actually, Canadian banks' unwillingness to lend has directly resulted in me demolishing some heritage buildings, permanently damaging the urban fabric for new surface parkings) that I would, if I were in charge, set up an alternative lender that would be governmental and that would be tasked with funding things that classic banks -- who are in business for ONE reason only, make money for their shareholders; they don't care how many people are homeless nor how many heritage buildings have to be demolished -- won't touch such as affordable SRO buildings and small-scale seniors' homes.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Wigs

We're talking about people or couples that can afford exorbitant market rate rents, but don't qualify for a mortgage even though the mortgage payments as SHH alluded to can be much less than currently paying.



And if you want to talk about lower income people that qualify for social or co-op housing, check out the wait list times, in years:

And this is just one regional example (2021 population: 477,941)

https://www.nrh.ca/applicants/wait-times-chart.shtml

Does it take into account that in a place like Niagara Falls, like half of the "Age 16-54" category will have changed categories (into the "Seniors" one) while they're still on the waiting list?

You're 36 years old. Wait time for an affordable unit in your "adult" category is 20 years. So you wait... and then, when you become 55, you are removed from that waiting list (after 19 years) and put at the bottom of the "seniors" list, where you have to begin anew your wait (of about 8 years)

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by lio45

Does it take into account that in a place like Niagara Falls, like half of the "Age 16-54" category will have changed categories (into the "Seniors" one) while they're still on the waiting list?

You're 36 years old. Wait time for an affordable unit in your "adult" category is 20 years. So you wait... and then, when you become 55, you are removed from that waiting list (after 19 years) and put at the bottom of the "seniors" list, where you have to begin anew your wait (of about 8 years)

riiiight? What a shit-show.

I have no idea. My friend told me one of her friends says the entire process is awful, that they have access to your bank account and everything.
The potential client: "I'm sorry, I'm poor already and in need of social housing, I don't need lectures on what to do with my hard earned money"

There's also people that work around the system. Had a coworker who's sister lived in a co-op. She moved out and he moved in because she knew someone in administration, skipping the multi year wait line. I don't know the current situation but He was paying less than market rent for a decent townhouse w/garage and small backyard built in the 90s that looked way better than most social housing.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by lio45

I've witnessed banks being part of the problem so many times (including in my own case; actually, Canadian banks' unwillingness to lend has directly resulted in me demolishing some heritage buildings, permanently damaging the urban fabric for new surface parkings) that I would, if I were in charge, set up an alternative lender that would be governmental and that would be tasked with funding things that classic banks -- who are in business for ONE reason only, make money for their shareholders; they don't care how many people are homeless nor how many heritage buildings have to be demolished -- won't touch such as affordable SRO buildings and small-scale seniors' homes.

Good job Canada!

Lio, can you start up a "building and loan" bank?
Canada could use a George Bailey character. That would be quite the legacy. Hundreds of people attaining home ownership because of you.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Wigs

riiiight? What a shit-show.

I have no idea. My friend told me one of her friends says the entire process is awful, that they have access to your bank account and everything.
The potential client: "I'm sorry, I'm poor already and in need of social housing, I don't need lectures on what to do with my hard earned money"

Not certain how it works in Ontario. In BC most social housing is managed by non-profit societies. Some are local and some are province wide. In a give city there are multiple operators each with their own process.

Originally Posted by Wigs

There's also people that work around the system. Had a coworker who's sister lived in a co-op. She moved out and he moved in because she knew someone in administration, skipping the multi year wait line. I don't know the current situation but He was paying less than market rent for a decent townhouse w/garage and small backyard built in the 90s that looked way better than most social housing.

That is the way Co-op works. Co-op is not social housing. Each co-op is self managed by the residents in the building. They can establish their own process for who gets in. It not intended to be centrally managed. The co-op is expected to bring in sufficient funds through rent to pay its expenses including any financing to build the building but nothing more.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by casper

RRSP saving reduce your tax and grow tax free.

Honestly if your income is that low relative your expenses then you should be qualifying for social housing programs.

Perhaps you luck out on co-op housing.

I don't think we one solution that works for everyone. We need multiple solutions.

When I got my first house in 2016, I was able to find a house I could qualify. Now, with the cost of housing, I would not be able to find something in my approved range. I was fortunate on how I got my down payment. Most out there would not have been so lucky, and if it weren't for that opportunity, I would not have had a down payment. I could still afford rent. So, I do feel that the down payment is a barrier to housing for some and needs to be addressed one of these days.

Originally Posted by lio45

I've witnessed banks being part of the problem so many times (including in my own case; actually, Canadian banks' unwillingness to lend has directly resulted in me demolishing some heritage buildings, permanently damaging the urban fabric for new surface parkings) that I would, if I were in charge, set up an alternative lender that would be governmental and that would be tasked with funding things that classic banks -- who are in business for ONE reason only, make money for their shareholders; they don't care how many people are homeless nor how many heritage buildings have to be demolished -- won't touch such as affordable SRO buildings and small-scale seniors' homes.

When I decided to get my first house, I first went to the the bank I have been dealing with for over 15 years. They gave me a low number that would not have seen me afford a house. I ended up going to a mortgage broker.

Banks are definitely the problem.

[casper]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

When I got my first house in 2016, I was able to find a house I could qualify. Now, with the cost of housing, I would not be able to find something in my approved range. I was fortunate on how I got my down payment. Most out there would not have been so lucky, and if it weren't for that opportunity, I would not have had a down payment. I could still afford rent. So, I do feel that the down payment is a barrier to housing for some and needs to be addressed one of these days.



When I decided to get my first house, I first went to the the bank I have been dealing with for over 15 years. They gave me a low number that would not have seen me afford a house. I ended up going to a mortgage broker.

Banks are definitely the problem.

Banks are weird. You would think they would view a long term custom as lower risk that deserves their best rate. It is weird how it never works out that way.

I have found credit unions far more in tune with their local customer base. That is one of the reasons Vancity credit union has done so well in Vancouver.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by casper

Banks are weird. You would think they would view a long term custom as lower risk that deserves their best rate. It is weird how it never works out that way.

I have found credit unions far more in tune with their local customer base. That is one of the reasons Vancity credit union has done so well in Vancouver.

Hence why I said banks are the problem.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by yaletown_fella

The median price in Niagara is still $200,000 higher than its January 2020 pre covid bubble price.

Yeah it's still pricey. Is there any Ontario market that is lower than its pre covid price?

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Yeah it's still pricey. Is there any Ontario market that is lower than its pre covid price?

Probably not............yet. As interest rates continue to rise, real wages fall, and a near ban on foreign ownership, house prices are plunging and all gains since COVID will be erased with 6 months and will continue to fall.

The great Canadian real estate Ponzi Scheme is over and we are heading into a full scale housing collapse that could see values plunge up to 50% or even more obviously in some areas much more than others with BC & Ontario being at the top of the list.

Housing and real estate {as BC has found out} is like a drug...........first you CHOOSE to take it to feel good and then you HAVE to take it to stop from feeling bad. Getting off this addiction can cause horrific pain and anguish but over the long term, the user will be much better off.

[casper]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Probably not............yet. As interest rates continue to rise, real wages fall, and a near ban on foreign ownership, house prices are plunging and all gains since COVID will be erased with 6 months and will continue to fall.

The great Canadian real estate Ponzi Scheme is over and we are heading into a full scale housing collapse that could see values plunge up to 50% or even more obviously in some areas much more than others with BC & Ontario being at the top of the list.

Housing and real estate {as BC has found out} is like a drug...........first you CHOOSE to take it to feel good and then you HAVE to take it to stop from feeling bad. Getting off this addiction can cause horrific pain and anguish but over the long term, the user will be much better off.

In parallel to this what we need to do is increase government spending on social housing and financing for co-op housing. That will avoid the impact on construction labour and address the issue we simply do not have sufficient housing in major Canadian cities.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by casper

Not certain how it works in Ontario. In BC most social housing is managed by non-profit societies. Some are local and some are province wide. In a give city there are multiple operators each with their own process.



That is the way Co-op works. Co-op is not social housing. Each co-op is self managed by the residents in the building. They can establish their own process for who gets in. It not intended to be centrally managed. The co-op is expected to bring in sufficient funds through rent to pay its expenses including any financing to build the building but nothing more.

In Niagara even the Co-operative housing is under the Niagara Region.
The application is on the same website for social housing, the one with the multi year waitlist. These co-ops contain low income people and those working class that can afford close to market rents, although still much less than the going rate of $1620/month for 1 bed, $1980/month for 2 bed apts in St. Catharines.

I'm not talking Manhattan style apartment cooperatives here.

[swimmer_spe]

One thing I can't help but think of is this is one more thing that could be blamed on the baby boomer generation. Hear me out.

If we follow what has happened with when the Baby Boomers entered various stages in life, the country kept up with them.
Need houses, people built houses.
Need jobs, people got more jobs.
Need retirement housing and nursing care..............

They are told they can stay in their home.
My grandparents, whom were part of the "greatest generation" all sold their houses and moved to condos or into a nursing home. They have all passed by now, but they did what was a smart thing - downsize and move to where care was available. There was space.

Now, there is no space for the aging boomers and they are stuck in our hospitals or still in their houses that they cannot maintain.
We did not keep up with that generation for this stage in their lives, and it is hurting everyone.

[Wigs]

Certainly it seems that way. Massive amounts of homes, apartments, old age homes were built in lock step with the needs of Canadians. Everyone that wanted a decent paying job could find one.

Now we're way behind on all types of housing as our country is growing very quickly in the 2020s.
We're now a country of 39 million if I'm not mistaken yet need a million plus units of housing built.

[whatnext]

LOL. Desi realtors be freakin' out. How overextended are they? Nothing says grassroots protest like well-dressed realtors and pre-printed signs.

EconomicWoes
@ManyBeenRinsed
Why is this realtor at the protest?!!!

He’s asking for a bailout?!! How many others here did the same?!?

Leveraged to their eyeballs and now begging for bailouts. Sit down!


https://twitter.com/ManyBeenRinsed/status/1579687262975315968

[casper]

Originally Posted by Wigs

In Niagara even the Co-operative housing is under the Niagara Region.
The application is on the same website for social housing, the one with the multi year waitlist. These co-ops contain low income people and those working class that can afford close to market rents, although still much less than the going rate of $1620/month for 1 bed, $1980/month for 2 bed apts in St. Catharines.

I'm not talking Manhattan style apartment cooperatives here.

That is weird (by BC standards). Here Co-op housing is typically more middle class. It is more a lifestyle choice. Decentralized. Who qualifies for a specific building is up to the resident board in the building.

We also have the "Manhattan" style co-ops here in BC. Where you buy a share of the building. They are very rare and were created before strata property become common. So these are grandfathers and I don't think it is legal to create new ones. I almost picked one of these up in Oak Bay years ago.

[Wigs]

casper, thanks for clarification