Austin | Block 185/Google Tower #2 | 594 Feet | 35 Floors | Complete

[We vs us]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

This only shows that Austin is not immune to the global downturn and I wouldn't be suprised if we see some of these upcoming tower proposals to be put on hold. The ones under construction and or about to start before the end of this year may be okay but I'd say we are probably done for a time when it comes to new towers.

I would bet that the ones that are 100% or mostly residential or hospitality will eventually move forward. And TBH, most of the stuff in the pipeline has that mix.

[H2O]

Maybe. But let's not forget that most of the proposed office towers were announced after the pandemic and the WFH phenomenon. I still think with the number of large office towers in the pipeline, the developers behind them are chasing one or more large prospective tenants that are making quiet inquiries. I don't think they would have invested so much time and money on entitlements and design proposals for purely speculative purposes in the current economy with uncertainties like WFH looming. Will all of them break ground in the next cycle? Maybe not, but my bet is that some will.

[paul78701]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

This only shows that Austin is not immune to the global downturn and I wouldn't be suprised if we see some of these upcoming tower proposals to be put on hold. The ones under construction and or about to start before the end of this year may be okay but I'd say we are probably done for a time when it comes to new towers.

This likely has more to do with their workforce being more remote than being about a potential downturn. There have been many predictions of a downturn, but it hasn't exactly come as predicted. Just take a look at the jobs numbers over the last few months. The economy is still adding a lot of jobs.

[lonewolf]

Originally Posted by paul78701

This likely has more to do with their workforce being more remote than being about a potential downturn. There have been many predictions of a downturn, but it hasn't exactly come as predicted. Just take a look at the jobs numbers over the last few months. The economy is still adding a lot of jobs.

I think two quarters of gdp contraction, stock market -25% YTD, 6 months of near double digit inflation and YoY negative real earnings growth are little more indicative of downturn than job openings IMHO

[Riverranchdrone]

Originally Posted by paul78701

This likely has more to do with their workforce being more remote than being about a potential downturn. There have been many predictions of a downturn, but it hasn't exactly come as predicted. Just take a look at the jobs numbers over the last few months. The economy is still adding a lot of jobs.

You are correct. The experts are pretty 50/50 that we are somehow in a recession. The economy is in great shape. Job growth has never been better in the history of the U.S.. We are a world leader again. Wages are up. Profits are up. The people talking about recession are basing it on greedy oil companies that are pretty much over inflating gas prices because of a war a half a world away. We are way better off as people and as a country than we were 2 to 3 years ago. With an economy this hot a recession is just a scare tactic.

[paul78701]

Originally Posted by lonewolf

I think two quarters of gdp contraction, stock market -25% YTD, 6 months of near double digit inflation and YoY negative real earnings growth are little more indicative of downturn than job openings IMHO

Huh? Jobs are everything. (Also, there's a difference between job openings and jobs added.) As long as everyone who wants a job can still get one, it's really very difficult to surmise that the economy is bad (or is about to get bad).

The most recent jobs report showed more than 200k jobs added, the one before showed more than 300k, before that 500k. Yes, that shows a slowdown, but it's one that is needed as inflation is high and could eventually cause a problem. Even with that slowdown, the job market is still *very* healthy at the moment. (Doesn't mean that can't change, but it hasn't yet despite all the predictions.)

The things that you mention aren't exactly good, but as of yet, they aren't affecting anyone's ability to get/switch jobs in any real way. That is most everyone's primary concern.

The stock market isn't the economy. It doesn't directly correlate to people's employment status. It is basically a predictor that is predicting that everything is going to go to hell. It's arguably behaving worse than it was when the covid shutdowns happened and during the 2008 housing debacle. That is crazy ridiculous. We aren't in any kind of crisis as we were during those times. Many of the people in the market are behaving like overly emotional teenagers throwing a tantrum. Nothing has gone to hell yet or has indicated that hell is definitely coming.

GDP is also a poor indicator of the health of the job market. Most people don't even understand it, let alone care about it while they are still gainfully employed. Inflation is what directly affects people and what they really care about (in addition to being employed), but it appears to have peaked. We don't fully know yet whether or not it's coming down, but there are some indications that it has started to. Oil and gas prices have been one of those indicators. As crazy as it is, inflation as high as it's been hasn't done as much damage as one would have expected. At least not yet. I'm very surprised by that, but that is what it is.

At any rate, I've gone on too long. We need a slow down to help with inflation, but a slowdown doesn't mean the economy is bad or that armageddon is coming. It doesn't mean that everyone is going to start losing their jobs. I've gotten the impression that some of the people calling for the economy to tank are actually rooting for it. Which, if they are rooting for that, is pretty shitty.

[paul78701]

Originally Posted by Riverranchdrone

You are correct. The experts are pretty 50/50 that we are somehow in a recession. The economy is in great shape. Job growth has never been better in the history of the U.S.. We are a world leader again. Wages are up. Profits are up. The people talking about recession are basing it on greedy oil companies that are pretty much over inflating gas prices because of a war a half a world away. We are way better off as people and as a country than we were 2 to 3 years ago. With an economy this hot a recession is just a scare tactic.

I wish oil and gas prices were as simple as blaming it on the greedy oil companies, but it just isn't. It's more complex than that. Greed in the the commodities market is a big factor. Those traders used the war as an excuse to bid up oil prices. Those prices eventually trickle down into gas prices. Also, there are supply and demand issues once it gets down to the consumer level. The economy suddenly opening up after covid really spiked the demand, which didn't help prices any.

[ILUVSAT]

Might we take this discussion to another or new thread? We've bogged down the thread regarding Block 185 with almost 20 consecutive posts having nothing to do with the tower.

[sewaneetigers]

Originally Posted by paul78701

I wish oil and gas prices were as simple as blaming it on the greedy oil companies, but it just isn't. It's more complex than that. Greed in the the commodities market is a big factor. Those traders used the war as an excuse to bid up oil prices. Those prices eventually trickle down into gas prices. Also, there are supply and demand issues once it gets down to the consumer level. The economy suddenly opening up after covid really spiked the demand, which didn't help prices any.

Watching football but I wanted to comment real quick. WIsh I could elucidate point better. Probably will later.

DOE and EB initiatives/regulations are the sole culprit, also directly influencing commodity markets. Economics 101 -- increased costs will be passed down. This has nothing to do with greed. Are higher grocery prices a result of greed?

Slight tangent, but background: EPA and DOE, and any administrative agency for that matter, do not have the authority to institute laws. This is explicitly expressed in Article 1 (section I, II, II).

Congress cannot unvest their legislative powers, as they have, creating extra legal avenues to bind Americans by law through unelected bureaucrats.

If greed played a part, oil and gas companies would be capitalizing on current conditions to supply the world with energy. Talk about padding the income statement(s) if they were able to. And greed isn't necessarily all bad - it harvests competition, increases innovation/investment, provides more access, and lowers prices. Overall, greed is bad. Depends on the context.

Domestic supply and demand issues stem from the regulatory constraints on o/g. What is our remedy? drain SPR, rely on OPEC, and partner with / buy energy from far more polluting countries.

[sewaneetigers]

Sail building last night
• Video Link

[KevinFromTexas]

Looks like the new lights are already burned out.

[bobbywest87]

Submitted a diagram for this one.

[KevinFromTexas]

That looks great.

[bobbywest87]

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

That looks great.

Thank you! I’m enjoying filling in the gaps on our diagram page.

[jake.robs]

Looking very nice! Excited to see it up in the diagram tomorrow.

[agsatx88]

Anyone know what this is a about? Right of way use permits to close sidewalks for "falling debris" at 601 W 2nd Street.

https://abc.austintexas.gov/public-s...rtyrsn=5002534

[StoOgE]

Falling ice perhaps?

I worked at 40 wall st and they had to close the sidewalk constantly in winter due to massive sheets of ice. The 'curve' could be causing issues

[H2O]

Originally Posted by StoOgE

Falling ice perhaps?

I worked at 40 wall st and they had to close the sidewalk constantly in winter due to massive sheets of ice. The 'curve' could be causing issues

If that were the case, the police or fire department could close the street on an emergency basis. They would not need to pull a permit first. Also, if ice was falling down the curve, it would land in the creek, not the street.

[Speculator]

Falling ice. I saw it happen.

[Riverranchdrone]

Wish it was because they were installing more lighting on the west side. They missed a big opportunity to light up that whole sail for advertising.