Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Obviously some jobs cannot be done at home... but actually, drones could be operated from anywhere with a satellite link....

Which is exactly why the RCAF is planning to locate the 3rd Canadian Space Division and the control centre for strategic level UAS in....Ottawa. Being able to locate anywhere, doesn't mean you actually should. They are slowly but surely learning that dual income families don't want to live in the middle of nowhere.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

That is a concern. But hey, they did it with manufacturing and everyone was happy with it, why not the WFH jobs too?

Because WFH jobs replaced manufacturing jobs. What's replacing WFH?

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

160,000+ people do, so, maybe that should not be ignored and brushed off so easily.
....
That is a fair point. However, for some people, they never need to go to an office. Those are the ones that this really would be a good fit for,

It is almost like you cannot imagine anyone doing something you don't like.

You seem to think I have something against Sudbury. I don't. I just think it's a ridiculous diversion to say we'll solve housing affordability by moving people from the GTA to Cartier or Smooth Rock Falls.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

So, in the GTA or Lower Mainland, what policy exists there that is causing this crisis?

After all this time in this forum and this thread you have no idea about the "yellow belt"?

http://www.mapto.ca/maps/2017/3/4/the-yellow-belt

You have to be trolling at this point....

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

More often than not, economic (re)development imperatives for struggling post-resource communities in remote northern parts of our provinces AND the national housing crisis, are going to be mutually exclusive endeavours.

In spite of what some people may want to think, it's not really a match just waiting to happen.

It's a bizarre Canadian fixation with trying to save places with no prospects. Let them die. It's cheaper than trying to sustain populations in these places and ensure high quality of life. It frees up resources to ensure that the regional centres in those places can be improved. Better to invest in Sudbury than trying to make Cartier vibrant.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

After all this time in this forum and this thread you bent no idea about the "yellow belt"?

http://www.mapto.ca/maps/2017/3/4/the-yellow-belt

You have to be trolling at this point....

Something, something, I keep repeating we should use land better.

I think maybe we should build supply where people want to live.

Maybe we could make better use of the land near where people want to live?

Or we could make better use of the land we have near places people actually want to live?

Oh, right, right.

Cartier. Smooth Rock Falls. Those are the solutions.

Just live here!

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Top of my head list:

London
Kitchener-Waterloo
Saint Catharines
Guelph
Cambridge
London
Chatham-Kent
Windsor
Kingston
Barrie
Sudbury
Newmarket

Fixed

Speaking of the biggest city of my region, Niagara, St. Catharines aka St. Kitts is undergoing a high-rise mini boom.
St. Catharines is currently ~ 137,000.

Two 21 storey apartment towers (356 units) have been built near the existing Highrise area off Glenridge Ave (near Denis Morris HS)

Downtown, an 18 storey (228 units) is under construction. Another 30 storey (276 units) is in planning stages as is a 37 storey (478 units) tower!

18 storey Clockzilla lol
Carlisle Square-228 units

30 storey in planning-88 James
88 James

There's been renewed energy in St. Catharines and downtown since Brock University moved their Arts programs downtown and revitalized old factory buildings into classrooms and studios, getting hundreds of students right in the core live/work/play.

Other huge projects revitalizing downtown are the First Ontario Performing Arts centre-home of the Niagara symphony with 2 performing halls plus a 1 screen indie movie theatre, and the 5,300 seat Meridian Centre arena (attracted big names like Elton John, and Seinfeld) and home to Niagara ice dogs (OHL), and River Lions (CEBL).

Meridian Centre arena (left) BrockU school of performing Arts (centre-right), First Ontario Performing Arts Centre (right)

St. Catharines also benefits being on the south shore of Lake Ontario, the newest and largest hospital in the region, the largest regional shopping mall (Pen Centre) and has close access to many wineries and craft breweries.
You know, amenities
And hopefully all day GO train service to downtown Toronto before the end of the decade!

Interesting in seeing developments occurring in Niagara region?
https://www.niagaradev.ca/

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's a bizarre Canadian fixation with trying to save places with no prospects. Let them die. It's cheaper than trying to sustain populations in these places and ensure high quality of life. It frees up resources to ensure that the regional centres in those places can be improved. Better to invest in Sudbury than trying to make Cartier vibrant.

A while ago I mentioned on here that I had some close relatives who were involved in economic development in the Acadian Peninsula of NE NB, a pretty depressed area.

They'd be frustrated at why employers would set up shop in southern Quebec and southern Ontario instead of their region, and of course cited lower costs as a huge competitive advantage they had.

I was fairly young back then, but even so I understood why that was the case, and much to their chagrin would always rattle off a whole bunch of obvious reasons why one would choose to set up shop somewhere in Greater Montreal or Greater Toronto, as opposed to Greater Caraquet or Greater Tracadie.

Sure you have to spend more to be there, but you also get more by being there.

It's sad because I have roots in the area and want it to succeed, but I can't help but think that a lot of people in "regional" parts of Canada have a "hail mary" or "holy grail" approach to economic development.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Acajack

A while ago I mentioned on here that I had some close relatives who were involved in economic development in the Acadian Peninsula of NE NB, a pretty depressed area.

They'd be frustrated at why employers would set up shop in southern Quebec and southern Ontario instead of their region, and of course cited lower costs as a huge competitive advantage they had.

I was fairly young back then, but even so I understood why that was the case, and much to their chagrin would always rattle off a whole bunch of obvious reasons why one would choose to set up shop somewhere in Greater Montreal or Greater Toronto, as opposed to Greater Caraquet or Greater Tracadie.

Sure you have to spend more to be there, but you also get more by being there.

It's sad because I have roots in the area and want it to succeed, but I can't help but think that a lot of people in "regional" parts of Canada have a "hail mary" or "holy grail" approach to economic development.

Here on Vancouver Island (and BC more generally) a lot of the economic development is focused on incubators.

For the tech sector, that means creating the environment and the support network (training, mentorship, export development etc.) for people to create startups. Many will fail, some will be successful.

During the COVID period the province dumped a lot of money into food industry incubators. That includes the standard stuff, plus shared industrial kitchens that a startup could use.

Chasing after industry from another region is a zero sum game for Canada as a country.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by casper

Here on Vancouver Island (and BC more generally) a lot of the economic development is focused on incubators.

For the tech sector, that means creating the environment and the support network (training, mentorship, export development etc.) for people to create startups. Many will fail, some will be successful.

During the COVID period the province dumped a lot of money into food industry incubators. That includes the standard stuff, plus shared industrial kitchens that a startup could use.

Chasing after industry from another region is a zero sum game for Canada as a country.

Incubators are smart. Buffalo for example had virtually no tech sector before the 43 North incubator/accelerator program and annual startup competition. Now they've clustered a bunch of tech startups in the same revitalized tower as M&T Bank's new technology "campus". Hopefully this spurs more growth in IT, Fin tech, and startups.
https://www.43north.org/

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

They'd be frustrated at why employers would set up shop in southern Quebec and southern Ontario instead of their region, and of course cited lower costs as a huge competitive advantage they had.

I was fairly young back then, but even so I understood why that was the case, and much to their chagrin would always rattle off a whole bunch of obvious reasons why one would choose to set up shop somewhere in Greater Montreal or Greater Toronto, as opposed to Greater Caraquet or Greater Tracadie.

It's even tougher in the post-industrial age. Despite the fantasies of WFH anywhere, most tech companies set up in large cities. And even pay premium for the office space to do it. Why? Access to talent. How many developers or data scientists can I get in a 100 km radius of Toronto vs. 100 km radius of North Bay?

Improving intercity transportation can help. For example, HSR could make Ottawa and Montreal a single employment market, making them almost competitive with the GTA. But it isn't going to make North Bay suddenly more attractive to employers.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's even tougher in the post-industrial age. Despite the fantasies of WFH anywhere, most tech companies set up in large cities. And even pay premium for the office space to do it. Why? Access to talent. How many developers or data scientists can I get in a 100 km radius of Toronto vs. 100 km radius of North Bay?

Improving intercity transportation can help. For example, HSR could make Ottawa and Montreal a single employment market, making them almost competitive with the GTA. But it isn't going to make North Bay suddenly more attractive to employers.

Great points. If only we'd accelerate development of Japanese Shinkansen or even Korean style high speed rail. It's bonkers to think North America had faster trains around the 1930s.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Great points. If only we'd accelerate development of Japanese Shinkansen or even Korean style high speed rail. It's bonkers to think North America had faster trains around the 1930s.

I hate the way any discussion of improving intercity rail in North America is always portrayed as replacements for car or airplane trips. Nobody seems to understand what it does to the mental geography of people who live there and the second order effects of that on the economy.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It's sad because I have roots in the area and want it to succeed, but I can't help but think that a lot of people in "regional" parts of Canada have a "hail mary" or "holy grail" approach to economic development.

That's a lot of resource hinterland, alas.

The attitude that something will magically rescue the: fishery, paper mill, mine, outdated industrial employer.

It doesn't work because towns of only thousands of people just don't have the depth or scale to diversify. Towns that have a renewable resource (farming and large enough scale forestry) will maintain, but others are just trickled enough support by government to make the scaling down slightly less awful.

Maybe some manufacturing comes back, but even then, being outside the supply chain corridor is simply too much of an ask for most industries. It's one thing to be Brockville along the 401 a couple hours from Toronto, but another to be Flin Flon, MB.

Maybe Elliot Lake, ON-style retirement community is a potential temporary fallback scenario. The hard bit is that the kids have often left permanently, so sticking it out gets harder without that network of support.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Oh, right, right.

Cartier. Smooth Rock Falls. Those are the solutions.

Just live here!

The person who wrote that listing clearly hit the "0" key one extra time by mistake.

[lio45]

... or else they thought the building they're tasked with selling is located in Cartierville (a borough of Montreal). That's the other possibility.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

It is almost like you cannot imagine anyone doing something you don't like.

Correct, I have a very hard time imagining anyone deliberately saving grocery money by starting to eat dog food

[goodgrowth]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Ummm plenty of 100k+ places within 4 hr drive of the GTA.

Right but that wasn't the only criteria I was talking about.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I hate the way any discussion of improving intercity rail in North America is always portrayed as replacements for car or airplane trips. Nobody seems to understand what it does to the mental geography of people who live there and the second order effects of that on the economy.

I don't think that way at all. I want to move people faster from point A to point B, whether it be higher speed subways or true TGV/Shinkansen style. Give people options.

If GO Train can get even 160 km/hr speeds with future electric trains and track/signaling upgrades in the future I'd be impressed.

There's no reason Via rail couldn't upgrade to faster trains with improved track/signaling.

Right now Canada's trains are pathetic. We're approaching 40M citizens and still act like the size of a country we were 40-50 years ago.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

After all this time in this forum and this thread you have no idea about the "yellow belt"?

http://www.mapto.ca/maps/2017/3/4/the-yellow-belt

You have to be trolling at this point....

I am not trolling. I have never heard of Yellow Belt before this. I have heard of Green Belt before. Reading the link, I now understand what it is. It should be fixed, but how do you fix it without destroying the appealing reasons to live there? For a good example, get rid of the zoning and you might end up with soviet era blocks. That is the other end of the same extreme. Thank you for teaching me something.

Originally Posted by casper

Here on Vancouver Island (and BC more generally) a lot of the economic development is focused on incubators.

For the tech sector, that means creating the environment and the support network (training, mentorship, export development etc.) for people to create startups. Many will fail, some will be successful.

During the COVID period the province dumped a lot of money into food industry incubators. That includes the standard stuff, plus shared industrial kitchens that a startup could use.

Chasing after industry from another region is a zero sum game for Canada as a country.

Funny thing is, Northern ON is taking stuff away from Vancouver. The film industry in Northern ON is booming. In fact, a lot of those cheezy Hallmark films are filmed in North Bay. There may come a point where filmmakers move north to be where the work is.

Another fun fact, Kapuskasing is a proving ground for a variety of auto manufacturers..

Originally Posted by thewave46

That's a lot of resource hinterland, alas.

The attitude that something will magically rescue the: fishery, paper mill, mine, outdated industrial employer.

It doesn't work because towns of only thousands of people just don't have the depth or scale to diversify. Towns that have a renewable resource (farming and large enough scale forestry) will maintain, but others are just trickled enough support by government to make the scaling down slightly less awful.

Maybe some manufacturing comes back, but even then, being outside the supply chain corridor is simply too much of an ask for most industries. It's one thing to be Brockville along the 401 a couple hours from Toronto, but another to be Flin Flon, MB.

Maybe Elliot Lake, ON-style retirement community is a potential temporary fallback scenario. The hard bit is that the kids have often left permanently, so sticking it out gets harder without that network of support.

That is why my suggestions aren't to actually move any industry to anywhere, but instead, make it appealing to those that just want a cheaper place to live.

Originally Posted by lio45

The person who wrote that listing clearly hit the "0" key one extra time by mistake.

The funny part is... that will sell at that price.

The reason you are seeing it so high is simply because of lack of supply. Pre covid, I could see that listed for around $75k. It would be interesting to see how long it is on the market for and how much it sells for.

Originally Posted by lio45

Correct, I have a very hard time imagining anyone deliberately saving grocery money by starting to eat dog food

Well, thank goodness Canadians are not as narrow minded as you are.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Wigs

I don't think that way at all. I want to move people faster from point A to point B, whether it be higher speed subways or true TGV/Shinkansen style. Give people options.

If GO Train can get even 160 km/hr speeds with future electric trains and track/signaling upgrades in the future I'd be impressed.

There's no reason Via rail couldn't upgrade to faster trains with improved track/signaling.

Right now Canada's trains are pathetic. We're approaching 40M citizens and still act like the size of a country we were 40-50 years ago.

There is a sound reason - profit.

CN and CP are not welcoming to Via. Change that and our country could have better intercity rail.

[swimmer_spe]

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toron...-real-estate-market-facing-major-crisis/

"Experts say the Toronto Real Estate Market is Facing a Major Crisis"

The report underscores what experts have been shouting from the rooftops for years: a critically short supply of housing inventory requires immediate action from politicians.

According to the inventory report, supply levels in major Canadian housing markets have dwindled for years, citing active listings in July running below the 10-year average across almost all markets surveyed.

It's a reversal of the trend seen in the decade before, with Toronto registering a July 10-year average of 21,243 active listings in the years from 2003 to 2012, versus the 16,458 July average for the decade of 2013-2022.

"Supply was far more robust in the early 2000s in centres such as Greater Vancouver, the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton-Burlington," according to Christopher Alexander, President, RE/MAX Canada.

"Population growth and household formation have played a significant role in depleting inventory levels from coast to coast over the most recent decade, triggering chronic housing shortages in large urban centres that resulted in mini 'boom' and 'bust' cycles."