Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by niwell

I've been to Cartier (through work). There are very good reasons that people wouldn't want to move there, and that it's no longer even a town but rather an unincorporated part of the province. Rural parts of Eastern Ontario are far, far less remote.

True, but there are pockets of Eastern Ontario that are a lot more remote than you'd think.

Take Ompah, Ontario, where one of my close friends moved to last year. As the crow flies, its basically in between Ottawa and Toronto (the flight path is almost directly overhead). The village has maybe 100 people, and only a very small overpriced convenience store. The nearest grocery store and the nearest pharmacy are a 45 minute drive away, in Sharbot Lake. The nearest community with more than 1,000 people is Perth, 1 hour drive away, also the location of the nearest hospital. The nearest actual city is Kingston, 1.5 hours away.

Its not remote by Cartier standards, but its pretty isolated for somewhere in Southern Ontario. There's a lot of areas in eastern Ontario that are similar. I don't think anywhere in southwestern Ontario gets that remote, but maybe I'm wrong.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

There has been a trickle of people moving to pretty rural areas. The remote pockets of Eastern Ontario (which are actually a lot more isolated than you'd think) are currently having a much more active real estate market than ever before and there's been an unprecedented boom in building permits being issued in places like Plevna and Kaladar. Many of these municipalities recorded double digit growth in the 2021 census after decades of decline.

I'm not saying it isn't happening.

I'm saying that one can move to Cartier, ON if they want to, but people seemingly don't despite being cheap.

There's some sort of belief that a tiny town plunked 60km north of Sudbury is anything other than a fringe destination for a handful of people. There's literally more appealing places not that far down the road: Onaping, Dowling, and Chelmsford that aren't so blindingly expensive as to be unobtainable and actually have things that might be useful (stores, schools, municipal services, employment) to people who do things other than stay on their property all the time.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

The best decade appears to have been ~1996-2006

[casper]

Originally Posted by niwell

I've been to Cartier (through work). There are very good reasons that people wouldn't want to move there, and that it's no longer even a town but rather an unincorporated part of the province. Rural parts of Eastern Ontario are far, far less remote.

In Eastern Ontario you don't even need to be in the middle on country. You can get a house in a reasonable sized town for what a down payment is in Toronto.

This is one example: https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24623589/9-hillcrest-avenue-deep-river-central-deep-river

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by someone123

The land that matters isn't the stuff in far-flung northern towns, it's the areas near existing cities where development is banned or which could be developed given infrastructure that is not built for political reasons. Then there's the question of zoned buildable space which is basically equivalent to the land supply.

Our crappy long-distance travel system (terrible trains, bogged down and expensive air travel, mediocre highways with huge congestion around cities) also impacts how much people want to move out of region.

The problem is the high cost of it prevents it from being used as much as it should be.

As far as crappy transportation, you are right. Imagine if we invested in our non road services, we might make living somewhere like Cartier reasonable. Mind you, it is actually served by a train 3x a week, so it does have that.

Originally Posted by thewave46

…and yet they don’t.

Weird, huh?

That is why housing costs across Canada have skyrocketed. People who could move have. By opening up land around rural areas that are not close to the major cities would mean that you could get it for a low price, and you might be able to build your dream home. The average price of a Toronto house is around $1 million. For half that, you could build a 4+ bedroom home with a garage. I always tell people that my home with property on a lake, add a zero behind it for anything within 2 hours of the CN tower. For certain southern ON lakes, add 2 zeros. So,imagine someone making ~ $100k moves here because they can afford to. If their spouse has a trade, they could easily work here too. And they aren't house poor.

The problem we need to fix is the overall supply in Canada.

Originally Posted by niwell

I've been to Cartier (through work). There are very good reasons that people wouldn't want to move there, and that it's no longer even a town but rather an unincorporated part of the province. Rural parts of Eastern Ontario are far, far less remote.

Define Remote.
It is an hour's drive to an airport with a short flight to Toronto.
It has a train station that is active.
It is served by intercity bus.
It is on a major highway, albeit, 2 lane

So, what is remote about it?

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

The problem is the high cost of it prevents it from being used as much as it should be.

As far as crappy transportation, you are right. Imagine if we invested in our non road services, we might make living somewhere like Cartier reasonable. Mind you, it is actually served by a train 3x a week, so it does have that.
...
That is why housing costs across Canada have skyrocketed. People who could move have. By opening up land around rural areas that are not close to the major cities would mean that you could get it for a low price, and you might be able to build your dream home. The average price of a Toronto house is around $1 million. For half that, you could build a 4+ bedroom home with a garage. I always tell people that my home with property on a lake, add a zero behind it for anything within 2 hours of the CN tower. For certain southern ON lakes, add 2 zeros. So,imagine someone making ~ $100k moves here because they can afford to. If their spouse has a trade, they could easily work here too. And they aren't house poor.

The problem we need to fix is the overall supply in Canada.
...
Define Remote.
It is an hour's drive to an airport with a short flight to Toronto.
It has a train station that is active.
It is served by intercity bus.
It is on a major highway, albeit, 2 lane

So, what is remote about it?

Building supply in remote areas does nothing to fix the problems of millions of Canadians who do not want to live in these areas for whatever reason. There are dozens of overbuilt, but declining towns scattered along Highway 11/17 in Ontario.

If people from southern Ontario have problems with living in Sudbury (and lots do), Cartier - 60km north of it and with exactly two amenities (I guess you can drink your problems away because there's an LCBO) - is a non starter. The fact it has 'a highway, a joke of rail service, and a bus' is about as good a reason for watching a movie because it is 'in focus, has a plot, and actors'.

The solution to build Soviet-esqe towns and cities in the middle of nowhere and forcibly deport people there, 'cause they sure aren't going by their own free will is a bad one.

I think maybe we should build supply where people want to live. Strange concept, I know.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Define Remote.
It is an hour's drive to an airport with a short flight to Toronto.
It has a train station that is active.
It is served by intercity bus.
It is on a major highway, albeit, 2 lane

So, what is remote about it?

Okay, so you build you dream home in Cartier.


...Then what? Drive to Sudbury for work? Does your job exist there?

Drive to Sudbury for all your shopping?

Drive to Sudbury for all your fun?

After the third weekend when you've hit up every bar in town, then what? Diehard Wolves fan or nothing?

Start taking that convenient one hour flight to Toronto for all of the above? How does that balance with your cheap cost of living?

How often do your friends come see you in Cartier after you've left them all in Southern Ontario?

Maybe this works for 1000 people. Cartier quintuples overnight!


Housing crisis solved then?

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Building supply in remote areas does nothing to fix the problems of millions of Canadians who do not want to live in these areas for whatever reason. There are dozens of overbuilt, but declining towns scattered along Highway 11/17 in Ontario.

If people from southern Ontario have problems with living in Sudbury (and lots do), Cartier - 60km north of it and with exactly two amenities (I guess you can drink your problems away because there's an LCBO) - is a non starter. The fact it has 'a highway, a joke of rail service, and a bus' is about as good a reason for watching a movie because it is 'in focus, has a plot, and actors'.

The solution to build Soviet-esqe towns and cities in the middle of nowhere and forcibly deport people there, 'cause they sure aren't going by their own free will is a bad one.

I think maybe we should build supply where people want to live. Strange concept, I know.

So, pave all the prime farmland and eat what?

There is no forcing involved, but for those that would want to do this, it would be a good idea.

Originally Posted by jonny24

Okay, so you build you dream home in Cartier.


...Then what? Drive to Sudbury for work? Does your job exist there?

Drive to Sudbury for all your shopping?

Drive to Sudbury for all your fun?

After the third weekend when you've hit up every bar in town, then what? Diehard Wolves fan or nothing?

Start taking that convenient one hour flight to Toronto for all of the above? How does that balance with your cheap cost of living?

How often do your friends come see you in Cartier after you've left them all in Southern Ontario?

Maybe this works for 1000 people. Cartier quintuples overnight!


Housing crisis solved then?

First off, the idea is for those that can work form anywhere with an internet connection. So, no commuting whatsoever.

As far as things to do, My long list of things are things that in Toronto I cannot do. for example, atving and snowmobiling. Then there are things like fishing and hunting. Obviously, this is not for everyone. Just like I would never want to live in the GTA. Been there and glad I got out.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by jonny24

Okay, so you build you dream home in Cartier.


...Then what? Drive to Sudbury for work? Does your job exist there?

Drive to Sudbury for all your shopping?

Drive to Sudbury for all your fun?

Makes me glad to be 30 minutes to Buffalo and 45 minutes to Hamilton and 90 or so minutes to Toronto.

1 hour to Sudbury as the largest city.

To each their own.
A lot of people fish and hunt and hike (escarpment) in Niagara. You don't have to go to more remote parts of Ontario for that

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

There is no forcing involved, but for those that would want to do this, it would be a good idea.

This is literally my argument:

As far as I know, there is absolutely no reason someone can't move to Cartier right now from Toronto as I type this sentence.

Right now. Driving up Highway 400. It's rush hour, so it might be slow for a bit. Get a cheap house. Enjoy the lifestyle.

Yet, the crickets are deafening.

My theory: Maybe it sucks (for whatever reason) and people don't want to?

Curse rational people are their free will!

So, I don't see what a bunch of newly-built houses in Cartier will accomplish.

Maybe we could make better use of the land near where people want to live?

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by thewave46

This is literally my argument:

As far as I know, there is absolutely no reason someone can't move to Cartier right now from Toronto as I type this sentence.

Right now. Driving up Highway 400. It's rush hour, so it might be slow for a bit. Get a cheap house. Enjoy the lifestyle.

Yet, the crickets are deafening.

My theory: Maybe it sucks (for whatever reason) and people don't want to?

Curse rational people are their free will!

So, I don't see what a bunch of newly-built houses in Cartier will accomplish.

Maybe we could make better use of the land near where people want to live?

Right now, houses do not stay on the market around here as long as they did pre covid. While that maybe a good thing, it does highlight that even here there is a low supply. So, that is where this idea comes from. If I were wrong, then housing prices wouldn't have doubled around here. If I were wrong, the properties would be staying on the market longer than a few days. Prove me wrong. The metrics are on my side.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Right now, houses do not stay on the market around here as long as they did pre covid. While that maybe a good thing, it does highlight that even here there is a low supply. So, that is where this idea comes from. If I were wrong, then housing prices wouldn't have doubled around here. If I were wrong, the properties would be staying on the market longer than a few days. Prove me wrong. The metrics are on my side.

Great, then what does it matter? Do we need a solution?

Let Cartier boom.

[WarrenC12]

You guys made me check out Cartier on google maps so I know what you're talking about.

WOOOF.

And yeah, we have great freedom of movement rights here in Canada. Fill your boots!

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Great, then what does it matter? Do we need a solution?

Let Cartier boom.

The problem is that the land is not owned by developers. It is crown land. The other thing is, it is more profitable for developers to develop prime farmland. The solution to the housing crisis is to throw maximum profitability out the window. Of course, make a profit, but not as much as normal.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

The problem is that the land is not owned by developers. It is crown land. The other thing is, it is more profitable for developers to develop prime farmland. The solution to the housing crisis is to throw maximum profitability out the window. Of course, make a profit, but not as much as normal.

Great. A developer can talk to the province regarding developing Cartier, if the masses are crying for houses there.

My theory is that there’s just not the demand, so it is a waste of time and otherwise valuable resources.

Or we could make better use of the land we have near places people actually want to live?

Cartier has never been more talked about on here though.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

You guys made me check out Cartier on google maps so I know what you're talking about.

WOOOF.

And yeah, we have great freedom of movement rights here in Canada. Fill your boots!

It makes Hanna, Ab look like New York City.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Define Remote.
It is an hour's drive to an airport with a short flight to Toronto.
It has a train station that is active.
It is served by intercity bus.
It is on a major highway, albeit, 2 lane

So, what is remote about it?

You have to take a flight whenever you want to go to civilization, but you don’t see what’s remote about the place?!?!?

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Great. A developer can talk to the province regarding developing Cartier, if the masses are crying for houses there.

My theory is that there’s just not the demand, so it is a waste of time and otherwise valuable resources.

Or we could make better use of the land we have near places people actually want to live?

Cartier has never been more talked about on here though.

There isn't a demand because there isn't much there because it is off the radar of many people.

For the idea of better use, SFH needs to stop being built within 100km of any major city. SFH is a detriment for the ability to house all that want to be there.

Originally Posted by lio45

You have to take a flight whenever you want to go to civilization, but you don’t see what’s remote about the place?!?!?

Define civilization.
At least the local hockey team can get to the championships....

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

There isn't a demand because there isn't much there because it is off the radar of many people.

Oh, I see. Cartier is just not thriving because nobody knows about it. Of course. Obviously the locals shun it for the same reasons. They don't know about it.

It's not because it's a tiny village abutting a lightly used highway with a grand total of two stores 30-50km north of a city that many consider 'in the boonies' already. Or that it lacks any major employer, school, or amenities.

It's the lack of national recognition, obviously. If I was moving to the Sudbury area and wanted a little extra space on my lot, I'd ignore the Valley, Azilda, Chelmsford, Garson, Coniston, Dowling, Azilda, most of the city itself and head up to Cartier.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Cartier has never been more talked about on here though.

It’s the new Okotoks, except there isn’t a number of things to do in Cartier