YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by wabooba

It seemed to me that AC wanted everything from Canada to GRU to fly out of YYZ or YUL, because they are a lot closer to GRU than YVR. I hope I'm wrong, but YVR-GRU seems like a pipe dream.

Its also a lot easier to connect those people to Europe from those cities. The europe/Latin America is much bigger than Asia/Latin America so makes sense for AC to keep them there.
If they need to connect to Asia, Toronto does have most major Asian cities covered too.

[wabooba]

Originally Posted by Zmonkey

Its also a lot easier to connect those people to Europe from those cities. The europe/Latin America is much bigger than Asia/Latin America so makes sense for AC to keep them there.
If they need to connect to Asia, Toronto does have most major Asian cities covered too.

Yes, I can see why that would keep YVR out of the running for a SA connection. Nevertheless, I thought that the major Europe-South America transfer point was Miami, but YYZ makes sense too. A YVR - SA flight seems less and less and less likely, but I still hope for it, one day.

[ninjakafi_81]

Originally Posted by wabooba

Yes, I can see why that would keep YVR out of the running for a SA connection. Nevertheless, I thought that the major Europe-South America transfer point was Miami, but YYZ makes sense too. A YVR - SA flight seems less and less and less likely, but I still hope for it, one day.

Although it seems quite unlikely we'll be getting a South America route anytime soon, I will stay quite hopeful. Didn't YVR have a route to LIM in the past ?

With a handful of 787-9's on order, maybe with the extra aircrafts it will allow AC to start the long-awaited YVR - South America route.

[Denscity]

Let's remember the most recent additions like Fiji were also unlikely until they happened.
I am hopeful for a South American connection.

[wabooba]

Originally Posted by Denscity

Let's remember the most recent additions like Fiji were also unlikely until they happened.
I am hopeful for a South American connection.

Apparently, there is a lot of O&D traffic between Vancouver and Brazil, so perhaps AC will initiate a YVR-GRU flight. (Too bad there seems no way of lobbying for it).

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by ninjakafi_81

With a handful of 787-9's on order,

What handful? AC is getting 2 B787-9s next year. That's it. And some new routes have already been announced next year.

[ninjakafi_81]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

What handful? AC is getting 2 B787-9s next year. That's it. And some new routes have already been announced next year.

I always thought a handful meant just a few as their just getting 3 789's in the coming years.

[thenoflyzone]

What's happening with AC YVR-DEL? Did they push it back to March 2023? First it was supposed to resume on Sept 6. Then it got pushed back to Oct 1. Now the online timetables say Nov 9, but nothing seems to be bookable until March 25, 2023.

Originally Posted by ninjakafi_81

I always thought a handful meant just a few as their just getting 3 789's in the coming years.

It's 2. Otherwise known as "a couple".

Page 20.

https://filecache.investorroom.com/mr5ir...0Air%20Canada%20MD%26A%20-%20English.pdf

[nname]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

What's happening with AC YVR-DEL? Did they push it back to March 2023? First it was supposed to resume on Sept 6. Then it got pushed back to Oct 1. Now the online timetables say Nov 9, but nothing seems to be bookable until March 25, 2023.

Still bookable on AC/Google starting Oct 18.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by nname

Still bookable on AC/Google starting Oct 18.

I see. Thanks.

Weird that on AC's flight schedules, when you select YVR to DEL, AC44 shows up as the last choice. Usually the quickest itineraries are always on top. Probably why I missed it.

Wonder why they keep delaying the restart though...

[nname]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

I see. Thanks.

Weird that on AC's flight schedules, when you select YVR to DEL, AC44 shows up as the last choice. Usually the quickest itineraries are always on top. Probably why I missed it.

Wonder why they keep delaying the restart though...

The order for AC schedule is:
- non-stop flights, ordered by departure time
- all other flights, ordered by departure time

Everything else (codeshare, duration, number of stops or connections) doesn't matter.

So AC44 shows up last because it's not a non-stop flight, and it's the last departure of the day at 10pm.

[Calfan12]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

I see. Thanks.

Weird that on AC's flight schedules, when you select YVR to DEL, AC44 shows up as the last choice. Usually the quickest itineraries are always on top. Probably why I missed it.

Wonder why they keep delaying the restart though...

Air India Vancouver YVR- Delhi DEL flights is daily as of September 1 2022 & likely has more demand than AC YVR- DEL currently as AC (suspended it during the Summer).

That’s probably 1 of the reasons AC is delaying the restart for YVR- DEL until mid October.

[zahav]

The #1 reason isn't AI, it's Russia. The airspace closure is a huge deal for YVR, its effect can't be minimized. If it wasn't for that, AC would be operating the route now. AI's growth isn't the cause of AC delaying the route, it's the result of it.

WS has really been to the butcher shop with their winter schedules, damn. They are also really all over the place with their daily frequencies, to an extant not really seen before. Some routes will have one daily flight, and then one day two daily, then no flights the next day, then 4 flights in one day. Very haphazard.

Interesting item... This winter, WS will operate more weekly flights from YVR than from YYZ, so YVR will be their 2nd biggest hub in terms of # of departures (I haven't finished calculating YYCs departures, but they are far and away the #1 by all metrics so doesn't really matter lol). YYZ would likely still have more pax #s because while Encore got decimated at YYZ, they are still quite strong at YVR, as well as WS Link. But these are smaller aircraft, so assuming load factors are the same for YYZ and YVR routes, YYZ would carry more traffic due to more mainline there. But YVR hasn't seen more WS departures than YYZ since 2003, just before they moved their eastern hub from YHM to YYZ. The WS frequency updates have been so eratic lately, it's hard to follow just going off the articles. But I got the sense WS was chopping a lot of YYZ routes, so decided to actually do the math. And sure enough, they have fallen enough for YVR to have more weekly departures (albeit barely, 426 vs. 407 by my count). I could definitely have made errors, but I don't think the overall result would change.

By sector, YVR is now way ahead of YYZ in terms of deomestic flights. They have the same amount of transborder flights, but in this category, YVR actually has more mainline (they are 100% mainline on transborder ops, while YYZ has 3x weekly to BNA on Encore).

For international, it's no competition, YYZ's 88 flights vs. YVR's 36. No surprise at all here, since WS bases it's entire Carribean operation out of YYZ. So there's tons of once weekly, twice weekly, frequencies to more niche destinations (ie. Cozumel). But it all adds up, so they are king of international ops.

But overall, YVR will have more flights per week. Does anyone know in terms of # of flights, does AC operate more from YVR or YUL? Both cities have a lot of regional destinations, and a decent amount of US ops. YUL would lead in international, same as YYZ does for WS, but I'd be curious whether YVR or YUL have more weekly departures on AC. Maybe that'll be my Saturday project lol #spreadsheetsaturdays

[Klazu]

Yeah, airlines in several countries (Japan, Canada, all of Europe) are paying a hefty price for the Russian airspace closure. Airlines from countries outside of the sanctions are having a really good time by offering the most competitive package on several routes.

[wabooba]

Just statistics to ponder ...

The argument (or statement) that Asia flights bound for South America, (here, the destination is GRU and the departure point is Tokyo NRT.) are
better through YYZ due to the shorter total distances is only sometimes valid.
The total distances and the differences between them is, in this case, very small. Via YYZ the total distance in miles and km is 11489mi and 18490km.
Via YVR the distance is greater but by a total of 43mi or 69km.
Northeast Asian cities like ICN also show relatively minor distances between the two routes.
From Shanghai and Hong Kong, both considerably further south and to the "east" (or west, if going over the Pacific and not via Greenwich time), however, the YYZ route gets
progressively shorter in comparison with YVR correspondence. If this impacts significantly on fuel costs, then perhaps only NE Asia, Toko or Seoul as a departure point,
could be routed through YVR.
Dreaming, perhaps, but I think rather feasible nonetheless.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by nname

The order for AC schedule is:
- non-stop flights, ordered by departure time
- all other flights, ordered by departure time

Everything else (codeshare, duration, number of stops or connections) doesn't matter.

So AC44 shows up last because it's not a non-stop flight, and it's the last departure of the day at 10pm.

I see, thanks. That’s why I thought the route was resuming on March 25, 2023. It’s scheduled non stop from then on, and AC44 is on top.

I also use flightconnections.com a lot, and even it has trouble recognizing fuel stops, as the website says the route will resume only in March.

Originally Posted by wabooba

Just statistics to ponder ...

The argument (or statement) that Asia flights bound for South America, (here, the destination is GRU and the departure point is Tokyo NRT.) are
better through YYZ due to the shorter total distances is only sometimes valid.
The total distances and the differences between them is, in this case, very small. Via YYZ the total distance in miles and km is 11489mi and 18490km.
Via YVR the distance is greater but by a total of 43mi or 69km.
Northeast Asian cities like ICN also show relatively minor distances between the two routes.
From Shanghai and Hong Kong, both considerably further south and to the "east" (or west, if going over the Pacific and not via Greenwich time), however, the YYZ route gets
progressively shorter in comparison with YVR correspondence. If this impacts significantly on fuel costs, then perhaps only NE Asia, Toko or Seoul as a departure point,
could be routed through YVR.
Dreaming, perhaps, but I think rather feasible nonetheless.

You are correct, but here’s another thing to ponder.

YYZ-GRU, on its own, is near 3,000 km shorter than YVR-GRU. So if an Asian airline that currently serves both YYZ and YVR wants to extend its flight to South America, where do you think it’s more likely they will do it from?

Neither JL or NH serve YYZ, so YVR has an edge there, but neither seem really interested in sending their own metal to South America. I agree with nname, in that if an Asian carrier will go to South America from YVR, it will be a Chinese one. But I still think YVR’s best bet is AC to GRU or BOG. The extra distance vis a vis YYZ/YUL might eventually become worth it, once AC’s TPAC ops out of YVR expand to a certain level (with routes that aren’t available at YYZ.)

There’s a lot of challenges operating long haul north/south flights like these. Aircraft usage goes down the drain, as ideally, the plane will need to sit in GRU for 10-12 hours +, in order for the return flight to be timed for connections. AC doesn’t have wide bodies to spare to do that at the moment, unless they cut other routes.

[SpongeG]

In my social media feed ads this week I am getting loads of ads for Air Tahiti flying out of Seattle. Maybe to counteract Air Fiji. Strange.

[nname]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

YYZ-GRU, on its own, is near 3,000 km shorter than YVR-GRU. So if an Asian airline that currently serves both YYZ and YVR wants to extend its flight to South America, where do you think it’s more likely they will do it from?

It's more than just distance between Canada and Brazil though.

For instance, I believe the bilateral with Japan only allows fifth freedom flights from YVR or NRT (not sure if this had been updated, since the detail is no longer published). So if any airline from Japan wants to run from YYZ (not saying that they will), bilateral need to be updated.

The frequency between Canada and China is fixed by routes and carrier, and YVR have more assigned frequency and much more unused or "seasonal" frequency (10 vs 0). So running from YVR means extending the seasonal service to year-round, while from YYZ means cannibalizing capacity from existing service.

From HKG the distance is actually quite similar, but YVR benefits from being near the midpoint of the route. I believe it's more fuel efficient, meaning less fuel is wasted on carrying the extra weight of fuel on the longer segment?

And also, running the service from YYZ means complete directly with AC. I'm not sure AC would be happy with that, especially with partner airlines like NH, CA, or even CX.

Just give a few examples that distance is not that only thing that matters.

[LeftCoaster]

it's been a looooong time since I did one of these, but with a semblance of stability returning to the aviation world I figured I'd take a shot at a S23 chart. There are likely some incorrect frequencies or planes, and some big assumptions made, but it's looking OK for draft #1.

Big assumptions made:

• China is still more or less closed
• The higher of S22 or W22 frequencies will be repeated in S23
• AC will resume Delhi somehow (not sure how)

[Johnny Aussie]

Wow. Good work.
Really shows the breadth and depth of YVR’s intl reach. Also shows YVR’s overwhelming dominant position in Western Canada for longhaul intl flying.
You’re right though trying to predict China is futile at the moment.
Although not intercontinental, Aeromexico to MEX - it is 3x daily and no indication that’s going to be reduced.
Also Korean to ICN, EVA to TPE, ANA to HND and China Airlines to TPE should all be daily
Condor increasing to 5 weekly next summer
But again - excellent work!