Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport (YOW/CYOW) 1.0

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Of all flights to get cancelled, what airline would cancel YOW-YTO?

You'd be surprised at the number of Rapidairs cancelled since May. With a fraction of the traditional biz pax on the route, there's a lot less risk of damaged reputation to AC for now...there's plenty of other sources for that these days with AC, lol. Some of that day trip traffic is gone forever thanks to Teams, Zoom, etc.. Will be interesting to see if PD eventually get in on the YYZ portion of the triangle.

Today's departure count: 71

Today's cancellation count: 0

[MountainView]

Some Porter news:

For the first time, an Embraer from the largest buyer of Brazilian E2 aircraft takes off
Per Carlos Martins - August 12, 2022

EXCLUSIVE – The first aircraft of the future largest operator of Embraer's E2 jets, Canadian Porter Airlines, has already made its first flight and will be delivered soon.

As we previously disclosed, the aircraft entered production in May , and will be delivered in the second half of this year. It is the first of 80 E195-E2 jets produced in São José dos Campos. And it was in the city of São Paulo that the jet was spotted by spotter and collaborator Felipe Carneiro, when the plane was returning from its first flight over the Paraíba Valley.

Porter is not only the largest buyer of E2 jets, but also the main one, as it is a Canadian company, which currently only operates planes from Canada and which had ordered Embraer's competitor, the Airbus A220 (formerly Bombardier CSeries) made in the North American country.

The setback for the “owners of the house” was one of Embraer's great recent strengths, also due to the fact that it opens a new business model for the company, which will begin operating out of Toronto's Bishop Airport for the first time.

Link to the article

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by MountainView

Some Porter news:



Link to the article

That's so exciting, it looks so good. Porter is really dragging the announcement of their initial routes. They are supposed to fly the first commercial route in Q3/Q4 but Q3 is a month and a half away from done.

[MountainView]

I was recently looking around at some potential flights and noticed that on the Air Canada booking site they now list YOW-EWR on United as a bookable direct option. I believe, before their new updated joint venture, that this route was one of the carveouts. I did not see the AC flights listed on United yet though. Perhaps it's a mistake from AC?

Nevertheless, looks like United will be brining a mix of E70 and E75 aircraft to YOW through November.... and as of right now, on November 6, United mainline is scheduled to run the morning EWR-YOW and late morning YOW-EWR runs on an A320!

AC Jazz is also offering 3x daily during the week and 1-2 on weekends like pre-pandemic.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MountainView

Some Porter news:

Happy for Porter. But also watching AC's XLR order starting deliveries in Q1 2024. Would bet money AC uses those to launch year round LHR, FRA and CDG from at least YOW and YHZ. Possibly even YQB.

Should be interesting to see what happens when Porter breaks into domestic and Transborder at YOW while AC ends up owing Transatlantic. I wonder what the market is for TATL, from YOW if AC offers LHR, CDG and FRA. Could kill the desire for any other carrier to set up here.

[YOWflier]

The other airline could have a full year head start for launch and development of awareness and loyalty. If AC starts all of that first, probably game over for a long while.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

The other airline could have a full year head start for launch and development of awareness and loyalty. If AC starts all of that first, probably game over for a long while.

Exactly what I was thinking. They have a chance if they swoop in now, and little chance for them if they wait until after AC does do all three LHR, FRA, CDG year round. I still don't have faith in AC though to actually add CDG. They love to cater to their hubs and by adding such routes like CDG, they will lose YOW traffic to those hubs. I hope I'm wrong, but my faith in them is rock bottom. Also there is nothing stopping them from adding LHR now. If they can do it with a MAX from Halifax, they can do it here.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

The other airline could have a full year head start for launch and development of awareness and loyalty. If AC starts all of that first, probably game over for a long while.

I give it a max of 2 years (so by Q3 2024) till we see AC 321XLRs operating out of YOW. So the clock is ticking for any potential competitor. But AC is very likely to deploy a lot of these out of YUL increasing options and competition there, which will only increase the draw from here.

The other question for me is whether AC can get slot pairs at LHR for YOW year round or whether YOW, YHZ and YQB get year round to Gatwick instead.

Lastly, AC could use any 321XLRs based in Ottawa on high value transcons to compete with Porter, in between their TATL runs. Lie flat J to SFO, for example.

[YOWflier]

That’s what I’m saying. Clock is ticking and a competitor logically has a year head start if they launch in S23.

The AC slot pair already exists for YOW-LHR. If I’m not mistaken it’s being sat on by 2nd daily YUL-LHR. I’m not convinced that 2nd daily will last.

That’s where our FRA service came from back in the day. 2nd daily at YUL was removed and allocated to YOW.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

That’s what I’m saying. Clock is ticking and a competitor logically has a year head start if they launch in S23.

The AC slot pair already exists for YOW. If I’m not mistaken it’s being sat on by 2nd daily YUL-LHR. I’m not convinced that 2nd daily will last.

That’s where our FRA service came from back in the day. 2nd daily at YUL was removed and allocated to YOW.

I never knew that about the LHR from YOW being started that way. My dream is for BA or AF to come here. I may be wrong but doesn't AF have XLR's as part of their fleet?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

That’s what I’m saying. Clock is ticking and a competitor logically has a year head start if they launch in S23.

Sucks that IAG isn't jumping on this. I don't think anybody else has a realistic shot.

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

The AC slot pair already exists for YOW. If I’m not mistaken it’s being sat on by 2nd daily YUL-LHR. I’m not convinced that 2nd daily will last.

That’s where our FRA service came from back in the day. 2nd daily at YUL was removed and allocated to YOW.

I'm confused. Slot pairs at LHR aren't assigned to specific cities. They are for the airline to allocate as they wish. Also what does an LHR slot pair have to do with FRA?

Also, why do you think a second YUL-LHR is unsustainable? Given the network at YUL (especially with US feed), I don't think they have issues filling that. Also, I don't see AC trading a widebody from YUL to LHR for a narrowbody from YOW.

[YOWflier]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

I never knew that about the LHR from YOW being started that way.

It was FRA that started that way.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

My dream is for BA or AF to come here. I may be wrong but doesn't AF have XLR's as part of their fleet?

BA is the best positioned. AF after them.

Air France hasn't bought the XLR. Yet.

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I give it a max of 2 years (so by Q3 2024) till we see AC 321XLRs operating out of YOW. So the clock is ticking for any potential competitor. But AC is very likely to deploy a lot of these out of YUL increasing options and competition there, which will only increase the draw from here.

The other question for me is whether AC can get slot pairs at LHR for YOW year round or whether YOW, YHZ and YQB get year round to Gatwick instead.

Lastly, AC could use any 321XLRs based in Ottawa on high value transcons to compete with Porter, in between their TATL runs. Lie flat J to SFO, for example.

Where is the biggest A321 pilot base for Air Canada right now? Those pilots will have least amount of training for the XLR. I think it is Montreal, which would mean its going to start in Montreal. It is easier (and cheaper) for airlines to hub planes where there pilots are, especially when starting a new plane.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

It was FRA that started that way.

Sorry that's what I meant, FRA.

Also agreed - BA would have the upper hand here. An XLR with AF would just compliment it perfectly in my opinion, if they ever purchase them.

[YOWflier]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I'm confused. Slot pairs at LHR aren't assigned to specific cities. They are for the airline to allocate as they wish. Also what does an LHR slot pair have to do with FRA?

The pair allocated to YOWLHR was reallocated to YUL for 2nd daily due to COVID. Lots of people, like me, believe this is temporary and will come back to YOW.

FRA has nothing to do. I was just recalling how a 2nd daily YULFRA at the time was pulled and allocated to YOW to launch that service.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Zmonkey

Where is the biggest A321 pilot base for Air Canada right now? Those pilots will have least amount of training for the XLR. I think it is Montreal, which would mean its going to start in Montreal. It is easier (and cheaper) for airlines to hub planes where there pilots are, especially when starting a new plane.

It's obviously going to launch at YYZ and YOW. But they've got 30 frames coming over 4 years. So by Q3 2024, AC will probably have enough to launch from secondary cities. Why would they leave YOW open to IAG or AFKL? It's the most obvious Europe-Canada hole.

Part of that XLR order is from lease firms. If AC wasn't in a rush, they wouldn't be taking from lessors. And why take from lessors if they don't intend to make some really competitive plays? Is YUL-LYS really more important than YOW-LHR/LGW?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by FlyYOW

The pair allocated to YOWLHR was reallocated to YUL for 2nd daily due to COVID. Lots of people, like me, believe this is temporary and will come back to YOW.

FRA has nothing to do. I was just recalling how a 2nd daily YULFRA at the time was pulled and allocated to YOW to launch that service.

I think a lot depends on what happens to government travel going forward. Those LHR slots are very valuable. Using narrowbodies on them without exceptional yields, is suboptimal.

With AC increasingly going back to their pre-Covid business of targeting Americans through their hubs, I'm personally skeptical that AC would redeploy a Heathrow slot to YOW to operate an XLR.

I think a big gamechanger is that they can now operate narrowbodies from YEG, YWG, YOW, YQB and YHZ to Europe. It's opportunity. But also LHR slots are expensive for these places. So I can see a strategy where these cities get double daily to LGW or STN for London-bound traffic and then several of them also get double daily to FRA or MUC for their connections. I don't think FRA is as pressed for slots. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I think a lot depends on what happens to government travel going forward. Those LHR slots are very valuable. Using narrowbodies on them without exceptional yields, is suboptimal.

With AC increasingly going back to their pre-Covid business of targeting Americans through their hubs, I'm personally skeptical that AC would redeploy a Heathrow slot to YOW to operate an XLR.

I think a big gamechanger is that they can now operate narrowbodies from YEG, YWG, YOW, YQB and YHZ to Europe. It's opportunity. But also LHR slots are expensive for these places. So I can see a strategy where these cities get double daily to LGW or STN for London-bound traffic and then several of them also get double daily to FRA or MUC for their connections. I don't think FRA is as pressed for slots. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I was thinking about all those narrow body slots at LHR myself. But I don't think AC will forever keep YOW-LHR as a narrow body. Before COVID, they must have seen good demand for this route to want to upgrade it to a 788. Unless the only reason why they wanted to do that is so they can use their 767 for cargo? But I'm not sure if they were planning for that back then.. Also I think the thing about LHR as apposed to LGW is that a lot of these people going to LHR isn't O&D traffic, people are connecting there with AC's partners. There isn't as much connectivity selection in LGW. For example, I know someone who used to use YOW-LHR to grab a flight from LHR to BEY on MEA. That's not an option from LGW.

[YOWflier]

It’s hugely based on government travel going forward, but I also sometimes think people forget we have other sizeable industry here driving demand. I’m seeing all of that come back in a big way. Anecdotally, everyone I know who travelled operationally pre-COVID is travelling again now. Both private and Gov. It’s becoming clear that Teams just isn’t a viable (total) replacement of face-to-face meetings.

I’m also skeptical that a YOWLHR resumption would be a narrowbody for long or if more than seasonally. Time will tell.