Heavy Rail, Commuter Rail, & Intercity Transportation

[Alex Mackinnon]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Rail is amazing, love me some rail, but if the WCE can only afford to run 5 trains a day between Mission and Vancouver through the entire Lower Mainland at a highly subsidized cost, how many trains and for how much to run between Langford and Victoria? Pretty much guaranteed to be fewer trains and for more money.

This isn't correct at all. WCE would run more service, but the railways don't want to lease them the track time. Since Translink or the province don't own the tracks, they're SOL.

WCE doesn't have bad cost recovery IIRC. Probably better than most buses outside of Vancouver.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Changing City

It looks like this study comprehensively examines the options, and concludes a better bus service is the way to go. (The sort of rain we saw last November would disrupt service, but it would probably have stopped rail service too). "Some people favor rail over bus transit because they consider it more comfortable, prestigious and reliable, but bus service would be more frequent, direct, affordable, and faster overall for most trips. As a result, bus transit is likely to attract more passengers and provide more total benefits than rail."

As far as I heard, the only issue the rail line faced was a few down trees. So, a minor disruption when compared to how long the Malahat was closed.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

This isn't correct at all. WCE would run more service, but the railways don't want to lease them the track time. Since Translink or the province don't own the tracks, they're SOL.

WCE doesn't have bad cost recovery IIRC. Probably better than most buses outside of Vancouver.

Let's do some quick math!

WCE in its best year (2019) carried 2.7 million passengers. Let's assume each passenger is commuting from Mission to Downtown (only something like 6% does) and pays the full 5 zone fare of $13.10 (no monthly passes). That means:

2.7 million * $13.10 = $35 million

...

According to the 2019 year end budget recap, WCE operating expenses were $0.094 per capacity kilometer. A capacity kilometer is defined by Translink to be:

...multiplying the trip distance by available vehicle spaces.
= Avg. Rail Car Passenger Capacity * Annual Service Car-Kilometres
It captures the capacity along the entire route (i.e. sitting and standing spaces for passengers)

If the WCE was running at full capacity in 2019 (which I believe it was) every working day (251 days), and the WCE has 44 car trains with an average capacity of around 145 seated + 365 standing and the route is 69km long

(44 cars) * ((145 + 365) avg capacity / car) * (69 km / direction) * (2 directions / day) * (251 days)* ($0.094 / capkm) = $73,064,012

So in the best case scenario (every passenger is milked for maximum money), you're looking at under 50 cents on the dollar returned. The actual number is going to be far less than this. More WCE = more money spent, unfortunately.

In 2019 Translink reported cost recovery for the entire system of 59%. (And that's for real)

I still love rail and I'd love to see the north-of-the-Fraser communities develop around rail transportation over continued car dependence, but it doesn't come for free!

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

As far as I heard, the only issue the rail line faced was a few down trees. So, a minor disruption when compared to how long the Malahat was closed.

So wouldn't it be a better use of money to spend some of the $600m that Commuter Rail Service would need to be established (p5 report, p12 pdf) to fix the Malahat so it doesn't flood during extended torrential rain events, and subsidizing a decent bus service on the route? It would benefit far more residents, businesses and visitors than reintroducing a rail service would.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

As far as I heard, the only issue the rail line faced was a few down trees. So, a minor disruption when compared to how long the Malahat was closed.

The Malahat was literally reopened the next morning; the rail line would've needed an extra couple of days to clear the trees. Neither'd be able to operate during the actual storm.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

The Malahat was literally reopened the next morning; the rail line would've needed an extra couple of days to clear the trees. Neither'd be able to operate during the actual storm.

If there's one thing last November's flooding should tell us, it's that nature can take out as many redundant routes as you throw at it. During that event every last road and rail link between Vancouver and the rest of Canada was out of service, some of them for weeks. That's five highways and three rail lines. Highway 8 between Spences Bridge and Merritt is still closed the best part of a year later.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Let's do some quick math!

WCE in its best year (2019) carried 2.7 million passengers. Let's assume each passenger is commuting from Mission to Downtown (only something like 6% does) and pays the full 5 zone fare of $13.10 (no monthly passes). That means:

2.7 million * $13.10 = $35 million

...

According to the 2019 year end budget recap, WCE operating expenses were $0.094 per capacity kilometer. A capacity kilometer is defined by Translink to be:



If the WCE was running at full capacity in 2019 (which I believe it was) every working day (251 days), and the WCE has 44 car trains with an average capacity of around 145 seated + 365 standing and the route is 69km long

(44 cars) * ((145 + 365) avg capacity / car) * (69 km / direction) * (2 directions / day) * (251 days)* ($0.094 / capkm) = $73,064,012

So in the best case scenario (every passenger is milked for maximum money), you're looking at under 50 cents on the dollar returned. The actual number is going to be far less than this. More WCE = more money spent, unfortunately.

In 2019 Translink reported cost recovery for the entire system of 59%. (And that's for real)

I still love rail and I'd love to see the north-of-the-Fraser communities develop around rail transportation over continued car dependence, but it doesn't come for free!

So, when are all the roads being tolled? The fuel tax does not cover the costs any better.So, when will they pay for the roads?

Originally Posted by Changing City

So wouldn't it be a better use of money to spend some of the $600m that Commuter Rail Service would need to be established (p5 report, p12 pdf) to fix the Malahat so it doesn't flood during extended torrential rain events, and subsidizing a decent bus service on the route? It would benefit far more residents, businesses and visitors than reintroducing a rail service would.

The problem is the Malahat route can only be built so robustly. That tells me that another route should be made.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

The Malahat was literally reopened the next morning; the rail line would've needed an extra couple of days to clear the trees. Neither'd be able to operate during the actual storm.

During the storm, it was a literal river. The E&N had a handful of trees down.They could have had someone with a chainsaw on the train and if a tree was down, it could have been moved within minutes. That means that the line could have remained operational, albeit with a slow order even when the highway was closed.

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

If there's one thing last November's flooding should tell us, it's that nature can take out as many redundant routes as you throw at it. During that event every last road and rail link between Vancouver and the rest of Canada was out of service, some of them for weeks. That's five highways and three rail lines. Highway 8 between Spences Bridge and Merritt is still closed the best part of a year later.

It also shows that when you build on a drained lake, the lake can fill back in. It showed me that during heavy rain, the Malahat becomes a river.

[Alex Mackinnon]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Let's do some quick math!

WCE in its best year (2019) carried 2.7 million passengers. Let's assume each passenger is commuting from Mission to Downtown (only something like 6% does) and pays the full 5 zone fare of $13.10 (no monthly passes). That means:

2.7 million * $13.10 = $35 million

...

According to the 2019 year end budget recap, WCE operating expenses were $0.094 per capacity kilometer. A capacity kilometer is defined by Translink to be:



If the WCE was running at full capacity in 2019 (which I believe it was) every working day (251 days), and the WCE has 44 car trains with an average capacity of around 145 seated + 365 standing and the route is 69km long

(44 cars) * ((145 + 365) avg capacity / car) * (69 km / direction) * (2 directions / day) * (251 days)* ($0.094 / capkm) = $73,064,012

So in the best case scenario (every passenger is milked for maximum money), you're looking at under 50 cents on the dollar returned. The actual number is going to be far less than this. More WCE = more money spent, unfortunately.

In 2019 Translink reported cost recovery for the entire system of 59%. (And that's for real)

I still love rail and I'd love to see the north-of-the-Fraser communities develop around rail transportation over continued car dependence, but it doesn't come for free!

Like I said, still better than suburban buses. The skytrain and a few Vancouver bus routes are profitable, it skews the rest of the numbers quite heavily.

I think most of the commuter buses from SoF were in the 20-30% recovery range last I checked. Even 50% recovery would be a big improvement.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

So, when are all the roads being tolled? The fuel tax does not cover the costs any better.So, when will they pay for the roads?

The problem is the Malahat route can only be built so robustly. That tells me that another route should be made.

During the storm, it was a literal river. The E&N had a handful of trees down.They could have had someone with a chainsaw on the train and if a tree was down, it could have been moved within minutes. That means that the line could have remained operational, albeit with a slow order even when the highway was closed.

It also shows that when you build on a drained lake, the lake can fill back in. It showed me that during heavy rain, the Malahat becomes a river.

The roads don't pay for themselves either. Yet it's cheaper to widen the Malahat or improve drainage than build the rail to passenger train standard and have maybe thirty people riding it each trip.

"So robustly" would be good enough for the next flood.

And now you've demonstrated that you've no clue what you're talking about and you're just making things up as you go - if the Malahat's a literal river, then the rail line's a literal river. You want a train to run through raging floodwater and mudslides, and to stop and have somebody get out and walk through it to clear a tree every twenty minutes? Even if you could find a crew and a union who'd agree to that, and had enough budget for the ridiculously high hazard pay, it's running empty because everybody's staying home or driving instead of showing up in Victoria three hours late.

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

If there's one thing last November's flooding should tell us, it's that nature can take out as many redundant routes as you throw at it. During that event every last road and rail link between Vancouver and the rest of Canada was out of service, some of them for weeks. That's five highways and three rail lines. Highway 8 between Spences Bridge and Merritt is still closed the best part of a year later.

No no, I have it on good authority that the rail line is on a mountain. Water and mud will somehow wreck the highway but completely ignore the rail bed! /s

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

So, when are all the roads being tolled? The fuel tax does not cover the costs any better.So, when will they pay for the roads?

#1 The highway is already built so any capital expenditure isn't really worth debating anymore
#2 Love it or hate it, the amount of drivers on the Malahat is, for the foreseeable future, going to be significantly higher than any commuter train along the same corridor would be. I don't like it, but that's the cold hard truth in our car-centric society.

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

Like I said, still better than suburban buses. The skytrain and a few Vancouver bus routes are profitable, it skews the rest of the numbers quite heavily.

I think most of the commuter buses from SoF were in the 20-30% recovery range last I checked. Even 50% recovery would be a big improvement.

I don't believe it's better than suburban busses. The number I calculated (48% recovery) is the absolute maximum (every passenger buying day passes in the morning and evening from Mission to Vancouver). I pretty much guarantee you that the individuals using this regularly will have monthly passes which will cut revenue by approximately 1/3, and most ridership is not Mission - Vancouver, which results in cheaper fares and passes too. If we continue to assume that trips are all Mission - Vancouver, but all passengers are monthly pass holders instead of doing individual fares (how many people are actually tapping in day passes on the WCE?):

(2.7 million trips / year) / (251 work days / year) / (2 trips / passenger) = 5378 passengers per day (approx)

We can also use daily count which was approximately 11,000 trips per day or 5500 unique passengers per day (I assume it's almost impossible for an individual to ride the WCE multiple times in one day), let's use the bigger number to get an overestimate.

If these all have monthly passes from Mission - Vancouver:

(5500 passengers) * ($358.70 / passenger / month) * (12 months) = $23.7 million

$23.7m / $73m = 32% recovery

Again, this is almost certainly an overestimate. Most riders are not riding Mission - Vancouver, but I couldn't find a good breakdown of ridership by zone. We're already in suburban bus territory, and the recovery rate is almost certainly below 32%.

EDIT: Just want to add, don't assume I don't believe in WCE, all I'm really saying is it's not a clear easy sell, and an island connector is pretty clearly an even harder sell.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

The E&N had a handful of trees down.They could have had someone with a chainsaw on the train and if a tree was down, it could have been moved within minutes.

I think you are seriously underestimating how much logs weigh. And how dangerous cutting through a downed tree can be when the weight of the tree is released and both halves suddenly seek their new position of lowest potential.

Clearing downed trees takes heavy equipment, unless they're saplings.

But hey, if you're ever out there with your chainsaw then be sure to shoot some video so we can all enjoy the results.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

I think you are seriously underestimating how much logs weigh. And how dangerous cutting through a downed tree can be when the weight of the tree is released and both halves suddenly seek their new position of lowest potential.

Clearing downed trees takes heavy equipment, unless they're saplings.

But hey, if you're ever out there with your chainsaw then be sure to shoot some video so we can all enjoy the results.

Start at the ends and cut small pieces at a time. Presto.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by logan5

Start at the ends and cut small pieces at a time. Presto.

Which takes a while - there's a reason why crews spend entire mornings or afternoons removing a downed tree. Instantly, in the middle of a flash flood? Not happening.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

The roads don't pay for themselves either. Yet it's cheaper to widen the Malahat or improve drainage than build the rail to passenger train standard and have maybe thirty people riding it each trip.

"So robustly" would be good enough for the next flood.

And now you've demonstrated that you've no clue what you're talking about and you're just making things up as you go - if the Malahat's a literal river, then the rail line's a literal river. You want a train to run through raging floodwater and mudslides, and to stop and have somebody get out and walk through it to clear a tree every twenty minutes? Even if you could find a crew and a union who'd agree to that, and had enough budget for the ridiculously high hazard pay, it's running empty because everybody's staying home or driving instead of showing up in Victoria three hours late.

https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news...-will-be-expensive-engineers-say-4601563
From 2013

"Government engineers say they have done all the easy upgrades possible on the Malahat highway, and from here on out there’s only extremely expensive rock blasting and cliffside work remaining."

"A 2007 government engineering report estimated widening the entire highway would cost about $250 million.

That’s an old estimate, likely to be far higher now, said Livolsi."


How much would it be to bring back the E&N?

https://www.capitaldaily.ca/news/rail-vancouver-island-esquimalt-to-nanaimo

"The initial phase, which the report proposes be undertaken next year, would see 2 to 4 passenger trains and two to four freight trains per day travel 225 kilometres from Victoria to Courtenay. Passenger stops would be made in Langford, Duncan, Nanaimo, and Parksville. Bringing service to that level would cost an estimated $227 million. The trains would travel between 25 and 30 miles per hour."


So, which one makes more sense?
Fix the Malahat for over $250 Million
Fix the E&N for about $227 Million?

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

No no, I have it on good authority that the rail line is on a mountain. Water and mud will somehow wreck the highway but completely ignore the rail bed! /s

Originally Posted by chowhou

#1 The highway is already built so any capital expenditure isn't really worth debating anymore
#2 Love it or hate it, the amount of drivers on the Malahat is, for the foreseeable future, going to be significantly higher than any commuter train along the same corridor would be. I don't like it, but that's the cold hard truth in our car-centric society.

How do you stop an addiction?
To stop a car addiction, you build a robust transit system that would give people options.

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

I think you are seriously underestimating how much logs weigh. And how dangerous cutting through a downed tree can be when the weight of the tree is released and both halves suddenly seek their new position of lowest potential.

Clearing downed trees takes heavy equipment, unless they're saplings.

But hey, if you're ever out there with your chainsaw then be sure to shoot some video so we can all enjoy the results.

Unless they are 300 year old Douglas Fir, which they weren't, you would be right. They were more "normal sized" trees. As far as getting them cleared, been there, done that. Takes about 5-10 minutes a tree to lop it up and clear it out of the way. For that matter, they could just send a machine for removing them if they deem it is necessary. I was giving you the way they could do it with the size of trees they were dealing with.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

So, which one makes more sense?
Fix the Malahat for over $250 Million
Fix the E&N for about $227 Million?

Obviously the Malahat. From Changing City's study a few pages back:

• Malahat widening: $561 million, 33k daily users
• Malahat straightening: $967 million, 33k daily users
• Victoria-Courtenay Rail: $1,007 million, 1,610 daily users

Granted, other studies say it can be done for $729 million and 1,505 daily users. Either way, the rail is bad value for money.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

How do you stop an addiction?
To stop a car addiction, you build a robust transit system that would give people options.

Unless they are 300 year old Douglas Fir, which they weren't, you would be right. They were more "normal sized" trees. As far as getting them cleared, been there, done that. Takes about 5-10 minutes a tree to lop it up and clear it out of the way. For that matter, they could just send a machine for removing them if they deem it is necessary. I was giving you the way they could do it with the size of trees they were dealing with.

Except it's neither robust, nor a good option. It'd be a provincial charity case for a bunch of retiree train nuts.

If you're in a position to know how big the trees blocking the tracks were and how fast they could be removed, maybe offer to do it yourself? Because whichever government team gets sent out to clear it will need at least half a week... even more if the rail's been washed away too (which does happen).

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Obviously the Malahat. From Changing City's study a few pages back:

• Malahat widening: $561 million, 33k daily users
• Malahat straightening: $967 million, 33k daily users
• Victoria-Courtenay Rail: $1,007 million, 1,610 daily users

Granted, other studies say it can be done for $729 million and 1,505 daily users. Either way, the rail is bad value for money.[/URL]).

Agreed, we could probably provide a daily express bus between Prince George and Dease Lake for under $1 million with operating costs of only a few hundred thousand a year, but that would be a huge waste of money.

We could also build the UBC Millennium line extension for a couple billion dollars and that would probably be money well spent.

Forward thinking demand shaping is good and right, but we shouldn't completely burn money. This isn't Sim City where we can just reconfigure the entire zoning and transportation network of the island with a couple mouse clicks. It's a process which is going to take a while, and the Island Connector is too far along in the process to make sense right now. Victoria barely has a comfortable effective local transit system in my opinion, and we want to discuss heavy rail into the city?

[casper]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Agreed, we could probably provide a daily express bus between Prince George and Dease Lake for under $1 million with operating costs of only a few hundred thousand a year, but that would be a huge waste of money.

We could also build the UBC Millennium line extension for a couple billion dollars and that would probably be money well spent.

Forward thinking demand shaping is good and right, but we shouldn't completely burn money. This isn't Sim City where we can just reconfigure the entire zoning and transportation network of the island with a couple mouse clicks. It's a process which is going to take a while, and the Island Connector is too far along in the process to make sense right now. Victoria barely has a comfortable effective local transit system in my opinion, and we want to discuss heavy rail into the city?

I don't think we are talking "Heavy rail" we are taking about low frequency train service. Perhaps using technology similar to what was used on the old O-train pilot in Ottawa.

We are also talking about service through the fastest growing community in Canada (aka "Langford").

The transit system in Victoria is honestly not bad. It could be better but it does well.

Rail based transit becomes something communities start to look at when they hit populations of 500,000. Victoria is getting close, Vancouver Island is well above that.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by casper

I don't think we are talking "Heavy rail" we are taking about low frequency train service. Perhaps using technology similar to what was used on the old O-train pilot in Ottawa.

We are also talking about service through the fastest growing community in Canada (aka "Langford").

The transit system in Victoria is honestly not bad. It could be better but it does well.

Rail based transit becomes something communities start to look at when they hit populations of 500,000. Victoria is getting close, Vancouver Island is well above that.

But Victoria itself isn't yet 100,000, and Langford isn't yet 50,000. Would much of the rest of Greater Victoria (which isn't yet 400,000) get any benefit from a rail service? (Rather than putting whatever a rail service would cost into improving the frequency and reliability of bus service - and moving away from diesel buses).

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by casper

I don't think we are talking "Heavy rail" we are taking about low frequency train service. Perhaps using technology similar to what was used on the old O-train pilot in Ottawa.

We are also talking about service through the fastest growing community in Canada (aka "Langford").

The transit system in Victoria is honestly not bad. It could be better but it does well.

Rail based transit becomes something communities start to look at when they hit populations of 500,000. Victoria is getting close, Vancouver Island is well above that.

"Heavy" and "light" rail refers to the size and mass of the train, not the frequency; the suggested Island Corridor passenger service to Courtenay would be "heavy rail" even if it only ran once a day, and the O-Train is "light rail." Go figure.

Light metro service on the Langford-Victoria stretch - maybe to Swartz Bay - may or may not be worth looking at... in around ten years. To Duncan? That'll make the Fast Ferries look good by comparison.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Changing City

But Victoria itself isn't yet 100,000, and Langford isn't yet 50,000. Would much of the rest of Greater Victoria (which isn't yet 400,000) get any benefit from a rail service? (Rather than putting whatever a rail service would cost into improving the frequency and reliability of bus service - and moving away from diesel buses).

BC is not into amalgamation the same way as other parts of the country. So yes, Victoria is just under 400,000. The Langford stretch is growing quickly.