Canadian Retail Thread

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Coldrsx

Edmonton - Downtown retail struggles

https://retail-insider.com/retail-in...ry-interviews/

Retail is struggling everywhere. And in general, it's because we have way too much retail space in North America. In an era of extremely high land values, stagnating wages and low cost e-commerce, it's getting harder for traditional retail to compete. That is why we see dead malls everywhere.



Downtown retail is going to be toast in a lot of cities. The rents are nuts. And without the foot traffic, it's just not justifiable.

[Loco101]

We're definitely in a retail and restaurant recession right now. And it may get much worse. The main reasons are competition from online retailers, rising costs of operation and worker shortages. The pandemic was rough but the other issues are causing more trouble.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by esquire

Has The Bay renovated any stores outside of Toronto and maybe Montreal and Vancouver in this century?

I don’t even think the Montreal location is renovated.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Loco101

We're definitely in a retail and restaurant recession right now. And it may get much worse. The main reasons are competition from online retailers, rising costs of operation and worker shortages. The pandemic was rough but the other issues are causing more trouble.

There's actually a bifurcation of retail happening. Somewhat driven by wealth inequality. But also driven by the growth of e-commerce. So the top malls are actually seeing their revenues per square foot go up. The rest are often in a slow and steady decline. Which is why so many are often targeted for redevelopment. At some point, many of them reach the point where the underlying land is worth more redeveloped for housing and office space than a revenue generator for the mall REIT that owns them.
Good video explaining this here:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/ge...ml?jwsource=cl

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Loco101

We're definitely in a retail and restaurant recession right now. And it may get much worse. The main reasons are competition from online retailers, rising costs of operation and worker shortages. The pandemic was rough but the other issues are causing more trouble.

Eh, the Retail Apocalypse has been going on for awhile. Multiple major retailers have struggled since 2008. The over-retailed thing has come to haunt us. It probably will for awhile, because the one’s ability to consume the sheer amount of crap pumped out was always going to be a limiting factor of how much retail we actually needed.

Restaurants? They’ll just get more expensive, and marginal business-case ones will flounder. It might just go back to them being an actual luxury thing. What I hope is that some of the chains that have become ubiquitous will wash away with the tide going out. If one is going to be spending bucks to go out, might as well enjoy some local flavour instead of just going to Kelsey’s or something like that.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Eh, the Retail Apocalypse has been going on for awhile. Multiple major retailers have struggled since 2008. The over-retailed thing has come to haunt us. It probably will for awhile, because the one’s ability to consume the sheer amount of crap pumped out was always going to be a limiting factor of how much retail we actually needed.

Restaurants? They’ll just get more expensive, and marginal business-case ones will flounder. It might just go back to them being an actual luxury thing. What I hope is that some of the chains that have become ubiquitous will wash away with the tide going out. If one is going to be spending bucks to go out, might as well enjoy some local flavour instead of just going to Kelsey’s or something like that.

My observation has been an increasing number of national chains and fewer independent businesses in Ontario. I haven’t seen this happen as much in BC.

In the part of the Vancouver area in which I live, Starbucks closed several locations in early 2021, but in the meantime a local chain has opened a new coffee shop nearby, another local chain extended its hours, and a new independent Italian shop opened where my local Starbucks used to be.

Meanwhile I’ve been in Toronto and London over the past week. London is more beholden to chain restaurants and chain retailers than ever before, and even Toronto is moving in that direction. There’s been a continued proliferation of Tim Hortons in Toronto that we simply haven’t been seeing in the Vancouver area, even with the loss of numerous Starbucks locations.

As a point of comparison, the city of New Westminster has a Tim Hortons location density of about 7.1 per 100,000 people (not counting institutional locations), while the Byron-Lambeth-River Bend area of London has a Tim Hortons density of 15.2 per 100,000. Independent businesses just seem to thrive better in BC, even outside major city cores.

[esquire]

^ Starbucks closed a handful of locations around Winnipeg over the last couple years. Some have been replaced by new stores with drive-thrus, but we are definitely down several locations.

The donut shop chains like Tim's and Robins seem to be holding steady, but they aren't opening new locations very much anymore. Far from the rate they were opening around 15 years ago.

I guess we've seen peak coffee chain, and it's now on a bit of a descent.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by esquire

^ Starbucks closed a handful of locations around Winnipeg over the last couple years. Some have been replaced by new stores with drive-thrus, but we are definitely down several locations.

The donut shop chains like Tim's and Robins seem to be holding steady, but they aren't opening new locations very much anymore. Far from the rate they were opening around 15 years ago.

I guess we've seen peak coffee chain, and it's now on a bit of a descent.

They’re still expanding in London and area. They’ve opened a new location just outside Byron since the start of the pandemic, and they’ve also expanded into areas like Komoka and Ilderton in the past 5-6 years.

Another chain I’ve noticed has expanded in London is Burger King. They have a new location that just opened outside Sherwood Forest Mall this summer.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by manny_santos

As a point of comparison, the city of New Westminster has a Tim Hortons location density of about 7.1 per 100,000 people (not counting institutional locations), while the Byron-Lambeth-River Bend area of London has a Tim Hortons density of 15.2 per 100,000. Independent businesses just seem to thrive better in BC, even outside major city cores.

Nice analysis!

You should analyze the Tim Horton’s density in a selection of bedroom community cities across Canada: Abbotsford vs Leduc vs Barrie vs St-Jerome vs Lower Sackville, or something like that.

[TownGuy]

Cobourg has a Tim Hortons density of 25 per 100,000. There are 5 with a population of 20,000. I imagine many communities in Southern Ontario rival this.

[Djeffery]

Not really sure why the comparison of New Westminster to Byron/Lambeth/Riverbend in London. Of course the population density is lower here, we aren't boxed in by mountains and an ocean. This area of London is probably geographically double the size of New Westminster. New West would fit in Lambeth from south of Southdale Rd to the 402 and a mile on either side. An area that only has 2 Tim Hortons. The area is being developed with 60-70 foot wide single family lots, not apartment complexes. It's also not like the 4 Timmy's in this side of town are right on top of each other either. And the newest of the 4, the one at Riverbend that opened the summer before the pandemic, is the only Timmy's on Oxford st west of downtown on this major route in and out of the city. (unless you want to deal with that nightmare on Wonderland across from Costco). Should also point out that the plaza this one is located in also has 4 or 5 locally owned non-chain eating locations in it and a couple more going in across the road.

The Lambeth Tim's also serves highway 402 nearby.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by TownGuy

Cobourg has a Tim Hortons density of 25 per 100,000. There are 5 with a population of 20,000. I imagine many communities in Southern Ontario rival this.

Aylmer has 2 for 7000 people.

[Denscity]

Castlegar has 1 Tim's for 15000 people + highway traffic.

[Nathan]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

Aylmer has 2 for 7000 people.

We might need to exclude small towns that partially make it work because of highway traffic. There are 3 towns in Saskatchewan between 1,000 and 2,500 people that I can think of with a Tim Hortons (Davidson, Indian Head, Moosomin)

In fact, Davidson has roughly 90 A&Ws, Subways, and Tim Hortons per 100,000 people.

Scratch that... Chamberlain is my new favourite. Town of 90 with a subway making it 1,111 subways per 100,000 people.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Denscity

Castlegar has 1 Tim's for 15000 people + highway traffic.

I lived in Deep River ON in the 1990s when it’s first and only Tims opened. First day they ran out of supplies. Parking lot was packed. Not certain if the entire town of 5000 came out but it felt like it.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by casper

I lived in Deep River ON in the 1990s when it’s first and only Tims opened. First day they ran out of supplies. Parking lot was packed. Not certain if the entire town of 5000 came out but it felt like it.

It’s just like living in Russia!

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by casper

I lived in Deep River ON in the 1990s when it’s first and only Tims opened. First day they ran out of supplies. Parking lot was packed. Not certain if the entire town of 5000 came out but it felt like it.

Gee, sounds like the Popeyes that opened the other month in Halifax.

Our Popeyes opens in a few months time. I'm bracing for massive traffic jams on Mountain Road for at least a month.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by TownGuy

Cobourg has a Tim Hortons density of 25 per 100,000. There are 5 with a population of 20,000. I imagine many communities in Southern Ontario rival this.

Tillsonburg isn't far off. 4 for 18,000. Belmont, which is about 5 miles south of the 401 SE of London is getting one, and they have maybe 1200 people. It's not a full Timmy's though, but a kiosk in a new Esso station. Which reminds me another small town east of London, Thamesford, has had a Tim's for years. Another of those towns of less than a couple thousand. But there is an OPP office in the library so I think it's an OPP union issue lol.

[Acajack]

At a quick glace, most places in Québec seem to have about half the Tim Hortons density of places in Ontario.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Acajack

At a quick glace, most places in Québec seem to have about half the Tim Hortons density of places in Ontario.

Sounds like BC and Quebec are the main Timmies deserts in Canada