Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[casper]

Originally Posted by theman23

We just saw prices go down 20% with the overnight rate increasing. You try way too hard to obfuscate what’s plainly true.

Just giving a real world personal example.

Yes, prices are down from January/February. However they are not crashing yet.

Will they in a month or two? Who knows.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by theman23

Probably nothing to worry about:
https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/37...for-the-Kelowna-RCMP-to-recruit-officers

In the same way that handing out money has no impact on inflation and interest rates have no effect on housing prices, police officers have no effect on crime. So there is nothing to worry about.

[casper]

So you can get a home suitable for a PM for under $500k. However it does require a move to Manitoba. Who is saying houses are not affordable?

https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/former-prime...Trending%20Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by theman23

Probably nothing to worry about:
https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/37...for-the-Kelowna-RCMP-to-recruit-officers

Our military has the same problem. Some personnel aren't posted to Ottawa. Risk of compromise, because of economic hardship, is too high.

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/...a-because-of-regions-high-cost-of-living

[urbandreamer]

I can buy a home in Foam Lake SK for under $100k. I met a woman there who bought hers for $45000 in 2015. She moved from Vancouver. Similar homes to hers go for $800k in isolated Ontario towns like Atwood or Ethel.

[SpongeG]

I saw a house for sale in Hines Creek, AB for $20,000. Granted it would be a crappy place to live but it's possible.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

I saw a house for sale in Hines Creek, AB for $20,000. Granted it would be a crappy place to live but it's possible.

When Hines Creek AB becomes the next Welland ON, will there still be people arguing that this is all a supply problem?

Its amazing how all of a sudden the entire country developed a housing shortage when the bank tanked interest rates.

[Al Ski]

Home prices tend to be sticky - until they're suddenly not.

Interest rates (like CPI, GDP etc.) are lagging indicators.

Much pain to come when we get into the fall/winter.

We've been in an Everything Bubble for a decade or more.

Trillions of $$ of QE have warped logic and fundamentals beyond recognition.

Time to pay!

This will not be pretty..

And of course the 'Too Big To Fails' will be bailed out yet again whilst the rest of us will be left to suffer - again.

And then the TBFs will scoop up all the cheap assets and another cycle will begin..

Anyone else tired of this 'cyclical scam'?

[Nashe]

I'm happy for people who have made out well with this market zoom but... on the flip side I'm not too proud to admit that I feel a little jealous. I'm 2/3 of my way through a "normal house, normal price, normal mortgage" that I purchased when my decent-income, low-mortgage rates, reasonable-housing prices and the general cost of living were all at least ... compatible.

Acquaintances of ours who built their own far north ON simple home <10 years ago on a remote piece of land just sold it for about 5x what it cost them. They took that $ and moved to small-town NS and bought their MUCH larger suburban home for cash and with a tidy sum left in their pocket.

My slow, steady, responsible route got smoked by "scrape something together then luck out".

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

I can buy a home in Foam Lake SK for under $100k. I met a woman there who bought hers for $45000 in 2015. She moved from Vancouver. Similar homes to hers go for $800k in isolated Ontario towns like Atwood or Ethel.

I'm surprised we didn't see more of a "leveling out" of these types of comparisons during the WFH rush of COVID. There are certainly some places that are now 100% remote. It would even be worth a modest pay cut to move to some of these remote areas.

Instead, we saw the reverse. Full steam ahead on suburbs and ex-urbs.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Instead, we saw the reverse. Full steam ahead on suburbs and ex-urbs.

The kind of people with the disposable income that could afford detached homes in 2019 have certain material and lifestyle expectations that truly remote parts of Canada are unable to fulfill.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

The kind of people with the disposable income that could afford detached homes in 2019 have certain material and lifestyle expectations that truly remote parts of Canada are unable to fulfill.

Never forget the bs torontolife article about the guy who moved to rural Ontario during COVID and then immediately regretted it because he realized living in rural Ontario wasn't the same as living on Queen West.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Never forget the bs torontolife article about the guy who moved to rural Ontario during COVID and then immediately regretted it because he realized living in rural Ontario wasn't the same as living on Queen West.

Ah, this guy.

A case study in failing upwards financially and how even morons can fall ass-backwards into money if they got lucky with timing.

I'd rather read about a redneck who wins the Powerball and pisses it all away, because at least that's more entertaining (hicks with money come up with entertaining ways to use it) and lacks the faux-pretentious uppity-ness that mostly makes me want to see the Toronto Life guy get his lights punched out.

[hipster duck]

That was a funny story but the best TO Life RE clickbait article was about the guy who bought a Parkdale fixer upper and then hired a guy off the street as a contractor who then drove a dozer through a retaining wall.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

The kind of people with the disposable income that could afford detached homes in 2019 have certain material and lifestyle expectations that truly remote parts of Canada are unable to fulfill.

Surely you’re not casting aspersions on the cosmopolitan charms of Foam Lake, SK (wherever the hell that is)?

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Vorkuta

I'm happy for people who have made out well with this market zoom but... on the flip side I'm not too proud to admit that I feel a little jealous. I'm 2/3 of my way through a "normal house, normal price, normal mortgage" that I purchased when my decent-income, low-mortgage rates, reasonable-housing prices and the general cost of living were all at least ... compatible.

Acquaintances of ours who built their own far north ON simple home <10 years ago on a remote piece of land just sold it for about 5x what it cost them. They took that $ and moved to small-town NS and bought their MUCH larger suburban home for cash and with a tidy sum left in their pocket.

My slow, steady, responsible route got smoked by "scrape something together then luck out".

Same here. If I had a time machine I would go back to when I bought my first residence (a very prudent $100,000 condo in 2006) and dial up the purchase to the max the bank would approve me for

Originally Posted by casper

So you can get a home suitable for a PM for under $500k. However it does require a move to Manitoba. Who is saying houses are not affordable?

https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/former-prime...Trending%20Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem

That is really nice! Portage is only a 45 minute drive from Winnipeg so it's not like it's in the middle of nowhere. Portage itself is a town that's arguably seen better days, but the area where this house is situated is pretty good with lots of other big, beautiful older homes and there are some great recreational amenities nearby. This probably wouldn't be a good location for a single 27 year old, but if you are a bit older and have a family then I could see it being a great option.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

That was a funny story but the best TO Life RE clickbait article was about the guy who bought a Parkdale fixer upper and then hired a guy off the street as a contractor who then drove a dozer through a retaining wall.

When I asked my Oakville-based slumlord to provide a vent for the dryer in my apartment he proceeded to find a guy off the street in front of my apartment to drill the hole. I ended up paying the stranger $20 to get lost before doing the job myself. Where's my TOLife article?

[lio45]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Surely you’re not casting aspersions on the cosmopolitan charms of Foam Lake, SK (wherever the hell that is)?

“Foam Lake”? If it’s in northwestern SK, hope it’s not part of the tarsands’ tailing ponds system….?

[lio45]

Originally Posted by esquire

Same here. If I had a time machine I would go back to when I bought my first residence (a very prudent $100,000 condo in 2006) and dial up the purchase to the max the bank would approve me for

If I had a time machine, I wouldn’t even bother with real estate, I’d have been all in on crypto with the right timing and thus would have more money now than I could ever spend no matter how much I tried.

[yaletown_fella]

Originally Posted by lio45

If I had a time machine, I wouldn’t even bother with real estate, I’d have been all in on crypto with the right timing and thus would have more money now than I could ever spend no matter how much I tried.

I believe I was given some free dogecoin back in 2013 but lost the key I need to access it.

Agreed that the right timing is key. Undoubtedly I regret not purchasing it around 2011.

Once TV networks like CNBC started essentially pitching crypto as a way for everyone to become a millionaire , I knew it was over. You'll notice that during 2020-2021 (The Height of the Covid 'stupid money' bubble) , the mainstream media was never critical or skeptical about the feasibility of Bitcoin. They only gave it positive coverage.

I always laugh at people who call Crypto 'digital gold' and a hedge against inflation. The reality is, ever since the smart money/institutional investors got in on it, its price movement has been highly correlated with the Kathie Wood ARKK innovation fund.