Calgary International Airport II

[YYCFlier]

BA used to compete in winter with AC on this route, so I am not terribly worried.

That, and AC has *A connectivity at LHR, and they will get all of the business traffic. WS has never run a TATL route from YYC daily in winter so this will be interesting.

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

Are you sure? Seems more likely Fort. St John wasn't selling

Wrong.

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

That, and AC has *A connectivity at LHR, and they will get all of the business traffic.

WestJet has an identical pod going to the same airport and pricing is roughly the same so I don't know how you arrive at the conclusion that AC gets 100% of the traffic and WestJet gets nothing.

I personally know corporate flyers who fly YYC-LHR and they are not going to switch back just because it's winter.

[YYCFlier]

Seems awfully coincidental they are increasing from 2x daily to YXJ to 3x daily out of YVR and nix the 1x daily from YYC. If it's operational why not just move the frame on that turn to YYC?

Originally Posted by ace.yyc

WestJet has an identical pod going to the same airport and pricing is roughly the same so I don't know how you arrive at the conclusion that AC gets 100% of the traffic and WestJet gets nothing.

I personally know corporate flyers who fly YYC-LHR and they are not going to switch back just because it's winter.

For O&D, yes, WS will do fine. But WS has made it known that it's not expanding and it's business and premium offerings will be limited to what it has now. Winter is not high leisure, and WS is more leisure than business (not saying it's all leisure but more leisure).

As for pricing - you're missing one important point - Aeroplan. You can't get into WS W or J seats without paying real money. Skymiles is limited to Y and it's a good deal in NA, but not as much for TATL.

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

Winter is not high leisure, and WS is more leisure than business (not saying it's all leisure but more leisure).

Sure, but that's not what you said. WS skewing more leisure than business is not a revolutionary statement but it's not what we're talking about, nor the irrelevant future drawdown. The claim was that AC will get all the business traffic to LHR this winter. That is not true.

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

For O&D, yes, WS will do fine.

The implication of this seems to be that WS will be more reliant on O&D for their winter LHR than AC's? Which would also be wildly untrue.

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

As for pricing - you're missing one important point - Aeroplan. You can't get into WS W or J seats without paying real money.

I have missed nothing and you seem to have forgotten I have all the numbers here? You said it's zero, and I'm here telling you it's not zero and we have numbers since even LGW launched to show it's not zero.

[casper]

Originally Posted by ace.yyc

Wrong.



WestJet has an identical pod going to the same airport and pricing is roughly the same so I don't know how you arrive at the conclusion that AC gets 100% of the traffic and WestJet gets nothing.

I personally know corporate flyers who fly YYC-LHR and they are not going to switch back just because it's winter.

WS needs to build out it network of codeshare and interline partners out of LHR if it wants to service the winter season.

At Gatwick that was a non-issue, there were no reasonable partners. LHR is a different story.

WS to LHR will fail this winter? Gotcha. I'll report back each month with the loads.

[Calfan12]

Originally Posted by casper

WS needs to build out it network of codeshare and interline partners out of LHR if it wants to service the winter season.

At Gatwick that was a non-issue, there were no reasonable partners. LHR is a different story.

Yes, good points. It will be interesting competition between Air Canada & WestJet this winter on Calgary YYC- London UK LHR flight route.

[Calfan12]

Eurowings (summer seasonal) Frankfurt FRA- Calgary YYC few times weekly flights starts today & operated by a Finnair Airbus A350-900.

Its the 1st international flight route for YYC on the A350.

As YYC long haul international flights are currently operated mostly by a mix of Boeing 787,777 and Airbus A330/340.

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by Calfan12

Eurowings (summer seasonal) Frankfurt FRA- Calgary YYC few times weekly flights starts today & operated by a Finnair Airbus A350-900.

Its the 1st international flight route for YYC on the A350.

As YYC long haul international flights are currently operated mostly by a mix of Boeing 787,777 and Airbus A330/340.

It's exciting to finally have scheduled A350 service!!

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Calfan12

As YYC long haul international flights are currently operated mostly by a mix of Boeing 787,777 and Airbus A330/340.

The current mix is 789, 343 and now the 359 only.

There are no A330s or B777s currently operating. KLM is operating a 789 daily with the odd/rare 772 replacement.

August longhaul summary:

47 weekly flights/8 destinations/5 carriers (3 foreign)

WS 20 weekly 789 LHR LGW CDG DUB FCO
AC 14 weekly 789 LHR FRA
KL 7 weekly 789 AMS
4Y 4 weekly 359 FRA
WK 2 weekly 343 ZRH

Wednesdays are the busiest with 8 departures
Thursdays/Saturdays/Sundays 7
Mondays/Tuesdays/Fridays 6

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

The current mix is 789, 343 and now the 359 only.

There are no A330s or B777s currently operating. KLM is operating a 789 daily with the odd/rare 772 replacement.

August longhaul summary:

47 weekly flights/8 destinations/5 carriers (3 foreign)

WS 20 weekly 789 LHR LGW CDG DUB FCO
AC 14 weekly 789 LHR FRA
KL 7 weekly 789 AMS
4Y 4 weekly 359 FRA
WK 2 weekly 343 ZRH

Wednesdays are the busiest with 8 departures
Thursdays/Saturdays/Sundays 7
Mondays/Tuesdays/Fridays 6

Nice to see Eurowings actually operating. Bookings must have been at least decent.

Originally Posted by hehehe

Nice to see Eurowings actually operating. Bookings must have been at least decent.

Based on my understanding of what the bookings were, the only reason they're delayed to mid-summer and are down to 4x weekly is aircraft availability. First one just landed. I'm just gonna do this the old school way and count how many people get off the airplane.

Also, I couldn't help myself but to check WS advance bookings for LHR to confirm that everyone is wrong about it failing. Yeah, everyone is wrong about it failing.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by ace.yyc

Based on my understanding of what the bookings were, the only reason they're delayed to mid-summer and are down to 4x weekly is aircraft availability.

Makes sense.

This particular Finnair frame has been operating MUC-YUL the past couple of months. LH mainline resumed the route today, freeing up the frame to start FRA-YYC.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/oh-lwc

[Johnny Aussie]

Transborder flight summary for August

Total 233 fights per week so ~ 33 daily

US carriers only 12 daily this summer and AC only 3 daily
Westjet approx 18 daily

UA 35
DEN 14 weekly 319
IAH 7 weekly 739
SFO 7 weekly 319
ORD 7 weekly 73G

AA 21
DFW 14 weekly 73H
ORD 7 weekly 73H

AS 14
SEA 14 weekly DH4

DL 14
MSP 7 weekly 321
SLC 7 weekly E75

AC 21
LAX 7 weekly 223
EWR 7 weekly 320
SFO 7 weekly CR9

WS 128
LAS 21 weekly
LAX 14 weekly
SFO 14 weekly
PHX 14 weekly
SEA 14 weekly
PDX 11 weekly
IAH 7 weekly
ATL 7 weekly
SAN 4 weekly
JFK 4 weekly
PSP 4 weekly
MCO 3 weekly
BOS 3 weekly
BNA 3 weekly
SNA 3 weekly
DEN 2 weekly

[Calfan12]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Transborder flight summary for August

Total 233 fights per week so ~ 33 daily

US carriers only 12 daily this summer and AC only 3 daily
Westjet approx 18 daily

UA 35
DEN 14 weekly 319
IAH 7 weekly 739
SFO 7 weekly 319
ORD 7 weekly 73G

AA 21
DFW 14 weekly 73H
ORD 7 weekly 73H

AS 14
SEA 14 weekly DH4

DL 14
MSP 7 weekly 321
SLC 7 weekly E75

AC 21
LAX 7 weekly 223
EWR 7 weekly 320
SFO 7 weekly CR9

WS 128
LAS 21 weekly
LAX 14 weekly
SFO 14 weekly
PHX 14 weekly
SEA 14 weekly
PDX 11 weekly
IAH 7 weekly
ATL 7 weekly
SAN 4 weekly
JFK 4 weekly
PSP 4 weekly
MCO 3 weekly
BOS 3 weekly
BNA 3 weekly
SNA 3 weekly

Yep & also add in WestJet YYC - DEN 2x weekly too & upto 130 US flights for WS in August.

[Johnny Aussie]

^ I just cut off the last row of my table.
I have adjusted my post. DEN is included in the 128 weekly.

AC might be 3x daily now but look at December...

2x SFO RJ
2x IAH RJ
1x PHX 7M8
1x LAS 7M8
1x EWR 7M8
2x LAX 7M8

Not too damn shabby if it holds.

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Transborder flight summary for August

Total 233 fights per week so ~ 33 daily

US carriers only 12 daily this summer and AC only 3 daily
Westjet approx 18 daily

UA 35
DEN 14 weekly 319
IAH 7 weekly 739
SFO 7 weekly 319
ORD 7 weekly 73G

AA 21
DFW 14 weekly 73H
ORD 7 weekly 73H

AS 14
SEA 14 weekly DH4

DL 14
MSP 7 weekly 321
SLC 7 weekly E75

AC 21
LAX 7 weekly 223
EWR 7 weekly 320
SFO 7 weekly CR9

WS 128
LAS 21 weekly
LAX 14 weekly
SFO 14 weekly
PHX 14 weekly
SEA 14 weekly
PDX 11 weekly
IAH 7 weekly
ATL 7 weekly
SAN 4 weekly
JFK 4 weekly
PSP 4 weekly
MCO 3 weekly
BOS 3 weekly
BNA 3 weekly
SNA 3 weekly
DEN 2 weekly

Your breakdowns are very much appreciated.

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by ace.yyc

I have missed nothing and you seem to have forgotten I have all the numbers here? You said it's zero, and I'm here telling you it's not zero and we have numbers since even LGW launched to show it's not zero.

You and I both know it's not just about loads, it's about yield. I guarantee you if I lower WestJet's Y cabin to $1 fares each way my load factor will be close to 100% but I'd be losing money.

YYC-MEX had good loads for WS (you'd know better than I on this one) from what I heard, but the yields made this route unsustainable.

You're saying "we", so presumably you work for WestJet. If you work for YYC you can see loads but not revenue/yield unless the airlines share that with YYC which I highly doubt. Then you can tell if the planes are full but not if the route is making money.

At the end of the day, I think LHR can be served fine by two carriers in winter. I am curious what connecting traffic WS will be able to serve via LHR, though. BA obviously had an advantage there, and AC can connect with all the *A carriers and partners in Europe.

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

You and I both know it's not just about loads, it's about yield. I guarantee you if I lower WestJet's Y cabin to $1 fares each way my load factor will be close to 100% but I'd be losing money.

No, I don't work for WestJet. You've moved the goalposts now which is fine - the initial statement you made which I said is wrong is this:

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

That, and AC has *A connectivity at LHR, and they will get all of the business traffic.

100% factually wrong. That's the only statement I took issue with. Telling me yields matter as if I don't know that when it's kind of my job to know that... might not be the best use of time but you're welcome to continue explaining it to me. The hypothesis by a couple of you is that the route will fail, based on what I know to be true there is evidence to suggest that it will likely not fail. That's the only statement I'm really making here.