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Originally Posted by phil235
But the question is how a European airline could realistically compete with an Air Canada that can feed its transatlantic service hub with domestic flights from all over eastern Canada.
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You can't be serious. There's three large global alliances. Air Canada and its Star Alliance partners are just one. British Airways/Aer Lingus with Oneworld and Air France/KLM with SkyTeam both go toe-to-toe with Air Canada at several AC hubs. AFKL does get some feed from WestJet, but certainly not enough to support 4-6 flights per day from Montreal and 2-3 per day from Toronto. And this is before we discuss the entire universe of non-aligned network and discount carriers that could fly to Ottawa. Icelandair comes to mind, for example.
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Originally Posted by phil235
Load factors are much easier to manage out of hubs, which is why airlines prefer that model.
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For their own hubs. This doesn't apply to destinations, which are spokes. Are you seriously suggesting that airlines all over the world only fly to each others hubs, including those of their competitors? Why exactly would Air France or British Airways want to go head to head with air Canada in Toronto and Montreal with all the advantages that AC has at those airports, if they don't have to?
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Originally Posted by phil235
I also don't think it's fair to say that they don't "even consider launching a single service to Ottawa". Pre-pandemic, by all accounts we were close to getting at least one service like that, so clearly it is being considered.
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If it's like pulling teeth to just get 1-2 international connections and it's first on the chopping block for any disruptive event, maybe it's just that the demand is not there?
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Originally Posted by phil235
And on your point about third or fourth flights from an airport like Toronto, there are lots of reasons why that makes sense that aren't directly related to demand. For instance, it allows for far more efficient use of ground staff, more efficient maintenance, better capacity to absorb cancellations etc.
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Which speaks to the poor yield (reasonable proxy for demand) to/from Ottawa. There isn't enough to justify the startup costs in Ottawa.
Should be noted that for foreign carriers, Canadian cities are not hubs. So their costs are largely marketing and some customer service at the airport. They aren't basing AMEs in Toronto or Montreal.
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Originally Posted by phil235
Also, it's not exactly subscribing to a conspiracy theory to note that the existence of one dominant industry player is not in the interest of smaller markets.
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It's economically ignorant and conspiratorial to claim the world's airlines are ignoring YOW because they are clueless. Sometimes the simplest explanation is the truth: the demand isn't there.
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Originally Posted by phil235
I don't believe for a second that better competition in the industry wouldn't result in more direct destinations for Ottawa. That's the entire theory between Porter's expansion here.
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So we went from a whole long discussion on how nobody can get past Air Canada's dominance. But now it's all hopeful that tiny Porter will base a hub in YOW? If you were right about AC's dominance, Porter will get crushed. So which is it?
For the record, I've been nothing but cheerful about Porter coming to Ottawa. And I think it shows that YYZ and YUL can be bypassed. But the business case is also not as rosy as folks like you imagine. Especially for the international carriers.