Predicting Canada’s 2022 World Cup squad 2.0
Joshua Kloke theathletic.com July 5, 2022
It’s July, which means we’re officially in the second half of 2022 and many professional soccer players around the world — including some members of the Canada men’s national team — have seen their contracts end on June 30.
There are plenty of questions to be asked of the squad after their hectic and somewhat disappointing June international window as they continue to prepare for the 2022 World Cup. In this latest squad prediction, we take a look at who has changed clubs, what a successful second half of 2022 would look like for the 26 players who are either locked in, confident or in consideration to make the squad, as well as those on the outside looking in.
Goalkeepers
Locks: Milan Borjan (Red Star Belgrade), Maxime Crepeau (Los Angeles FC)
Confident: Dayne St. Clair (Minnesota United FC)
In consideration: None
Borjan remains the undisputed starter for Canada and will head into next season with Red Star Belgrade looking to win his sixth straight Serbian SuperLiga title. Given his experience, there’s not much we can realistically expect to change from the 34-year-old heading into the World Cup. But if we’re looking for improvements to his game ahead of taking on the biggest stage, two things stick out: can his positioning get better so he’s not forced to make daring saves as often? And can his distribution improve so that if Canada plan to stay in possession of the ball in Qatar, he’ll put them in the most optimal position to begin their build-up?
Crepeau remains one of the better goalkeepers in MLS, having conceded just 17 goals in 17 starts for Los Angeles FC this season. A successful end to his MLS season would help him build up the kind of confidence that, should he be called upon in Qatar, have him ready to play without hesitation. But perhaps more than that, Crepeau has an opportunity to integrate himself with two bonafide stars and newcomers to LAFC who have experienced success at major international tournaments: Gareth Bale and Giorgio Chiellini. Even if Chiellini’s Italy did not qualify for this year’s World Cup, can Crepeau glean anything from training with those two that could help prepare him for Qatar?
St. Clair’s position on the World Cup squad shouldn’t be in doubt, given how frequently he’s been called into the team as of late, and how well he’s played for Minnesota United. According to American Soccer Analysis, he has a goals minus expected goals value of -4.39, which means he’s saved roughly four more goals than he should have allowed. That’s second best in MLS.
What would help St. Clair is more wins from his team: having his MLS season end on October 9, more than six weeks before the World Cup, isn’t optimal. Minnesota are currently five points out of a playoff spot. Getting a playoff game or two could help St. Clair stay sharp before heading to Qatar.
Full-backs
Locks: Richie Laryea (Nottingham Forest), Alistair Johnston (CF Montreal), Sam Adekugbe (Hatayspor FC)
Confident: None
In consideration: None
Laryea’s move to the Championship hasn’t necessarily gone as he’s hoped: he’s made just five appearances since joining Nottingham Forest in January. Now, Forest have won promotion to the Premier League, meaning that Laryea could have an opportunity to defend against some of the world’s best forwards next season.
If Laryea stays with Forest and plays in the Premier League, that could be an incredible boon for him. But, there are a lot of “ifs” and “maybes” at play here. So a successful rest of 2022 for Laryea means getting some clarity: how does he factor into head coach Steve Cooper’s plans long-term? And if he’s not in those plans — or at least, not right now — what are Laryea’s options for a loan to a team that can offer him plenty of minutes?
Canada head coach John Herdman thinks highly of Laryea and hasn’t been afraid to play him when he hasn’t been getting regular club minutes, as evidenced by his starts during the final World Cup qualifying window. Not getting regular playing time won’t jeopardize Laryea’s spot in the squad. But if you’re Laryea, and you could potentially be starting one of the World Cup group-stage games, wouldn’t you want to be playing as much as possible with your club side so you’re sharp heading into Qatar?
For Adekugbe, more of the same is necessary in 2022: he’s all but assured to start at left-back, so he’ll want to play as much as possible with Hatayspor, which has been the case. More of an attacking presence would help too, as he may be expected to fill that role with Alphonso Davies pushing high up the pitch on the left side in Qatar.
It took some time for Johnston to find his footing with CF Montreal after a trade ahead of the season, but he’s coming into form, having gone the full 90 minutes in seven of CF Montreal’s last eight MLS matches. He’s showing more confidence in his passing, too, highlighted by the highest pass completion rate (82.2 percent) of his three-year MLS career.
That passing game seems to be a key part of Herdman’s game plan for Qatar, as evidenced by the strong back-and-forth ball movement between Johnston and left winger Tajon Buchanan in Canada’s recent Nations League games. Even though Johnston can play centre-back for Montreal, seeing him lean into his newfound strengths on the ball in the second half of the season could go a long way at the World Cup.
Centre-backs
Locks: Steven Vitoria (Chaves), Kamal Miller (CF Montreal)
Confident: Scott Kennedy (Jahn Regensburg), Derek Cornelius (Panetolikos)
In consideration: Joel Waterman (CF Montreal)
On the outside looking in: Doneil Henry (LAFC)
After three years with Portugal’s Moreirense FC, Vitoria moved to another Primeira Liga side, Chaves. A successful second half of 2022 for him is simple, at least on paper: transition to his new club quickly and earn minutes off the hop, as he’s still likely to start for Canada at the World Cup. He’s a veteran, guiding presence in the Canada locker room, so ensuring he finds his voice quickly with his club side will help, too.
Miller continues to impress as a ball-playing centre-back, but it wouldn’t hurt to see his game become more well-rounded defensively. According to FBRef, he’s made 13 tackles this year but won only seven of them. That percentage is fourth among CF Montreal’s five regular defenders.
Obviously that doesn’t speak to his entire game, which has evolved. But he’ll be leaned on very heavily in Qatar. Given his age (25), and the questions about Vitoria and his playing time, it’s possible that Miller plays every minute for Canada in Qatar. A little more of a defensive presence wouldn’t hurt.
Kennedy will want to play as much as humanly possible for Jahn Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga to stay sharp.
Cornelius will remain on loan at Panetolikos in the Greek first division from the Vancouver Whitecaps until the end of 2022. Continued playing time would help him heading into Qatar, but so too would some clarity on his future with the Whitecaps. Any player would want to be free of distraction heading into a tournament towards the end of his loan deal.
Waterman hasn’t been called into the national team since early World Cup qualification games in March 2021 against Bermuda and the Cayman Islands. And even then, he didn’t see the field. But among all CF Montreal defenders this season he’s logged the third-most minutes and has the highest pass-completion percentage (88 percent). He isn’t afraid to play physically and has 22 total tackles as well as scoring two goals. So if I’m Herdman, am I not at least interested in seeing if the former Canadian Premier League player can continue this form for the rest of the 2022? And would you not at least be wondering how that might positively impact your squad?
I ask those questions because you can consider me officially concerned about Doneil Henry. He was included on the Nations League squad and logged 31 minutes against Honduras. But Henry had just one substitute appearance for LAFC since April and, on Sunday, he was waived by the club, leaving his immediate future uncertain.
Herdman values Henry’s experience and spirit. But he’s been prone to unnecessary physicality at times, and more playing time is needed to refine that element of his game heading into Qatar.
Midfielders
Locks: Stephen Eustaquio (Porto FC), Tajon Buchanan (Club Brugge), Atiba Hutchinson (Besiktas JK), Jonathan Osorio (Toronto FC), Mark-Anthony Kaye (Toronto FC)
Confident: Junior Hoilett (Reading FC)
In consideration: Samuel Piette (CF Montreal), Liam Fraser (KMSK Deinze), Ismael Kone (CF Montreal)
On the outside looking in: David Wotherspoon (St. Johnstone), Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty (Toronto FC)
Eustaquio’s loan move to FC Porto became permanent, so for one of Canada’s most vital players, 2022 will be important for him to be challenged in different ways. Can he work his way into Porto’s Champions League line-ups, and what can he learn from playing against some of the world’s best midfielders?
The same goes for Buchanan, who could also make his Champions League debut. He established himself as an important player for Club Brugge in the Belgian first division, but showing well against a higher quality of player in the world’s biggest club tournament will determine how successful his 2022-23 campaign will be.
Hutchinson recently signed a one-year deal with Besiktas. Canada’s captain is now 39 years old and suffered a few minor injuries this past season. Herdman needs him to stay healthy but also maintain a good fitness level leading into November. The next four months will be about finding that balance ahead of the World Cup: playing meaningful minutes, but not overdoing it.
Speaking of which, Osorio’s playing time with Toronto FC has been limited of late, owing to multiple injuries. He also missed out on the Nations League games. This won’t jeopardize his place in the World Cup squad whatsoever but, for Osorio, a successful 2022 means both staying healthy and taking on a continued leadership role with TFC.
Like a few other players on this list, he won’t want his club soccer to stop in October. If he can play like the central attacking midfielder he wants to be, and create some synergy with new signing Lorenzo Insigne, he should increase his chances of getting a start in Qatar.
Kaye’s spot in the squad is also a lock given his versatility, which has been on display with the Rapids this season. We know Kaye can link up play well, but still, a little more attacking prowess in his game throughout the remainder of the MLS season could help him fill different roles for Herdman in Qatar.
Hoilett will need to determine where his best fit is now that he’s out of contract. He can play the ball so well on the ground for Canada, so ensuring that approach is best utilized day-to-day is important. There’s been some chatter about a move to Toronto FC, but my sense is the club has some other targets ahead of him.
Fraser and Piette both fill the defensive midfield role and are outsiders to get lots of playing time in Qatar, so both will need to be sharp and log regular minutes with their respective club teams. That appears to be less of an issue for Fraser than Piette, considering he had an injury to start the season and has yet to register consistent, 90-minute performances.
Kone remains in consideration given how he continues to shine on the ball with Montreal. But for the rest of 2022, it’s important that he also develops maturity on and off the field. He’s the only first-year pro in the squad, and he’s shown that inexperience at times off the ball.
Finally, there are other midfielders to consider, including David Wotherspoon. There’s no doubting the creativity and attacking vision he can bring when he’s fully healthy, but he’s still out after surgery due to a ruptured ACL and won’t return to September at the earliest. A successful 2022 would see him return to full health without any complications.
Marshall-Rutty is a dynamic attacking player who is being moulded into a modern right-back under Bob Bradley at TFC. Though he’s just 17, he remains one of the most talented prospects in MLS. A knee injury kept him out of TFC’s line-up for more than two months, but he returned in June. He’s going to have to prove that he has the confidence to match his talent and dribble circles around the competition to earn a spot on Herdman’s roster. Perhaps 2026 feels more likely, right now.
Forwards
Locks: Alphonso Davies (Bayern Munich), Jonathan David (Lille OSC), Cyle Larin (Club Brugge)
Confident: Lucas Cavallini (Vancouver Whitecaps), Ike Ugbo (Troyes AC)
In consideration: Liam Millar (FC Basel)
On the outside looking in: Luca Koleosho (Espanyol), Charles-Andreas Brym (Sparta Rotterdam)
It’ll be important that Davies’ role at Bayern continues to evolve. He played as more of a left midfielder than a left-back at times under Julian Nagelsmann during the new manager’s first season in Bavaria. Given that Davies tends to play as a left winger for Canada, time in more of an attacking role to start Bayern’s season could work for his continued development.
It was a good move for Larin to land at Club Brugge, as he did on July 4, for a few reasons: the longer it took him to find a club, the longer it would have taken him to feel comfortable in his new surroundings. Signing for Brugge ensures Larin will play Champions League soccer in 2022 ahead of the World Cup. So for him, a successful 2022 will mean acclimatizing quickly and keeping his confidence high by scoring goals. As we saw during the Nations League, Larin can rebound from so-so performances in short order.
David’s standing in the “Where will he land?” club was a little lower than Larin’s, considering he’s still under contract at Lille but, as has been documented, there is interest in him throughout Europe. Bayern Munich are the latest team to have been reported as having interest.
There are a number of players who need to ensure they get plenty of playing time heading into the World Cup, but no one on this squad needs it more than David. He’s such an integral part to Canada’s attack and their chances for success that he needs to be in a place that welcomes his talent, provides him minutes but also pushes him to develop further.
The Premier League feels like too vast a jump for him right before the World Cup. David needs stability heading into Qatar so he can perform and remaining in Lille, with a new manager that likes to play second strikers like David, feels like the better play.
Cavallini needs to just keep on keepin’ on. His five goals in 14 appearances are tops among all Whitecaps. He’s having arguably his best season in Vancouver, banging in goals by getting into the right places. If he keeps it up, he should be in the “Locks” category on the next list.
Ugbo didn’t have the most dominant first start for Canada during the Nations League match against Honduras, but his quality continues to be evident at the club level. But that’s where the questions emerge: his five goals in 14 appearances for Troyes during a loan spell in Ligue 1 were impressive, but Troyes have not exercised their option to buy him. His loan deal from KRC Genk in Belgium has now expired. He’s going to battle Cavallini to be called off the bench when a new forward is needed. Can he find a club that will give him time and then replicate the scoring success he had in France? That would be optimal for him in 2022 because, right now, Cavallini looks to be on far more solid footing.
After missing out on the Nations League due to injury, Millar looks ready to return to the Swiss Super League and possibly the Europa League as an FC Basel regular. He hasn’t always been able to translate his club form at the international level but, when he’s in form, he brings a spark and versatility that Herdman should value.
It was Millar who bumped Luca Koleosho off this list. Getting Koleosho in a Canada camp in June was good, but having him miss out on any possible games due to his limited time in the camp and Canada’s lone friendly being cancelled was not nearly as beneficial to his future with the national team. Herdman and co. will undoubtedly keep tabs on him, but they have more of a sure thing in Millar for now.
Brym didn’t make it off the bench for both of the Nations League games for which he was called up, though he did feature early in qualifying. He’ll have to start scoring at a torrid rate throughout 2022 for his new club to knock some others off this list.
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