Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[Architype]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Do we live in the same country? Homes have stopped being places to live and become primarily wealth creation vehicles for at least two decades now. An LVT would recognize this reality.



Wrong. Some Boomer couple staying in their four bedroom house as empty nesters is absolutely terrible. It's bad for housing affordability for families. It's bad for the environment and it makes it hard (and expensive) to support that ageing couple with health and social services. They should be downsizing in their 60s at the latest. But most absolutely refuse to do so. Hence our housing crisis and falling birth rate. Every empty bedroom in a seniors home is one that could be housing a future grandkid if they moved.

Your defence is the same BS John Tory was ranting about, to the young housing advocate who complained about rising development fees. See link I posted above. The tyranny of gerontocracy is destroying our country's future.

My only complaint against an LVT is that it does little to prompt developers to build, other than in very desirable locations that attract high LVT. Which they might develop anyway. Also an LVT without zoning reform doesn't really change the supply of developable land.

That works for some, but it's quite assuming & hypocritical, perhaps even a form of fascist thought if you think one size fits all, and people should just behave like anonymous statistics. Variations in health and lifestyle, economics etc., mean that your idea will work only for some. Traditionally, family homes are passed on to the next generations in due time. People develop bonds within their community and should not be forced to leave.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Architype

That works for some, but it's quite assuming & hypocritical, perhaps even a form of fascist thought if you think one size fits all, and people should just behave like anonymous statistics. Variations in health and lifestyle, economics etc., mean that your idea will work only for some. Traditionally, family homes are passed on to the next generations in due time. People develop bonds within their community and should not be forced to leave.

Forced to leave? No. But they should definitely pay full freight.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by esquire

As if pushing Boomers out of their homes is the only way out of this. Besides, it'll happen soon enough naturally anyway, you don't really need to encourage it.

It is downright absurd that a country this large and with so much physical space could have a housing situation like this. Governments won't relent on greenbelts and zoning restrictions, consumers won't relent on wanting to live in the three or four largest markets in the country... we put all these handcuffs on ourselves and not surprisingly, this is the natural result.

Ah yes. Let's pave over more farmland, all to make some Millennial commute 1.5 hrs each way to their job. Great solution.....

If all that space is so great why don't the Boomers move there and leave the cities for people actually engaged in the economy today?

In any event, I think you've proved why solving the housing crisis is so hard. The folks who have it all aren't willing to give an inch. They won't leave their large homes. They fight every development in their neighborhoods. Add they fight taxes to pay for housing, transit infrastructure, etc.

Oh they'll pass it on. Maybe. Just in time for Millennials to retire. The video I posted points out why this is a problem. Millennials getting an inheritance in time to retire doesn't help them. It just means they have fewer kids. And are less economically successful as they struggle all through their working lives.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Forced to leave? No. But they should definitely pay full freight.

What is "LVT"?

[Architype]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Forced to leave? No. But they should definitely pay full freight.

Keep these posts handy for when you get older and retire.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Architype

Keep these posts handy for when you get older and retire.

I live in a condo already. I actually do try to live my principles.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

In any event, I think you've proved why solving the housing crisis is so hard. The folks who have it all aren't willing to give an inch. They won't leave their large homes. They fight every development in their neighborhoods. Add they fight taxes to pay for housing, transit infrastructure, etc.

Oh they'll pass it on. Maybe. Just in time for Millennials to retire. The video I posted points out why this is a problem. Millennials getting an inheritance in time to retire doesn't help them. It just means they have fewer kids. And are less economically successful as they struggle all through their working lives.

I'm not a Boomer, but at the same time I don't believe that they owe you or I a thing in this regard. Least of all their homes. They built their homes, paid for them and live in them. And with the political reality being such as it is, no politician in his or her right mind would do anything to undermine that.

If the housing market is that unappealing where you live, maybe people there should try looking someplace else.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by esquire

I'm not a Boomer, but at the same time I don't believe that they owe you or I a thing in this regard. Least of all their homes. They built their homes, paid for them and live in them. And with the political reality being such as it is, no politician in his or her right mind would do anything to undermine that.

I don't think a Boomer owes me anything. I do think we have societal issues because of their preferences as a cohort. I think it should be concerning to people that our national situation is so bad that the OECD says Canada will be dead last in economic growth for the next 40 years. Are we not supposed to discuss the macro effects because a bunch of old farts get triggered?

Originally Posted by esquire

If the housing market is that unappealing where you live, maybe people there should try looking someplace else.

I actually agree. I encourage most young people who have talent to leave the country. The indicators are rather poor in the long run. I hope that changes and I advocate for it. But I'm not optimistic.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I live in a condo already. I actually do try to live my principles.

Yes, I am not one of those either, but I know older people who enjoyed their last years in a family home. It's not the boomers who caused the exponential rise in RE values, they just listened to their depression era parent's advice, it's economics largely determined and fueled by younger generations and hyper-capitalism run amuck.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by someone123

... and I think that people with mid-range incomes pay too much in taxes while the wealthy pay too little. Land taxes are probably the best kind of wealth tax available.

Agreed on all counts.

I'm a less extreme version of some Vancouver cases, but I also pay ridiculously low income taxes (I basically choose how much I want to give myself per year as personal income, and as long as it matches my modest personal lifestyle, no one can complain) compared to my wealth (even just my physically-in-Canada wealth). LVT would be a way for this country to tax my Canadian wealth more fairly.

(If we're too dumb to switch to that, not my problem. Already-rich Boomers who get property tax deferral financing at 0.25% forever (this program isn't means-tested at all, AFAIK) don't feel bad using the program, even the ones who admit it's not a good idea probably take advantage of it.)

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Architype

Yes, I am not one of those either, but I know older people who enjoyed their last years in a family home. It's not the boomers who caused the exponential rise in RE values, they just listened to their depression era parent's advice, it's economics largely determined and fueled by younger generations and hyper-capitalism run amuck.

I don't even really care if they caused it. They voted in their self-interest. Just like anybody else would. But we're in the middle of a crisis that is literally killing the future of this country. The idea that we can get through this without some serious changes and sacrifice is just dishonest.

It's pretty absurd in the midst of housing, climate and economic crises to tell working young people to go live in the boonies and commute hours to work. All to protect the preferences of a bunch of old folks.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I actually agree. I encourage most young people who have talent to leave the country. The indicators are rather poor in the long run.

Out of curiosity, where do you recommend they should go? (Sincere question.)

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lio45

Out of curiosity, where do you recommend they should go? (Sincere question.)

Wherever their talent gets them the best returns. Traditionally it's been the US. But these days, even Europe might provide a better quality of life than Canada for working professionals.

Canada is great if you're old and house rich or poor and need the social safety net. The return for working professionals is poor and getting worse by the day. Hence the lovely cycle where we export our top talent and then import skilled immigrants to fill the gap at wages our businesses can afford.

It's going to get entertaining when out health and social services get worse as those professionals start heading out and we keep insisting on highly restrictive standards in those fields for immigrants.

To give a view on how the bad the housing crisis is, a general just admitted at a town hall that the military is not posting junior enlisted in sensitive fields (like intelligence or cryptology) to Ottawa because they are worried they might be targets for foreign espionage thanks to the cost of living. Our housing market is literally becoming a national security risk and people are crying about how unfair it might be to tax Boomers living in empty McMansions more. This is why I'm so crabby and pessimistic.

[esquire]

^ The USA... the land of sprawl... and new sunbelt cities that sprang up from the dirt.

Ironic if someone gets fed up chasing a house in The Beaches so they end up moving to a subdivision in Scottsdale.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by esquire

^ The USA... the land of sprawl... and new sunbelt cities that sprang up from the dirt.

Ironic if someone gets fed up chasing a house in The Beaches so they end up moving to a subdivision in Scottsdale.

As you alluded to earlier. Beggars can't be choosers.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

As you alluded to earlier. Beggars can't be choosers.

But the principle doesn't apply in Canada?

$500,000 may not buy a SFH in Toronto or Vancouver, but there are plenty of places where it does.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by esquire

But the principle doesn't apply in Canada?

$500,000 may not buy a SFH in Toronto or Vancouver, but there are plenty of places where it does.

The same $500k will not only get you a better home and neighbourhood in many other places, but it will also get it in a city where you might actually get compensated better for your skill.

At this point, I'm honestly surprised why any family doctors, nurses, top tier tech professionals, etc stay in Toronto and Vancouver. Imagine going to school for a decade only to end up in a shoebox condo having to treat a bunch of secniors who you have to arrange homecare for because they live alone.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

In any event, I think you've proved why solving the housing crisis is so hard.

The solution to the housing crisis is easy.

It's...

...

*drumroll*

bitcoin.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The same $500k will not only get you a better home and neighbourhood in many other places, but it will also get it in a city where you might actually get compensated better for your skill.

At this point, I'm honestly surprised why any family doctors, nurses, top tier tech professionals, etc stay in Toronto and Vancouver. Imagine going to school for a decade only to end up in a shoebox condo having to treat a bunch of secniors who you have to arrange homecare for because they live alone.

There are alternatives without leaving the country. When I graduated university I decided to leave Vancouver. Places like Saskatoon and Victoria are vibrant have quick commutes and a lower cost of living.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by casper

There are alternatives without leaving the country. When I graduated university I decided to leave Vancouver. Places like Saskatoon and Victoria are vibrant have quick commutes and a lower cost of living.

Saskatoon and Victoria are horribly overpriced, even before factoring the lower incomes and higher taxes (obviously making them even more overpriced), by American standards (which is what young talent has access to, if they want).