The Official PEI Project Thread

[billy1]

Originally Posted by Sasha

If PEI grows at the same rate as it did between 2016 and 2021 (+8% growth in 5 years), PEI will hit 200,000 by 2030.
Now the Q2 2022 estimate from Stats Canada is 167k, which can't be right since the 2021 Census was 154k. But no matter how you look at it, we are growing pretty fast.

Charlottetown, Stratford, and Cornwall combined are now home to 56k people.

My guess would be that the Charlottetown CA is now at 90,000 +/-.

[josh_cat_eyes]

Originally Posted by billy1

My guess would be that the Charlottetown CA is now at 90,000 +/-.

Yeah it’s way more than 56,000 people. The metro area is definitely closer to 90k

[Sasha]

Originally Posted by josh_cat_eyes

Yeah it’s way more than 56,000 people. The metro area is definitely closer to 90k

Of course the CA encompasses a much larger area then just Charlottetown, Stratford, and Cornwall. It also includes Lot 34, 65, 48, 31, 35, 33, 49, 36, 37, Miltonvale Park, Clyde River, Brackley, Warren Grove, Meadowbank, Winsloe South, Mount Stewart, Union Road, Scotchfort 4, and Rocky Point 3. (These are the Census subdivision names.)

The Charlottetown CA (as of 2021) is home to 78,858 people. So outside of Charlottetown, Stratford, and Cornwall that's an extra 22k people being counted.

Here is the Census Profile

[billy1]

Originally Posted by Sasha

Of course the CA encompasses a much larger area then just Charlottetown, Stratford, and Cornwall. It also includes Lot 34, 65, 48, 31, 35, 33, 49, 36, 37, Miltonvale Park, Clyde River, Brackley, Warren Grove, Meadowbank, Winsloe South, Mount Stewart, Union Road, Scotchfort 4, and Rocky Point 3. (These are the Census subdivision names.)

The Charlottetown CA (as of 2021) is home to 78,858 people. So outside of Charlottetown, Stratford, and Cornwall that's an extra 22k people being counted.

Here is the Census Profile

The July 2021 estimate for Charlottetown using 2016 boundaries was 83,063.

For the 2021 census, the CA boundary extensions for Charlottetown added roughly 4500 people.

83,063 + 4500 = 87563 estimate for July 2021 using 2021 boundaries.

We have certainly added 2500 since then.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710013501

[Sasha]

Originally Posted by billy1

The July 2021 estimate for Charlottetown using 2016 boundarues was 83,063.

For the 2021 census the CA boundaries for Charlottetown added roughly 4500 people.

83,063 + 4500 = 87563 estimate for July 2021 using 2021 boundaries.

We have certainly added 2500 since then.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710013501

I don't even see the purpose of counting most of Queens County as "the metro" anyway, I like to look at the area that is actually fairly urban, witch is Charlottetown, Stratford, and Cornwall. But to each their own!

[billy1]

Originally Posted by Sasha

I don't even see the purpose of counting most of Queens County as "the metro" anyway, I like to look at the area that is actually fairly urban, witch is Charlottetown, Stratford, and Cornwall. But to each their own!

The Charlottetown CA is one of the smallest in Atlantic Canada by KM2. If the Charlottetown CA was roughly the size of others in the region, our population would be closer to 120,000 people.

Summerside's CA encompasses only 125 sq KM !!!!!!!!
Charlottetown's CA encompasses only 1110 sq KM !!!!

Fredericton CMA is 6015 sq KM !
Miramichi CA is 7600 sq KM !
Bathurst CA is 2100 sq KM
Moncton CMA is 2560 sq KM
Saint John CMA is 3506 sq KM !
Halifax CMA is 7275 sq KM !
Truro CA is 2730 sq KM
Sydney CA is 2420 sq KM
New Glasgow CA is 2066 sq KM


Summerside and Charlottetown have the smallest-sized CA's in Atlantic Canada!

Fredericton's CMA is almost 20% larger (in sq. KM) than ALL OF PEI!
Same for Halifax.
Same for Miramichi.
Saint John's CMA is about 25% less than ALL OF PEI

We must remember StatsCan population is based on commuter patterns, not actual population radius's around a given center. It would take upwards of 2-3 hrs. travelling time to get from edge to edge of the Halifax or Fredericton CMA's !

[Sasha]

Originally Posted by billy1

The Charlottetown CA is one of the smallest in Atlantic Canada by KM2. If the Charlottetown CA was roughly the size of others in the region, our population would be closer to 120,000 people.

Summerside's CA encompasses only 125 sq KM !!!!!!!!
Charlottetown's CA encompasses only 1110 sq KM !!!!

Fredericton CMA is 6015 sq KM !
Miramichi CA is 7600 sq KM !
Bathurst CA is 2100 sq KM
Moncton CMA is 2560 sq KM
Saint John CMA is 3506 sq KM !
Halifax CMA is 7275 sq KM !
Truro CA is 2730 sq KM
Sydney CA is 2420 sq KM
New Glasgow CA is 2066 sq KM


Summerside and Charlottetown have the smallest-sized CA's in Atlantic Canada!

Fredericton's CMA is almost 20% larger (in sq. KM) than ALL OF PEI!
Same for Halifax.
Same for Miramichi.
Saint John's CMA is about 25% less than ALL OF PEI

We must remember StatsCan population is based on commuter patterns, not actual population radius's around a given center. It would take upwards of 2-3 hrs. travelling time to get from edge to edge of the Halifax or Fredericton CMA's !

Yes, because it IS small. And not that many people commute between Summerside and Charlottetown. If you made the whole island a CMA it would be pointless. But people DO commute a long way in other regions. Like the GTA for example.

[billy1]

Originally Posted by Sasha

Yes, because it IS small. And not that many people commute between Summerside and Charlottetown. If you made the whole island a CMA it would be pointless. But people DO commute a long way in other regions. Like the GTA for example.

All the places in Atlantic Canada are small.
None of them compete with the GTA in any shape/fashion/form.

[Siriusb]

Originally Posted by Sasha

Of course the CA encompasses a much larger area then just Charlottetown, Stratford, and Cornwall. It also includes Lot 34, 65, 48, 31, 35, 33, 49, 36, 37, Miltonvale Park, Clyde River, Brackley, Warren Grove, Meadowbank, Winsloe South, Mount Stewart, Union Road, Scotchfort 4, and Rocky Point 3. (These are the Census subdivision names.)

The Charlottetown CA (as of 2021) is home to 78,858 people. So outside of Charlottetown, Stratford, and Cornwall that's an extra 22k people being counted.

Here is the Census Profile

I think the number of 78,858 is way off. Its almost like it went down and not up. A census redo should be done I believe for the Charlottetown CA. The growth certainly doesn't jive with the census number.
Am I right in saying that the 7,000+ UPEI/HC students are not included in the census. Anyone know what definitely happens in a Census with these people?

[billy1]

Originally Posted by Siriusb

I think the number of 78,858 is way off. Its almost like it went down and not up. A census redo should be done I believe for the Charlottetown CA. The growth certainly doesn't jive with the census number.
Am I right in saying that the 7,000+ UPEI/HC students are not included in the census. Anyone know what definitely happens in a Census with these people?

There was an article online that stated the undercount for Charlottetown was roughly 5% in the 2021 Census. Not sure what the reasoning was.

[josh_cat_eyes]

Originally Posted by Sasha

Yes, because it IS small. And not that many people commute between Summerside and Charlottetown. If you made the whole island a CMA it would be pointless. But people DO commute a long way in other regions. Like the GTA for example.

I’m from Summerside and I know several people who commute between both cities. Even more that commute from Summerside to Borden, Kinkora, Kensington, Wellington etc or vice versa for work to even just to shop and get groceries etc. Summerside’s reach is pretty huge.

[Siriusb]

Originally Posted by billy1

There was an article online that stated the undercount for Charlottetown was roughly 5% in the 2021 Census. Not sure what the reasoning was.

That sounds better, 82,800. That number certainly reflects the development better.

48 Provincial population rank: 1
National population rank: 48 of 152

9.8% In 2021, the enumerated population of Charlottetown, census
agglomeration (CA) was 78,858, which represents a change of 9.8%
from 2016. This compares to the provincial average of 8.0% and the
national average of 5.2%.

10.0% In 2021, there were 32,943 private dwellings occupied in
Charlottetown, which represent a change of 10.0% from 2016.

70.9 The land area of Charlottetown is 1,112.43 square kilometres and the
population density was 70.9 people per square kilometre.

Also, its been a good year since the census, Stratford is well over the 10,927 I'm sure. Also, with the development in Montgomery Heights in East Royalty, and the new Hidden Cove subdivision, we'll see over the 40,000+ in the next census for Charlottetown city.
If you combine the populations of Stratford and Cornwall, you have as many people as in Summerside. I never thought of that before until I looked at the numbers.

[Haliguy]

Originally Posted by billy1

All the places in Atlantic Canada are small.
None of them compete with the GTA in any shape/fashion/form.

I don't think you understand how CMA's work

[billy1]

Originally Posted by Siriusb

That sounds better, 82,800. That number certainly reflects the development better.

48 Provincial population rank: 1
National population rank: 48 of 152

9.8% In 2021, the enumerated population of Charlottetown, census
agglomeration (CA) was 78,858, which represents a change of 9.8%
from 2016. This compares to the provincial average of 8.0% and the
national average of 5.2%.

10.0% In 2021, there were 32,943 private dwellings occupied in
Charlottetown, which represent a change of 10.0% from 2016.

70.9 The land area of Charlottetown is 1,112.43 square kilometres and the
population density was 70.9 people per square kilometre.

Also, its been a good year since the census, Stratford is well over the 10,927 I'm sure. Also, with the development in Montgomery Heights in East Royalty, and the new Hidden Cove subdivision, we'll see over the 40,000+ in the next census for Charlottetown city.

The July 2021 estimate for Charlottetown using 2016 boundaries was 83,063.

For the 2021 census, the CA boundary extensions for Charlottetown added roughly 4,500 people.

83,063 + 4,500 = 87,563 estimate for July 2021 using 2021 boundaries.


I'd say Charlottetown is 90,000+ for July 2022

[billy1]

Originally Posted by Haliguy

I don't think you understand how CMA's work

I'm pretty sure I do, but thanks for your thoughts.

[Siriusb]

Originally Posted by billy1

The July 2021 estimate for Charlottetown using 2016 boundaries was 83,063.

For the 2021 census, the CA boundary extensions for Charlottetown added roughly 4,500 people.

83,063 + 4,500 = 87,563 estimate for July 2021 using 2021 boundaries.


I'd say Charlottetown is 90,000+ for July 2022

I'll fly with that! I just wish we had solid numbers that would show how we are really doing. The 78,858 may be the census results but I don't buy it. It doesn't jive with the areas demographic growth that we've seen in the past 6 years.

[billy1]

Originally Posted by Siriusb

I'll fly with that! I just wish we had solid numbers that would show how we are really doing. The 78,858 may be the census results but I don't buy it. It doesn't jive with the areas demographic growth that we've seen in the past 6 years.

Stat Can estimate numbers are the most up-to-date they provide.

[Haliguy]

Originally Posted by billy1

I'm pretty sure I do, but thanks for your thoughts.

Ok sure

[Siriusb]

Labour, housing shortages are complicating P.E.I.'s population strategy

CBC NEWS PEI

"The province’s population is growing at more than double the planned rate.

....estimated growth in the first half of 2022 has already outpaced last year's."

MORE HERE > https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-ed...lation-strategy-labour-housing-1.6517796



No wonder the Capital Region is growing so fast!!

[Siriusb]

Number of people arriving minus number of people leaving

There is quite a swing in the numbers. More are staying and it is noticeable.

There are 15 houses on our short street here in the Spring Park neighbourhood of Charlottetown. The houses were occupied by English/Scottish/Irish folk who built these homes. Twelve are now occupied by immigrant families. That happened in a short 5-6 years. Just an example of how Charlottetown is changing.