CHICAGO | Politics and Current Events

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Tom In Chicago

I remember the 1970s and 80s and downtown Chicago was somewhat rougher and grittier, but you didn't have the scourge of random gun violence that seems to be the new normal. . . probably a generational thing as well. . .

There's no doubt that it's bled into neighborhoods it hasn't been in awhile lately, but also remember that we hear about every crime ever now. Much easier to know everything going on without too much effort.

Remember that 1974 had nearly 1000 homicides in the city. Albeit it had around 500K - 600K more people in it. From a per capita perspective though it's pretty much identical to last year. Hopefully it doesn't take literal decades to bring down the rates like it did here after 1968...

I've lived downtown since 2005 and it seemed to be very safe - not that I worry about my safety now, but the general vibe seems different - and from the moment that the pandemic lockdowns hit it was like someone literally flipped a switch and drug dealers were openly selling on the street and the entire demographic of people shifted lower. . . since there was no office workers the only people you saw on the streets were teenagers that obviously weren't from any neighborhood near the Loop and homeless heroin addict panhandlers. . . it was really weird. . .

Yeah I wonder why that is. Was there an uptick in demand for downtown residents and drugs during lockdown to try and cope with things? Just thinking aloud.

Now it's better, office workers are returning - albeit lesser than pre-pandemic numbers - and tourists have come back - albeit mostly of the domestic variety. . . seems like international tourism has yet to make a full recovery, but I don't have the numbers to back that up. . .

Outside of work 3 days a week, I don't make it to other parts of downtown much (i.e. haven't hung out in RN since 2019) though been through the areas. Mag Mile and Streeterville I went a few times in the last few months and it was actually super busy in mid afternoon/early evening. Up in Lakeview/Lincoln Park it's busier than I remember as well and a more diverse set of people. Coming back to Chicago after a handful of years living in NYC where it's super busy in tons of places (not everywhere) had me worried for a drop in activity in commercial corridors. But I've been pleasantly surprised in a few neighborhoods at the uptick of activity on the streets in some areas. At least based on my memory.

I do pay attention to a few other cities more closely - Los Angeles, Milwaukee and Philadelphia all appear to have very similar problems in relation to Chicago (I'm sure there are others). . . Los Angeles problems seems very similar to ours with a few notable exceptions (homeless is much much worse there), and Milwaukee has a weird trend where kids are stealing Kias for some reason. . . Philly is a big old mess from what I can tell and I think it's probably mostly due to the opioid problem that was plaguing the cities prior to the pandemic. . .

Yeah, it's not just those cities but it's most cities who've experience quite a large uptick in gun violence specifically since the beginning of the pandemic. Some numbers are starting to come down in various places (shootings and homicides in Chicago are coming down a bit - hopefully that continues. It's only July). I have been tracking violent crime across all sorts of cities for a bit and it's always interesting to look at. Like the rate of robbery in Oakland right now is nearly double that of Chicago, and San Francisco is barely below Chicago in rate right now. They have had theft problems for years, but it's been awhile since they had a gun violence/homicide issue. Milwaukee has turned worse in terms of crime rates - their robbery and carjacking rates are above Chicago's now, and the homicide rate is well above Chicago's currently. Philadelphia is nearing on 1200 shooting victims this year vs. a little over 1600 for Chicago. But remember that Philadelphia has 1.1M less people than Chicago so its rate is about 23% higher than Chicago's. Milwaukee's is even higher than Philadelphia's. Each city measures what a shooting is differently so it's hard to compare unless they count victims too. NYC has a little less than half the shooting victims so far this year that Chicago has, with 3X+ the population.

I'm wondering civic leaders can actually accomplish with existing tools. . . I mean do we just live with it and accept it as the way things are now or are there more constructive forums for discussion that are going on outside my bubble which I'm not aware of? I pretty much only watch WGN for local news and scan the papers, but I don't see any sort of greater discussion of the issues we face in our cities. . .

What else is new? So many people just want to blame people, give shit to cities, etc but there's only a small percentage of the population even working to try and solve the actual issues. It's kind of mind blowing to me that people will give shit to those trying to solve the root causes of these issues. On the other hand, I think those people miss the fact that solving root causes could take years in this case and you still need to provide ample amount of protective services for the community in that period of time.

[CaptainJilliams]

Not to continue the exhausting discussion of crime, but per the crime stats provided by the city of Chicago on robberies alone (via @minc798 on Twitter and https://data.cityofchicago.org/):

• Of the 77 community areas in the city, 50 of them are currently (2022) at or below their 2018 robbery levels through 6/27
• Another 13 of them are higher by 5 or less (6 of the 13 have 1 more robbery in 2022 so far than 2018 in the same period)
• The 3 areas with the largest reductions so far in 2022 vs 2018 thru 6/18 are on the West Side - Austin, Humboldt Park, and East Garfield Park. A total decline of 35%
• For the downtown areas (Near North/South/West and the Loop) plus the areas along the lake going north has seen a slight reduction of 19 fewer robberies in 2022 to the same period in 2018, about a 2.1% decrease
• On the north side, the areas of Lincoln Park, Lake View Uptown, Lincoln Square, Edgewater, and Rogers Park have seen 12 more robberies in 2022 than in 2018, a slight but not massive increase of 3.6%. Compared to 2017, it actually has 30 less
• Finally, on the South Side, areas like Englewood, Chicago Lawn, West Englewood, Greater Grand Crossing, Auburn Gresham, and Chatham are reporting 133 fewer robberies in 2022 vs 2018 in this same time period, an 18.5% reduction

I understand folks are far more concerned with homicides and violent crime, but for those trying to claim all crime is up and out of control in Chicago are just flat out wrong.

And I don't mean to deflect the current crime challenges we are facing, but something has to be said for the fact that some of the increases we are seeing in crime correlate with the pandemic as well as the political upheaval that has taken place the past 2-3 years. This is evident in the fact that almost all major American cities have experienced a rise in crime in various areas. I think it will take some time for things to get back to where they were across the board.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by CaptainJilliams

I understand folks are far more concerned with homicides and violent crime, but for those trying to claim all crime is up and out of control in Chicago are just flat out wrong.

Robbery is considered a violent crime. I think that when people claim there's more people than ever being robbed, I have to roll my eyes. That's simply not true even if you go back 4 years ago (as highlighted) in most parts of the city.

The main issue is gun crimes for those violent crimes. While some are highlighting it, others are claiming it's more broad (with guns or without guns) which again as highlighted is simply not true. But there are more people being robbed with guns specifically, for example. But it's not the "worst ever" but it's the worst in a few areas it's been for awhile. Lincoln Park + Lake View + Lincoln Square + North Center for example in 2021 had the most violent crimes with a gun since 2004. But in terms of robbery with a gun in those areas, there was more in 2017 than there was in 2021, and 2018 was just a little below that of 2021. For this area, the issue is more aggravated assault/battery with a gun which is at levels not seen since the early 2000s.


The main theme/point is that the crime situation is way more nuanced than a lot of people even give a shit about looking into. It changes by area and by crime type within those areas. Some are the worst levels they've been in some of the north side areas (example) since early 2000s while other crime types are basically the same or lower than just 3 or 4 years ago. Those who say "crime is down" or "crime is up" with a general wide net are not looking deep enough into what's going on. But they will manipulate by not being consistent in how they report statistics to make people believe certain crimes are the worst ever.

[Tom In Chicago]

^Yeah. . . I think that's right. . . it's not that crime is up, just that it's much more visible in places that you wouldn't necessarily expect to see it. . .

Some people will disagree with me, but the Loop/downtown environs isn't a traditional neighborhood and shouldn't be treated as such. . . if this were any other city in Europe (for example) the local authorities would have come down much harsher on people causing trouble in the central areas where most of the tourists are. . . we've had many teenage mob scenes at Millennium Park and almost nightly street takeovers for the last two weeks in and around Columbus/Wacker, not to mention the guys riding on unlicenced 4 wheelers and minibikes up and down Randolph/Field. . .

For me it's a minor annoyance that we haven't had to deal with prior to the pandemic, but to people from out of town it's intimidating. . .

Maybe that's my point, I dunno. . .

. . .

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Tom In Chicago

^Yeah. . . I think that's right. . . it's not that crime is up, just that it's much more visible in places that you wouldn't necessarily expect to see it. . .

Yes and no. It is true that there has been some of this and a few notorious incidents that grab the news. Don't want to take away from those, but by and large things statistically for a lot of violent crime isn't really much different in some of these areas than the few years before the pandemic. The difference is downtown and shootings for the most part. There's been some bleed over too in some other areas for shootings as well and of course areas for carjackings. The news is basically regurgitating this stuff - carjackings for example have risen quite a bit although they still make up a pretty small percentage of overall robberies almost everywhere in the city.

There's no doubt those are much higher and at levels higher than we haven't seen downtown since the early 2000s. HOWEVER, downtown (Near North/West/South and the Loop) also has 100K more people in it now than it did around 2000. The levels of violent crimes with a gun is similar downtown to what it was in 2001 or 2002 in terms of raw numbers. But we need to remember that the population of this area is legitimately 100K larger now than it was back then so the rate is actually much lower today.


Certain types of crime is up in some areas, some types is down in other areas. Each areas may not have literally all crime that's up, or all that's down. Almost everywhere is a complete mixture. Really depends on what and where you're even talking about and compared to when.

We can take Lincoln Park for example. There are some people who claim that things are worse now than they've been. John Kass goes on to proclaim things bad and his friends are moving from there to Colorado. Statistically though it's really not any worse there now than it was even before the pandemic with a lot of the crime.

By full years:
- Homicide: 0 in 2021 vs. 3 in 2019 vs. 1 in 2018
- Shooting Victims: 20 in 2021 vs. 16 in 2019 vs. 3 in 2018
- Robbery: 102 in 2021 vs. 116 in 2019 vs. 166 in 2018
- Aggravated Assault/Battery: 72 in 2021 vs. 84 in 2019 vs. 85 in 2018
- Rape: 26 in 2021 vs. 21 in 2019 vs. 22 in 2018 (and 29 in 2017)

Thru 6/28:
- Homicide: 0 in 2022 vs. 3 in 2019 vs. 1 in 2018
- Shooting Victims (thru 7/3): 2 in 2022 vs. 6 in 2019 vs. 2 in 2018
- Robbery: 66 in 2022 vs. 57 in 2019 vs. 72 in 2018
- Aggravated Assault/Battery: 31 in 2022 vs. 37 in 2019 vs. 38 in 2018
- Rape: 10 in 2022 vs. 12 in 2019 vs. 10 in 2018


In this case not a ton is really different. A lot of this is still lower or not much higher than previous. The difference was the shooting victims - last year had that party bus near the gas station with 8 shot. That does count for a lot. But when we see reports that make us believe that there's more robbery there today than before the pandemic it's really not very true as you can see.


Now as far as downtown goes, let's just say Near North Side + Loop for this one:

By full years:
- Homicide: 11 in 2021 vs. 4 in 2019 vs. 10 in 2018
- Shooting Victims: 89 in 2021 vs. 34 in 2019 vs. 36 in 2018
- Robbery: 576 in 2021 vs. 674 in 2019 vs. 700 in 2018
- Aggravated Assault/Battery: 534 in 2021 vs. 586 in 2019 vs. 558 in 2018
- Rape: 180 in 2021 vs. 122 in 2019 vs. 139 in 2018

Shooting victims are really the thing that's way higher, and rape is a bit higher too. But in terms of things like robbery - no there's really not more people who got robbed last year there than before the pandemic and aggravated assault/battery was a little lower but within range.

The shooting stuff is out of hand though.


Thru 6/28:
- Homicide: 7 in 2022 vs. 4 in 2019 vs. 6 in 2018
- Shooting Victims (thru 7/3): 51 in 2022 vs. 23 in 2019 vs. 18 in 2018
- Robbery: 313 in 2022 vs. 283 in 2019 vs. 346 in 2018
- Aggravated Assault/Battery: 304 in 2022 vs. 281 in 2019 vs. 261 in 2018
- Rape: 84 in 2022 vs. 57 in 2019 vs. 61 in 2018

Similar to above but aggravated assault/battery is the highest in this time period since at least 2005 although we can see 2019 wasn't too far behind. Shooting victims is way up. Robbery isn't really any different than 2018 for example and homicides is similar to 2018. Rape is a bit higher.


I think this is more of the cause for concern basically areas like The Loop and River North have way more activity than previously. And that's not a good thing. But hopefully it starts to level out. But at the same time you can see areas like Lincoln Park aren't really any or much different for a lot of these crimes than before the pandemic. Some of the biggest decreases in violent crime were in the very high crime areas to begin with.



So in short, it's way more complex than people are writing about. To the point that most people probably wouldn't understand all the complexities by just reading it in a simple article, or they'd get bored from too many numbers. I do think there is truth to the downtown thing because of the shootings and gun violence. But at the same time, there's not really any more people getting robbed than before per se there, and for areas like Lincoln Park whose commenters are going to dominate social media - well you can see the data above what's going on. I think last year with shootings there was probably some cause for concern. Hopefully the rest of the year everywhere can continue to see shooting reductions. By and large the issue is mainly tied to gun violence across the city not necessarily "more people are getting robbed!" Regardless, more people getting shot downtown is a terrible thing even if less people are getting robbed. That has to stop and the mayor's office has been a failure with this.

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by marothisu

We can take Lincoln Park for example. There are some people who claim that things are worse now than they've been. John Kass goes on to proclaim things bad and his friends are moving from there to Colorado. Statistically though it's really not any worse there now than it was even before the pandemic with a lot of the crime.

By full years:
- Homicide: 0 in 2021 vs. 3 in 2019 vs. 1 in 2018
- Shooting Victims: 20 in 2021 vs. 16 in 2019 vs. 3 in 2018
- Robbery: 102 in 2021 vs. 116 in 2019 vs. 166 in 2018
- Aggravated Assault/Battery: 72 in 2021 vs. 84 in 2019 vs. 85 in 2018
- Rape: 26 in 2021 vs. 21 in 2019 vs. 22 in 2018 (and 29 in 2017)

Thru 6/28:
- Homicide: 0 in 2022 vs. 3 in 2019 vs. 1 in 2018
- Shooting Victims (thru 7/3): 2 in 2022 vs. 6 in 2019 vs. 2 in 2018
- Robbery: 66 in 2022 vs. 57 in 2019 vs. 72 in 2018
- Aggravated Assault/Battery: 31 in 2022 vs. 37 in 2019 vs. 38 in 2018
- Rape: 10 in 2022 vs. 12 in 2019 vs. 10 in 2018
.

thanks for this - is this data saying there have only been 2 shooting victims in Lincoln Park YTD? I find that incredibly hard to believe.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago

thanks for this - is this data saying there have only been 2 shooting victims in Lincoln Park YTD? I find that incredibly hard to believe.

Yes. Why is that hard to believe? That's within a normal range minus last year and the other year before. 1 of those was very highly publicized as it was terrible but there's only been 1 other shooting victim all year in the community area (6/21 at or near North Ave Beach). Most other major violent crimes in LP are basically at pre pandemic levels (a year or 2 before it) so far this year.

Here is shooting and homicide data up til 7/3 of this year. The shooting data goes back to 2010 but the homicide data goes back into the 90s:
https://data.cityofchicago.org/Public-Sa...s-of-Homicides-and-Non-Fa/gumc-mgzr/data


Maybe you were thinking of Lakeview? Shooting victims for Lakeview thru 7/3 of each year:
2022: 8
2021: 2 (there were 9 after this)
2020: 6
2019: 3
2018: 1
2017: 1
2016: 4 (there were 12 after this)
2015: 3
2014: 3
2013: 1
2012: 4
2011: 0


Lake View is one of the few places in that section of the north side that's had an uptick of robbery lately.

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Yes. Why is that hard to believe? That's within a normal range minus last year and the other year before. 1 of those was very highly publicized as it was terrible but there's only been 1 other shooting victim all year in the community area.

Most other major violent crimes in LP are basically at pre pandemic levels so far this year.

Mostly because I know both of the shooting off the top of my head, Obviously the guy on Webster a couple months ago, but then there was in the Zoo in early June, I know because I was running in the park early morning when the police were still there. That would mean no shootings Jan-April, just seems off to me, but maybe I'm thinking shots fired, and not necessarily someone getting hit.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago

Mostly because I know both of the shooting off the top of my head, Obviously the guy on Webster a couple months ago, but then there was in the Zoo in early June, I know because I was running in the park early morning when the police were still there. That would mean no shootings Jan-April, just seems off to me, but maybe I'm thinking shots fired, and not necessarily someone getting hit.

I keep editing this and confusing myself. Are you talking about this?
https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/man-shot-buttocks-sleeping-bench-lincoln-park

I thought this guy accidentally shot himself.. There may have been a few more "shots fired" without anyone hit but it's not a lot. As a resident of this area, any other source is going to be hit or miss. The other night around July 4th there were a few "shots fired" alerts on Citizen. They were fireworks.

People need to be careful about confusing "i literally hear of every crime and incident ever" with "things are the worst they've ever been" which in some areas people are completely doing.

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by marothisu

I keep editing this and confusing myself. Are you talking about this?
https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/man-shot-buttocks-sleeping-bench-lincoln-park

I thought this guy accidentally shot himself.. There may have been a few more "shots fired" without anyone hit but it's not a lot. As a resident of this area, any other source is going to be hit or miss. The other night around July 4th there were a few "shots fired" alerts on Citizen. They were fireworks.

People need to be careful about confusing "i literally hear of every crime and incident ever" with "things are the worst they've ever been" which in some areas people are completely doing.

Yeah I think that is the one, I just remember someone saying a guy was shot in the park, it's possible he shot himself. I totally hear what you are saying, things are not the worst they've been, but we live in a world where info is at your fingertip and the world is very polarizing, so that plays into the perception. I lived basically at Waveland and Southport which is a very safe part of the city, and even then, we were good for at least 2 shootings per year in the vicinity, with a couple very severe incidents peppered here and there. I do acknowledge that Lakeview is a bit worse than Lincoln Park in regards to shootings/violent crime, or at least I assume it would be.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago

Yeah I think that is the one, I just remember someone saying a guy was shot in the park, it's possible he shot himself. I totally hear what you are saying, things are not the worst they've been, but we live in a world where info is at your fingertip and the world is very polarizing, so that plays into the perception. I lived basically at Waveland and Southport which is a very safe part of the city, and even then, we were good for at least 2 shootings per year in the vicinity, with a couple very severe incidents peppered here and there. I do acknowledge that Lakeview is a bit worse than Lincoln Park in regards to shootings/violent crime, or at least I assume it would be.

Yes, perception means a lot and always has. But at the same time there are people manipulating us sometimes to make us believe things are worse than back to a certain time in these areas and I'm not talking about back 20 years ago. I'm talking about back even 3 years ago. I've seen a bit of inconsistency in reporting in a few outlets where they will report on one crime back to 2019 data but another one will be back to 2018 data. Well, the crime they report back to 2019 shows that it might be up. But if they showed 2018 data, they'd see it was flat or down compared to it which might defeat their agenda slightly.

This actually does a lot of harm. There are people who have been living in areas like Lincoln Park for 20 years who believe because they hear about everything ever that things are worse now than even a few years ago which for the most part isn't true. And definitely better than 20 years ago. Too many people are confusing "I never heard about anything 5 years ago" with social media being everywhere today and us knowing about everything. The data clearly shows otherwise for some of these areas that it's not worse than even right before or a little before the pandemic.


Lake View isn't dangerous or anything for a city, but it's not like it's been the absolute safest area either. Lincoln Park is a bit better, but let's just do the same thing for Lake View as we did for LP:


Yearly
Homicide: 2 in 2021 vs. 2 in 2019 vs. 2 in 2018
Robbery: 214 in 2021 vs. 159 in 2019 vs. 192 in 2018 (237 in 2017..)
Agg Assault/Battery: 153 in 2021 vs. 179 in 2019 vs 145 in 2018
Rape: 46 in 2021 vs. 61 in 2019 vs. 58 in 2018

Thru 6/30
Homicide: 1 in 2022 vs. 1 in 2019 vs. 1 in 2018
Robbery: 99 in 2022 vs. 69 in 2019 vs. 82 in 2018 (104 in 2017..)
Aggravated Assault/Battery: 77 in 2022 vs. 88 in 2019 vs. 61 in 2018
Rape: 26 in 2022 vs. 28 in 2019 vs. 28 in 2018

We noted shooting victims so far in 2022 are up in Lakeview. Robberies are too but they're also a little below but very similar to 2017 numbers. Aggravated assault/battery is lower in 2022 than 2019 there and rape is a little lower too (but basically the same). Homicides have remained unchanged.

[marothisu]

The shooting database is now showing the one near LP Zoo - 1800 N Stockton Dr from a month ago. So weird it wasn't there the other day. Maybe a blip.

[SIGSEGV]

I likely can't make this today, but this might be of interest to some: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/meet-the-mayoral-candidates-paul-vallas-tickets-376873016337 (sorry for late notice... it's like in 40 mins).

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

I likely can't make this today, but this might be of interest to some: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/meet-the-mayoral-candidates-paul-vallas-tickets-376873016337 (sorry for late notice... it's like in 40 mins).

You mean the guy who convinced Rahm to close down a bunch of schools in the South and West sides, putting more kids on the streets? That Paul Vallas?

No thanks. I don't think he has a real ticket. He's just regurgitating shit like everyone else about crime. Haven't heard a single solution from him yet.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by marothisu

You mean the guy who convinced Rahm to close down a bunch of schools in the South and West sides, putting more kids on the streets? That Paul Vallas?

No thanks. I don't think he has a real ticket. He's just regurgitating shit like everyone else about crime. Haven't heard a single solution from him yet.

Well Chicago Loop Neighbors is hosting many mayoral candidates. I think next week might be Kam Buckner.

[Randomguy34]

Ald. Michele Smith is retiring next month! This will be the third alderperson Lightfoot is appointing. This is also a week after Ald. Harry Osterman announced he won't run for next year's election

Patrick Thompson was indicted and replaced. Carrie Austin is no longer running after having the feds investigate her. Ed Burke will (eventually) be found guilty and replaced. Michael Scott was replaced by his sister Monique Scott. Cappleman and Osterman are calling it quits. George Cardenas is leaving for a seat in the Cook County Board of Review. Ald Sawyer and Lopez are running for mayor and will be forced to give up their seat. Now Michele Smith is leaving. I would call this chaotic, but with how corrupt city hall is, it feels more like order

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by Randomguy34

Ald. Michele Smith is retiring next month! This will be the third alderperson Lightfoot is appointing. This is also a week after Ald. Harry Osterman announced he won't run for next year's election

Patrick Thompson was indicted and replaced. Carrie Austin is no longer running after having the feds investigate her. Ed Burke will (eventually) be found guilty and replaced. Michael Scott was replaced by his sister Monique Scott. Cappleman and Osterman are calling it quits. George Cardenas is leaving for a seat in the Cook County Board of Review. Ald Sawyer and Lopez are running for mayor and will be forced to give up their seat. Now Michele Smith is leaving. I would call this chaotic, but with how corrupt city hall is, it feels more like order

It's a shame the socialist aldermen aren't leaving. We need less of them and more Ostermans and Capplemans.

[SIGSEGV]

If anybody wants to sign up for / watch mayoral candidate Kam Buckner speak , organized by Chicago Loop Neighbors, https://www.eventbrite.com/e/meet-the-mayoral-candidates-kam-buckner-tickets-377053054837
I might try to go, though not sure I'll be able to make it.

[Handro]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

It's a shame the socialist aldermen aren't leaving. We need less of them and more Ostermans and Capplemans.

Matt Martin might be the best alderman in the city.

[thegoatman]

Originally Posted by Handro

Matt Martin might be the best alderman in the city.

is he a socialist?